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Wow - I only saw pieces, but it was nice to see the Reds recalibrate Josh Johnsons' ERA.  He must have been a bad luck pitcher based on his record.  I am now contemplating adding a second favorite team, just in case.

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That was a nice rebound win again the Marlins.  It looks like these next two weeks could make or break the Reds playoff hopes.  Especially the nine game west coast road trip that starts next week.

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The Reds should have this in the bag. STL last off day was thursday until we meet again in sept in STL. That's going to be a tired bunch.  They have a makeup game at Florida. Florida has a Monday night football game. I heard they are trying to have the game played in STL which would be BS. STL would have played in 31 straight games before the Reds series in STL.

 

I don't feel sorry for them one bit. lol but the game better not be in STL.

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The Reds won again last night. Since being swept by the Cardinals at GABP they are 6-0, have notched 2 series sweeps, and have gained 4.5 games on the Cards to stretch their NLC lead to 3.5 games.There is still plenty of baseball to play, and anything can happen, but with another week like the one they just experienced and this central division race will be over. GO REDS!!!

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The Reds have rebounded very well since being swept by the Cards.  Conventional wisdom would have expected the Reds to be demoralized and Cards energized after that.  But instead, the Reds go on a six game win streak and the Cards drop four in a row.  The Reds are good - but I'm beginning to think they're also having the kind of charmed season that leads to the pennant:

 

- SS Cabrera gets an extended injury and his replacement Janish hits over .300

- 3B Rolen gets an extended injury and his replacement Cairo plays great

- Cueto gets suspended and his replacement Homer Bailey pitches a great game after an extended stay on the DL

- C Hernandez looks like he's headed for season-ending surgery. Not only doesn't he need the surgery, but he's hitting over .300 and playing great.

- Votto gets back spasms Tuesday and his replacement Edmonds gets a double and home run.

 

It seems like the normal things that knock teams out of pennants races haven't knocked down the Reds this year.  Talent alone doesn't win the pennant.  Talent and some luck do win the pennant.

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Reds just took 2 of 3 at LA.  Not bad after going 0-12 in LA since 2006!  Still up 3.5 from the Cards.  Next up SF and then home for a weekend series against the Cubs.

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The Reds have rebounded very well since being swept by the Cards. Conventional wisdom would have expected the Reds to be demoralized and Cards energized after that. But instead, the Reds go on a six game win streak and the Cards drop four in a row. The Reds are good - but I'm beginning to think they're also having the kind of charmed season that leads to the pennant:

 

- SS Cabrera gets an extended injury and his replacement Janish hits over .300

- 3B Rolen gets an extended injury and his replacement Cairo plays great

- Cueto gets suspended and his replacement Homer Bailey pitches a great game after an extended stay on the DL

- C Hernandez looks like he's headed for season-ending surgery. Not only doesn't he need the surgery, but he's hitting over .300 and playing great.

- Votto gets back spasms Tuesday and his replacement Edmonds gets a double and home run.

 

It seems like the normal things that knock teams out of pennants races haven't knocked down the Reds this year. Talent alone doesn't win the pennant. Talent and some luck do win the pennant.

 

Eh, some of those aren't lucky.  Check out the redlegnation.com website.  Janish is a superior fielder to Cabrera and hits just as well, at least right now.  That was probably an improvement when he got in the lineup.  As for Homer, he was coming off the DL and was going back into the rotation after tearing it up at Louisville--the writing was on the wall at that point for Leake to move to the bullpen, because he'd been getting hit hard for about two months.  Cairo has been a nice surprise, filling in very well. 

 

On the other hand, it's easy to say that with better production from their outfield, they'd be even better.  Stubbs has been borderline terrible all year; Bruce just had a horrible slump, though he looks good the past couple weeks; and Gomes has been really not very good the past two and a half months. 

 

The Reds have a solid run differential, adequate to good starting pitching, a decent enough bullpen, and lead the league in runs.  They're right about where they should be. 

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The Reds have a solid run differential, adequate to good starting pitching, a decent enough bullpen, and lead the league in runs. They're right about where they should be.

 

They've outperformed their run differential by one game, while the Cardinals have underperformed by five games (worst amongst teams that are in contention).  I'd say that the Reds are a little bit "lucky" in regards to the latter.

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Luck is an essential component to any successful team.  No matter how good a team is, you're always gonna need a little luck to get the job done.

 

However, I was at the game in LA yesterday, and I have to say that the Reds played a great, sound game, and really looked like a playoff caliber team.  Joey Votto battled the Dodgers closer for 10 pitches in the 9th, loaded up the count, and then delivered a 2 RBI base hit. Go Reds!

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The Reds have a solid run differential, adequate to good starting pitching, a decent enough bullpen, and lead the league in runs.  They're right about where they should be. 

 

They've outperformed their run differential by one game, while the Cardinals have underperformed by five games (worst amongst teams that are in contention).  I'd say that the Reds are a little bit "lucky" in regards to the latter.

 

I think technically you'd say that the Cardinals have been "unlucky" in that regard--the Reds record is pretty much where it should be according to the math.  I guess you could say the Reds are lucky that the Cards have been unlucky, but the Reds own record is not "lucky." 

 

Run differential is an interesting thing--witness yesterday's 9-0 win by the Cards.  What does that give them, plus 1 or 2 wins just based on that one game?  I think that it is obviously pretty predictive in the long run, but doesn't necessarily take into account completely (or well) those sort of swings.  Just my two cents, though. 

 

(Not that you care, but I think a lot of the Cards' problems are their own doing.  I have to believe that the current lineup they have been using--Pedro Feliz batting 5th!  Are you kidding me!--is one of the weakest offensive lineups of any contending team.  It is almost a crime that they have two number ones (Wainwright and Carpenter), a solid 3 pitching like a 2 (Garcia), the best player in baseball, and Holliday, and aren't a playoff lock.  I blame LaRussa and the management for that.  Though as a Reds fan, I am not complaining.) 

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The Reds have a solid run differential, adequate to good starting pitching, a decent enough bullpen, and lead the league in runs.  They're right about where they should be. 

 

They've outperformed their run differential by one game, while the Cardinals have underperformed by five games (worst amongst teams that are in contention).  I'd say that the Reds are a little bit "lucky" in regards to the latter.

 

I think technically you'd say that the Cardinals have been "unlucky" in that regard--the Reds record is pretty much where it should be according to the math.  I guess you could say the Reds are lucky that the Cards have been unlucky, but the Reds own record is not "lucky." 

 

Run differential is an interesting thing--witness yesterday's 9-0 win by the Cards.  What does that give them, plus 1 or 2 wins just based on that one game?  I think that it is obviously pretty predictive in the long run, but doesn't necessarily take into account completely (or well) those sort of swings.  Just my two cents, though. 

 

(Not that you care, but I think a lot of the Cards' problems are their own doing.  I have to believe that the current lineup they have been using--Pedro Feliz batting 5th!  Are you kidding me!--is one of the weakest offensive lineups of any contending team.  It is almost a crime that they have two number ones (Wainwright and Carpenter), a solid 3 pitching like a 2 (Garcia), the best player in baseball, and Holliday, and aren't a playoff lock.  I blame LaRussa and the management for that.  Though as a Reds fan, I am not complaining.) 

 

Yeah, I was saying that the Reds are lucky that the team they're battling with for the NL Central crown has had some of the worst luck (in regards to run differential) in MLB.

 

Run differential is a great predictor, but it's imperfect.  However it works pretty well over large sample sizes.  Glad to someone else at least familiar with the concept.  So many baseball fans seem completely oblivious to such great, newer forms of statistical analysis!

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However, I was at the game in LA yesterday, and I have to say that the Reds played a great, sound game, and really looked like a playoff caliber team.  Joey Votto battled the Dodgers closer for 10 pitches in the 9th, loaded up the count, and then delivered a 2 RBI base hit. Go Reds!

 

That Votto at-bat was epic. It was a stop-everything-your-doing moment, something special is going on here. It was the talk of the office. Votto in the running for MVP and Triple Crowd, great stuff.

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lol ... Rider, you kill me with this "luck" talk. I didn't realize until a couple of days ago from an Enquirer article - the Reds have the fewest errors than any MLB team right now.

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Matt Cain ends winless stretch as Giants topple NL Central-leading Reds

 

Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO -- The San Francisco Giants scored all of seven runs in three games over the weekend in St. Louis and only one over the two games they lost to end the series. They lost the finale Sunday 9-0.

 

 

On Monday night, the Giants looked like a different team entirely -- and bouncing back was crucial for a club hoping to stay in the playoff chase.

 

Matt Cain ended a three-start winless stretch after being staked to an early cushion, Andres Torres hit a two-run homer and the Giants beat the Cincinnati Reds 11-2.

 

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=300823126

 

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The Reds have a solid run differential, adequate to good starting pitching, a decent enough bullpen, and lead the league in runs. They're right about where they should be.

 

They've outperformed their run differential by one game, while the Cardinals have underperformed by five games (worst amongst teams that are in contention). I'd say that the Reds are a little bit "lucky" in regards to the latter.

 

I think technically you'd say that the Cardinals have been "unlucky" in that regard--the Reds record is pretty much where it should be according to the math.   I guess you could say the Reds are lucky that the Cards have been unlucky, but the Reds own record is not "lucky."  

 

Run differential is an interesting thing--witness yesterday's 9-0 win by the Cards. What does that give them, plus 1 or 2 wins just based on that one game? I think that it is obviously pretty predictive in the long run, but doesn't necessarily take into account completely (or well) those sort of swings. Just my two cents, though.

 

(Not that you care, but I think a lot of the Cards' problems are their own doing. I have to believe that the current lineup they have been using--Pedro Feliz batting 5th! Are you kidding me!--is one of the weakest offensive lineups of any contending team. It is almost a crime that they have two number ones (Wainwright and Carpenter), a solid 3 pitching like a 2 (Garcia), the best player in baseball, and Holliday, and aren't a playoff lock. I blame LaRussa and the management for that. Though as a Reds fan, I am not complaining.)

 

Yeah, I was saying that the Reds are lucky that the team they're battling with for the NL Central crown has had some of the worst luck (in regards to run differential) in MLB.

 

Run differential is a great predictor, but it's imperfect. However it works pretty well over large sample sizes. Glad to someone else at least familiar with the concept. So many baseball fans seem completely oblivious to such great, newer forms of statistical analysis!

 

I agree it does work well over large sample sizes--but even then, you can see how quickly it can change in just a couple of days.  The Cards have picked up 26 runs in RD on the Reds in the past three games, basically.  A pretty big swing.  But it will even out. 

 

I'm ok with most of the SABR stuff.  I am pretty skeptical of defensive measurements just because they are absolutely all over the board.  I will be interested to see how Pujols and Votto end up stats-wise--they are neck and neck in so many of the key categories, it could be the best MVP race in a while. 

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The Reds have a solid run differential, adequate to good starting pitching, a decent enough bullpen, and lead the league in runs. They're right about where they should be.

 

They've outperformed their run differential by one game, while the Cardinals have underperformed by five games (worst amongst teams that are in contention). I'd say that the Reds are a little bit "lucky" in regards to the latter.

 

I think technically you'd say that the Cardinals have been "unlucky" in that regard--the Reds record is pretty much where it should be according to the math. I guess you could say the Reds are lucky that the Cards have been unlucky, but the Reds own record is not "lucky."

 

Run differential is an interesting thing--witness yesterday's 9-0 win by the Cards. What does that give them, plus 1 or 2 wins just based on that one game? I think that it is obviously pretty predictive in the long run, but doesn't necessarily take into account completely (or well) those sort of swings. Just my two cents, though.

 

(Not that you care, but I think a lot of the Cards' problems are their own doing. I have to believe that the current lineup they have been using--Pedro Feliz batting 5th! Are you kidding me!--is one of the weakest offensive lineups of any contending team. It is almost a crime that they have two number ones (Wainwright and Carpenter), a solid 3 pitching like a 2 (Garcia), the best player in baseball, and Holliday, and aren't a playoff lock. I blame LaRussa and the management for that. Though as a Reds fan, I am not complaining.)

 

Yeah, I was saying that the Reds are lucky that the team they're battling with for the NL Central crown has had some of the worst luck (in regards to run differential) in MLB.

 

Run differential is a great predictor, but it's imperfect. However it works pretty well over large sample sizes. Glad to someone else at least familiar with the concept. So many baseball fans seem completely oblivious to such great, newer forms of statistical analysis!

 

I agree it does work well over large sample sizes--but even then, you can see how quickly it can change in just a couple of days. The Cards have picked up 26 runs in RD on the Reds in the past three games, basically. A pretty big swing. But it will even out.

 

I'm ok with most of the SABR stuff. I am pretty skeptical of defensive measurements just because they are absolutely all over the board. I will be interested to see how Pujols and Votto end up stats-wise--they are neck and neck in so many of the key categories, it could be the best MVP race in a while.

 

It's so close you almost simply have to give it to the guy whose team wins the division.

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^I think that is probably what will happen, though Albert may have the added hurdle of writers just not wanting to keep giving it to the same guy, even if he is the best (sort of like all the other guys who won MVP awards while Michael Jordan was in his prime).  Votto is obviously very deserving, don't get me wrong--but I think there is always an undercurrent of "let's give it to someone else." 

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lol ... Rider, you kill me with this "luck" talk. 

 

And you kill me Cincinnatus with your obsession over my posts.  Despite this, I will continue root for Reds to win the pennant and to make the playoffs. 

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lol ... Rider, you kill me with this "luck" talk.

 

And you kill me Cincinnatus with your obsession over my posts. Despite this, I will continue root for Reds to win the pennant and to make the playoffs.

 

No obsession here, but if it makes you feel better ... assume away! ;)

 

 

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Why is it the Cards seem to lose against the teams the Reds win against, and vice versa? Very peculiar.

 

I don't watch that closely, but with the bit of attention I've been paying, that seems to be how it goes.

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Why is it the Cards seem to lose against the teams the Reds win against, and vice versa? Very peculiar.

 

I don't watch that closely, but with the bit of attention I've been paying, that seems to be how it goes.

 

That is weird, isn't it? I've thought about that too ... particularly the Cubs. I think Cards fans seriously think the Cubs roll over for us just to spite the Cards. lol

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Matt Cain ends winless stretch as Giants topple NL Central-leading Reds

 

Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO -- The San Francisco Giants scored all of seven runs in three games over the weekend in St. Louis and only one over the two games they lost to end the series. They lost the finale Sunday 9-0.

 

 

On Monday night, the Giants looked like a different team entirely -- and bouncing back was crucial for a club hoping to stay in the playoff chase.

 

Matt Cain ended a three-start winless stretch after being staked to an early cushion, Andres Torres hit a two-run homer and the Giants beat the Cincinnati Reds 11-2.

 

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=300823126

 

 

Thanks for posting an article about a game the Reds lost...really added a lot to the conversation.  Would you like me to post the game recap of every Indians loss?

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Matt Cain ends winless stretch as Giants topple NL Central-leading Reds

 

Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO -- The San Francisco Giants scored all of seven runs in three games over the weekend in St. Louis and only one over the two games they lost to end the series. They lost the finale Sunday 9-0.

 

 

On Monday night, the Giants looked like a different team entirely -- and bouncing back was crucial for a club hoping to stay in the playoff chase.

 

Matt Cain ended a three-start winless stretch after being staked to an early cushion, Andres Torres hit a two-run homer and the Giants beat the Cincinnati Reds 11-2.

 

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=300823126

 

 

Thanks for posting an article about a game the Reds lost...really added a lot to the conversation. Would you like me to post the game recap of every Indians loss?

 

I'm not sure UO has enough bandwidth for that!

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Man these Cleveburgh fans just cannot stay out of the Cincinnati threads - unbelievable.  You never want to give up a 10-1 lead, but to tie it in the 9th after falling behind and to win it in the 12th showed a lot of poise.

 

I'll take a 6-3 West Coast trip every time.

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^Exactly.  The Reds are at minimum 2.5 games in first (if the Pirates can hold this lead against the Cards it will be 3.5) after a 9 game West Coast road trip.  That is solid, especially considering how the Reds normally struggle against the West Coast teams. 

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A great trip, all in all.  6-3 on the West Coast?  3.5 games up?  I can't complain.

 

By the way, Cle17, I assume that you can't be pleased with these lineups that Tony LaRussa is trotting out there, can you?  If you don't already, you should check out www.vivaelbirdos.com.  It's a pretty good Cards blog.  To say they've been brutal about the Cards' offense lately would be kind. 

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Welcome to the SI jinx!

 

No cover jinx for Votto.  Two HR's and that 12th inning GW single in Wednesday's game. 

 

Or for Bruce.  3 HR's in tonight's win!

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