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Cleveland: Population Trends

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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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Maybe this explains all those Steelers jerseys we see around here.  We're absorbing Pittsburgh's huddled masses yearning to be free.

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The latest, most interesting out-of-state license plate I've seen...

20190113_102356.jpg


"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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What are the source of those numbers? I'm a little confused by them. Have the areas covered by the CDCs changed between those time? If the physical land area hasn't changed, and the total population has decreased (ex Little Italy) how has the density increased?

 

Also, am I assuming that for the areas overlapping, such as Gateway and Downtown, the Gateway numbers are included in the Downtown numbers?

 

Edit: I was told the boundaries of the CDCs have changed between the two samples taken. In that case, it is misleading to compare population and density changes if the areas being measured are not the same. Still interesting to see the numbers of people represented, but the numbers should be taken with an asterisk.

Edited by PoshSteve

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For what it's worth:

 

My wife and I recently toured Cleveland Clinic Fairview Hospital maternity ward for our upcoming kiddo. 

 

Six couples were on the tour, and we had our group introductions.  Five of the six couples had relocated to the Cleveland area within the past 9 months -- no joke!  A couple were boomerangs (including us), but they were also returning with +1 or +2 or +3 back to the metro area.  And a few were completely new to the area.

 

The nurse even made a comment about how all her recent tours have been mostly newcomers...or something to that effect. 

 

----

 

We can probably put this in the same bucket as out-of-town license plates...but it seemed like too odd of an experience not to report back here.

Edited by MuRrAy HiLL
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@PoshSteve I'm interested in the source of that data as well, and I'm pretty sure the service area of the CDCs changed in 2014 (and I think census tracts/block groups changed from 2000 to 2010), so comparing the numbers for these areas could be very misleading.

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6 minutes ago, andrew0816 said:

@PoshSteve I'm interested in the source of that data as well, and I'm pretty sure the service area of the CDCs changed in 2014 (and I think census tracts/block groups changed from 2000 to 2010), so comparing the numbers for these areas could be very misleading.

 

Not sure how the CDCs, census tracts, and SPAs are all interconnected. but the city SPAs definitely changed from 2010 to 2014:

 

2010: http://planning.city.cleveland.oh.us/2010census/downloads/SPAs.pdf

2014: http://planning.city.cleveland.oh.us/2010census/downloads/All_SPAs_2014.pdf

 

2014 are the current SPA borders according to the city website.

Edited by MuRrAy HiLL

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@MuRrAy HiLL The city city aggregates census tracts into their SPAs.

 

And I looked at the tweet further and saw that he got his information from http://progressindexcle.org which is a data tool created by Cleveland Neighborhood Progress and the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development at Case Western Reserve University. Their website says that they use the city's SPAs and that "CDC service areas are defined by the City of Cleveland’s Department of  Community Development. Yearly, Cleveland Neighborhood Progress facilitates any updates or modifications to the service area  definitions."

 

But I still don't understand why there are options for DCA, Gateway, and Flats Forward as the service areas for some of those overlap either with each other or with the city's SPAs. And their mapping tool seems to be inaccurate. Their CDC map shows the Hough Development Corp including parts of Downtown and then doesn't show a service area for Downtown Cleveland Alliance (try this link to see what I mean). Also, the mapping tool had the 2006-2011 and 2011-2016 data sets but the population tool had data for 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. And the website has options for neighborhood level data and CDC level data, which might not align with each other since some CDCs have service areas that don't align with neighborhood boundaries.

 

As an example I'm going to look at Bellaire-Puritas:

  • Neighborhood Level
    • 2007-2011: 13,914
    • 2012-2016: 14,569
  • Bellaire Puritas Community Dev. Corp. (service area is larger than the Bellaire-Puritas neighborhood boundaries)
    • 2007-2011: 25,160
    • 2012-2016: 24,341
  • Trivisonno Post:
    • Same as the CDCs numbers, but he lists the dates as 2006-2011 and 2011-2016, maybe that's a typo?

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Speaking of being confused, I’ve seen various references to Cleveland’s metropolitan population, with one article sourced in the Forum saying that it had fallen to the 3rd largest in the state, behind Columbus and Cincy, which alarmed me. However, when including Akron- Canton in the metro, Cleveland is as high as the 14th or 15th biggest in the country. (See thoughtco.com)  What is most commonly considered the Cleveland Metropolitan area? 

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20 minutes ago, CleveFan said:

Speaking of being confused, I’ve seen various references to Cleveland’s metropolitan population, with one article sourced in the Forum saying that it had fallen to the 3rd largest in the state, behind Columbus and Cincy, which alarmed me. However, when including Akron- Canton in the metro, Cleveland is as high as the 14th or 15th biggest in the country. (See thoughtco.com)  What is most commonly considered the Cleveland Metropolitan area? 

 

According to the official US metro areas/definitions, Cleveland has fallen to 3rd place behind Cincinnati and Columbus. 

 

As of 2017

Cincinnati - 2,179,082 +3.05%

Columbus - 2,078,725 +9.29%

Cleveland - 2,058,844 −0.89%

 

I'm not here to get into a size war over City/MSA/CSA and what city is what and that whole can of worms, technically in terms of officially designated metros in for the 3C's, Cleveland is the 3rd largest. Do not shoot the messenger. 

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49 minutes ago, CleveFan said:

Speaking of being confused, I’ve seen various references to Cleveland’s metropolitan population, with one article sourced in the Forum saying that it had fallen to the 3rd largest in the state, behind Columbus and Cincy, which alarmed me. However, when including Akron- Canton in the metro, Cleveland is as high as the 14th or 15th biggest in the country. (See thoughtco.com)  What is most commonly considered the Cleveland Metropolitan area? 

 

Yeah it's pretty much how you want to look at it:

 

NEO has something like 4.5 million people.

 

Cleveland MSA is 2.1 million 

Cleveland CSA is 3.6 million

 

When you go by TV markets, Cleveland by far the largest in Ohio ranking at roughly 17th. 

 

https://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets

 

I've always thought it weird Cleveland can't count bordering counties in its MSA (Summit and Portage).cbsa17460.jpg

 

 

Edited by MuRrAy HiLL

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Can we leave this alone?  Not to be That Guy (again)... but there's a couple of things going on here that can't be ignored, as population growth follows job growth:

 

1)  Cleveland's regional population has been stagnate, at best, for going on 50 years.  Time stands still for no one, not even Cleveland.  Columbus and Cincinnati haven't had the same constraints economically as Cleveland and continued their growth trajectory.  Cleveland did not.

 

2)  Cleveland's economy for generations was centered on manufacturing, which began declining locally during the 60s.  

 

3)  Cleveland is JUST NOW beginning to see the fruits of transitioning away from manufacturing and into an Eds and Meds centered economy.  Though manufacturing will always be a cornerstone of Cleveland's economy, the region is not as dependent on it, which is a good thing.  Manufacturing is much more prone to contraction when the national and world economy contracts.

 

4)  Statistics point to the region growing economically and finally getting to the point were we could (if the next recession doesn't wipe away everything... and it won't since the region's restructured economy isn't based primarily on manufacturing) pass our 2002 employment numbers within the next year or so.  That's close to 20 years of trying to play catch-up while other regions haven't had the same issues.  

 

5)  Other regions do not have the same history as Cleveland's.  That will never change.  Cleveland's history is diverse, rich, and colorful and is something we can all be proud of REGARDLESS of which region is now the largest in the state.  Again, we've had to play catch-up due to how the region's economy was structured.  Cleveland is better positioned now more than at any time within a generation for growth now and in the future.

 

Maybe Cleveland will see some growth both in the city and the region as a whole during the next census, though that growth will be minimal due to just replacing the population that left.  Just traveling around town one can see the decline the region has faced.  We have a long way to go, but we'll get there.  

Edited by Oldmanladyluck
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Anecdotal story on Cleveland population: I have a friend who is one of those highly educated but insular Bostonians. While he is far more accomplished than me I'm way more traveled than him. "Why should I leave New England? It has everything I need." Anyway, he did manage to visit me awhile back and we hit all the usual CLE sites. I'll sum up his impression in two sentences. "Cleveland is different, more interesting than I expected." and "Where's all the people." Yeah, I think he nailed it. 

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That "where are all the people" sentiment is something I've heard about midwestern cities from Californians and people from the big East Coast cities pretty frequently. I had a friend who's an LA native who attended grad school at Wash U in St. Louis, and when I asked her how she liked the city she said "it's nice, there is some great architecture and the people tend to be friendly, but it feels so empty." I've been told similar things by people I've toured around Cincinnati. Great city, but where is everyone? Anymore, when I come home to Cincinnati, I increasingly feel the same way. It's odd to be driving at night (like 10 PM) and be one of the only cars on the street, even in dense or popular areas. 

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I personally believe boomerangs bring great potential as they hope to start a family. I'm currently in college at OU and I know one friend has a sibling in Brooklyn waiting to come back to Cleveland. She now has two kids and they're just waiting on Deloitte to transfer her husband's position. Also, I have some nursing friends from all over the country that specifically chose OU because of their partnership with Cleveland Clinic. Many want to work for CC when graduated and these are people from Connecticut, South Carolina, and Maryland!

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On ‎2‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 5:29 PM, edale said:

That "where are all the people" sentiment is something I've heard about midwestern cities from Californians and people from the big East Coast cities pretty frequently. I had a friend who's an LA native who attended grad school at Wash U in St. Louis, and when I asked her how she liked the city she said "it's nice, there is some great architecture and the people tend to be friendly, but it feels so empty." I've been told similar things by people I've toured around Cincinnati. Great city, but where is everyone? Anymore, when I come home to Cincinnati, I increasingly feel the same way. It's odd to be driving at night (like 10 PM) and be one of the only cars on the street, even in dense or popular areas. 

 

To be fair, only Chicago in the Midwest doesn't pretty much die after a certain time of night.  There are very few cities in the US that are like that- New York and LA being the only real others, with a few more cities having much smaller levels of 24-hour activity.  I've lived in a city of literally 22 million that had nearly 30,000 people for every square mile... for like 800 square miles.  Talk about making everything feel smaller. 

Edited by jonoh81

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Interesting map.  Would be helpful to see the exact net-migration numbers instead of those arbitrary buckets, and an income filter would be interesting too. 

 

Anecdotally, it partially lines up with what I've seen: after college, lots of people spend a few years in the "Big City" (NYC, Chicago, LA, DC, Boston, etc.) before moving elsewhere to settle.   Now I've also seen a lot of those people boomerang to Cleveland, but perhaps it's not enough to make up for outflow to sun belt and tech hubs. 

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1 hour ago, ML11 said:

Interesting map.  Would be helpful to see the exact net-migration numbers instead of those arbitrary buckets, and an income filter would be interesting too. 

 

Anecdotally, it partially lines up with what I've seen: after college, lots of people spend a few years in the "Big City" (NYC, Chicago, LA, DC, Boston, etc.) before moving elsewhere to settle.   Now I've also seen a lot of those people boomerang to Cleveland, but perhaps it's not enough to make up for outflow to sun belt and tech hubs. 

 

The sources article dives a bit more in to the numbers but nested within the article are download links to the full tables.

 

Article Link

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-migration-of-millennials-and-seniors-has-shifted-since-the-great-recession/

 

A quick glance and it breaks down as follows:

Focusing on the Midwest, the amount of Millennials gained or lost from 2012 - 2017 

 

Columbus +4,682 (Largest Gain)

Minneapolis +4,168

Kansas City +2,621

Indianpolis +2,569

Detroit +1,521

Cincinnati +1,143

Louisville -17

St Louis -92

Cleveland -1,021

Milwaukee -2,213

Chicago -13,757 (Largest Drop)

 

The tables also go into the percentage gained or lost that are college grads as well. It's also interesting that the article highlights that Ohio

overall has a net loss of -3,318 millennials over that time period. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, DevolsDance said:

 

The sources article dives a bit more in to the numbers but nested within the article are download links to the full tables.

 

Article Link

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-migration-of-millennials-and-seniors-has-shifted-since-the-great-recession/

 

A quick glance and it breaks down as follows:

Focusing on the Midwest, the amount of Millennials gained or lost from 2012 - 2017 

 

Columbus +4,682 (Largest Gain)

Minneapolis +4,168

Kansas City +2,621

Indianpolis +2,569

Detroit +1,521

Cincinnati +1,143

Louisville -17

St Louis -92

Cleveland -1,021

Milwaukee -2,213

Chicago -13,757 (Largest Drop)

 

The tables also go into the percentage gained or lost that are college grads as well. It's also interesting that the article highlights that Ohio

overall has a net loss of -3,318 millennials over that time period. 

 

 

Note that those are annual figures, not total.

 

Strange to see Chicago losing 13,757 per year. The homers over on Skyscraperpage will assure you that Chicago is losing population overall, but it's because baby boomers are leaving and being replaced by fewer millennials and/or college educated young people. And that that is actually good for them.

 

Their tax and pension problems are really starting to come to a head, and I feel the three Cs can capitalize.

 

Looks like Cleveland is starting to turn things around, with Cinci doing well and Columbus way ahead of its peers here. But man, Akron-Canton, Youngstown, Dayton, and Toledo must really be losing their young people for Ohio to be losing that many per year when the three Cs combine to gain 4,804 per year. That means the other big cities and rural Ohio are combining to lose 8,122 millennials every year outside of Ohio. Ouch!

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7 minutes ago, aderwent said:

Note that those are annual figures, not total.

 

Strange to see Chicago losing 13,757 per year. The homers over on Skyscraperpage will assure you that Chicago is losing population overall, but it's because baby boomers are leaving and being replaced by fewer millennials and/or college educated young people. And that that is actually good for them.

 

Their tax and pension problems are really starting to come to a head, and I feel the three Cs can capitalize.

 

Looks like Cleveland is starting to turn things around, with Cinci doing well and Columbus way ahead of its peers here. But man, Akron-Canton, Youngstown, Dayton, and Toledo must really be losing their young people for Ohio to be losing that many per year when the three Cs combine to gain 4,804 per year. That means the other big cities and rural Ohio are combining to lose 8,122 millennials every year outside of Ohio. Ouch!

 

I haven't looked into Chicago's numbers too deeply, but I do know that all racial groups are growing in the city except non-Hispanic blacks, who are leaving at a greater rate than all others moving into the city combined.  Not sure about age groups. 

 

As for Ohio losing younger people,  it's part of the general trend of rural America dying, I think.  The cities in the state doing relatively well are seeing growth, but the rest isn't.  Columbus and Cincinnati can only capture so many on their own.

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11 minutes ago, aderwent said:

Note that those are annual figures, not total.

 

Strange to see Chicago losing 13,757 per year. The homers over on Skyscraperpage will assure you that Chicago is losing population overall, but it's because baby boomers are leaving and being replaced by fewer millennials and/or college educated young people. And that that is actually good for them.

 

Their tax and pension problems are really starting to come to a head, and I feel the three Cs can capitalize.

 

Looks like Cleveland is starting to turn things around, with Cinci doing well and Columbus way ahead of its peers here. But man, Akron-Canton, Youngstown, Dayton, and Toledo must really be losing their young people for Ohio to be losing that many per year when the three Cs combine to gain 4,804 per year. That means the other big cities and rural Ohio are combining to lose 8,122 millennials every year outside of Ohio. Ouch!

 

Nah, the dudes over on SSP will assure you the Chicago is losing population overall, but it's just poor black people, so no cause for alarm. They're seriously messed up over there.

 

Without seeing year over year data, it's hard for me to accept that Cleveland is starting to turn things around in regard to millennial retention when they lost over 1,000 in a year. Based on these numbers, one could make the case that Louisville and St. Louis are starting to turn things around, but a loss of 1,000 young people is still pretty bad. 

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17 minutes ago, edale said:

 

Nah, the dudes over on SSP will assure you the Chicago is losing population overall, but it's just poor black people, so no cause for alarm. They're seriously messed up over there.

 

Without seeing year over year data, it's hard for me to accept that Cleveland is starting to turn things around in regard to millennial retention when they lost over 1,000 in a year. Based on these numbers, one could make the case that Louisville and St. Louis are starting to turn things around, but a loss of 1,000 young people is still pretty bad. 

 

Well, to be fair, they're right in that the city did only lose that one racial demographic, but it's definitely a problem. 

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41 minutes ago, edale said:

 

Nah, the dudes over on SSP will assure you the Chicago is losing population overall, but it's just poor black people, so no cause for alarm. They're seriously messed up over there.

 

Without seeing year over year data, it's hard for me to accept that Cleveland is starting to turn things around in regard to millennial retention when they lost over 1,000 in a year. Based on these numbers, one could make the case that Louisville and St. Louis are starting to turn things around, but a loss of 1,000 young people is still pretty bad. 

 

That's 1,000 over 5 years.

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34 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Well, to be fair, they're right in that the city did only lose that one racial demographic, but it's definitely a problem. 

I can see that for the city of Chicago, but these are metro numbers.

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Plus, this data set ends with 2017. I didn't start noticing a rise in the number of out-of-state license plates in Cleveland (west side and Lakewood) until about mid-2017. Since then, it's become a joke in my family -- e.g. "oh look, another New York car..."


"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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I have to wonder how much 2016 changed perceptions of Cleveland to the younger population. Since that study Cleveland's economy began to turn a corner and hasn't slowed down. I would like to see this study again, maybe for 2017-2022.

Edited by Oldmanladyluck
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5 minutes ago, Oldmanladyluck said:

I have to wonder how much 2016 changed perceptions of Cleveland to the younger population. Since that study Cleveland's economy began to turn a corner and hasn't slowed down. I would like to see this study again, maybe for 2017-2022.

I would assume the 5 years prior to the data in this report showed a faster decline of population in the Cleveland MSA.  If so, the numbers are trending the right way. 

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On 2/5/2019 at 9:45 PM, jonoh81 said:

 

To be fair, only Chicago in the Midwest doesn't pretty much die after a certain time of night.  There are very few cities in the US that are like that- New York and LA being the only real others, with a few more cities having much smaller levels of 24-hour activity.  I've lived in a city of literally 22 million that had nearly 30,000 people for every square mile... for like 800 square miles.  Talk about making everything feel smaller. 

 

Have to rep for my favorite city and second home, Philly, here. Center City Philly is the second most populated downtown in the country behind NYC and the streets are crowded around the clock. Most people overlook it but visit and you'll see it is more vibrant than Chicago or LA. 

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I wouldn't say Center City Philadelphia is "crowded around the clock" (and this is coming from a huge Philadephia fan who's been exploring that city for nearly 20 years now [YIKES!!!]) but it is certainly a Top 5 vibrant downtowns in the country.  Keep in mind, that Center City Philadelphia number includes all the way to South Street, primarily a residential rowhouse neighborhood that would be like adding Greenwich Village to Lower Manhattan or, more locally, Mt. Adams and OTR to Cincinnati's CBD.  Los Angeles has surprisingly vibrant sections of downtown (Santee Alley/Fashion District, Old Downtown, etc) and Chicago north of the river is arguably the country's second most "vibrant" core.

 

With all that said, I'm surprised by Louisville showing a (small) negative number.  It seems relatively health, hipster-focused, and the primate city for Kentucky.  Though I'm willing to bet Lexington (without looking at stats) is probably more millennial-focused for the state and may take away from Louisville's numbers.

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"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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39 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

I wouldn't say Center City Philadelphia is "crowded around the clock" (and this is coming from a huge Philadephia fan who's been exploring that city for nearly 20 years now [YIKES!!!]) but it is certainly a Top 5 vibrant downtowns in the country.  Keep in mind, that Center City Philadelphia number includes all the way to South Street, primarily a residential rowhouse neighborhood that would be like adding Greenwich Village to Lower Manhattan or, more locally, Mt. Adams and OTR to Cincinnati's CBD.  Los Angeles has surprisingly vibrant sections of downtown (Santee Alley/Fashion District, Old Downtown, etc) and Chicago north of the river is arguably the country's second most "vibrant" core.

 

With all that said, I'm surprised by Louisville showing a (small) negative number.  It seems relatively health, hipster-focused, and the primate city for Kentucky.  Though I'm willing to bet Lexington (without looking at stats) is probably more millennial-focused for the state and may take away from Louisville's numbers.

 

Ehhh, don't want to turn this into an argument about Philly, but I lived in Center City for years and still visit often so I know it well. It wasn't crowded around the clock 20 years ago sure, but now the density is astounding. And most of Center City is a filled rowhouses, but South Street is not primarily rowhouse or residential. It's a mixed use commercial street. Either way, I'm not sure why having rowhouses would negate its status as downtown. They're an incredibly dense housing type, more dense than typical American highrise neighborhoods which devote tons of space to parking garages. And the source I cited for it being the second most populous is the Census Bureau report about growth in downtowns and does include Mt. Adams and OTR in Cincinnati's "downtown" definition (plus a good chunk of Covington and Newport) and Greenwich Village (and the East Village) in Lower Manhattan's. 

 

Anyway, Philly is awesome and I'd be really happy if Cincy, Cbus, and Cleveland modeled their growth trajectories in their urban cores around what Philly has done. 

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Just a quick point.  I wasn't trying to say having rowhouses in a downtown somehow negates it being a downtown; my bigger point about Center City Philadelphia is how generous it's definition of a downtown encompasses smaller (mostly) rowhouse neighborhoods such as Fitler Square or Society Hill that normally other cities would separate from downtown stats.  One really can't use "second most populated downtown" when every downtown's definition varies.  Toronto uses Cabbagetown (!!!) as part of their downtown numbers.  Meanwhile, Montreal separates Vieux-Montréal and Chinatown, both of which are clearly more "downtown" than Cabbagetown is to Toronto.  I hope you understand the point.

 

And I agree, Philadelphia is awesome but ironically I see a lot of issues in Philadelphia that I also see in Cincinnati, noticeably the Negadelphians and holding-back provincialism.  But thank God they cleaned up Temple...I have some stories about THAT jawn in the early 2000s...


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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So the Gold Coast one block north of me has increased in density by 443 percent to 755 percent to 40,000+ people per square mile...

Edited by KJP

"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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On 2/12/2019 at 11:26 PM, ColDayMan said:

Just a quick point.  I wasn't trying to say having rowhouses in a downtown somehow negates it being a downtown; my bigger point about Center City Philadelphia is how generous it's definition of a downtown encompasses smaller (mostly) rowhouse neighborhoods such as Fitler Square or Society Hill that normally other cities would separate from downtown stats.  One really can't use "second most populated downtown" when every downtown's definition varies.  Toronto uses Cabbagetown (!!!) as part of their downtown numbers.  Meanwhile, Montreal separates Vieux-Montréal and Chinatown, both of which are clearly more "downtown" than Cabbagetown is to Toronto.  I hope you understand the point.

 

And I agree, Philadelphia is awesome but ironically I see a lot of issues in Philadelphia that I also see in Cincinnati, noticeably the Negadelphians and holding-back provincialism.  But thank God they cleaned up Temple...I have some stories about THAT jawn in the early 2000s...

 

 

i wonder how far back the definition of center city goes and if the boundaries have ever changed? 

 

to me it fits fine, its only 2sq miles, but it certainly seems generous given there are distinct neighborhoods in it.

 

then again, probably everywhere is like that. for example, lower manhattan has wtc, tribeca, seaport, etc., too.

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