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Following on to what KJP posted, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics report for December shows Cleveland's adjusted numbers for workforce and employment HIGHER than the raw data for the first time in years.

 

Work Force   Employed  Unemployed - Cleveland MSA

1,031,269   995,141    36,128  3.5%    -    Preliminary raw data Dec, 2019

1,042,568   1,000,762  41,806  4.0%   -   Preliminary adjusted data Dec, 2019

 

The adjustment has almost invariably been downward since early in the last recession. I'm not sure what conclusion can be drawn unless it's an admission that their raw data has become less reliable.  I do know from talking to Census Bureau folks that personal (in person or by phone) data collection, especially in large urban areas, has become MUCH more difficult in the last 10 years.

 

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?la

Edited by Dougal

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1 hour ago, Dougal said:

Following on to what KJP posted, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics report for December shows Cleveland's adjusted numbers for workforce and employment HIGHER than the raw data for the first time in years.

 

Work Force   Employed  Unemployed - Cleveland MSA

1,031,269   995,141    36,128  3.5%    -    Preliminary raw data Dec, 2019

1,042,568   1,000,762  41,806  4.0%   -   Preliminary adjusted data Dec, 2019

 

The adjustment has almost invariably been downward since early in the last recession. I'm not sure what conclusion can be drawn unless it's an admission that their raw data has become less reliable.  I do know from talking to Census Bureau folks that personal (in person or by phone) data collection, especially in large urban areas, has become MUCH more difficult in the last 10 years.

 

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?la


Where are you seeing the adjusted data because when I go to the site all I see is the preliminary numbers. 

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8 hours ago, cle_guy90 said:


Where are you seeing the adjusted data because when I go to the site all I see is the preliminary numbers. 

 

I just looked again to make sure; both the raw and the adjusted data are showing (P) for preliminary next to the numbers at the present time.

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18 hours ago, Dougal said:

Following on to what KJP posted, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics report for December shows Cleveland's adjusted numbers for workforce and employment HIGHER than the raw data for the first time in years.

 

Work Force   Employed  Unemployed - Cleveland MSA

1,031,269   995,141    36,128  3.5%    -    Preliminary raw data Dec, 2019

1,042,568   1,000,762  41,806  4.0%   -   Preliminary adjusted data Dec, 2019

 

The adjustment has almost invariably been downward since early in the last recession. I'm not sure what conclusion can be drawn unless it's an admission that their raw data has become less reliable.  I do know from talking to Census Bureau folks that personal (in person or by phone) data collection, especially in large urban areas, has become MUCH more difficult in the last 10 years.

 

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?la


I think we are talking about two different things. The adjusted data is seasonally adjusted data and the December data adjusted would always be higher than the non adjusted. But both are preliminary. When they actually come out with the revised data hasn’t happened yet.

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On 1/25/2020 at 9:02 AM, cle_guy90 said:


I think we are talking about two different things. The adjusted data is seasonally adjusted data and the December data adjusted would always be higher than the non adjusted. But both are preliminary. When they actually come out with the revised data hasn’t happened yet.

 

Ok, I get what you're saying. Still, why is December an upward adjustment while the other months of 2019 and 2018 are downward? That says to me something is wrong with the CB's methodology of collection or adjustment.

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On 1/22/2020 at 12:01 AM, Dougal said:

^ Eaton's probably planning to BUY something else. I doubt they're under any pressure to raise cash otherwise.

 

Looking at Eaton's numbers, their long-term debt is about $7 billion, so the sale of hydraulics could pay off almost half of it, but their interest expense is no great burden. Hydraulics is, however, their least profitable business segment with a margin of just under 12%, while the other segments (not counting the tiny Emobility segment) are in the 18-25% range. In addition hydralics has a negative future growth projection.  Thus, it's a prudent business decision to sell it. The sale will have a significant positive effect on ROI/ROE.

 

While they may have a plan to buy something else, their history says the sale isn't necessarily motived by an immediate purchase need.

 

I wonder if Parker-Hannifin shares Eaton's view on the future of hydraulics.

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More good news. This is getting to be so-o-o boring.  😉

 

The airport updated their website data for 2019. We know about the pax numbers passing 10 million; the other great news is cargo. The Dec total was up just 5.0%, but that hides the fact emplaned cargo was up 10.56%, while deplaned cargo was up only 0.16% - which points to the continued growing strength of the Cleveland economy. Area 'exports' are growing much faster than 'imports'.

 

https://www.clevelandairport.com/about-us/facts-figures

Edited by Dougal

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^ I can’t go into details and it’s neither good nor bad news, but that export cargo bump is quite likely to be a one-off coming from a singular shipper.  

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And they reckon that the last thing she saw in her life was
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Parker-Hannifin: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot

 

January 30, 2020 at 7:53 AM EST - Updated January 30 at 7:53 AM

 

"CLEVELAND (AP) _ Parker-Hannifin Corp. (PH) on Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $204.5 million.

On a per-share basis, the Cleveland-based company said it had profit of $1.57. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, came to $2.54 per share. The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $2.29 per share."

 

https://www.fox19.com/2020/01/30/parker-hannifin-fiscal-q-earnings-snapshot/

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1 hour ago, roman totale XVII said:

^ I can’t go into details and it’s neither good nor bad news, but that export cargo bump is quite likely to be a one-off coming from a singular shipper.  

 

That's ok.  The trend has been true all year, but the bump up in December was much bigger. Even at the lower rates of prior months, the trend is still positive.

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9 hours ago, Sapper Daddy said:

 

It's nice to see the mayor present information I had in an article more than a month ago! 😉

 

 

Edited by KJP
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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Interesting stuff from the 2020 Mayor's Estimate:

 

Revenue from the Income Tax is projected to rise from $444 million in 2020 to $481 in 2024. If I'm figuring this right, this implies about a $1.48 billion increase in annual taxable income in the city in 4 years. This projection has been conservative in past years.

 

Land use,  current acreage(percent of total),  planned 2020 acreage(percent of total)

*Single/2 family housing   14,456 (29%)  16.496 (33.1%)

*Recreation/open space    3,495 (7%)   4,250 (8.5%)

*Vacant                                  2,755 (5.5%)  0 (0%)

*Retail                                    1,591 (3.2%)  1,349 (2.7%)

*Commercial parking          181 (0.4%)  38 (0.1%)

 

Demolished structures   2019 - 810 (actual)  2020 - 1000 (planned)

Boarded-up                       2018 - 2,235  2019 - 3,379

 

http://www.city.cleveland.oh.us/sites/default/files/forms_publications/2020MayorsEstimate.pdf

Edited by Dougal
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That income tax revenue number is pretty remarkable, even though it is a conservative projection. Consider....

 

2016: $314.8 million

2019: $424.9 million (estimated)

2020: $444 million (projected)

2024: $481 million (projected)

 

That's a 53 percent increase in 8 years. And it's conservative.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Those projected land use numbers are interesting. I don't believe the zero vacant parcels for a moment, but looking at the projected decrease in commercial parking is both believable really great news if it plays out. I'm sure alot of that is the loss of lots downtown with SW, but we have also been seeing lots disappearing in the neighborhoods too. OC has seen a huge decrease in surface lots recently, particularly along Detroit.

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4 hours ago, Htsguy said:

^Now the hard part...spending it wisely.

 

Yeah I'm still waiting for the increase in services from when Mayor Jackson pushed for the 1/2% tax increase.   So far I've seen a street sweeper 2x in my neighborhood.  

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Industry on the move: Tech experiencing strong job growth in Cleveland

 

February 3, 2020

"Cleveland's tech industry is experiencing strong job growth. Local employers posted 222 new jobs over the past week and 396 new jobs in the last month, more than any other local industry, according to ZipRecruiter, a leading online employment marketplace...."

 

https://hoodline.com/2020/02/industry-on-the-move-tech-experiencing-strong-job-growth-in-cleveland

 

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^ Not good. That said, I had no idea Macy’s had anything in Lorain. I also fully believe they’re the architects of their own downfall. Nearly all of their stores offer nothing unique whatsoever, just bland, cookie-cutter boxes where nothing is worth the non-sale price. Finally, I used to live in South Florida and can’t forgive them for what they did to Burdines. I know they did the same to countless other regional chains. 

Edited by roman totale XVII

And they reckon that the last thing she saw in her life was
Sting, singing on the roof of the Barbican

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^good way to keep costs down:   "New York City will become the company’s sole corporate headquarters, the company said."

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^Macys used an old Macys in Lorain as a computer center. It was mainly back up operations and help desk support.  They are going to the cloud and using India for overnight processing and handling operations out of Atlanta. 

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OK, NOW move to Tower City!  😎

 

 

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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So, last year Cleveland estimated it would receive $424,869,173 in income taxes for 2019. The actual unaudited income tax revenue for 2019 was $441,753,856!

 

SOURCE: https://t.co/LvSUnivV8d

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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More... That's $110 million more than in 2016 and $52 million more than 2017, a full year after the city's raised its income tax rate.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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33 minutes ago, freefourur said:

^but I was told that raising taxes will lower tax receipts. /s

 

OK when is the city going to start maintaining their property, sweeping the streets or maybe PAVING some of the streets that have been a pothole infested mess for decades!   

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1 minute ago, Cleburger said:

 

OK when is the city going to start maintaining their property, sweeping the streets or maybe PAVING some of the streets that have been a pothole infested mess for decades!   

 

Yeah, they should be doing this since they have extra money coming in.

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16 hours ago, Cleburger said:

 

OK when is the city going to start maintaining their property, sweeping the streets or maybe PAVING some of the streets that have been a pothole infested mess for decades!   

Fwiw, have you called the city's division of streets about any specific problem areas? I just bought a house in Ohio City with a foundation that butts an old brick alley. The bricks had sunk into the soil causing a low spot against my foundation. When it rained there'd be a 6 foot wide and 3" deep puddle against my house and it was definitely causing some moisture issues on the basement wall.

 

I called the division of streets about it, the next day they had a tech out to inspect. That night it was elevated to actionable status and within a week new concrete was being poured at the right grade. Now water flows out to the street and I don't have any issues!

 

I'm still seriously impressed with the response time, I was expecting it to take months.

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I had an anti-tax reactionary confront my NEOtrans twitter posting about this news, saying that people are fleeing higher taxes in Cleveland and that jobs/economic activity is rising everywhere in the USA. So I responded with....

 

Income tax revenue can be a measure of economic activity. Roughly half of those increased revenues (from Cleveland's dominant tax revenue source) came after the tax rate increase. They came from more people living/working in Cleveland. In other words the tax hike didn't scare them off; it captured value from Cleveland's newfound economic growth.

 

Economic growth has been limited to America's largest cities despite their higher taxes. This is especially true in Ohio where the 3 largest metros accounted for 88% of Ohio's job growth since Jan. 2015. And if it wasn't for the 6 largest metros, Ohio would have lost 18,000 jobs since Jan. 2015.

 

 

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Pretty interesting and impressive stats to check out.  Cuyahoga’s economy in the top 1% among U.S. counties and stronger than that of several states.  Ohio’s economy as a whole not doing too shabby either.
 

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/02/cuyahoga-countys-gdp-tops-13-states-how-much-ohios-big-counties-power-states-economy-building-from-strength.html

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I got excited when I saw that headline today - "Wow, they're actually reporting on something positive about the city!". Then I opened the article and read thru the first two paragraphs which were nothing but negativity and dragging the city down. Shouldn't have even opened it.

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9 minutes ago, PoshSteve said:

I got excited when I saw that headline today - "Wow, they're actually reporting on something positive about the city!". Then I opened the article and read thru the first two paragraphs which were nothing but negativity and dragging the city down. Shouldn't have even opened it.

 

Cleveland media in general is wild.

 

I remember when we got the RNC... the first local article I read led with "In anticipation of the headaches for locals and transportation issues..."

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Can't be too optimistic in journalism, otherwise you're labeled a cheerleader and not a sober observer. 

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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