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New unemployment claims last week were 3.84m.

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At least 30m people have filed for unemployment since mid-March.

 

The U.S. labor force is ~165m (recognized as all able-bodied, non-retired people age 16+ I believe).  More than 18% of the labor force has filed for unemployment in the last ~6 weeks and that's not even counting the ~3.5% who were unemployed before.

 

Unemployment is heading to 25+%.  Levels not seen since the Great Depression.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

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^ keep in mind that unemployment rate is based on the number of people actively seeking employment. It's possible that some people have given up looking for work too.

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45 minutes ago, freefourur said:

^ keep in mind that unemployment rate is based on the number of people actively seeking employment. It's possible that some people have given up looking for work too.

 

Yeah, that's the commonly cited one.  U3 vs U6.  Conservatives loved to tout the "real" unemployment number during the Obama years as all those folks out of work (including actively looking and those who had given up).

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Very Stable Genius

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Nearly 3.2 million new jobless claims in over the last week.  33.5m in the past 7 weeks.

 

Unemployment comes out tomorrow for April.  Gonna be a doozy.  Heard a sobering take on that - in the past, under "normal" circumstances, we could bring unemployment down by 1-1.5% a year.  Only twice since WW2 have we reduced it by 2+% in a single year.  If unemployment comes in at 12+%, we're looking at possibly a decade before getting back to "full employment" if this is a normal recovery instead of an expedited one.


Very Stable Genius

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This has been one of the strangest months in my 12+ years as a bankruptcy lawyer.  Individual filings had one of the largest month-to-month and year-over-year drops in memory (and there was nothing particularly abnormal about April 2019 that would make it an unrepresentative reference point--April 2020 is obviously the abnormal one), while commercial filing spiked.

 

================================================

 

Total April Bankruptcy Filings Fall 46 Percent over Last Year, Commercial Chapter 11s Increase 26 Percent

 

https://www.abi.org/newsroom/press-releases/total-april-bankruptcy-filings-fall-46-percent-over-last-year-commercial

 

Alexandria, Va.— Total U.S. bankruptcy filings in April 2020 decreased 46 percent from the previous year, according to data provided by Epiq Systems, Inc. Bankruptcy filings totaled 38,428 in April 2020, down from the April 2019 total of 71,303. The 36,150 consumer bankruptcy filings in April 2020 were down 47 percent from the April 2019 consumer total of 67,802. Total commercial filings decreased 35 percent in April 2020, as the 2,278 filings were down from the 3,501 commercial filings registered in April 2019. Conversely, total commercial chapter 11 filings were up 26 percent to 560 in April 2020 from the April 2019 total of 444.

 

...

 

April’s total bankruptcy filings represented a 39 percent decrease when compared to the 62,866 total filings recorded the previous month. Total noncommercial filings for April also represented a 39 percent decrease from the March 2020 noncommercial filing total of 59,684. The commercial filing total represented a 28 percent decrease from the March 2020 commercial filing total of 3,182. Commercial chapter 11 filings increased 6 percent from the 530 filings in March 2020.

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So with the newly unemployed together with the unemployed to start with before the virus we are now at 24% unemployment?  :(

 

They cannot find really effective treatments or a vaccine soon enough.

 

 

Will there be a second stimulus check?

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2 hours ago, Gramarye said:

This has been one of the strangest months in my 12+ years as a bankruptcy lawyer.  Individual filings had one of the largest month-to-month and year-over-year drops in memory (and there was nothing particularly abnormal about April 2019 that would make it an unrepresentative reference point--April 2020 is obviously the abnormal one), while commercial filing spiked.

 

================================================

 

Total April Bankruptcy Filings Fall 46 Percent over Last Year, Commercial Chapter 11s Increase 26 Percent

 

https://www.abi.org/newsroom/press-releases/total-april-bankruptcy-filings-fall-46-percent-over-last-year-commercial

 

Alexandria, Va.— Total U.S. bankruptcy filings in April 2020 decreased 46 percent from the previous year, according to data provided by Epiq Systems, Inc. Bankruptcy filings totaled 38,428 in April 2020, down from the April 2019 total of 71,303. The 36,150 consumer bankruptcy filings in April 2020 were down 47 percent from the April 2019 consumer total of 67,802. Total commercial filings decreased 35 percent in April 2020, as the 2,278 filings were down from the 3,501 commercial filings registered in April 2019. Conversely, total commercial chapter 11 filings were up 26 percent to 560 in April 2020 from the April 2019 total of 444.

 

...

 

April’s total bankruptcy filings represented a 39 percent decrease when compared to the 62,866 total filings recorded the previous month. Total noncommercial filings for April also represented a 39 percent decrease from the March 2020 noncommercial filing total of 59,684. The commercial filing total represented a 28 percent decrease from the March 2020 commercial filing total of 3,182. Commercial chapter 11 filings increased 6 percent from the 530 filings in March 2020.

Its called a tsunami.  The water flows out.  In this case people are getting lenient terms or forgiving a month or two of rent. When the wave hits you’ll have plenty of work. 

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Generally at my business it takes a few months for a negative event such as a poor sales month or unpopular card set to catch up with us.

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I was on another forum about two weeks ago and read a great comment about how residential realtors are always cheery about housing since their livelihood depends on people moving.  

 

Today 700WLW host Scott Sloan had his wife on as a guest (the exact sort of thing that NEVER was allowed in real journalism) ostensibly to talk about the imminent collapse of commercial real estate.  But she simply used every commercial negative to reassure listeners that residential is still strong.  

 

It is?  Who the hell is getting prequalified right now?

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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I asked him about demand locally. He replied with information about the Cleveland and Columbus markets....

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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Two things surprise me by those numbers - one, I would have thought there would be more retail jobs lost. Maybe that shows many are taking advantage of the PPP, or maybe there just weren't as many retail jobs left before the pandemic as I though. Second, I'm surprised so many transportation/warehousing jobs were lost. Even with the stores/restaurants that are closed needing less deliveries, online and grocery has ballooned. I guess it just hasn't been enough to offset the other losses. 

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5 minutes ago, PoshSteve said:

I would have thought there would be more retail jobs lost. 

 

I would imagine that the big box retailers Target, Wal Mart and grocery chains are the vast majority of retail jobs nationally, and they are all open.  

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It's the small boutiques that got closed down.  Big box is doing great.

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3 hours ago, Cleburger said:

 

I would imagine that the big box retailers Target, Wal Mart and grocery chains are the vast majority of retail jobs nationally, and they are all open.  

 

Not only that, but also the vast majority of foot traffic and transaction counts.

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12 hours ago, KJP said:

 

Health care will come back quickly once they start allowing outpatient surgeries again. They were only shut down because of the need to conserve PPE, but since they have ramped up production, these places are opening up again. 

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I’ll say everything comes back except bulk  of the hospitality workforce. That includes passenger aviation, hotels, half of restaurant industry, gyms, salons, casinos, sports, and concert venues. That will likely be until September before any of this gets back to even 50% of previous level and most will be at best 25%.  

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7 hours ago, PoshSteve said:

Two things surprise me by those numbers - one, I would have thought there would be more retail jobs lost. Maybe that shows many are taking advantage of the PPP, or maybe there just weren't as many retail jobs left before the pandemic as I though. Second, I'm surprised so many transportation/warehousing jobs were lost. Even with the stores/restaurants that are closed needing less deliveries, online and grocery has ballooned. I guess it just hasn't been enough to offset the other losses. 

 

A lot of those support retailers such as the TJ Maxx/Homegoods/Marshalls group, etc.  A lot of those have closed until very recently which is probably why you saw the decline for the time being.  As those begin to open back up I was assume you'll see both numbers go down.

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12 hours ago, audidave said:

I’ll say everything comes back except bulk  of the hospitality workforce. That includes passenger aviation, hotels, half of restaurant industry, gyms, salons, casinos, sports, and concert venues. That will likely be until September before any of this gets back to even 50% of previous level and most will be at best 25%.  

 

I've been in an airport since this has gone down, I think air travel will come back quicker than most believe. 

 

Also have been in Savannah for most of this quarantine, this weekend had several more people out exploring than in weeks past.  Bars are serving to-go so people are just walking around taking in the sites. Granted it's still down probably 65% and a unique situation but still.

 

Casinos & Concert Venues are going to take the brunt of this over the next few months.  Restaurant's & hotel's will see a slight tick back by July & August.  Most people have booked & paid for vacations already, don't see everyone cancelling. We have friends that run a vacation rental business in SC, they've only lost 10% and most were during spring break aka the peak.

 

I would expect DeWine to announce gyms will fall in line with restaurants on the 21st or the following Monday some time this week.

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13 minutes ago, wpcc88 said:

 

I would expect DeWine to announce gyms will fall in line with restaurants on the 21st or the following Monday some time this week.

 

Kind of embarrassed to be asking this, since I have a gym in my workplace and wasn't exactly a regular attendee at the gym down in the Merriman Valley that I got a free membership to as part of my health care package at my old firm:

 

How crowded are most gyms most of the time?  Is 6' distancing practical for most gyms most of the time without officially restricting admission (or restricting it only in a theoretical sense, i.e., an official maximum of 20 people when only 15 would be there anyway)?

 

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4 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

How crowded are most gyms most of the time?  Is 6' distancing practical for most gyms most of the time without officially restricting admission (or restricting it only in a theoretical sense, i.e., an official maximum of 20 people when only 15 would be there anyway)?

 

It depends on the layout of course, but usually this time of the year the January New Years resolution people are long gone and some of the cardio types have taken to the streets and trails.   So if this gym is decent sized and they limit access shouldn't be too difficult. 

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4 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

 

Kind of embarrassed to be asking this, since I have a gym in my workplace and wasn't exactly a regular attendee at the gym down in the Merriman Valley that I got a free membership to as part of my health care package at my old firm:

 

How crowded are most gyms most of the time?  Is 6' distancing practical for most gyms most of the time without officially restricting admission (or restricting it only in a theoretical sense, i.e., an official maximum of 20 people when only 15 would be there anyway)?

 

I think it depends on the gym set up. Cardio machines are usually right next to each other. So the gym might block off every other machine.  weight lifters might be able to distance but I'm not sure if someone needs a spotter, how that could works. 

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I was about to say i don’t think gyms will open this year because of the cardio workouts. Take away the cardio and i can see weightlifting being ok to open. 
  Cardio machines pumps the air with people’s breath and that air can sit for hours in a warm moist environment.  

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3 minutes ago, audidave said:

I was about to say i don’t think gyms will open this year because of the cardio workouts. Take away the cardio and i can see weightlifting being ok to open. 
  Cardio machines pumps the air with people’s breath and that air can sit for hours in a warm moist environment.  

I didn't even think about this. I was thinking about sweat but I don't think COVID is transmitted through sweat.

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1 hour ago, freefourur said:

I didn't even think about this. I was thinking about sweat but I don't think COVID is transmitted through sweat.

 

The jury is still out on whether it's even transmittable via breath versus aerosolized droplets from sneezing/coughing, and where that cutoff point is for hard exercise and heavy breathing.  Regardless, the more pressing concern for gyms would be trying to disinfect the multitude of surfaces that members touch when using the equipment.  It's easy for supermarkets to wipe down the shopping cart handles, but gym equipment has so many touch points.  Hand grips like you find on bike handlebars, treadmills, ellipticals, leg presses, pec decks, crunches, benches, etc. tend to be more foamy for good grip and cushioning, and aren't as easily cleaned or sterilized as hard plastic.  Even the bare metal on free weights tends to be textured for better grip, which can make a simple spray and wipe ineffective.  It's a tough one.  

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I don't believe I have seen this posted yet but here are the Metro Area Job Growth stats from February 2020 - March 2020, before...the VIRUS!  Of course this will all be negative now but hey, I give Trenton props for a month!

 

Feb 2020-March 2020 Metro Area Job Growth
+5,600 Atlanta
+3,800 Louisville
+3,000 Myrtle Beach, SC
+2,200 Pittsburgh
+2,100 Dayton
+1,800 Columbia, SC
+1,800 Davenport (Quad Cities IA-IL)
+1,800 Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
+1,500 Augusta, GA
+1,400 Virginia Beach-Norfolk
+1,300 Chattanooga
+1,300 Scranton, PA
+1,200 Pensacola, FL
+1,200 Trenton, NJ
+1,100 Ann Arbor, MI
+1,000 Eugene, OR
+1,000 York, PA
+900 Colorado Springs
+900 Spartanburg, SC
+900 Springfield, MO
+800 Buffalo
+800 Greenville, SC
+800 Harrisburg, PA
+800 Springfield, IL
+700 Cedar Rapids, IA
+700 Denver
+700 Greeley, CO
+700 Indianapolis
+700 Memphis
+700 Mobile
+700 Sioux Falls, SD
+600 Boise
+600 Charleston, WV
+600 Elkhart, IN
+600 Lincoln, NE
+600 Lynchburg, VA
+600 Naples, FL
+600 Port St. Lucie, FL
+500 Appleton, WI
+500 Boulder, CO
+400 Birmingham
+400 Brownsville, TX
+400 Huntington, WV
+400 Kennewick, WA
+400 Macon, GA
+400 St. Cloud, MN
+300 Columbia, MO
+300 Evansville, IN
+300 Killeen, TX
+300 Savannah, GA
+300 Worcester, MA
+200 Allentown-Bethlehem, PA
+200 Lakeland, FL
+200 Lexington, KY
+200 South Bend, IN
+100 Albuquerque
+100 Atlantic City, NJ
+100 Baton Rouge
+100 Canton
+100 Charlottesville, VA
+100 Corpus Christi, TX
+100 Fayetteville, NC
+100 Lafayette, LA
+100 Madison, WI
+100 Montgomery, AL
+100 Omaha
+100 Portland, OR
+100 Santa Cruz, CA
+100 Stockton, CA
+100 Topeka, KS
+100 Utica, NY
+100 Vallejo, CA


No Change
= Amarillo, TX
= Fort Collins, CO
= Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
= Nashville
= Ocala, FL
= Olympia, WA
= San Luis Obispo, CA
= Visalia-Porterville, CA

-100 Binghamton, NY
-100 Bristol, TN
-100 Fargo, ND
-100 Ft. Wayne, IN
-100 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN
-100 Lancaster, PA
-100 Modesto, CA
-100 Northwest Arkansas
-100 Provo, UT
-100 Salem, OR
-200 Erie, PA
-200 Gainesville, FL
-200 Greensboro, NC
-200 Hickory, NC
-200 Knoxville
-200 Laredo, TX
-200 Ogden, UT
-200 Oxnard, CA
-200 Roanoke, VA
-200 Tulsa
-200 Tuscaloosa, AL
-200 Wichita
-300 College Station, TX
-300 Grand Rapids
-300 Lake Charles, LA
-300 Raleigh
-300 Spokane, WA
-300 Tallahassee
-400 Fresno
-400 Lubbock, TX
-400 Midland, TX
-400 Rochester, MN
-400 Shreveport
-400 Tyler, TX
-500 Columbus, GA
-500 Fort Smith, AR
-500 Norwich, CT
-500 Peoria, IL
-500 Reno
-500 Rochester, NY
-500 Salisbury, DE
-500 Waco, TX
-500 Winston-Salem, NC
-600 Des Moines
-600 Duluth, MN
-600 Hagerstown, MD
-600 Huntsville, AL
-600 Kalamazoo, MI
-600 Little Rock
-600 Rockford, IL
-600 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
-600 Santa Rosa, CA
-600 Wilmington, NC
-700 Albany
-700 Anchorage
-700 Flint, MI
-700 Reading, PA
-700 Syracuse
-800 Bakersfield
-800 Burlington, VT
-800 Durham, NC
-800 El Paso
-800 Salt Lake City
-800 Youngstown
-1,000 Champaign-Urbana, IL
-1,000 Fort Meyers, FL
-1,000 Green Bay, WI
-1,000 Lansing-East Lansing, MI
-1,000 Portland, ME
-1,200 Bridgeport, CT
-1,200 Daytona Beach, FL
-1,200 Honolulu
-1,200 McAllen, TX
-1,200 Sarasota, FL
-1,300 Beaumont, TX
-1,300 Salinas, CA
-1,300 Springfield, MA
-1,400 Akron
-1,500 Manchester, NH
-1,500 Melbourne, FL
-1,600 Hartford
-1,600 Jackson, MS
-1,600 Toledo
-1,700 Charleston, SC
-1,800 Asheville, NC
-1,800 Tucson
-2,100 Charlotte
-2,300 St. Louis
-2,400 Oklahoma City
-2,800 Columbus
-3,100 Las Vegas
-3,200 Kansas City
-3,400 New Haven, CT
-3,500 Orlando
-3,500 Sacramento
-3,600 Cincinnati
-3,600 Cleveland

-3,900 Milwaukee
-3,900 Philadelphia
-4,000 Baltimore
-4,000 Seattle
-4,300 New Orleans
-5,100 Richmond
-5,100 Tampa
-5,300 Providence
-5,500 Jacksonville
-5,500 Riverside
-6,500 Phoenix
-6,800 San Antonio
-6,900 Austin
-6,900 San Jose
-7,000 Washington
-7,100 Miami
-8,200 Houston
-8,500 Detroit
-9,100 Boston
-10,100 San Diego
-12,100 Minneapolis-St. Paul
-14,700 San Francisco
-17,700 Chicago
-25,700 New York
-28,800 Dallas-Fort Worth
-48,400 Los Angeles 

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t03.htm


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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10 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

I don't believe I have seen this posted yet but here are the Metro Area Job Growth stats from February 2020 - March 2020, before...the VIRUS!  Of course this will all be negative now but hey, I give Trenton props for a month!

 

Feb 2020-March 2020 Metro Area Job Growth
+5,600 Atlanta
+3,800 Louisville
+3,000 Myrtle Beach, SC
+2,200 Pittsburgh
+2,100 Dayton
+1,800 Columbia, SC
+1,800 Davenport (Quad Cities IA-IL)
+1,800 Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
+1,500 Augusta, GA
+1,400 Virginia Beach-Norfolk
+1,300 Chattanooga
+1,300 Scranton, PA
+1,200 Pensacola, FL
+1,200 Trenton, NJ
+1,100 Ann Arbor, MI
+1,000 Eugene, OR
+1,000 York, PA
+900 Colorado Springs
+900 Spartanburg, SC
+900 Springfield, MO
+800 Buffalo
+800 Greenville, SC
+800 Harrisburg, PA
+800 Springfield, IL
+700 Cedar Rapids, IA
+700 Denver
+700 Greeley, CO
+700 Indianapolis
+700 Memphis
+700 Mobile
+700 Sioux Falls, SD
+600 Boise
+600 Charleston, WV
+600 Elkhart, IN
+600 Lincoln, NE
+600 Lynchburg, VA
+600 Naples, FL
+600 Port St. Lucie, FL
+500 Appleton, WI
+500 Boulder, CO
+400 Birmingham
+400 Brownsville, TX
+400 Huntington, WV
+400 Kennewick, WA
+400 Macon, GA
+400 St. Cloud, MN
+300 Columbia, MO
+300 Evansville, IN
+300 Killeen, TX
+300 Savannah, GA
+300 Worcester, MA
+200 Allentown-Bethlehem, PA
+200 Lakeland, FL
+200 Lexington, KY
+200 South Bend, IN
+100 Albuquerque
+100 Atlantic City, NJ
+100 Baton Rouge
+100 Canton
+100 Charlottesville, VA
+100 Corpus Christi, TX
+100 Fayetteville, NC
+100 Lafayette, LA
+100 Madison, WI
+100 Montgomery, AL
+100 Omaha
+100 Portland, OR
+100 Santa Cruz, CA
+100 Stockton, CA
+100 Topeka, KS
+100 Utica, NY
+100 Vallejo, CA


No Change
= Amarillo, TX
= Fort Collins, CO
= Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
= Nashville
= Ocala, FL
= Olympia, WA
= San Luis Obispo, CA
= Visalia-Porterville, CA

-100 Binghamton, NY
-100 Bristol, TN
-100 Fargo, ND
-100 Ft. Wayne, IN
-100 Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN
-100 Lancaster, PA
-100 Modesto, CA
-100 Northwest Arkansas
-100 Provo, UT
-100 Salem, OR
-200 Erie, PA
-200 Gainesville, FL
-200 Greensboro, NC
-200 Hickory, NC
-200 Knoxville
-200 Laredo, TX
-200 Ogden, UT
-200 Oxnard, CA
-200 Roanoke, VA
-200 Tulsa
-200 Tuscaloosa, AL
-200 Wichita
-300 College Station, TX
-300 Grand Rapids
-300 Lake Charles, LA
-300 Raleigh
-300 Spokane, WA
-300 Tallahassee
-400 Fresno
-400 Lubbock, TX
-400 Midland, TX
-400 Rochester, MN
-400 Shreveport
-400 Tyler, TX
-500 Columbus, GA
-500 Fort Smith, AR
-500 Norwich, CT
-500 Peoria, IL
-500 Reno
-500 Rochester, NY
-500 Salisbury, DE
-500 Waco, TX
-500 Winston-Salem, NC
-600 Des Moines
-600 Duluth, MN
-600 Hagerstown, MD
-600 Huntsville, AL
-600 Kalamazoo, MI
-600 Little Rock
-600 Rockford, IL
-600 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
-600 Santa Rosa, CA
-600 Wilmington, NC
-700 Albany
-700 Anchorage
-700 Flint, MI
-700 Reading, PA
-700 Syracuse
-800 Bakersfield
-800 Burlington, VT
-800 Durham, NC
-800 El Paso
-800 Salt Lake City
-800 Youngstown
-1,000 Champaign-Urbana, IL
-1,000 Fort Meyers, FL
-1,000 Green Bay, WI
-1,000 Lansing-East Lansing, MI
-1,000 Portland, ME
-1,200 Bridgeport, CT
-1,200 Daytona Beach, FL
-1,200 Honolulu
-1,200 McAllen, TX
-1,200 Sarasota, FL
-1,300 Beaumont, TX
-1,300 Salinas, CA
-1,300 Springfield, MA
-1,400 Akron
-1,500 Manchester, NH
-1,500 Melbourne, FL
-1,600 Hartford
-1,600 Jackson, MS
-1,600 Toledo
-1,700 Charleston, SC
-1,800 Asheville, NC
-1,800 Tucson
-2,100 Charlotte
-2,300 St. Louis
-2,400 Oklahoma City
-2,800 Columbus
-3,100 Las Vegas
-3,200 Kansas City
-3,400 New Haven, CT
-3,500 Orlando
-3,500 Sacramento
-3,600 Cincinnati
-3,600 Cleveland

-3,900 Milwaukee
-3,900 Philadelphia
-4,000 Baltimore
-4,000 Seattle
-4,300 New Orleans
-5,100 Richmond
-5,100 Tampa
-5,300 Providence
-5,500 Jacksonville
-5,500 Riverside
-6,500 Phoenix
-6,800 San Antonio
-6,900 Austin
-6,900 San Jose
-7,000 Washington
-7,100 Miami
-8,200 Houston
-8,500 Detroit
-9,100 Boston
-10,100 San Diego
-12,100 Minneapolis-St. Paul
-14,700 San Francisco
-17,700 Chicago
-25,700 New York
-28,800 Dallas-Fort Worth
-48,400 Los Angeles 

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t03.htm

Congrats Dayton and Canton. Surprised Houston is not Lower (more losses). The low cost of oil was keeping pressure on the need for more oil refining and that economy is still heavily dependent on oil.

 

What is going on in LA and Dallas? Of course Cali did shut down things for Covid before the east coast, so maybe that's it.

Edited by Mov2Ohio

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10 hours ago, jjakucyk said:

 

The jury is still out on whether it's even transmittable via breath versus aerosolized droplets from sneezing/coughing, and where that cutoff point is for hard exercise and heavy breathing.  Regardless, the more pressing concern for gyms would be trying to disinfect the multitude of surfaces that members touch when using the equipment.  It's easy for supermarkets to wipe down the shopping cart handles, but gym equipment has so many touch points.  Hand grips like you find on bike handlebars, treadmills, ellipticals, leg presses, pec decks, crunches, benches, etc. tend to be more foamy for good grip and cushioning, and aren't as easily cleaned or sterilized as hard plastic.  Even the bare metal on free weights tends to be textured for better grip, which can make a simple spray and wipe ineffective.  It's a tough one.  

Every gym I’ve ever been in has cleaning stations setup in multiple areas. The only thing would be the “breath transmission” that you mentioned. Even then I think health freaks would be willing to take that risk.

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7 hours ago, wpcc88 said:

Every gym I’ve ever been in has cleaning stations setup in multiple areas. 

 

Is that cleaning for "eew I don't want to sit in someone else's sweat" versus actual effective disinfection?

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18 hours ago, jjakucyk said:

 

The jury is still out on whether it's even transmittable via breath versus aerosolized droplets from sneezing/coughing.  

 

The jury might still technically be out but the circumstantial evidence is strong: specifically, with respect to some major spread events at choir practices.  Singing also pumps the air with one's breath; cardio probably does even moreso, though singing still does a lot more than non-singers might realize.

 

I'd be worried about cardio in close proximity to others.  I think it would be smarter and safer to take cardio to the trails for a while (especially as we're coming into the warmer months).

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11 hours ago, jjakucyk said:

 

Is that cleaning for "eew I don't want to sit in someone else's sweat" versus actual effective disinfection?

 

Most is all purpose cleaner, so yes an effective disinfectant.

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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2 hours ago, KJP said:

 

 

I don't buy it.   Once things are back to "normal,"  most CEOs and CFOs will take a look at the costs and go right back to ordering from Mexico, China, etc.   

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If they can automate they'll reshore, since that takes labor costs almost entirely out of the equation.  Otherwise, yeah.  

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And they'll keep doing this until some real jail sentences start getting dished out.....

 

 

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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45 minutes ago, KJP said:

And they'll keep doing this until some real jail sentences start getting dished out.....

 

 

 

I believe there have already been some scattered defaults with bundled retail property mortgage notes - and that warning came years ago. Some lessons are never learned.

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There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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And I'll bet that most of the drop was because city planning commissions weren't able to meet and approve projects.....

 

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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FWIW....

 

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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Local Area Unemployment Statistics are out with COVID-19 stats.

 

For Ohio:

 

188. Columbus MSA - 13.7

204. Cincinnati MSA - 14.1

270. Dayton MSA - 15.9

276. Akron MSA - 16.0

286. Canton-Massillon MSA - 16.3

317. Springfield MSA - 17.4

354. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman MSA - 19.8

359. Mansfield MSA - 20.3

361. Lima MSA - 20.6

370. Toledo MSA - 22.0

373. Cleveland-Elyria MSA - 23.1

 

Nationally, some notables:

 

The bottom is 389. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI MSA - 35.0389 (!!!)

The second from the bottom, and not far from Ohio, is 388. Kokomo MSA - 34.1

The top metro for employment numbers currently is Logan, UT-ID MSA - 6.2

The top major metro is 9. Hartford MSA at 7.5

The worst major metro is, not surprisingly, Las Vegas MSA with 33.5

 

Full list from 6/3/20 is below:

https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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