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Cleveland: Population Trends

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5 minutes ago, Dougal said:

I was hopeful that when construction numbers began consistently exceeding tear-downs the population would turn around.  BUT ... tear-downs are not the same as abandonments, which are still high. Factor in declining family size, and the recent growth in OC, UC, and downtown still doesn't equal net growth.

 

For now, I think the region needs to be happy with the outcome of the demographic churn accompanying a near static population: a more educated, higher-earing, younger population is driving the recent regional economic improvements.

Agreed. But it's not just those neighborhoods anymore. You have apartment projects and townhome projects in Hough, Glenville, Fairfax, UC, Little Italy, and even Larchmere. Some of those projects are big and will help defray losses in those neighborhoods. 

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We'd be seeing the city-wide growth even sooner, or it could be happening already, if there wasn't such an enormous level of disparity between opportunities for people in different parts of the metro area.  As a city we are paying the price of decades of segregation and racism.  A lot of the growth in the near-west, UC, downtown, etc. is people who benefited and are now moving back into the city (children of suburban families, downsizers, or people moving back to the city in their 30s from other metros).  This sort of trend is going to help broaden the tax base in the city, improve the schools, improve infrastructure, and encourage investment city-wide, and I think we are starting to see more of the broader growth spread into those areas and for benefits of investment to be felt city-wide, but it takes time to fix decades of purposeful neglect.

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2 minutes ago, KFM44107 said:

Agreed. But it's not just those neighborhoods anymore. You have apartment projects and townhome projects in Hough, Glenville, Fairfax, UC, Little Italy, and even Larchmere. Some of those projects are big and will help defray losses in those neighborhoods. 

 

You're absolutely right and I think Hough will be the next hot spot.  I just didn't want a long list to take away from my point that the demographic 'quality' gains are enough for now to cause a huge economic gain for the area (while hoping that the virus disruption is fleeting). 

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There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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^ Yes, while the population remains stagnant that doesn't take into account the fact that the numbers are churning and the churn is replacing a poorer group with a wealthier group. Say what you will about economic displacement/gentrification but in one of the poorer cities in the US those changes benefit the city in a number of ways i.e. more tax dollars to the city, more $ spent locally, probably greater citizen participation in the neighborhood. 

 

And as a card carrying liberal I will say the new residents add to diversity because the old CLE had a greater percentage of minorities as well as poorer people. Diversity is good. Economic diversity is good. So is Ethnographic diversity. We need it all. New energy, new ideas, new life and yes, new money too. 

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Another important thing in this discussion is that the average size household is still declining.  There could be more overall households and still less overall people.  I think this is one of the biggest factors in there still being a population decline.  

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I just mentioned this in the Ohio population thread, but Ohio City and Tremont have not been exploding in population in recent years except perhaps the last two or three. The decline in household size hadn't been offset enough by new units. One or two person households of high earners moving in and replacing a working class nuclear family or multi-generational home, while good for the city budget are not good in the census numbers. I think only now with the explosion in multi-family construction in those neighborhoods will be be seeing true growth. Downtown and UC have exploded in population because there has been pretty much nothing but new multi family construction. I imagine Little Italy has been similar to the near west side with chopped up 4 unit houses being rehabbed into SFHs.

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On 5/22/2020 at 2:15 PM, PoshSteve said:

I just mentioned this in the Ohio population thread, but Ohio City and Tremont have not been exploding in population in recent years except perhaps the last two or three. The decline in household size hadn't been offset enough by new units. One or two person households of high earners moving in and replacing a working class nuclear family or multi-generational home, while good for the city budget are not good in the census numbers. I think only now with the explosion in multi-family construction in those neighborhoods will be be seeing true growth. Downtown and UC have exploded in population because there has been pretty much nothing but new multi family construction. I imagine Little Italy has been similar to the near west side with chopped up 4 unit houses being rehabbed into SFHs.

Ya. That type of density is what it's going to take to move the population needle. However the per capita income is definitely up. 

Edited by KFM44107
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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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1 hour ago, KJP said:

 

Seems to me there’s a big gap in that analysis, namely it doesn’t look at tracts that were between 20% and 30% poverty and are no longer in that range. If you look even at the east coast cities there aren’t a lot of tracts that met the narrow definition. Maybe 8 tracts in DC, a few less in Baltimore, and only 1 in Pittsburgh.

 

Edit: Also seems arbitrary to pick 1980 as a baseline. Lots of the tracts on the west side increased their poverty rates from 1980-2020 but have declined since 2010 or even 2000 according to their data.

Edited by bumsquare
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Sometimes a study can take too long a of a view.  Looking at 2000-2020 would be more illuminating than 1980-2020 because the declines of the 80's and 90's were catastrophic across so much of the city.

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The High Poverty Map is cool, but I'm not sure what useful story it tells. If you look at Cleveland in isolation it looks bad, but if you compare to most other cities, you simply realize that most cities have not reduced poverty since 1980 in a way that would show up on this map. Cleveland at least has a few "blue" areas. Nashville doesn't even have any! Nashville! Neither does Phoenix! So I'm not sure what the map has to do with population or economic growth other than perhaps to suggest the U.S. as a whole is doing a poor job of raising people in urban areas out of poverty.

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https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm

 

BLS data shows Cleveland-Elyria labor force way up in May. In fact, it appears to be the largest monthly labor force increase on record (back to 1990). It obviously also comes on the heels of a massive labor force loss, but it's good to see a quick, complete rebound.

 

The total number is also the highest May labor force since 2010 other than 2017, which barely eeks out May 2020. Not sure what you can read into all these numbers, but they strike me as more positive than negative.

 

On a negative note (but one less closely related to population trends), unemployment is well above the national average.

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Its a good sign the total non-farm jobs numbers is increasing too. Not a huge amount, but May was only a partially "open" month. If we see a big jump when June comes out, hopefully back over 1M, I think we can say the economy here is making a good bounce back. Pretty interesting the labor force is increasing, especially at this time. Potentially some good news when it comes to population.

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The economic consequences are just beginning, especially with the virus still raging.  Not all of the regained jobs are going to stick around if the economy wallows in the uncertainty of the virus and other issues. People stopped going out back February and early March before any restrictions even existed, and they've not fully returned to normal behavior even without them.  It remains to be seen what the long-term consequences of all this are, but it's far, far too early to be thinking this was a few-month blip.

Edited by jonoh81

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1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

The economic consequences are just beginning, especially with the virus still raging.  Not all of the regained jobs are going to stick around if the economy wallows in the uncertainty of the virus and other issues. People stopped going out back February and early March before any restrictions even existed, and they've not fully returned to normal behavior even without them.

 

All people? My family has returned to its normal dining out routine. And most of the restaurants we go to are pretty full, although the seating is modified somewhat to account for social distancing/booth separators/etc with lines of people waiting out the door.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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I'd post this in the Cleveland Downtown Residences discussion but it's locked. So this is probably the next-best place....

 

4 hours ago, KJP said:

 

We've become spoiled in Cleveland and in other cities. Until the 2010s, big new apartment buildings were considered a success if they leased out in two years. Now, after the 2010s, we expect them to lease out in the first year. If the Beacon or (as it relates to this thread) the Lumen don't lease out after two years, then I'll be worried. And if a project already has its financing (such as City Club and a couple of others), I suspect that most of those projects will still go forward. Most of the jobs losses that have occurred so far aren't structural (they're pandemic related) and most of the job additions we've seen in recent months are structural.

 

3 hours ago, gg707 said:

 

That's a good perspective.  Hopefully future financings of buildings use the 2 year horizon and not the 1 year.

 

I worry about more fragile urban housing markets, such as Cleveland, in this downturn.

 

What's also interesting is that some of the non-downtown residential projects are doing pretty well and leasing up at healthy rates, such as Church & State. For that reason, the Nautica/Hingetown projects are still cooking. And the folks building Intro aren't worried. Plus the folks at Stoneleigh seeking to build their project just east of Intro along Lorain are still pressing ahead. Downtown is a different animal and seems to run more on a boom/bust cycle. No Cleveland neighborhood has grown as fast as downtown over an extended period since the southwestern part of West Park/Kamms boomed into the 1960s.

 

There are still some downtown projects about to pop, although they are going after a different market than anything we've seen thus far.

Edited by KJP
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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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On 6/19/2020 at 8:04 PM, KJP said:

 

All people? My family has returned to its normal dining out routine. And most of the restaurants we go to are pretty full, although the seating is modified somewhat to account for social distancing/booth separators/etc with lines of people waiting out the door.

What’s killing downtown is the lack of big events to draw in larger crowds.  

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The activity that makes downtown really vibrant -- lots of busy offices, sporting events, playhouse square, busy bars -- is different than the things driving development in some of the inner neighborhoods, so I can see how Hingetown is doing great, but downtown buildings are hurting right now.  Much of the activity in Ohio City is based on services supporting residents, which can stay above water a little better. If I was renting a unit, I'd certainly rather be in Hingetown than in downtown right now.  I love downtown, but it feels very dead because of COVID.

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At this very moment, downtowns in most major American cities are deserted.

 

Until people in this country stop their childish, selfish, "muh freedom" antics, accept the fact that we are in the midst of a global pandemic, and begin to follow public health official recommendations of social distancing/public mask wearing, our economy and that of our CBDs will never fully recover.

 

Even the EU recognizes the risks that US citizens pose on their continent.

 

Edited by Frmr CLEder
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2 hours ago, KJP said:

 

There are still some downtown projects about pop, although they are going after a different market than anything we've seen thus far.

Hmmm... different than what we've see. Condos? Or Are you referring to the micro units proposed in City Club and Kenect? Or something else entirely? I can't think of any other types we haven't seen built recently. 

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To add to the observational, anecdotal license plate data, the near east suburbs (CLE Hts, S Euclid, Univ Hts, etc) have been just crawling with out-of-state plates for the last couple weeks in a way they never have been in my memory (which admittedly only goes back a few years). Lots of New York and Illinois, but you could play the license plate game because they’re from all over. I’ve seen ones you don’t expect to see like Idaho, Arkansas, and New Hampshire. Not sure that any of this is meaningful; just consider it my contribution to the quasi-data garbage heap.

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1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

To add to the observational, anecdotal license plate data, the near east suburbs (CLE Hts, S Euclid, Univ Hts, etc) have been just crawling with out-of-state plates for the last couple weeks in a way they never have been in my memory (which admittedly only goes back a few years). Lots of New York and Illinois, but you could play the license plate game because they’re from all over. I’ve seen ones you don’t expect to see like Idaho, Arkansas, and New Hampshire. Not sure that any of this is meaningful; just consider it my contribution to the quasi-data garbage heap.

Seen so many New York license plates in this area as well.  

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Saw Nebraska and Iowa plates downtown over the weekend. That was unusual. Black families in both cars. Are there many blacks in those states? And yes, the usual numbers of East Coast cars lately. Although when I see New York cars, they usually have license plate frames indicating dealerships near Buffalo. In the past week I've seen license plate frames for New York City-area dealerships.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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On 5/28/2020 at 10:59 AM, KJP said:

 

 

I'm not buying Mr. Welling's "deepening and expansion of poverty" claim. He's only looking at rates, which have bounced around.  If you pull actual numbers, the number of people in Cleveland and in poverty has remained pretty close to 130,000 since 2008.  In the 2019 estimate, it's 34.6% of 377K or 130K still.  The real story is the better-off people moved out, not that the numbers of poor grew. The corollary is nobody has been able to do much about that 130K.

 

Since 2006:

cleveland-poverty-numberspng-7b69a359a10

 

 

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There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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