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Ohio Congressional Redistricting / Gerrymandering

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This is one of the reforms being pushed by Reform Ohio Now, which is in a separate thread.  I created this thread to look at redistricting specifically.

 

I found several stories.  The first one is from the 8/14/05 Toledo Blade:

 

 

Reform seeks to remove politics from remapping districts

By JIM PROVANCE

BLADE COLUMBUS BUREAU

 

COLUMBUS - On Oct. 3, 1991, three Republicans and two Democrats voted along party lines on a map that would change the landscape of Ohio government for the next decade.

 

It was a moment that Republicans had long prepared. The party pushed for George Voinovich as governor in 1990 and pressured his potential primary challenger, Bob Taft, into running instead for secretary of state. With the election victories of Mr. Voinovich and Mr. Taft, the Republicans were guaranteed a majority on the panel that would redraw state legislative districts after the 1990 U.S. Census.

 

Two election cycles later, the GOP had gained control of both chambers of the General Assembly for the first time in more than two decades. In 2001, that newfound majority pulled out its pencil to gerrymander Ohio's congressional districts and saw to it that the 20th district the state was losing because of its slow population growth belonged to a Democrat.

 

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Also from the 8/14/05 Toledo Blade:

 

 

'Competitive' state districts may affect black politicians

By JIM PROVANCE

BLADE COLUMBUS BUREAU

 

COLUMBUS - Edna Brown represents what is considered one of the safest Democratic districts in the Ohio House.

 

The inner-city Toledo district ranks eighth of 99 in African-American voting-age population at 45 percent and seventh in overall minority voters at 51 percent. Republicans did not field a challenger last fall.

 

A proposed constitutional amendment that could be on the Nov. 8 ballot would make creating politically "competitive" districts the top priority when redrawing legislative districts, a move that leaves African-Americans wondering what would happen to districts that now virtually guarantee election of blacks to the Ohio House.

 

Read More...

 

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From the 8/16/05 Enquirer:

 

 

Push on to make race of elections

Incumbents almost never lose in House

By Malia Rulon

Enquirer Washington Bureau

 

WASHINGTON - Only one House incumbent from Kentucky has lost a bid for re-election in the last decade. In Ohio, a state with substantially more House members than Kentucky, the same holds true.

 

One reason for the lack of turnover is that congressional districts in both states are drawn up in a highly partisan process that's designed to keep incumbents safe, or at least make sure the same party continues to control the seat.

 

Consider the recent 2nd District special election. Although the final vote was closer than expected - Republican Jean Schmidt beat Democrat Paul Hackett with 52 percent of the vote - she benefited because the district has a much higher percentage of Republican voters. Voters in Ohio don't register by party, but the 2004 presidential election gives a hint of the district's GOP tilt: President Bush won the district with 64 percent of the vote.

 

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The Washington Post has taken notice (8/26/05):

 

 

Carving Up Ohio

By Brian Faler

Friday, August 26, 2005; Page A04

 

As California goes, so goes Ohio? The Buckeye State is awaiting word on whether it will become the second state, in addition to California, to vote this fall on whether to change the way it draws congressional districts.

 

A Democratic-leaning group called Reform Ohio Now has submitted more than 500,000 signatures to put a handful of proposals on the state's November ballot, including one that would take the power to draw those districts from state lawmakers and give it to an independent panel. "We want our citizens to have meaningful choices again," said Reform Ohio Now's Herb Asher, who added that he hoped the recent spate of scandals involving Republican state officials would put some wind behind the effort.

 

Ohio lawmakers, like those in nearly every state, use detailed voting information to bunch their supporters in often oddly shaped districts that promote the reelection of incumbents and defeat of the other party's candidates. Critics complain that the practice leads not only to uncompetitive elections but also to government gridlock, because lawmakers end up worrying more about their base than voters elsewhere on the political spectrum.

 

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From the 9/30/05 Toledo Blade:

 

 

Foes of redistricting plan in Ohio warn of disaster

By JIM PROVANCE

BLADE COLUMBUS BUREAU

 

COLUMBUS - Opponents of a proposed constitutional amendment overhauling how Ohio redraws congressional and legislative districts attempted to make their point yesterday that mixing Republican red and Democratic blue to create competitive purple on a map would have disastrous results for the state.

 

The Republican-dominated Ohio First Inc. said it created a congressional map by using the mathematical formula and ideals contained in Issue 4 set for the Nov. 8 ballot. Ohio First is the nonprofit organization quietly created in July to fight proposed constitutional reforms of Ohio's election system

 

The resulting map creates several narrow districts snaking nearly from Pennsylvania to Indiana and dividing numerous counties.

 

Read More...

 

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I don't know how accurate that group is being, but the kind of reverse gerrymandering, if you will, that they're talking about doesn't sound so great, although it's probably better than regular gerrymandering.  By reverse gerrymandering I mean creating weird districts in an effort to force them to be competitive.  It would be nice if the districts somehow actually related to population centers, like not splitting metro Dayton among three districts when most of it could fit into one, etc.

 

I guess I'll have to go read all the details on the plan.

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^ I agree with you totally.  I believe that districts should be drawn to reflect commonalities amongst the people living within it.  Making them competitive just for the sake of being competitive isn't any better that the current system.

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Here's an interesting idea.  From the 10/3/05 Dayton Daily News:

 

 

Putting Ohio back together

By the Columbus Bureau

 

COLUMBUS | Angela Cardwell, 18, of Columbus was the winner last week in Reform Ohio Now's contest to "Put Ohio Together Again."

 

It took Cardwell 3 minutes, 40 seconds to put a jigsaw puzzle together with pieces shaped like state senate districts during a contest outside the Statehouse.

 

Politicians, according to Reform Ohio Now, have "gone to great lengths" to create odd-shaped districts that help incumbents get re-elected. RON is the coalition — dominated by Democrats, unions and advocacy groups — that has put four election-related constitutional amendments on the Nov. 8 ballot. One would change how state legislative and congressional districts are drawn.

 

Cardwell's prize was a $50 gift certificate for Morton's Steakhouse, the Columbus restaurant where Tom Noe, the rare-coin dealer under investigation in the Bureau of Workers' Compensation investment controversy, used to wine and dine pals, including some from Gov. Bob Taft's administration.

 

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From the 10/18/05 Dayton Daily News:

 

 

GRAPHS: 2004 election results

 

Ohio voters evenly divided among parties

But system favors majority party, which draws boundaries

By William Hershey

Dayton Daily News

 

COLUMBUS | Ohio's not politically uncompetitive. It's just drawn that way.

 

The state has a history of lopsided elections for Congress and the state legislature, but if you tally all the Republican and Democratic votes cast last November for the U.S. House and the Ohio House, you find Ohio is split nearly 50-50 — much as the presidential vote showed.

 

For instance, in 99 Ohio House races last year, Republicans got 50.79 percent of the overall vote; Democrats got 48.47 percent. Republicans, however, won 59 of the individual races — nearly 60 percent.

 

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From the 10/22/05 Dayton Daily News:

 

 

Reform Ohio maps outs its proposal

It shows how its plan would change House districts

By William Hershey

Dayton Daily News

 

COLUMBUS | Reform Ohio Now, the group supporting four election-related constitutional amendments on the Nov. 8 ballot, struck back Friday in the battle of the maps.

 

The group released two maps of Ohio's 18 U.S. House districts drawn under the amendment that would change how Ohio's state legislative and U.S. House districts are drawn.

 

The formula used under the amendment makes political competitiveness a top priority in drawing districts. It is not a factor in the current system.

 

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From the AP, 10/26/05:

 

 

Issue 4 supporters cite study to support their stand

Associated Press

 

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Supporters of Issue 4 in the Nov.8 election jumped on a new study as proof that competitive legislative and congressional elections have become almost nonexistent in Ohio.

 

The study written by Derek Cressman, founder of an online nonpartisan government watchdog group, said election results last year showed that district boundaries are rigged to favor one party.

 

The candidate favored by the partisan composition of the district won in 115 out of 126 districts considered safe or leaning safe for either the Republican or Democratic parties, according to the study.

 

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From the 10/27/05 Akron Beacon Journal:

 

 

Issue's allies, foes court black voters

Legislative caucus opts to support new way of drawing up districts

By Dennis J. Willard and Doug Oplinger

Beacon Journal staff writers

 

COLUMBUS - Ohio's 875,000 voting-age black citizens are in the middle of a tug of war over four election-reform issues on the statewide ballot.

 

Both sides of the campaign consider the African-American community an important source of votes and see a marketing ally in a political fight that could cost as much as $10 million by the Nov. 8 election.

 

Interviews and public records show that both Reform Ohio Now, proponents of the reform measures, and the Republican-led opposition group Ohio First Voter Education Fund worked to win the endorsement of black lawmakers in the Ohio legislature as a first step.

 

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At last, the Dayton Daily News has some of the maps produced by RON and by the opponents.  They have other info as well, including the scoring of these maps.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/opinion/content/opinion/issue4.html

 

That page is not especially clear on what's what, but I'll present what I think these things are.

 

First, the current congressional districts.  Incidentally, the 6th district is considered "competitive" in the RON scoring.  The 2nd, 4th, 5th, 11th, and 18th are "unbalanced uncompetitive."  (Although I'd think the recent election in the 2nd might change the picture a bit.)

51516964.jpg

 

This one is a map produced by RON.  It scores a 22.

51516966.jpg

 

I believe the next two are from the opposing group(s)

51516963.jpg

 

51516967.jpg

 

I am not really sure what this is supposed to represent.  The DDN had "middle ground" as the filename.  I guess maybe the point is that normal-looking districts don't score as well as weird ones.

51516965.jpg

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Oh, and my opinion:  I think they all kind of suck.  (Especially the insane, snaking districts used as the boogeyman by the issue's foes, but I trust that realistically those would not be implemented, given that there are obviously multiple solutions.)

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From the 11/2/05 Akron Beacon Journal:

 

 

GOP has a lot riding on Issue 4

Drawing of district lines can determine who holds power; converse also is true

By Dennis J. Willard and Doug Oplinger

Beacon Journal staff writers

 

COLUMBUS - To maintain the ironclad lock on their majority in the 132-seat Ohio General Assembly, Republicans have tapped government employees for help and have enlisted colleagues in Congress to raise money outside the state for a multimillion-dollar campaign.

 

The threat to their power is state Issue 4, a proposed amendment to Ohio's Constitution that would abolish the shaping of legislative districts to guarantee victory for candidates of the party in power.

 

Instead, a bipartisan committee would review and score proposed maps for state and federal legislative districts.

 

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Though the amendment was defeated, this will remain an issue.  From the 11/10/05 Dayton Daily News:

 

 

OHIO ISSUES

DeWine to work on proposals for redistricting

By William Hershey

Dayton Daily News

 

COLUMBUS — State Rep. Kevin DeWine will lead a broad, statewide effort to come up with proposals to improve Ohio's system of drawing state legislative and U.S. House districts, House Speaker Jon Husted, R-Kettering, said Wednesday.

 

In a related development, DeWine, R-Fairborn, said he is backing legislation to prohibit an elected secretary of state from participating in partisan political activity, except his or her own campaign.

 

Both announcements came a day after voters overwhelmingly rejected proposed constitutional amendments to change the redistricting process with the goal of making districts more politically competitive and to set up an appointed, bipartisan commission to administer elections, replacing the elected secretary of state in that role.

 

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From the 11/15/05 Toledo Blade:

 

 

Leaders eye redistricting compromise

By JIM PROVANCE

BLADE COLUMBUS BUREAU

 

COLUMBUS - Less than a week after a plan to change how Ohio redraws congressional and legislative districts failed miserably at the polls, both sides of the fight yesterday began preliminary discussions about a potential compromise.

 

The meeting lasted 45 minutes, and there was no commitment from House Speaker Jon Husted (R., Kettering) that the General Assembly will consider placing a new plan before voters.

 

"If we were able to accomplish it, it would require broad-based, bipartisan support from the Republican and Democratic parties at the state and local levels," he said. "Business groups and labor would have to be supportive.

 

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At last, the Dayton Daily News has some of the maps produced by RON and by the opponents.  They have other info as well, including the scoring of these maps.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/opinion/content/opinion/issue4.html

 

That page is not especially clear on what's what, but I'll present what I think these things are.

 

First, the current congressional districts.  Incidentally, the 6th district is considered "competitive" in the RON scoring.  The 2nd, 4th, 5th, 11th, and 18th are "unbalanced uncompetitive."  (Although I'd think the recent election in the 2nd might change the picture a bit.)

51516964.jpg

 

This one is a map produced by RON.  It scores a 22.

51516966.jpg

 

I believe the next two are from the opposing group(s)

51516963.jpg

 

51516967.jpg

 

I am not really sure what this is supposed to represent.  The DDN had "middle ground" as the filename.  I guess maybe the point is that normal-looking districts don't score as well as weird ones.

51516965.jpg

 

Those are some of the craziest districts I've ever seen.  And what still makes me mad is that only one of those maps actually includes the location of my family's house with the city it has an address in!  In all other cases, we would share the same zip code, but have different representatives!  Pretty stupid considering the entire zip code only has a population of about 25,000!

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From the 1/20/06 Dayton Daily News:

 

 

Redistricting plan being considered

Voters may be asked to OK constitutional amendment

By Laura A. Bischoff

Dayton Daily News

 

COLUMBUS | Ohio voters, for the second year in a row, may be asked to approve a constitutional amendment to change how legislative and congressional districts are drawn.

 

House Speaker Jon Husted, R-Kettering, said Thursday that House Republicans are collaborating with interest groups to come up with a fair way of doing it.

 

Every 10 years, following the U.S. Census, the five member state apportionment board approves Ohio's legislative districts.

 

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This article appeared in the 3/3/06 Toledo Blade:

 

 

Ohio redistricting issue nears compromise

Legislators aiming to have amendment on Nov. ballot

BLADE COLUMBUS BUREAU

 

COLUMBUS - House Republicans and backers of last year's failed election-reform ballot issues are closing in on a compromise to revamp how Ohio redraws congressional and legislative districts.

 

The proposal on the table for negotiation would create a seven-member panel - two Republicans, two Democrats, and three independents - to adjust district boundaries based on population shifts reflected in each U.S. Census every 10 years.

 

The three independents would be selected by a unanimous vote of the four partisan representatives named to the panel. No elected official could serve, and a super-majority vote of five would be needed to approve a map.

 

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From the 5/5/06 Dispatch:

 

 

Redistricting reform, round 2

House speaker foresees more-balanced districts; Democrats unimpressed

Friday, May 05, 2006

Jim Siegel

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

House Republicans unveiled a plan yesterday to take gerrymandering out of a district-drawing process that can strongly affect how many Democrats or Republicans are elected to Ohio offices.

 

A bipartisan, seven-member committee would be put in charge of drawing legislative and congressional district boundaries under the plan, which needs a three-fifths majority to pass both legislative chambers, and then voter approval in November.

 

Approving a map would require votes from five of the seven members, four of whom would be appointed by GOP and Democratic legislative leaders. Those four must unanimously select the other three members.

 

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From the 5/24/06 Dispatch:

 

 

Redistricting bill has critics

Some senators unsure of House GOP plan

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Jim Siegel

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

Even if House Democrats provide the votes to pass a Republican plan to dramatically overhaul the drawing of state and congressional districts, Senate Republicans continue to show little enthusiasm for such a change.

 

The Dispatch spoke to nine of 22 Republican senators, and only one, David Goodman, of New Albany, said definitively that the current line-drawing system needs changing and that the House proposal is the right way to do it.

 

"I like the House approach because it’s a more bipartisan process," Goodman said. "I think our districts need to be more realistic compared to the general public we represent, and not just drawn for partisan political expediency."

 

Read More...

 

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Democrats may block overhaul of districting

Bill would give new panel power to draw voting boundaries

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Jim Siegel

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

 

Despite a chorus of groups and individuals calling for an overhaul of the way Ohio draws state and federal voting districts, House Democrats stood united against the bill yesterday.

 

They were unable to stop the legislation from passing out of committee 12-7. But if they remain united today, Democrats can stop it from garnering the three-fifths majority vote in the full House needed to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot. The prospects of the measure are highly uncertain there as well as in the Senate, which will consider it in August at the earliest.

 

Former Democratic state Rep. Ed Jerse, a member of a coalition that failed to win voter approval of a redistricting plan last year, told the House Rules and Reference Committee that he would vote for the bill were he still in the legislature.

 

Read More...

 

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From the 5/26/06 Dispatch:

 

 

Redistricting plans rejected

Democrats vote down GOP plan, then their own

Friday, May 26, 2006

Jim Siegel

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

House Democrats refused yesterday to approve a GOP plan that could have dramatically altered Ohio’s politically gerrymandered districts by putting the mapping process in the hands of a bipartisan, independent panel.

 

Because they are in the minority at the Statehouse, it was a rare opportunity for Democrats to control the outcome of a vote on a bill. And then the Democrats rejected their own similar plan, prompting Republicans to accuse Democrats of putting politics ahead of good government.

 

"If you believe that one-party control of state government is wrong, as I’ve heard people comment about many times, you cannot vote ‘no’ and preserve the very system that created it," Speaker Jon A. Husted, R-Kettering, said during a rare floor speech. "If you do, you lose the right to complain about it."

 

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Starting off a thread header on what could be a long thread:

 

The DDN reports:

 

It's Official, Ohio to Lose Two US House Seats

 

It’s official: Ohio will lose two seats in the U.S. House, reducing the House delegation from 18 to 16 members, according to 2010 U.S. Census data released Tuesday in Washington, D.C.

 

Ohio and New York are the only states losing two seats. The states losing seats were mostly in the northeast and Midwest.

 

As a result of the November election, Republicans will control Ohio’s U.S. House delegation next year, 13-5.

 

I guess this will be an opportunity for to get rid of Kucinich, which I am sure will thrill certain posters at this forum (and not just the conservative or Republican ones).

 

 

 

 

 

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The enquirer had an interesting article on it. Some republican strategists thought they would eliminate one Democratic seat and one Republican seat becuase it would be unfair for the Democrats to have to bear the complete brunt of the redistricting.

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Redistricting "strategies" are complex and not always apparent on the surface.  But I have been pleasantly surprised by the sentiment the Enquirer article expressed, which I heard somewhere else as well.

 

I remember when there was a big controversy in North Carolina about gerrymandering.  What the Republican legislature did there was create a district which was something like 2 miles wide and 50 miles long.  It ran on both sides of I-85.  Proponents claimed it guaranteed a minority rep because the property values next to the highway are so low.  But opponents claimed it was simply an attempt to dilute the minority vote from the 10 or so districts from which it was being sliced.  It was a complicated issue to say the least.  I believe the Supreme Court eventually struck it down.

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The enquirer had an interesting article on it. Some republican strategists thought they would eliminate one Democratic seat and one Republican seat becuase it would be unfair for the Democrats to have to bear the complete brunt of the redistricting.

 

Before I give anyone credit for acting out of "fairness," I'd be curious to know if it's even mathematically possible to eliminate two safe dem seats in Ohio.  Plus, the interests of the GOP incumbents is actually against breaking up dem districts, because it means adding more dem votes to their districts, making them less safe for their reelection.  And self preservation is priority one for most incumbents.

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I was being facetious with my comment about fairness. They are going to cut Kucinich's district because it is the most vulernable one to cut and then they will cut a Republican district to strengthen the incumbents position (Probably look to strenghen Renciarri)

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Kucinich's district is DOA because Civil Rights law don't allow anti-minority gerrymandering, which means that even if they wanted to, they can't 'crack' the east side of Cleveland. Instead, it'll expand slightly in area, and Sutton's district will absorb most of Kucinich's.

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I agree on Kucinich. I'd expect the Ohio River district - Strickland's old one to go away and be divided between many other districts. That was a swing district that leaned Dem - so I'd expect that to go. The other possibility - depending on the final data would be in the Toledo or Youngstown areas.

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^Agreed, definitely not both.  Eliminating the Youngstown seat would pretty much guarantees that one or more of Latourette (14th), Johnson (6th) or Renacci (16th) lose their jobs in 2012.  Just too many non-GOP voters there to try to crack.  For a state that's still pretty close to 50-50 in terms of overall voting, it's just really hard for me to imagine any redistricting scenario that makes the congressional delegation more lopsided than it is now.  Without risking a drastic swing the other way in a few years, anyway.

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Per one of his interviews, Kucinich seem to be a good sport about his district being vulnerable.  He plans on staying in Congress regardless of the outcome.  Regardless of which side of the isle you're on, you've got to give him props for his spirit over the years.

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Kucinich and Sutton lose their districts. Kucinich is likely done; Sutton will have a fighting chance. Democrats are shoved into urban Columbus, Republicans dominate the suburbs. Same old, same old. I hate gerrymandering.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/09/new_remap_will_give_democrats.html

 

Democrats will lose two congressional seats in northeast Ohio under a remapping plan that will be introduced in Ohio's legislature later this week, but will gain a new seat in Columbus that's being designed to shift Republicans who now represent the city into safer suburban seats.

Republican and Democratic sources say that in northeast Ohio, the plan will shift Copley Democrat Betty Sutton into a largely Republican district that's being constructed to favor the re-election of freshman GOP Rep. Jim Renacci of Wadsworth.

The western Cuyahoga County power base of Cleveland Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich will go into a distict that snakes along Lake Erie from Toledo and is designed to favor the re-election of longtime Toledo Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur.

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Reminds me of the time in NC that they created a district along I-85 that was 100 or so miles in length but only a few miles long (i.e. where all the cheap land was).  The idea was to take those democratic votes out of the republican districts, and they thought it was better to give them one district than to have them influence 10 others.  I want to say that the SCOTUS struck that down upon review.

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The changes in southwest Ohio have made for 3 heavily Republican favored seats.  John Boehner grabbed some liberal areas, but not enough to make a dent in his base, while the 1st district picked up swaths of Boehner’s old land.  It was fairly close in the past few elections, but will now be heavily conservative. Chabot, Schmidt and Boehner should all be around awhile.

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Wow. Talk about gerrymandering! Cuyahoga County gets represented by 4 districts, essentially diluting the vote outward. Absolutely absurd that Fairview Park, Lakewood, and the west shore of Cleveland all get represented by different districts.

 

Westlake and Parma get lumped with Canton and Kent?!?

 

Avon gets lumped with Massillon and Coshocton?!?

 

Whatever happened to preserving counties and keeping geographic regions intact? Regardless of what party actually represents these districts its going to be a real challenge to keep constituent's backgrounds and regions in mind when the areas that are represented are so vastly different.

 

District 9 is utterly absurd. Basically a run off between a Toledo dem candidate or Cleveland dem candidate with Sandusky deciding if they are more like Toledo or Cleveland. Same with District 11, Akron democrats versus Cleveland democrats. Essentially, the democratic primaries for these districts are the actual election.

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