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Kroger could be a logical acquirer of Whole Foods, analyst says

 

wholefoods-corporate.jpg

 

Kroger Co. could be a logical buyer for Whole Foods Market after all.

 

A Wall Street analyst wrote in a report to clients on Thursday that a Kroger acquisition of Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFM) would be a big benefit to Cincinnati-based Kroger (NYSE: KR).

 

Edward Kelly, an analyst who tracks Kroger for Credit Suisse, wrote that a Kroger purchase of Whole Foods “would marry each company’s strengths with the other’s weaknesses, unlock massive cost synergies that could reach 3 percent of Whole Foods sales, help Kroger expand its customer base and possibly provide the growth format it has been eager to develop.”

 

Kelly said that an acquisition would give Kroger, the nation’s largest operator of traditional supermarkets, the size and efficiencies to fight off competitors like Wal-Mart as well as newcomers to the food business such as meal kit provider Blue Apron.

 

More below:

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/04/20/kroger-could-be-a-logical-acquirer-of-whole-foods.html


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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^its funny how these rumors keep persisting. Whenever there is a troubled operator, it is assumed Kroger will save the day. Personally, this deal makes no sense for Kroger, unless it is fire sale prices. Whole Foods offers them nothing they don't have already, and they are a company that does not like to buy turnaround companies, which Whole Foods is.

 

Honestly, the company I see buying whole foods is Amazon as there can be more strategic fits that present themselves.

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Kroger IS the one causing Whole Foods so much trouble. If I'm running a store, the best is to wait for a competitor to die, then vulture only on the locations you actually want. They didn't do that too much with Big Bear since so many Big Bears were very close to Krogers. They did do it in Gahanna, I believe.

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My former high school locker partner was regional manager for Whole Foods' Manhattan stores for several years and now works at the corporate office in Austin, TX.  Would be great to see him make a full circle back to the 'Nati. 

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Kroger to open new convenience store concept

 

Kroger Co. is expected to open a new type of convenience store on Wednesday, Supermarket News reports.

 

The Cincinnati-based grocer (NYSE: KR) will open a concept called Fresh Eats MKT in Blacklick, Ohio. CFO Mike Schlotman described the concept as “a different kind of convenience store” during an investor conference on Tuesday.

 

More below:

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/05/10/kroger-to-open-new-convenience-store-concept.html


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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They don't really explain what's different about it. It sounds like it's just Turkey Hill with a little more produce.

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He really got up in front of everyone at an investor conference and described it by saying, "It's a different kind of convenience store." ?

 

I wonder why they have a test store in Blacklick, OH. That's pretty far out there. I've never even been there.

 

It's interesting that Turkey Hill is owned by Kroger, yet there's no Turkey Hills in Cincinnati. Not a single one. Maybe they figured they wouldn't stand a chance against UDF. They're EVERYWHERE in Columbus now and they all just sprouted out of nowhere, fairly recently.

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He really got up in front of everyone at an investor conference and described it by saying, "It's a different kind of convenience store." ?

 

I wonder why they have a test store in Blacklick, OH. That's pretty far out there. I've never even been there.

 

It's interesting that Turkey Hill is owned by Kroger, yet there's no Turkey Hills in Cincinnati. Not a single one. Maybe they figured they wouldn't stand a chance against UDF. They're EVERYWHERE in Columbus now and they all just sprouted out of nowhere, fairly recently.

 

Do you get a free malt with every UDF mention? :)


www.cincinnatiideas.com

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Amazon is buying Whole Foods for $13.7 billion.


"It's just fate, as usual, keeping its bargain and screwing us in the fine print..." - John Crichton

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I think Kroger will be just fine in the long run. In fact right now is probably a good time to buy up some stock for cheap as it took a huge nose dive and seems to be way undervalued.

 

A real problem for Kroger would be if Amazon introduces a house brand. I've got Prime and I've tried to use Amazon for groceries, but in a side by side with Kroger's online ordering Amazon is way, way more expensive, mainly because of Kroger branded products. I don't see the acquisition of Whole Foods helping Amazon out with prices in any way, given it's failure was mainly due to exorbitant prices.

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Amazon's going to get broken up by the feds within 10 years. The good news for investors is that each division will probably be much more profitable than the company as a whole. As soon as one part of Amazon starts profiting the profits are immediately thrown at something "disruptive" that loses money for 10 years.

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I think Kroger will be just fine in the long run. In fact right now is probably a good time to buy up some stock for cheap as it took a huge nose dive and seems to be way undervalued.

 

A real problem for Kroger would be if Amazon introduces a house brand. I've got Prime and I've tried to use Amazon for groceries, but in a side by side with Kroger's online ordering Amazon is way, way more expensive, mainly because of Kroger branded products. I don't see the acquisition of Whole Foods helping Amazon out with prices in any way, given it's failure was mainly due to exorbitant prices.

 

Amazon already has a house brand.  In fact, Amazon actually has many house brands:

 

https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/03/amazons-private-label-brands-are-killing-it-says-new-report/

 

It has 7 brands of its own in the apparel space alone: http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/24/news/companies/amazon-fashion-retail-clothing/index.html

 

It also has many house brands already that would occupy what you'd think of as the "grocery" space, including Happy Belly in the packaged foods space as well as consumables like detergent, batteries, etc.

 

Amazon's going to get broken up by the feds within 10 years. The good news for investors is that each division will probably be much more profitable than the company as a whole. As soon as one part of Amazon starts profiting the profits are immediately thrown at something "disruptive" that loses money for 10 years.

 

The company is up 35% YOY and more than 400% over 5 years.  For a company that "loses money for 10 years" on all its new initiatives, the market seems to love it.  (Disclosure: AMZN is a massive portion of my portfolio, possibly even my largest holding.)  As to whether it gets broken up, remember that sheer size alone does not a monopoly make.  It has to engage in anticompetitive behavior.  AMZN is very good at avoiding that.  It sells almost everything at a gross profit, so it's hard to argue that they're keeping prices artificially low in order to smother competition, for example.  It just also plows that money back into capex rather than going to the capital markets for expansion money, so it doesn't show up as net revenue on the income statement.  But AMZN has a staggering amount of assets and basically no debt.  Its revenue has also proven not just sustainable but geometrically growable.  That's the source of the $460B market cap.

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Really no reason why they should even be able to set up the whole Prime Air thing. 

 

The problem with Amazon is that when it comes down to it it's not serving the public good.  It's making it even easier for people to fill their houses with piles of crap they don't need.  I haven't bought anything off of Amazon in at least five years.   

 

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It's definitely a last resort for me. I didn't realize they quit making those big Ohio Atlas and Gazetteers in 2011. I prowled a Wal*Marts and 2 Meijer locations for one since those stores used to be the go-to for that sort of thing in my area. So I got the 2011 version off Amazon and it sucked! Had I been able to look at it in a store I wouldn't have even bought the 2011. So back to Amazon to get a fresh 1995 version to replace my 1995 that got too beat up over the years.

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^Yeah, I used to deliver in Cincinnati with a local road atlas I got for $5 at most.  Then I got a smart phone and for $50~/mo I get GPS, which is at most 30 seconds faster in finding a street. 

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I got a $400 Bonus Amazon Gift Card from work.  I literally have no idea what to do with it.

 

You can give it to me if you don't want it.

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What's good about having a physical presence with Whole Foods and their prototype Amazon B&Ms is turning them into return dumps. Internet purchases get returned way more than B&M ones since items you don't see or touch ahead of time are often full of surprises. Some people don't like packing things back up and then having to deal with post office/UPS/FedEx hours or having to worry about it having a second chance of being stolen off their front porch and would rather return things to a physical location.

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Amazon already has a house brand.  In fact, Amazon actually has many house brands:

 

I could have been more precise and said a house brand for groceries, and a value one at that. They've got a small lineup of grocery that competes with higher end items, from what I can see.  I've got dozens of their batteries sitting in a closet, but batteries were never something I was buying at Kroger, anyway. I buy $1 boxes of pasta at Kroger. Right now, the best price I can find on Amazon is $1.38 for the same box.

 

Plus, fresh produce and cuts of chicken/fish/meat make up the vast majority of what I buy and eat, and I'm not one to let someone else pick those out for me - so I'm admittedly not in the online grocery target demographic, anyway. I don't know that I'd trust someone to deliver those, either, and I'm not into fond of waiting around at home at specific times for deliveries - as most of that stuff can't be left on a porch.

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Ironically, my parents were customers in the last generation's dying incarnation of the home grocery-delivery business, way back in the day: out in Kirkersville, we actually had a Borden refrigerated truck come through once a week, and it had so much more than milk.  When we were kids and so there were four of us in the house, we used to get regular milk, chocolate milk, OJ, eggs, cheese, ice cream, and more from that thing.  And that guy would show up without knowing in advance that there was a customer there (though admittedly, we were regular enough customers that he might as well have).

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Amazon already has a house brand.  In fact, Amazon actually has many house brands:

 

I could have been more precise and said a house brand for groceries, and a value one at that. They've got a small lineup of grocery that competes with higher end items, from what I can see.  I've got dozens of their batteries sitting in a closet, but batteries were never something I was buying at Kroger, anyway. I buy $1 boxes of pasta at Kroger. Right now, the best price I can find on Amazon is $1.38 for the same box.

 

Plus, fresh produce and cuts of chicken/fish/meat make up the vast majority of what I buy and eat, and I'm not one to let someone else pick those out for me - so I'm admittedly not in the online grocery target demographic, anyway. I don't know that I'd trust someone to deliver those, either, and I'm not into fond of waiting around at home at specific times for deliveries - as most of that stuff can't be left on a porch.

Same here. I have a Kroger 1 mile away, I go 3-4 times a week.

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I don't know that I'd trust someone to deliver those, either, and I'm not into fond of waiting around at home at specific times for deliveries - as most of that stuff can't be left on a porch.

 

Home delivery could work if we were a nation full of housewives.  But we're not. 

 

What's worse, I can attest from having delivered thousands of pizzas in the cell phone era that cell phones DO NOT make it easier to deliver food.  In the old days you called a house's land line before you left the store and let them know you'd be there in 10 minutes.  Their kid would be assigned to sit by the front window waiting for you to show up.  You'd show up and they'd answer the door promptly and have the money laid out. 

 

Now people order pizzas and promptly turn off their goddamn cell phones.  THE TURN THEM OFF!!!  ALL THE TIME!!!  So you go to the place, call them, and nothing happens.  You can't get in the building or they didn't specify which apartment they're in.  If they're in their house, they can't hear your knocking because they're down in the basement playing video games with headphones on.  You ask a neighbor and nobody knows anybody. 

 

Delivering a wide range of food, and of course perishable food, simply isn't going to work.  People aren't home.  And if they are, their phones are turned off. 

 

 

 

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Going to go ahead and say it'll probably be fine. Fresh Direct doesn't seem to have any problems. They'll likely handle it the same way.

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^All of the people calling back with bogus food complaints today (I said light cook on this pizza!!!) are going to be the same ones forcing Amazon's personnel to waste lots of time fielding complaints, taking "bad" food back, and bringing "better" pears or oranges or chicken or whatever out.  In the pizza business, you bring them a new pizza, and they've turned their phone off YET AGAIN. 

 

Facebook didn't have problems in the beginning, then they got every idiot out there on it and they ruined it for everyone else.  The delivery business is no different.  Wealthy customers are less picky, pay on time, don't attempt to scam the company, etc. 

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I think Kroger will be fine, but it doesn't need to take this lightly at all. I know Kroger has been working on certain tech that Amazon has discussed using, but they haven't done anything with it or rolled it out. Amazon changes the no matter what they do it seems.

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^So people are more willing to return an item to a physical store than to purchase one?  What a time to be alive. 

 

When people return something they are on a mission. It consumes every fiber of their existence. They are getting CASH NOW or at least it "put back on their card" if you can't fix the problem right away. People will put more effort into it than getting a job.

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I worked at the customer service desk at Kroger in high school and college. Some people would return the strangest things.

 

Sometimes it would be something very small like a box of Rice a Roni ... really? Was it even worth your gas money to come here and get a refund of $1.58?

 

Other times it would be something huge, like when a couple came in and tried to return three 25 lb. bags of sugar. Did they plan to start a bakery but then changed their mind? When I told them that I'd have to give them the refund on a Kroger gift card, they informed me that, "that don't make no sense."

 

Finally, there was a woman who would frequently buy steaks, take them home and grill them, and then return to the store with the packaging and say, "it was really tough and not that good" and ask for a refund. Week after week.

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^All of the people calling back with bogus food complaints today (I said light cook on this pizza!!!) are going to be the same ones forcing Amazon's personnel to waste lots of time fielding complaints, taking "bad" food back, and bringing "better" pears or oranges or chicken or whatever out.  In the pizza business, you bring them a new pizza, and they've turned their phone off YET AGAIN. 

 

Facebook didn't have problems in the beginning, then they got every idiot out there on it and they ruined it for everyone else.  The delivery business is no different.  Wealthy customers are less picky, pay on time, don't attempt to scam the company, etc. 

 

Whole foods doesn't have the clientele that complains about everything. The biggest difference between poor and middle-class or upper-middle class people (who actually eat healthy) is how they react to things that don't seem to go their way. For someone who shops at Whole Foods, their time is more valuable than the average person who shops at Kroger. I hate to say it but I'm sure they're also more likely to just let the small things in life that were out of their control, go, without caring much and feeling the need to make a petty point.

 

I doubt Whole Foods even deals with "Shrink" issues the way Kroger or Wal-Mart does, despite their merchandise being much more expensive. It seems like the most retail theft happens at Dollar Stores (they always have that audio warning you when you enter, that you're under surveillance and have monitors everywhere showing that you're on camera.)

 

I wish Kroger would have acquired Whole Foods but the best thing they can do now, is more directly compete with them.

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^All of the people calling back with bogus food complaints today (I said light cook on this pizza!!!) are going to be the same ones forcing Amazon's personnel to waste lots of time fielding complaints, taking "bad" food back, and bringing "better" pears or oranges or chicken or whatever out.  In the pizza business, you bring them a new pizza, and they've turned their phone off YET AGAIN. 

 

Facebook didn't have problems in the beginning, then they got every idiot out there on it and they ruined it for everyone else.  The delivery business is no different.  Wealthy customers are less picky, pay on time, don't attempt to scam the company, etc. 

 

Whole foods doesn't have the clientele that complains about everything. The biggest difference between poor and middle-class or upper-middle class people (who actually eat healthy) is how they react to things that don't seem to go their way. For someone who shops at Whole Foods, their time is more valuable than the average person who shops at Kroger. I hate to say it but I'm sure they're also more likely to just let the small things in life that were out of their control, go, without caring much and feeling the need to make a petty point.

 

I doubt Whole Foods even deals with "Shrink" issues the way Kroger or Wal-Mart does, despite their merchandise being much more expensive. It seems like the most retail theft happens at Dollar Stores (they always have that audio warning you when you enter, that you're under surveillance and have monitors everywhere showing that you're on camera.)

 

I wish Kroger would have acquired Whole Foods but the best thing they can do now, is more directly compete with them.

 

did it ever occur to you that most Kroger customers don't have the disposable income that Whole Foods customers do? If a particular product (say a staple item) is damaged or unfit for consumption, the few dollars that was used to pay for it by the Kroger shopper is going to mess up that person's food budget for a week; but the Whole Foods customer can pay those same dollars (or much more) for an upscale product, and if that's inedible, it won't make a dent in that person's finances.

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^All of the people calling back with bogus food complaints today (I said light cook on this pizza!!!) are going to be the same ones forcing Amazon's personnel to waste lots of time fielding complaints, taking "bad" food back, and bringing "better" pears or oranges or chicken or whatever out.  In the pizza business, you bring them a new pizza, and they've turned their phone off YET AGAIN. 

 

Facebook didn't have problems in the beginning, then they got every idiot out there on it and they ruined it for everyone else.  The delivery business is no different.  Wealthy customers are less picky, pay on time, don't attempt to scam the company, etc. 

 

Whole foods doesn't have the clientele that complains about everything. The biggest difference between poor and middle-class or upper-middle class people (who actually eat healthy) is how they react to things that don't seem to go their way. For someone who shops at Whole Foods, their time is more valuable than the average person who shops at Kroger. I hate to say it but I'm sure they're also more likely to just let the small things in life that were out of their control, go, without caring much and feeling the need to make a petty point.

 

I doubt Whole Foods even deals with "Shrink" issues the way Kroger or Wal-Mart does, despite their merchandise being much more expensive. It seems like the most retail theft happens at Dollar Stores (they always have that audio warning you when you enter, that you're under surveillance and have monitors everywhere showing that you're on camera.)

 

I wish Kroger would have acquired Whole Foods but the best thing they can do now, is more directly compete with them.

 

did it ever occur to you that most Kroger customers don't have the disposable income that Whole Foods customers do? If a particular product (say a staple item) is damaged or unfit for consumption, the few dollars that was used to pay for it by the Kroger shopper is going to mess up that person's food budget for a week; but the Whole Foods customer can pay those same dollars (or much more) for an upscale product, and if that's inedible, it won't make a dent in that person's finances.

 

I would say that's poverty in general. Middle class and above, you live in a world of hundreds to thousands of dollars, months and years. Poor people live in a world of pennies and dollars, minutes and hours. They undervalue their own time and labor and overvalue near-term gratification, at the expense of undervaluing long-term investment. This is a natural survival mechanism for living on the financial brink, which just perpetuates their poverty. They are willing to spend their time on little complaints because they live in a world where their time isn't worth very much, so they have no perspective.

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I heard a saying once along the lines of "It is the wealthy that wait the most in life"

 

for what? the next Hermès Birkin handbag?? Can't they just hire someone to wait for them?

 

Right, I feel that there are proportionately equal segments of the wealthy and upper middle class populations that can be unreasonable when it comes to seemingly petty things as much as with poorer segments of the population.

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My guess is that Kroger knows multitudes more about human behavior within stores than Whole Foods since WF was mostly running mostly on coolness, product and their extremely specific location choices. Amazon has none of that type of information whatsoever.

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I miss being a restaurant manager. I loved it when customers were being totally unreasonable and didn't like what I had to say regarding our policies and would ask to speak to the manager. "I'm the highest ranking one here!" That was the best part of having a managerial job. The worst part was employees accusing me of 'targeting' them. I got hit with that so much, when I'd write people up or pull them aside to talk to them about their shinanigans. Like reprimanding employees for no-call no-shows or playing on their phones all shift or stealing is something they're protected from under 'Hostile Work Environment' laws. "I really feel like you're targeting me." I'd tell them, "Really!? You're the fifth person to tell me that this week!"  :laugh:

 

I worked at the Kroger in Kenwood when I was 16-18. Looking back, I remember working with a lot of extremely intelligent co-workers. For whatever reason, it does seem like Kroger attracts quality workers.  I was just a bagger and someone who pushed all the carts back into the entrance while I was in High School. There were a lot of older ladies from Indian Hill who would have me help load their heavy groceries into their trunk and tip me really well. Back then, a $5-$10 tip to load some groceries into a car made me feel like I hit the lottery! It was a fairly menial job but it put a decent amount of money in my pocket and it was cool that I could just cash my check at customer service. I had to pay union dues and I always thought that was stupid considering it was a minimum wage job. I thought it defeated the purpose of a union if after union dues, I'm actually making less than minimum wage. They provided health insurance but I was a minor and didn't have any reason to care about how my health insurance was going to be paid. Especially since, if you were poor, you were basically guaranteed free healthcare in Hamilton Co. anyway and I'm sure that's one contributing factor in Kroger being so friendly towards minors.

 

I couldn't believe how many folks I worked with at Kroger had college degrees and were cashiers or worked in whatever department or made $8-$10 an hour working customer service. I had a lot of really cool, interesting co-workers. They were insanely intelligent, well-educated people who were just helping to peddle groceries for a living, to get by. I think that was my earliest experience in seeing the harsh reality of how worthless a LOT of college degrees can be.

 

I only got a 10% discount at that job and it only applied to Kroger brand merchandise, so obviously their profit margins are very low. Overall, it was a pretty cool place to work, though. I really wish I would have put half of my paychecks into buying Kroger stock back then. It was definitely heavily discounted in some way that I can't quite remember. They matched what I would have bought or the stock was just straight-up discounted. Something like that.

 

I remember the word "Shrink." Apparently 1% of their products are stolen. That actually doesn't seem very bad for any sort of retail store. When I worked at Old Navy from age 16-18, I watched women walk out in handcuffs on a daily or weekly basis from stealing. They even had a loss prevention specialist who went to insane extremes to catch people stealing but that's a lengthy (although extremely hilarious) post for another time. It really didn't seem like people stole from Kroger much. I think food stamps play a big part in that.

 

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I just don't see this Amazon thing as the end of the world for Kroger. Just because they bought Whole Foods does not mean they understand how to run a grocery business. They purchased a company that was struggling in the marketplace and being eaten alive by Kroger. Amazon is leaving the management team there intact. I don't see how that changes the course of Whole Foods.

 

Now, Amazon does bring the cache of throwing tons of money into propping up the business but again, that assumes they know what they are doing in the grocery business. It is going to take them a while to get up to speed to even make a dent in the industry.

 

Everyone assumes Amazon is the most amazing company, but they really do not make much of a profit. What amazes me is how they get their investors to hang with them for so long on this potential that may never come. I still think they are a house of cards

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Personally, I think Amazon is spreading themselves too thin with this acquisition. It's far from being seamless. It's sort of like AOL-Time-Warner. If anything, it'll probably strengthen Kroger through increased sales. Have they even mentioned anything about upholding the same (or exceeding) WF's standards and mission? Hell, even if they have, I'm not sure that their customers would buy it without being skeptical and highly critical.

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From the limited stuff I've read, I think the biggest threat to any company, from Amazon is their plan for home delivery, especially with drones. People would be such suckers for that. Consumers would compromise quality and value to have something home-delivered. Sadly, people just don't like to leave their house. They want to stay in the A/C. Perhaps people on food stamps would even pay cash for home delivery if they don't have a car and have no way out to the grocery store. Air traffic regulations regarding drones are still in the most primitive stage right now, and although  it may be in the distant future, I know it's part of Amazon's plan and if it truly is a practical long-term goal, it makes me think Kroger also needs to consider those high-tech initiatives.

 

One interesting thing about it though, is how the set-up of retail stores affect the psychology of the consumer. As you enter, you're immediately bombarded with stuff in front that you probably don't need but are tempted to buy because...well, we're human. The practical and cheap (often directly or indirectly subsidized) items such as produce, dairy (milk, eggs and whatnot) as well as grains - which Americans are led to believe they should consume a ridiculous amount of, as well as fresh meats (these departments are the main reason we go to these stores in the first place) are all on the fringes/ at the extremity of these giant stores. Their carefully engineered layout is very effective in terms of maximizing sales.  Home delivery eliminates any chance of using corporate psychology tactics but at the end of the day, we live in a very consumer-driven society where people know exactly what they want and demand it. Any company who doesn't comply with those demands will quickly become irrelevant and fade into obscurity. Even though Amazon isn't used to the grocery business, I feel like they understand the behavior of the consumer pretty well in that regard.

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