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Just now, eastvillagedon said:

 

This is why I don't understand why anyone (regardless of their affiliation) would want a Democrat Congress at this point. Why go back to the failed policies of the past? It's like trading in a silk purse for a sow's ear. 

 

Some of us study history.  Others are in cults.

 

https://thereformedbroker.com/2016/12/13/every-unified-republican-government-ever-has-led-to-a-financial-crash/

 

Quote

Every “Unified Republican Government” Ever Has Led to a Financial Crash

 

Edited by DarkandStormy
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Didn't conservatives harp on the "labor participation rate" to try to discredit the 75 consecutive months of job growth under Obama?

 

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

 

Yeah, it's still at its lowest level since 1978.  When are we going to hear the criticisms of Trump and the Republicans for not expanding the labor participation rate?  I'll wait.

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"Failed policies of the past"

 

Here is the change in unemployment rate during every President's tenure since 1953 (Eisenhower).  You will see, I'm sure, some patterns that have developed over the last 65 years.

 

 

startingUnemployment.png

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Amazon not really doing an HQ2. More like an HQ2a and HQ2b? Choosing Long Island City neighborhood of Queens NYC and Crystal City VA across from Washington DC:  
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-split.amp.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share#click=https://t.co/Rh59izh7cV

 

The HQ2 was always such a weird concept (a second headquarters equal to the first? 50k new jobs from thin air?) that I was skeptical they’d go through with it as advertised. Meanwhile by going to these gilded coastal enclaves they’re not doing anything to help their image as an extractive company for flyover country...

Edited by thebillshark

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I'm not surprised at all by the location choices.

 

Remember, amazon has to stay "cool". Wal-Mart has been totally uncool for 20 years but it doesn't matter since their core demo doesn't care and has no activist streak against big business. If amazon becomes uncool, cool sites are only a click away -- unlike Wal-Mart where people have to drive 75+ miles through the desert or rugged mountainsides to get to an alternative.

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Just now, GCrites80s said:

I'm not surprised at all by the location choices.

 

Remember, amazon has to stay "cool". Wal-Mart has been totally uncool for 20 years but it doesn't matter since their core demo doesn't care had has no activist streak against big business. If amazon becomes uncool, cool sites are only a click away instead of the case of Wal-Mart where people have to drive 75+ miles through the desert or rugged mountainsides to get to an alternative.

But Amazon has been smart in creating an ecosystem with streaming content and other perks. This type of thing keeps a good portion in their orbit. 

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Well hey, the positive news is that as a result of our easy to win trade wars, soy bean sales are down 94% in the last 12 months. Don't worry though, we are subsidizing that loss with a bridge loan from China. 

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I just do not buy “creative class” theory. Who are these supposedly elite-Olympic-athlete-level corporate employees that will toil way happily in NYC but would not come to Columbus OH for any amount of money? If they are “superstars” aren’t they spending most of their time at work instead of taking advantage of restaurants, nightlife etc.? Especially  if you’re talking about engineers (who tend to be more introverted from my experience) and not fashion designers? I suppose there’s a threshold of cosmopolitan-ality to meet, but I have a hard time believing that most mid-sized cities in the US are below it. 

 

I saw a tweet that mentioned parts of Long Island City are in the new federally designated “Opportunity Zones.” Are the HQ2 sites simply places where Amazon can maximize their real estate investment? 

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11 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Well hey, the positive news is that as a result of our easy to win trade wars, soy bean sales are down 94% in the last 12 months. Don't worry though, we are subsidizing that loss with a bridge loan from China. 

 

I'm interested to see your source for that stat.  I have a lot of family & friends that are farmers - while prices are down, they aren't THAT far down.  People are still making money.

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I just do not buy “creative class” theory. Who are these supposedly elite-Olympic-athlete-level corporate employees that will toil way happily in NYC but would not come to Columbus OH for any amount of money? If they are “superstars” aren’t they spending most of their time at work instead of taking advantage of restaurants, nightlife etc.? Especially  if you’re talking about engineers (who tend to be more introverted from my experience) and not fashion designers? I suppose there’s a threshold of cosmopolitan-ality to meet, but I have a hard time believing that most mid-sized cities in the US are below it. 

 

I saw a tweet that mentioned parts of Long Island City are in the new federally designated “Opportunity Zones.” Are the HQ2 sites simply places where Amazon can maximize their real estate investment? 

 

They ARE from Columbus (metaphorically) and want to leave.

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Just now, gottaplan said:

 

I'm interested to see your source for that stat.  I have a lot of family & friends that are farmers - while prices are down, they aren't THAT far down.  People are still making money.

 

The failing NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

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Just now, thebillshark said:

I just do not buy “creative class” theory. Who are these supposedly elite-Olympic-athlete-level corporate employees that will toil way happily in NYC but would not come to Columbus OH for any amount of money? If they are “superstars” aren’t they spending most of their time at work instead of taking advantage of restaurants, nightlife etc.? Especially  if you’re talking about engineers (who tend to be more introverted from my experience) and not fashion designers? I suppose there’s a threshold of cosmopolitan-ality to meet, but I have a hard time believing that most mid-sized cities in the US are below it. 

 

I saw a tweet that mentioned parts of Long Island City are in the new federally designated “Opportunity Zones.” Are the HQ2 sites simply places where Amazon can maximize their real estate investment? 

 

Living in Los Angeles, I can tell you that A LOT of people here would never, ever consider moving to Columbus (or Cincinnati or Cleveland) for any amount of money. There is a real perception here that everything east of California and west of...DC? is a conservative cultural wasteland. I obviously couldn't agree less, but the perception is very much real. Chicago escapes this a bit, but even it kind of gets lumped into the general midwest narrative. 

 

This is why I think the Amazon decision is so disappointing. We already have a huge problem with educated (and yes, liberal) people leaving the interior of the country for better opportunities on the coasts. We saw the ramifications of this in the 2016 election, and it's not pretty. Companies need to invest in places like Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, the 3 Cs, etc. Even if they can't convince a bunch of Californians that Ohio is cool, they could keep a lot of Ohioans in Ohio, and that'a a crucial first step to reversing the narrative. Amazon had a unique opportunity to be THE game changer for a city, but instead chose to locate in NYC and DC, where their impact will be minimal. They had people in places from Detroit to Dayton dreaming about the possibility to reverse their fortunes in one catalytic investment, and it turns out it was all a charade. Shame on Amazon. 

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Just now, GCrites80s said:

 

They ARE from Columbus (metaphorically) and want to leave.

I like how New York City is casually comparable to Columbus. Heck, why wouldn't they move to Findlay? We've got an Applebee's too. 

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Creative people are born in small towns throughout the nation, as well as in the big cities of the Midwest. I'm sure many of them would prefer to not move to the coasts and stay close to family and friends.

 

And yet Californians are moving to conservative Salt Lake City, home of the Mormon Church.

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Just now, YABO713 said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

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Just now, KJP said:

Creative people are born in small towns throughout the nation, as well as in the big cities of the Midwest. I'm sure many of them would prefer to not move to the coasts and stay close to family and friends.

 

And yet Californians are moving to conservative Salt Lake City, home of the Mormon Church.

 

When I was talking to random folks out in Seattle recently, I simply couldn't convince them that where I lived wasn't a hyperconservative bible belt wasteland. There are far more shades of grey in this country than a lot of coastal people are willing to admit/see, even within their own states.

 

I think SLC gets a pass because of the mountains. West Coasters only think a city is worthwhile if there are visible mountains nearby. It's the only explanation I have for why they're moving to (the admittedly lovely, yet isolated) places like Boise and Missoula despite these towns being much smaller and having less resources than more-developed cities further east.

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Just now, gottaplan said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

 

Farmers only stop upgrading their equipment when things are REALLY shitty. There's too much to gain from newer equipments' increased productivity and decreased input costs.

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Just now, gottaplan said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

 

Unless I'm missing something the article only points out that soybean exports to China are down 94%. Looking elsewhere, the price of soybeans is down a more manageable and expected amount of around 7% YTD.

 

What seems to be happening is that soybean prices in China are high because they're buying from other countries at a premium. American farms have to sell elsewhere for slightly less than they would have been selling if China were buying the typical amount of product. The US "wins" if the hit our farmers take (about a 7% cut in price) is less impactful than the impact the higher prices have on the Chinese consumer, which seems to be substantial: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-futures/china-soybean-prices-spike-as-trade-war-worries-feed-supply-fears-idUSKBN1KT0V3

Edited by Ram23

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Just now, gottaplan said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

 

Yeah, I think on the whole many Ohio farmers are lucky that they're in close proximity to their markets. We have some big farms in Ohio, but nothing compared to the Plains states. 

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China has been subsidizing its industries and putting prohibitive tariffs on our exports for a long time.  It might be the most successful economic policy ever devised.  They keep eating our lunch and sticking us with the tab.

Edited by 327

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15 hours ago, 327 said:

China has been subsidizing its industries and putting prohibitive tariffs on our exports for a long time.  It might be the most successful economic policy ever devised.  They keep eating our lunch and sticking us with the tab.

 

China's stock market is down something like 30% on the year.  The tariffs have caused them to completely redirect their government subsidy - instead of supplementing technology & research (and intellectual theft), they are instead supplementing food, infrastructure and other essentials.  They've also reversed course on their practice of devaluing their currency

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