Jump to content
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

Guest grasscat

Ohio Congressional Redistricting / Gerrymandering

Recommended Posts

Ok Ohio you have 16 representatives.  Democrats got 60% of the vote so they get 10 reps, GOP gets 6. 

 

That's actually not how it typically plays out.  A rough math estimate in your scenario (D = 60% of statewide vote) would be for Democrats to win 70% of the seats/districts, or 11 reps of the 16. 

 

Podcast on it - https://art19.com/shows/today-explained/episodes/54e8a8ad-8d89-4ef6-a84a-fadc53035b49

 

Another one - https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/whos-gerry-and-why-he-so-bad-drawing-maps/

 

If you're a big time math nerd, the efficiency gap can be found here - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.10812.pdf and here - https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1946&context=public_law_and_legal_theory

 

Some more math - https://www.wired.com/story/the-math-behind-gerrymandering-and-wasted-votes/

 

More - https://www.wired.com/story/what-i-learned-at-gerrymandering-summer-camp/

 

I don't know about recent Ohio elections, but I know a common example used is Pennsylvania in 2012, where Democrats won 51% of the popular House vote but only won 5 out of the 18 House seats - less than 1/3.  The Wisconsin state map is another where in 2012 and 2014 Republicans won ~50% or less of the popular vote, but took more than 60% of the seats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm so fed up with it (on both sides) I'm ready for some sort of parliamentarian style representation.  Ok Ohio you have 16 representatives.  Democrats got 60% of the vote so they get 10 reps, GOP gets 6.  Now go to Congress and fight for what you believe in. 

 

I would love a system like this, but it would be illegal per current federal law. Currently each district is only allowed to have 1 representative. I think if would be great if Ohio could have 4 congressional districts and the top 4 vote getters in each district became our US reps. This would strike a nice balance between representing the unique needs of each geographic region of the state, making gerrymandering irrelevant, and making sure that minority political parties still have a voice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will have to donate some money to the ACLU.  Does anyone know if they sell your personal info to 3rd party marketing affiliates?  I would fear the worst from them...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will have to donate some money to the ACLU.  Does anyone know if they sell your personal info to 3rd party marketing affiliates?  I would fear the worst from them...

 

I was a member for about 4 years, but that was in the early aughts and things could be different now.  Back then, yes, I did get mail (hard copy mail ... those were the days ...) from third parties that would be generally identified as ideological fellow travelers of the ACLU, and I can only assume based on the timing of when I started receiving those mailings that it was related to my signing up for an ACLU membership.  Americans United for Separation of Church and State was a big one I remember.  There were a few others.  I don't remember it being a huge burden, though, just a little bit more junk mail to recycle.  These days it would probably be mostly more easily ignored e-mails, though I'm guessing a greater volume simply because e-mail is so cheap to send.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I gave a small donation to them on November 10, 2016, and they sent a ton of "DONT LET TRUMP DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY... GIVE US MONEY" mail through 2017. Seems to have slowed down now. Don't recall any third party stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I gave a small donation to them on November 10, 2016, and they sent a ton of "DONT LET TRUMP DESTROY OUR DEMOCRACY... GIVE US MONEY" mail through 2017. Seems to have slowed down now. Don't recall any third party stuff.

 

I meant to donate to their foundation (501©3 vs 501©4 - the latter is not tax deductible) and I think it went to the 501©4.  Either way, I got a little sticker and a member card and a pamphlet asking me to subscribe to stay up to date, yada yada yada.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the proposal to split California into 3 states is an attempt to gain Republican senators and break up the 55 Democrat electoral college votes. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44471277

 

That could seriously backfire.  I wouldn't consider it outside the realm of possibility that the Democrats would pick up 5 or even 6 of the 6 Senate seats between the three Californias.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the proposal to split California into 3 states is an attempt to gain Republican senators and break up the 55 Democrat electoral college votes. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44471277

 

That could seriously backfire.  I wouldn't consider it outside the realm of possibility that the Democrats would pick up 5 or even 6 of the 6 Senate seats between the three Californias.

 

Yea, if you click through to the actual study you see that Hillary would've won all three Californias. Northern California and California would be the most Democratic states in the country. Southern California would be a battleground state but still lean Dem (and getting more Democratic every day).

 

pres_cal.png.00142a16f034c8141ebd9095cd139871.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It won't backfire if the states are Coastal California, Inland Primercamaro and San Diego M.Z.

 

Boom, instant 4 more R Senators

 

That's not what's being proposed though. They're proposing Northern California centered around the Bay Area, California centered around LA, and Southern California centered around San Diego.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Splitting off San Bernadino and Orange Counties into a completely separate state from L.A. County seems like it would have some major economic consequences.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It won't backfire if the states are Coastal California, Inland Primercamaro and San Diego M.Z.

 

Boom, instant 4 more R Senators

 

It would be a wash. You add 2 states. One dark blue the other one purple. Assuming the purple state is 2 GOP Senators, there is a zero net gain.

 

It is actually good for both parties. The GOP can win because it puts in play a portion of CA electoral votes and they get the chance to secure additional house and senate seats in the state.

 

The Dems can gain by getting 2 additional senate seats and grow their house advantage

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

It was interesting to see the “good” and “bad” maps that were produced following the new rules.

 

I would be ecstatic if something like the best case scenario map was produced. Only time will tell I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand why people want to avoid splitting up city boundaries, but that rule kinda creates a weird situation around Columbus. If, by 2020, Columbus doesn't surpass the average population for a congressional district, it'll all be drawn into one weird zig-zaggy district along the border of the city of Columbus. I think it would make more sense to split the metro more evenly (thus splitting the city since the city of Columbus is so sprawling and encompasses such a huge portion of its metro area). Fingers crossed that Columbus's rapid growth continues so that it surpasses the population of the average congressional district by 2020. 

 

But regardless, the maps under the new rules are clearly improvements over what we are currently stuck with. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a question:

 

I thought Ohio gerrymandering was voted down by the voters for both Ohio state districts and US Congressional districts the past couple elections?

 

Is it over? Is the fight really not over? I thought that they were going to be at lease SOMEWHAT more fairly drawn in 2021 or something.

 

I'm pretty dumb about the order of events and what's yet to come. Is there a good summary post I'm missing or can someone help me out? Thank you so much!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The districts will be redrawn after the 2020 census results come out. I believe that means approval in 2021 and using them for 2022 elections (at least the general). It remains to be seen how helpful the new laws will be, but there are reasons to be skeptical.

 

If there isn't bipartisan agreement on the new districts, the majority in the legislature can pass a map that's valid for 4-years instead of 10-years. Some would predict that this will become the new normal: redistricting every 4 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×