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The_Cincinnati_Kid

Cincinnati: Downtown: Skyhouse Cincinnati

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I think JYP[/member] (see his comment near the top of this page) is on to something. Construction costs in Cincinnati are rising, yet rents have topped out. Not a great formula for getting new investors to develop here. I'm sure the upcoming steel tariffs will only hurt the Cincinnati market even more.

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Oh, you can be certain that they would have made money in Cincinnati. Just not enough money.  Why make 10% on your $ in Cincinnati when you can make 20% elsewhere?  These apartment developers build the thing, get it rented, then sell to buy-and-hold people.  The higher the rents, the more they can sell for. 

 

 

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^ Another factor is the homeownership rate. It bottomed out in 2016 and has been on the rise the past two years. In a market like Cincinnati, with plentiful cheap housing, that means stagnant rents as more young people opt for $1000 monthly mortgage payments instead of $1200 rents.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N

 

According to this article on Zillow, the rate increased in Cincinnati by 4% from February 2017 to February 2018, putting it among the fastest growing metros in the country:

 

https://www.zillow.com/research/homeownership-household-formation-18556/

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That's an interesting theory, but if that's the primary factor, shouldn't we be seeing more condo projects downtown? Griewe couldn't make his proposed condo tower work and switched it to microapartments. I think a bigger factor is that more people (whether they choose to rent or buy) are choosing to live in neighborhoods that hit a certain sweet spot—a 10 or 15 minute drive from downtown, significantly cheaper than downtown, yet still walkable/bikeable/on a bus route.

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That's an interesting theory, but if that's the primary factor, shouldn't we be seeing more condo projects downtown? Griewe couldn't make his proposed condo tower work and switched it to microapartments. I think a bigger factor is that more people (whether they choose to rent or buy) are choosing to live in neighborhoods that hit a certain sweet spot—a 10 or 15 minute drive from downtown, significantly cheaper than downtown, yet still walkable/bikeable/on a bus route.

 

I think you're right about close-in neighborhoods. Just look at Westwood. Five years ago homes languished on the market and rarely sold over $100k. Now, those same homes sell day of listing for up to $150k and beyond. Only in the worst areas are properties sitting on the market. 

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^ Another factor is the homeownership rate. It bottomed out in 2016 and has been on the rise the past two years. In a market like Cincinnati, with plentiful cheap housing, that means stagnant rents as more young people opt for $1000 monthly mortgage payments instead of $1200 rents.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N

 

According to this article on Zillow, the rate increased in Cincinnati by 4% from February 2017 to February 2018, putting it among the fastest growing metros in the country:

 

https://www.zillow.com/research/homeownership-household-formation-18556/

 

That is not the influencer on the high end apartments. People are renting here as a lifestyle choice. They don't want a crappy house in Westwood or Madisonville when they can pay $2000/month or more for a place in the Skyhouse.  WHen you have a rise in material prices for a large project of say 10-15% that is a ton of money. Plus, your financing changes on the whole project. Interest on such a construction loan is now say 5.5% or more and then it takes a while to lease and perm financing is a lot higher now than a year ago at this time. A 50-100  basis point change makes a huge difference on a project of this size.

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I think you're right about close-in neighborhoods. Just look at Westwood. Five years ago homes languished on the market and rarely sold over $100k. Now, those same homes sell day of listing for up to $150k and beyond. Only in the worst areas are properties sitting on the market. 

 

It seems like citywide we're seeing a lot of 2-bed 1-bath type homes sit and sit on the market while people leap at the 3-bed 2-baths.  Any house with a weird layout, a circa-1989 DIY renovation, etc. is languishing.

 

In OTR the sub-$250k condos are sitting and sitting.  Same problem -- weird layouts/poles in the middle of the kitchen/upper floor units with no elevator.  But the more expensive and newer units are moving. 

 

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https://cagis.hamilton-co.org/opal/apd.aspx?QSPerm=2019P03915

 

SIAP:

 

Anyone know what this would be in reference to? Don't think I've seen anything in a planning packet about it. Permit application is for a 75,000 sq. ft. commercial building constructed by Milhaus (of the Gantry in Northside and Poste in Walnut Hills) to go on the land where that Atlanta developer was supposed to put a condo tower (name escapes me)? 

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9 minutes ago, Pdrome513 said:

https://cagis.hamilton-co.org/opal/apd.aspx?QSPerm=2019P03915

 

SIAP:

 

Anyone know what this would be in reference to? Don't think I've seen anything in a planning packet about it. Permit application is for a 75,000 sq. ft. commercial building constructed by Milhaus (of the Gantry in Northside and Poste in Walnut Hills) to go on the land where that Atlanta developer was supposed to put a condo tower (name escapes me)? 

New to me, but i bet if it is under 2 stories tall it will fly through with nary a peep from the Mt Adams folk who raised a fuss earlier with the various high rise designs. Isnt what was there as the Montgomery Inn banquet center in the 1990's a 75000sf commercial building?

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30 minutes ago, SleepyLeroy said:

New to me, but i bet if it is under 2 stories tall it will fly through with nary a peep from the Mt Adams folk who raised a fuss earlier with the various high rise designs. Isnt what was there as the Montgomery Inn banquet center in the 1990's a 75000sf commercial building?

You are correct was the Ted Gregory Event Center. They tore it down for a development of two midrise buildings (condos) then the economy crashed and project was cancelled. I dont have any knowledge of this new project, but wouldnt surprise me if they just built a parking garage... something we really need smh. 

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1 hour ago, Pdrome513 said:

Permit application is for a 75,000 sq. ft. commercial building constructed by Milhaus (of the Gantry in Northside and Poste in Walnut Hills) to go on the land where that Atlanta developer was supposed to put a condo tower (name escapes me)? 

 How do you find the permit application that shows the 75,000 sqft commercial building info?

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2 hours ago, Rabbit Hash said:

So Skyhouse is officially on the Cracelled ash heap. 

Yep they didn't pay to play, so move along say Napoleon...

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