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Guest BBiebigheiser

Let's talk about the weather!

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Looking at the climate re-analyzer, today is only 0.2 C over the 1971-2000 average. It was only +0.1C yesterday. Almost negligible.

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

 

I suspect the thunderstorm had to do with a typical early fall cold front moving across the US more than global warming. Cincinnati just was in it's bullseye.

 

Yikes.  Storms aren't entirely based on the particular temperature at the moment in a particular location.  Storms are formed by weather patterns, jet streams, warm fronts, etc....  The science shows that storms in general are getting worse due to global warming.  While there can't be direct percentage based attribution to this particular storm, storms are and will continue to get worse.

 

I agree a higher heat content creates bigger storms. You also need a strong temperature gradient to mix cold and warm air, hence fall. There's a definite debate about whether storms are getting "worse". There's evidence in the US that storms produce more rainfall, but there is no real set of global data yet and the US is a small area of the globe.  It's being worked on though.

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What does any of this have to do with yesterday's WEATHER? Yesterday's global WEATHER wouldn't rank on this list. WEATHER.

 

You brought up 1971-2000 climate.

 

Because the re-analyzer takes today's weather and measures it to climate. The implication was that yesteraday's WEATHER was being caused by Global Warming. I thought this was the WEATHER thread anyway. We already have a Global Warming one.

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Looking at the climate re-analyzer, today is only 0.2 C over the 1971-2000 average. It was only +0.1C yesterday. Almost negligible.

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

 

I suspect the thunderstorm had to do with a typical early fall cold front moving across the US more than global warming. Cincinnati just was in it's bullseye.

 

Yikes.  Storms aren't entirely based on the particular temperature at the moment in a particular location.  Storms are formed by weather patterns, jet streams, warm fronts, etc....  The science shows that storms in general are getting worse due to global warming.  While there can't be direct percentage based attribution to this particular storm, storms are and will continue to get worse.

 

I agree a higher heat content creates bigger storms. You also need a strong temperature gradient to mix cold and warm air, hence fall. There's a definite debate about whether storms are getting "worse". There's evidence in the US that storms produce more rainfall, but there is no real set of global data and the US is a small area of the globe. 

 

Can you provide a link to some study that questions that storms aren't getting worse since you're saying this is a debatable argument?  Warmer air holds more water and it's well documented temperatures are getting hotter.  I've never read anywhere someone actually saying what you are implying.  I've read quite a few study briefs and every single one of them indicates storms are getting worse and will continue to do so.

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On the other side, I was talking to a co-worker from Mason (just north of Cincinnati) this morning and they got absolutely nothing.

 

I was in West Chester and nothing happened.  Not a drop. 

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Weather and climate are different.  However, as the climate warms there are more 90 degree days.  Science says a storm on a 90 degree day has more energy and can carry more water than a storm at 60 degrees.  If you Google "how much hotter is your hometown" you can access a database showing how many more 90 degree days Cincinnati has just in my lifetime and how the trend is likely to continue. 

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On the other side, I was talking to a co-worker from Mason (just north of Cincinnati) this morning and they got absolutely nothing.

 

I was in West Chester and nothing happened.  Not a drop. 

 

I've got a small rain gauge I use to determine if/how much I should water my vegetable garden. Just over 3 inches of rain yesterday, all in the course of an hour and fifteen minutes or so. It only measures up to 5 inches of precipitation - the post you made up thread about the August 16 storm caused it to overflow. That was a first.

 

On a related note, I've got a few extra pounds of hot peppers if anyone wants any. I've never had plants get this big this early in the year.

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Looking at the climate re-analyzer, today is only 0.2 C over the 1971-2000 average. It was only +0.1C yesterday. Almost negligible.

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

 

I suspect the thunderstorm had to do with a typical early fall cold front moving across the US more than global warming. Cincinnati just was in it's bullseye.

 

Yikes.  Storms aren't entirely based on the particular temperature at the moment in a particular location.  Storms are formed by weather patterns, jet streams, warm fronts, etc....  The science shows that storms in general are getting worse due to global warming.  While there can't be direct percentage based attribution to this particular storm, storms are and will continue to get worse.

 

I agree a higher heat content creates bigger storms. You also need a strong temperature gradient to mix cold and warm air, hence fall. There's a definite debate about whether storms are getting "worse". There's evidence in the US that storms produce more rainfall, but there is no real set of global data and the US is a small area of the globe. 

 

Can you provide a link to some study that questions that storms aren't getting worse since you're saying this is a debatable argument?  Warmer air holds more water and it's well documented temperatures are getting hotter.  I've never read anywhere someone actually saying what you are implying.  I've read quite a few study briefs and every single one of them indicates storms are getting worse and will continue to do so.

 

Uhh..it’s basic scientfic knowledge that there isn’t a marker yet between thunderstorm/hurricane intensity and global temperature increases from data we currently have

 

Here’s a link on storms:

 

https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-storms

 

From the report:

 

>>Other trends in severe storms, including tornadoes, hail, and thunderstorms, are still uncertain.<<

 

Pretty clear. I stand by what I originally said. It’s not misleading at all.

 

 

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Columbus just broke it's all time precipitation record from 2011 which was 54.96 inches. We are now over 55 inches for 2018.

 

Hell if it is going to rain as much as it has this year we might as well just get the record(and with just 6 hours left in the years too).

Edited by Toddguy

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On 12/31/2018 at 6:25 PM, Toddguy said:

Columbus just broke it's all time precipitation record from 2011 which was 54.96 inches. We are now over 55 inches for 2018.

 

Hell if it is going to rain as much as it has this year we might as well just get the record(and with just 6 hours left in the years too).

 

Cincinnati was also over 55 inches in 2018, third all-time. There are plenty of years in Cincinnati with near record rainfall amounts around 50-55 inches, however 2011 was a crazy outlier of over 73 inches:

 

https://www.weather.gov/iln/Top10_Pcpn_2018

 

 

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