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Cleveland: Population Trends

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4 minutes ago, Terdolph said:

It equates to more income taxes that could potentially be spent on benefits for the less fortunate.

 

Who could be against that?

 

Im all for that, but what I dont like or agree with is that each person that moves is a better citizen, outside of financial status, then someone else.

 

Now having said that, with tax loopholes, you never know what a person is paying for their home or their income.  

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Just now, Terdolph said:

We assume that they are working in a city that has an income tax.

 

So, inherently if the person moving in has a higher income than the person moving out how can you say that might not be a benefit?

They may not be a good citizen.

 

Just because a person make more money that does not translate into a person who involved in the community.

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meh, cle doesn't need good persons, poor persons, wealthy persons, etc..

 

it just needs persons. 

 

and it looks likes its getting them at last and people have been staying.

 

that is, if around 1700 loss is really true.

 

remember 30k losses per year used to happen.

 

so by any measure the bottom has been reached and the reversal is in effect.

 

that is very good news.

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48 minutes ago, Terdolph said:

I'm out. 

 

You just don't want to get it.

 

It is not elitist. 

 

Poor people need rich people or the whole thing doesn't work.

 

 

 

So you need me?

told you so i give up GIF

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^ for sure cle could use a few gay, former crackhead hooker bazillionaire tv personalities.

 

geraldo is kind of a poor man's version vs king-maker oprah, but he's a pretty good get.

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18 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

^ for sure cle could use a few gay, former crackhead hooker bazillionaire tv personalities.

 

geraldo is kind of a poor man's version vs king-maker oprah, but he's a pretty good get.

True but Geraldo doesn't live in Cleveland proper.

 

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1 minute ago, MyTwoSense said:

True but Geraldo doesn't live in Cleveland proper.

 

 

True, but he does spend a lot of time and $$$ in Cleveland proper.

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2 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

True, but he does spend a lot of time and $$$ in Cleveland proper.

Please give examples or a source.  Not trying to be an ass, but that is easy to write without any context.

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^ That's why I said "one out of many". He's at the Harbor Inn every Wednesday afternoon. If you're so concerned about how he spends his time and money in the city, go ask him. 

Edited by Clefan98
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Just now, mrnyc said:

ummm....we've already discussed this "example".

 

Keep up, Boo.

 

31 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

^ That's why I said "one out of many". He's at the Harbor Inn every Wednesday afternoon. If you're so concerned about how he spends his time and money in the city, go ask him. 

I'm not concerned, I Yes I could walk over to his crib and ask.

 

Again, my intent was to gain context, on your posts, not dispute how you feel.

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22 minutes ago, MyTwoSense said:

ummm....we've already discussed this "example".

 

Keep up, Boo.

 

I'm not concerned, I Yes I could walk over to his crib and ask.

 

Again, my intent was to gain context, on your posts, not dispute how you feel.

 

I never posted how I felt about Geraldo. I just said he spends time and money in Cleveland proper. Nothing more, nothing less should be taken from my comments.

Edited by Clefan98
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22 hours ago, mrnyc said:

 

edit: dubz!

 

22 hours ago, MyTwoSense said:

ummm....we've already discussed this "example".

 

Keep up, Boo.

 

 

 

i was -- lo ves papi chulo -- doan let me cash you cherry pickin posts!

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New Diversity study out looking at US cities, comparing 2010 and 2018. Most cities, Cleveland included, have become more diverse.  Interestingly Dallas, Houston, Miami, LA, and Chicago are LESS diverse than before.

 

"In 2010, there was a 61.9% chance that two people randomly chosen from Cleveland were of a different race or ethnicity."

"In 2018, there was a 67.1% chance that two people randomly chosen from Cleveland were of a different race or ethnicity." 

 

Philly for comparison:

In 2010, there was a 68.0% chance that two people randomly chosen from Philadelphia were of a different race or ethnicity.

In 2018, there was a 71.0% chance that two people randomly chosen from Philadelphia were of a different race or ethnicity. 

 

Back to Cleveland:

From 2010 to 2018, the diversity index in Cleveland grew by 5.21%.
 
Change in Population by Race and Ethnic Group
White 7.0%

Black -14.1%

Asian 57.0%

American Indian 48.3%

Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 107.5%

Other Race -37.8%

Multiple Races 74.7%

Hispanic 19.2%

Non-Hispanic -5.8%

 

According to them, we doubled our population of Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders.

 

Nice interactive, graphic map:

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2020-01-22/americas-cities-are-becoming-more-diverse-new-analysis-shows

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57% increase in Asian population in the city in 8 years?  I know it wasn't starting from a big number, but that's a huge increase.  Also notable that Cleveland was near the top of the list for cities that have become more diverse in this time frame.  

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^Maybe 57%. Note that their data is based on US Census Bureau numbers, which for 2018 are only estimates. But I think there is definitely an increase of some amount---I've noticed more Indians around CSU---and perhaps more east Asians in and around Asiatown.

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The losses in the Black population is the reason why the city will not grow in any substantial way in the foreseeable future. I truly don't see (as someone that lives on the East side in the predominantly black neighborhoods) making a true effort to slow it. Circle North is not it btw. 

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Speaking of growth though. According to this chart, Cleveland has only been shrinking for 5-6 years 🙃🙃.

Screenshot_20200128-112520.png

Edited by MyPhoneDead
I forgot the chart lol

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KJP, Idk what estimates you have been looking at, but Cleveland proper population continues to decrease by an average of about 1000 residents each year, so the city is still shrinking. I realize college educated people are moving into some neighborhoods in Cleveland proper, but besides downtown, Ohio City and Tremont continue to experience a net migration loss this decade. And it does not offset the population loss in the rest of Cleveland proper and now the inner ring suburbs and Cuyahoga County. The exurbs in Geauga, Medina, Lorain, and Lake counties continue to increase at a rate greater than Cuyahoga. The wealth of the residents moving in doesn't predict if attendance will go up. We need density in the city and inner ring suburbs, except that density is decreasing each year.

 

This is not sustainable for a city with 3 teams. Everyone in sports media knows this and has been predicting a team will leave the last 5 years. Unfortunately, the Indians are the likely one out based on attendance and fan following in this city.

 

@AsDustinFoxWouldSay I'm basing it the insights of the region's most learned housing and population, Tom Bier, who is paying attention to the Fifth Migration and who I quoted in my article at:

 

Cleveland ended the decade with a boom, and it's showing

https://neo-trans.blogspot.com/2019/12/cleveland-got-lot-wealthier-in-just-3.html

 

Specifically, Bier said: "People will continue to move out -- which is normal, just as people move from suburb to suburb -- but probably within a few years movers-in will exceed movers-out," Bier wrote. "Then, after 70 years of loss, the corner finally will have been turned as growth takes hold."

 

Probably because the information didn't serve your needs, you also overlooked my comment in the Progressive Field thread that Cleveland's wealth has increased significantly in the last four years even as Cleveland's population has slightly decreased. I noted those statistics in my article as well.

 

With past generations, the increased wealth would likely have been more important to the success of local professional sports teams. But that may not be the case with young professionals who seem less willing to attend games than older generations. They seem more interested in spending their money on participatory sports and recreation which is less expensive, more sociable and leads to good health. That is borne out in the Indians' high TV ratings but low attendance figures. So perhaps the long-term sustainability of pro sports in all but the largest metro areas is facing a big challenge except for perhaps soccer which is now the third- or fourth-most popular pro sport in the USA.

 

Lastly, you also overlooked the fact that within an hour's drive of Progressive Field, Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse and First Energy Stadium is the population equivalent of the entire states of Oregon or Oklahoma. Indeed, Northeast Ohio has a population greater than that of 21 states.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Hey group - couldn't find a "Cleveland housing" thread, but I had a question.

 

Last time I was home over Christmas, people were telling me the West side housing market was on fire.  I was told everyone was bidding more than asking price in order to get a house for sure in Lakewood, and it was beginning in West Park, and other West side neighborhoods.

 

Do I have this right?

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^Pretty much, yes. It varies depending on the condition of the home, but a fairly move-in ready house in most west side neighborhoods will receive multiple offers.

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I love Cleveland, but despise the municipal/political fragmentation. It lends to such a misleading representation of metropolitan region.  How would you go about measuring the population within a 50 mile radius of Public Square? My estimate would be 3 million. 

 

Population

 (2016)

 • Urban1,780,673 (25th)

 • MSA2,058,844 (33rd)

 • CSA3,515,646 (15th)

Edited by BTremont

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2 hours ago, BTremont said:

I love Cleveland, but despise the municipal/political fragmentation. It lends to such a misleading representation of metropolitan region.  How would you go about measuring the population within a 50 mile radius of Public Square? My estimate would be 3 million. 

 

Population

 (2016)

 • Urban1,780,673 (25th)

 • MSA2,058,844 (33rd)

 • CSA3,515,646 (15th)

 

It is by far the preference of the people who live in the region.  To put it bluntly, people in Solon do not trust the people of Cleveland to select their municipal leadership.   People in the borderlands (the Nordonia-Twinsburg area) trust neither Akron nor Cleveland's

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2 hours ago, BTremont said:

I love Cleveland, but despise the municipal/political fragmentation. It lends to such a misleading representation of metropolitan region.  How would you go about measuring the population within a 50 mile radius of Public Square? My estimate would be 3 million. 

 

Population

 (2016)

 • Urban1,780,673 (25th)

 • MSA2,058,844 (33rd)

 • CSA3,515,646 (15th)

50 mile radius from Public Square gives you 3,255,388.

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2 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

It is by far the preference of the people who live in the region.  To put it bluntly, people in Solon do not trust the people of Cleveland to select their municipal leadership.   People in the borderlands (the Nordonia-Twinsburg area) trust neither Akron nor Cleveland's

 

I haven't met all of the people in Solon and neither have you. They don't exist of a single mind or belief system -- anymore than the people of Cleveland do, even though I'm sure that many of them wouldn't trust the people of Solon to choose their leadership either given all of the abuse they've endured over the decades. I would rather try to find things that we have in common and highlight those, than seek out the things that separate us and use those to keep us apart only to benefit a few. The latter approach is what is hurting this country, not just Greater Cleveland. Unless you somehow believe we're stronger as a metro area and as a country by being set against each other?

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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3 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

It is by far the preference of the people who live in the region.  To put it bluntly, people in Solon do not trust the people of Cleveland to select their municipal leadership.   People in the borderlands (the Nordonia-Twinsburg area) trust neither Akron nor Cleveland's

 

 

no, its the historic legacy. it was fine to form your own suburb back when it was farm and forest. 

 

these days, by far the major preference of people without that legacy is consolidation. 

 

so ne ohio can either continue to meet, discuss and consolidate what they can agree to consolidate, or continue to fund duplicate services and waste money that could be spent elsewhere.

 

continue do nothing because that's how it is is or is perceived to be is not a wise option.

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For fun I was looking at Cuyahoga County population changes by age bracket between April, 2010 (census data) and July 1, 2018 (estimates), during which period the county population delines by about 37,000 people.

 

The two groups account for the whole decline: children from birth to 19 (minus 39,000, 29,000 of which were age 10-19) and (their parents?) adults aged 40-54 (minus 58,000). All other age brackets stayed about the same or grew. The age group 20-39 grew by 20,000 and 60-74 grew by 45,000. So it's fair to say the county is attracting some young folks and not driving out all the old crumblies.

 

This would seem to point to two chief causes: job losses early in the decade and poor public schools. I think the job loss problem is being fixed. The school problem is much harder.

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2018_PEPAGESEX&prodType=table

Edited by Dougal
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There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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NOACA is continuing discussions on merging the Cleveland, Akron and Canton areas into a single MSA with a population over 3 million residents.

 

They site that a major reason would raise the region's profile and give it more access to funding. 

 

Mayor of Akron is against it.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/04/noaca-launches-regional-discussion-on-merging-metropolitan-statistical-areas-to-boost-neo-in-national-rankings.html

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So Akron has a “national stature, prominence and identity” that’s currently working and worth cultivating? Tucked right in the sweet spot between Lakeland/Winter Haven, FL and Des Moines...

Not saying Cleveland’s is any better by the way, but can’t we band together and become something better?

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30 minutes ago, w28th said:

So Akron has a “national stature, prominence and identity” that’s currently working and worth cultivating? Tucked right in the sweet spot between Lakeland/Winter Haven, FL and Des Moines...

Not saying Cleveland’s is any better by the way, but can’t we band together and become something better?

 

Cleveland's national stature isn't any better than Akron's?  I have nothing against Akron, but come on.

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Right, as I said in the Ohio Population thread, I think Akron's profile is raised by becoming Cleveland-Akron, than just Akron. 

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4 hours ago, jam40jeff said:

 

Cleveland's national stature isn't any better than Akron's?  I have nothing against Akron, but come on.

 

Trying to be self deprecating to draw the Akron folks in, my bad.

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On 4/26/2020 at 7:33 PM, Mov2Ohio said:

Right, as I said in the Ohio Population thread, I think Akron's profile is raised by becoming Cleveland-Akron, than just Akron. 

I disagree, I think Akrons profile is raised by being Akron/Canton.

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23 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.census.bureau#!/vizhome/2020CensusSelf-ResponseRankings/RankingsDashboard

 

Looks like the census response rates in Cleveland proper are pretty poor right now. I'm curious, does anyone knows whether poor census response rate is indicative of lower than predicted population or has nothing to do with it?

 

 I don't think anyone would know if it's population-specific, but my guess would be more socio-economic in nature.  Lack of quality internet, awareness, priority, plus no "feet on the streets" who traditionally would go door-to-door due to COVID-19 to properly document.  

 

I think many Clevelanders and Ohioans census fears are coming true--there are very high chance of an under count.   Just hoping it doesn't affect us disproportionally against the rest of the country.  (EDIT: Ohio's responses are above the national average, so that's good to see) 

Edited by MuRrAy HiLL
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3 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

... I'm curious, does anyone knows whether poor census response rate is indicative of lower than predicted population or has nothing to do with it?

 

According to people at the Commerce Dept., it's too soon to tell.  The self-response rate so far is ahead of worst-case projections but not quite as high as hoped, with Internet doing better than expected and the telephone option being chosed by next to nobody (about 1% versus an expected 7%).  The manual follow-up effort is supposed to fill in the gaps, but this year's manual follow-up is not designed to capture unexpected additions to the census tract data - so there is that bit of 'leakage'. OTOH, the census tract data are more accurate than ever, so there shouldn't be much to miss. 

 

Urban areas are becoming harder and harder to canvass with in-person (physical or telephonic) contact, so urban undercounts are to be expected; the hope is the undercount will be small.

Edited by Dougal
missing apostrophe

There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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For about the last 20 years, we've been hearing that the numbers will soon start turning around.  How much longer until it really happens?

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Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. Do they know about all the new housing units Downtown, University Circle, and the Near West Side? or do they simply follow past trends and maybe employment numbers? Not sure. Either way, hopefully they are very wrong---and that we see the city at 450,000 or so at the 2020 Census.

 

 

 

Edited by Pugu
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28 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. Do they know about all the new housing units Downtown, University Circle, and the Near West Side? or do they simply follow past trends and maybe employment numbers? Not sure. Either way, hopefully they are very wrong---and that we see the city at 450,000 or so at the 2020 Census.

 

 

 

 

I doubt the city's population has increased by over 50,000 since the last census.  Even with the growth in the typical neighborhoods we all know of, much of the east-side has been in free fall for decades.  That decline has only gotten worse over the past 10 years.  There are fields now where neighborhoods once stood in places like Kinsman/E. 55th.  There are empty fields now lining St. Clair in Glenville and Collinwood.  There's empty lot after empty lot along many residential streets on the East-Side where your typical Cleveland Double once stood.  The density is gone and much of it will need to be replaced in more than just the inner West-Side and Little Italy. 

 

My hope is that the gains in the few neighborhoods where growth is apparent will offset the losses experienced in the east, and that the city might actually see a small amount of growth for this census.  This has been going on for the last 70 years now; but I think the local economy has finally restructured itself out of the over reliance on manufacturing, just based on the numbers (at or below 12% of the total economy for the metro; compared to over 30% in the 80s).  With the economy growing in health and education there will come more jobs and more people.  That's what's happening now, but it will take time.

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41 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. Do they know about all the new housing units Downtown, University Circle, and the Near West Side? or do they simply follow past trends and maybe employment numbers? Not sure. Either way, hopefully they are very wrong---and that we see the city at 450,000 or so at the 2020 Census.

 

 

 

The city won’t grow while the region is shrinking. As long as the Cleveland metro lags in immigration and jobs the city won’t see significant growth. There has been investment in the near west side and downtown, but practically everything south of Carnegie on the east side is in a free fall.


edit:

@Oldmanladyluck sorry for saying the same thing as you at the same time but worse.

Edited by bumsquare
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5 minutes ago, Oldmanladyluck said:

 

I doubt the city's population has increased by over 50,000 since the last census.  Even with the growth in the typical neighborhoods we all know of, much of the east-side has been in free fall for decades.  That decline has only gotten worse over the past 10 years.  There are fields now where neighborhoods once stood in places like Kinsman/E. 55th.  There are empty fields now lining St. Clair in Glenville and Collinwood.  There's empty lot after empty lot along many residential streets on the East-Side where your typical Cleveland Double once stood.  The density is gone and much of it will need to be replaced in more than just the inner West-Side and Little Italy. 

 

My hope is that the gains in the few neighborhoods where growth is apparent will offset the losses experienced in the east, and that the city might actually see a small amount of growth for this census.  This has been going on for the last 70 years now; but I think the local economy has finally restructured itself out of the over reliance on manufacturing, just based on the numbers (at or below 12% of the total economy for the metro; compared to over 30% in the 80s).  With the economy growing in health and education there will come more jobs and more people.  That's what's happening now, but it will take time.

I really hope this is what happens.  I live in Central Ohio, but i am diehard Cleveland fan. I have such fond memories as a kid (and even now) making the trip up to Cleveland for Browns and Indians games.  I think the really good news this state needs is for Cleveland to finally break through and start adding population.  Columbus and Cincinnati are both there and it would be absolutely amazing if we could get Cleveland there.  If/when that happens, i think the messaging and marketing for this state can take off and see a resurgence in prominence.  I'm always pulling for Cleveland. Hopefully once the new Sherwin-Williams place is done...things really take off!!!

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57 minutes ago, skiwest said:

For about the last 20 years, we've been hearing that the numbers will soon start turning around.  How much longer until it really happens?

 

True city-wide growth is projected to begin sometime between 2024 - 2030. It can be deceiving because we're seeing certain parts of the city grow faster than anywhere in the state of Ohio. The downside is there are still large sections of neighborhoods losing population, though at a slower rate. The growth should finally start to outweigh the loss in ~ 2026.

Edited by Clefan98
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56 minutes ago, skiwest said:

For about the last 20 years, we've been hearing that the numbers will soon start turning around.  How much longer until it really happens?

I was hopeful that when construction numbers began consistently exceeding tear-downs the population would turn around.  BUT ... tear-downs are not the same as abandonments, which are still high. Factor in declining family size, and the recent growth in OC, UC, and downtown still doesn't equal net growth.

 

For now, I think the region needs to be happy with the outcome of the demographic churn accompanying a near static population: a more educated, higher-earing, younger population is driving the recent regional economic improvements.


There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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