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Ohio Census / Population Trends

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8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

To this day, I still have no idea what standards of measurement that Demographia uses.  They're all over the place.  

Funny I was looking for that just a while ago. I think it is adjacent contiguous areas with an urban area that have population densities of at least 1,000 people per square mile. But what is used to determine that? Census tracts? Who knows? I think that they give estimates that seem pretty decent though. Not entirely sure why they would combine Akron/Canton with Cleveland/Lorain and not do the same for the "CinDay" region. Is Cin/Day still not contiguous enough?  If anyone had the data it would be YOU lol.  😉

 

 

Edited by Toddguy

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Just now, Toddguy said:

Funny I was looking for that just a while ago. I think it is adjacent contiguous areas with an urban area that have population densities of at least 1,000 people per square mile. But what is used to determine that? Census tracts? Who knows? I think that they give estimates that seem pretty decent though. Not entirely sure why they would combine Akron/Canton with Cleveland/Lorain and not do the same for the "CinDay" region. Is Cin/Day still not contiguous enough?  If anyone had the data it would be YOU lol.  😉

 

Well, the Census doesn't actually use contiguous development as a factor in determining any of its official population areas, including MSA, contrary to what some people might believe.  It mostly uses commuting patterns.  Only in CSA are Cleveland and Akron listed together for that reason, not in MSA, and why Dayton and Cincinnati are not combined in either one.  That they have some suburban sprawl touching along I-75 doesn't matter and never has.  Demographia may use contiguous, though, but who knows.  

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15 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Well, the Census doesn't actually use contiguous development as a factor in determining any of its official population areas, including MSA, contrary to what some people might believe.  It mostly uses commuting patterns.  Only in CSA are Cleveland and Akron listed together for that reason, not in MSA, and why Dayton and Cincinnati are not combined in either one.  That they have some suburban sprawl touching along I-75 doesn't matter and never has.  Demographia may use contiguous, though, but who knows.  

Quote

An urban area is best thought of as the “urban footprint” --- the lighted area (“city lights”) that can be observed from an airplane (or satellite) on a clear.night. National census authorities in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States designate urban areas. Except in Australia, the authorities generally use a minimum urban density definition of 400 persons per square kilometer (or the nearly identical 1,000 per square mile in the United States) in areas that comprise urban areas. By necessity, average population density data masks significant variations within urban areas. Within urban areas, urban population densities can range from below 400 per square kilometer (1,000 per square mile), particularly in North American urban areas...

 I get this.

Quote

In the United States, single labor markets can be either metropolitan areas, or combined statistical areas (CSAs), which are, in effect, larger metropolitan areas or metropolitan regions, with somewhat less stringent economic interchanges (employment commuting).17 Where continuous urban footprints exist (both in CSAs and metropolitan areas), combines them into a single built-up urban area. For example, the New York built-up urban area stretches from New York to other adjacent built-up urban areas, such as Bridgeport-Stamford, New Haven, Trenton and other metropolitan areas. In addition, the US Census Bureau has retained some urban areas, despite their now continuous urbanization with other urban areas The Census Bureau retains previously separate urbanized areas because these urban areas have historically developed as the functional units of 50 years of urbanized area delineation18). In such cases, the continuous urbanization is combined in Demographia World Urban Areas. Cleveland & Lorain, Ohio and Orlando & Kissimmee, Florida are two examples of this (Table A-1).

I cannot really "get" this last part I will admit.  My mind is too tired today.  It seems to suggest that the US Census Bureau kept Cleveland and Akron separate, and that Demographia has combined them, but the Cleveland CSA does include Akron-so that does not make sense.  It is a mess really.

 

If there is census tract connection between Dayton and Cincinnati that is contiguous and over 1,000 persons per square mile then it should be combined for urban area imo.

 

http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

Edited by Toddguy

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3 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

 

 

So basically their designations are fairly arbitrary because they're not applied universally.  

If one used urbanized area around New York, contiguous development would nearly stretch from DC to Boston along the I-95 corridor.  

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2 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

So basically their designations are fairly arbitrary because they're not applied universally.  

If one used urbanized area around New York, contiguous development would nearly stretch from DC to Boston along the I-95 corridor.  

Is there any separation in that chain where the population density falls below 1,000 per square mile per census tract though?

 

And yeah...it is well...messy I guess.

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^^ Shouldn't that be in the Ohio migration thread?  Anyways since it is here what is the flow between Franklin Ohio and Hamilton? Also why are y'all moving into Madison County! lol. Why are we # 16-there ain't s$#t here-extended uncool crescent!

 

*how many damn more posts until I can escape "Rhodes Tower" hell and move up to "Great American Tower" relative peace?

Edited by Toddguy

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On 11/18/2019 at 3:56 PM, DEPACincy said:

 

Interesting. It looks like the parts of Madison County that are in the watershed are mostly already classified as "outer suburban."

Those are Plain City in the northeast of the county, West Jefferson in the eastern part, and London(south of 70)Lake Choctaw(north of 70)in the western part of the county. 

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19 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

^^ Shouldn't that be in the Ohio migration thread?  Anyways since it is here what is the flow between Franklin Ohio and Hamilton? Also why are y'all moving into Madison County! lol. Why are we # 16-there ain't s$#t here-extended uncool crescent!

 

*how many damn more posts until I can escape "Rhodes Tower" hell and move up to "Great American Tower" relative peace?

 

Maybe. It is Census data though so I thought this was an appropriate place. The other thread doesn't get as much action. 

 

As for Madison County, it's only a net of 146, so it's like 0.01% of the population of Hamco. Margin of error on that is 67, so it could be as low as 79 or as high as 213. But maybe a large employer moved? 

 

Flow between Hamco and Franklin is 2,038 from Ham to Frank, 2070 from Frank to Ham. Net is -32 for Ham, so basically even.

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43 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

Maybe. It is Census data though so I thought this was an appropriate place. The other thread doesn't get as much action. 

 

As for Madison County, it's only a net of 146, so it's like 0.01% of the population of Hamco. Margin of error on that is 67, so it could be as low as 79 or as high as 213. But maybe a large employer moved? 

 

Flow between Hamco and Franklin is 2,038 from Ham to Frank, 2070 from Frank to Ham. Net is -32 for Ham, so basically even.

I don't see why anyone would really want to live out here unless it was up by the Plain City area.

 

*Hamco sounds like some kind of brand of potted meat lol.

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1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

Here are the top out and in for Franklin County:

Frank_Loss.JPG

Frank_Gain.JPG

 

Hmm...I wonder why there is (or was?) the narrative that so many people from the NYC area are moving to central Ohio.


Very Stable Genius

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6 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Hmm...I wonder why there is (or was?) the narrative that so many people from the NYC area are moving to central Ohio.

 

It's not necessarily NYC.  It's New York and New Jersey overall.  Central Ohio in general does well with the Northeast states.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

It's not necessarily NYC.  It's New York and New Jersey overall.  Central Ohio in general does well with the Northeast states.

 

I just recall a lot of "Brooklyn New Yorkers priced out of the big city move to Columbus" type stories.


Very Stable Genius

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8 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

I just recall a lot of "Brooklyn New Yorkers priced out of the big city move to Columbus" type stories.

 

Yeah, so do I, but to be fair, they interviewed like 3 couples.  

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53 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Hmm...I wonder why there is (or was?) the narrative that so many people from the NYC area are moving to central Ohio.

 

Theoretically, Central Ohio could gain 500k people from the NYC area, but lose 500k people to the NYC area which would result in the NYC area not appearing on this list. This list is just looking at the net number. 

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2 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

Here are the top out and in for Franklin County:

Frank_Loss.JPG

Frank_Gain.JPG

 

Most of Franklin County's losses are to other counties within the metro area, while all of its gains are from outside the metro area. That's good for the Columbus metro area, but unfortunately most of the gains are coming from the NEO region. 

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Looking at both Cincy and Columbus, it appears that domestic migration overall is down a bit versus other recent periods.  It could be noise, or it could be part of the national trend where migration overall has fallen to historic lows.  

That said, both are doing much better than they were in the earliest period the Census has for countries- 2006-2010.  

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2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

Looking at both Cincy and Columbus, it appears that domestic migration overall is down a bit versus other recent periods.  It could be noise, or it could be part of the national trend where migration overall has fallen to historic lows.  

That said, both are doing much better than they were in the earliest period the Census has for countries- 2006-2010.  

https://www.aaronrenn.com/2019/11/21/midwest-success-stories-2/

 

Down just a bit? Just some noise?  Not according to Aaron Renn...Cbus and all other non-sunbelt cities(even the ones that are "success stories")have TERRIBLE negative out of stage migration patterns. And this needs to be a focal point in a discussion about Midwest success stories-take 3 of those successes(Minneapolis, Indy, Cbus) and compare them to sunbelt boom cities(Austin, Nashville, Raleigh)in order to keep with his agenda of perils ahead! *eyeroll*. Columbus was singled out of all them, naturally. Why not just title the thing "Midwest Migration Perils!"

 

He is sooo predictable lol.

 

 

 

 

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I wouldn't be surprised if the sunbelt cities are getting the non-Ohio Appalachian migrants that the Midwest used to get. Also wouldn't be surprised if the lack of rail transit is starting to catch up with Columbus. And Indy. The Cincinnati streetcar hasn't been running long enough to really affect these numbers yet. 

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52 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the sunbelt cities are getting the non-Ohio Appalachian migrants that the Midwest used to get. Also wouldn't be surprised if the lack of rail transit is starting to catch up with Columbus. And Indy. The Cincinnati streetcar hasn't been running long enough to really affect these numbers yet. 

I wonder if the numbers of them migrating has fallen as well. I am not so sure that many would be bothered by lack of rail, especially given how many are supposedly going to Nashville, Raleigh, etc. -not exactly hotspots for good mass transit systems. Probably the same thing it has always been-jobs. 

 

I wonder given the area we are talking about, the bulk number of people migrating and why they are migrating, if that many would really give two s$$ts about rail. I wonder how many of them would even care about a forum like this?

 

How many are looking for warehouse/distribution/service jobs vs how many are college graduates looking for urban amenities?..etc?

Edited by Toddguy
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Franklin County is home to THE biggest university in Ohio. In autumn of 2019, 3,924 OSU enrollees originate from Cuyahoga County. So the notion that people from Cuyahoga are migrating in mass amounts to Franklin is a complete fallacy.

 584069593_ScreenShot2019-11-26at9_57_15PM.png.84569d211d4e15ece44409af8fac8aa0.png

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1 hour ago, Toddguy said:

I wonder if the numbers of them migrating has fallen as well. I am not so sure that many would be bothered by lack of rail, especially given how many are supposedly going to Nashville, Raleigh, etc. -not exactly hotspots for good mass transit systems. Probably the same thing it has always been-jobs. 

 

I wonder given the area we are talking about, the bulk number of people migrating and why they are migrating, if that many would really give two s$$ts about rail. I wonder how many of them would even care about a forum like this?

 

How many are looking for warehouse/distribution/service jobs vs how many are college graduates looking for urban amenities?..etc?

 

Speculating again, but I think the out-migration is fueled by lack of rail, but the decreased in-migration from non-Ohio Appalachia probably isn't as much. When I lived in WV, all the talk was of D.C., regular Virginia, North Carolina, basically the whole Mid-Atlantic with some South thrown in. It wasn't much Columbus as it would have been in 1980 and definitely not Cincinnati or Indy. After a while Appalachians started getting sick of the crap Ohioans were throwing at them when they came while the Mid-Atlantic states don't do that to them (Mid-Atlantic states look at WV like Vermont instead of Alabama). NC doesn't do that either... but the Deep South still can give them a hard time.

Edited by GCrites80s

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Could a 10 mile subway underneath High Street in Columbus (say, from Frank Rd. to Morse Rd.) change the reputation and trajectory of the entire state of Ohio? It could start a positive feedback loop that might 

Edited by thebillshark

www.cincinnatiideas.com

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It could, but there is no political will for a project that ambitious. However light rail with a combination of street running and dedicated ROW (underutilized existing rail corridors, not busy ones that the freight companies are extremely protective of)  is doable and affordable. Yet as it stands there isn't enough political will for that even.

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10 minutes ago, thebillshark said:

Could a 10 mile subway underneath High Street in Columbus (say, from Frank Rd. to Morse Rd.) change the reputation and trajectory of the entire state of Ohio? It could start a positive feedback loop that might 

 

A high-quality 3C's rail service + 10 miles of real subway in each of the 3C's would be huge.  The state can easily afford this.  Maryland is building the purple line in suburban DC, for example.   

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29 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

It could, but there is no political will for a project that ambitious. However light rail with a combination of street running and dedicated ROW (underutilized existing rail corridors, not busy ones that the freight companies are extremely protective of)  is doable and affordable. Yet as it stands there isn't enough political will for that even.


I think light rail for Columbus is just light rail for Columbus, though. Underutilized existing rail corridors don’t go near the most bustling pedestrian areas and crossroads, and street running rail gets delayed in traffic. A subway (perhaps automated for super low headways) avoids those problems and sets a gold standard. The resulting big city growth that would ensue would change the Ohio brand (remember Columbus, Ohio is one of the largest cities to be usually be referred to by both city and state) could help other cities like Dayton, Toledo, and even Cincinnati and Cleveland shed their Rust Belt image. 

 

28 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

A high-quality 3C's rail service + 10 miles of real subway in each of the 3C's would be huge.  The state can easily afford this.  Maryland is building the purple line in suburban DC, for example.   


I think Columbus should do it first because they are already winning the growth game and have the flat land grid structure and attitude to support more. 


www.cincinnatiideas.com

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17 minutes ago, thebillshark said:


I think light rail for Columbus is just light rail for Columbus, though. Underutilized existing rail corridors don’t go near the most bustling pedestrian areas and crossroads, and street running rail gets delayed in traffic. 

 

 

 

Oh but they do. Previously on UO (can't remember where) were maps showing these existing corridors and they are in fantastic locations. Almost everywhere important in core Columbus has rail right there already or would be on the street portion. It's a lot different that Cincinnati in that the rails aren't mostly sequestered in places like the West End, East End, the Mill Creek or trapped in the other few flat ares. Without Cranley around signal prioritization for the street portions won't be a mess. Columbus' apathy is also its power in this case. No Bob in Mason or other fire-breathing suburbanites.

 

I mean you have rail running right now from the Convention Center just south of the Short North past Nationwide Arena, Huntington Park, the new Crew stadium, then to Grandview Yard then to just south of the Grandview strip. Unbelievable potential. It is wide gauge though. I don't think I ever had to stop an the tracks in the 5 years I lived in Grandview.

Edited by GCrites80s

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22 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It makes sense to combine Cleveland and Akron. The east side suburbs run into each other. The one question I have is that Akron is already combined with Canton, so do they combine Cle-Akr-Can or is it still Akron-Canton and separately Cleveland-Akron, which can get confusing.

 

As someone originally from Canton, I take issue with this and proudly declare Akron/Canton remain a thing and not Cleveland/Akron, thank you.

 

I'm just kidding. I'm actually from Massillon. If you did Cleveland/Akron, Canton/Massillon I guess that would be alright. Canton and Massillon blob together at this point with tons of unnecessary sprawl.

Edited by Zyrokai

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It's the same problem you run into with Cin-Day. Sure the amorphous blob of sprawl around Monroe could realistically be "shared" by both metros, the Miami Valley stretches up to at least Sidney, and the northern Valley towns feel very different culturally from the "linear city" south of I-675. 


“To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”

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13 hours ago, Toddguy said:

https://www.aaronrenn.com/2019/11/21/midwest-success-stories-2/

 

Down just a bit? Just some noise?  Not according to Aaron Renn...Cbus and all other non-sunbelt cities(even the ones that are "success stories")have TERRIBLE negative out of stage migration patterns. And this needs to be a focal point in a discussion about Midwest success stories-take 3 of those successes(Minneapolis, Indy, Cbus) and compare them to sunbelt boom cities(Austin, Nashville, Raleigh)in order to keep with his agenda of perils ahead! *eyeroll*. Columbus was singled out of all them, naturally. Why not just title the thing "Midwest Migration Perils!"

 

He is sooo predictable lol.

 

 

 

 

Isn't the Columbus metro adding near 30k people per year?  Are these people really all coming from within Ohio?  It doesn't seem possible.

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11 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Speculating again, but I think the out-migration is fueled by lack of rail, but the decreased in-migration from non-Ohio Appalachia probably isn't as much. When I lived in WV, all the talk was of D.C., regular Virginia, North Carolina, basically the whole Mid-Atlantic with some South thrown in. It wasn't much Columbus as it would have been in 1980 and definitely not Cincinnati or Indy. After a while Appalachians started getting sick of the crap Ohioans were throwing at them when they came while the Mid-Atlantic states don't do that to them (Mid-Atlantic states look at WV like Vermont instead of Alabama). NC doesn't do that either... but the Deep South still can give them a hard time.

Well it is unfortunate that they feel like they are not welcome here but are welcome in the Mid-Atlantic states. I understand it though, as I have all of the West Virginia jokes for decades.  I have seen the disdain for unskilled or semi-skilled working class people migrating to Cbus in posts on this board. 

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12 hours ago, Metz44 said:

Franklin County is home to THE biggest university in Ohio. In autumn of 2019, 3,924 OSU enrollees originate from Cuyahoga County. So the notion that people from Cuyahoga are migrating in mass amounts to Franklin is a complete fallacy.

 584069593_ScreenShot2019-11-26at9_57_15PM.png.84569d211d4e15ece44409af8fac8aa0.png

 

The reality, however, is that Columbus does a decent job of retaining those people after graduation.  Also, migration figures don't make any assumptions on the length of stay, only that the people entered a location in a given year.  Living in a place for at least 4 years, even if just for school, would count as being a resident.  

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14 hours ago, Toddguy said:

https://www.aaronrenn.com/2019/11/21/midwest-success-stories-2/

 

Down just a bit? Just some noise?  Not according to Aaron Renn...Cbus and all other non-sunbelt cities(even the ones that are "success stories")have TERRIBLE negative out of stage migration patterns. And this needs to be a focal point in a discussion about Midwest success stories-take 3 of those successes(Minneapolis, Indy, Cbus) and compare them to sunbelt boom cities(Austin, Nashville, Raleigh)in order to keep with his agenda of perils ahead! *eyeroll*. Columbus was singled out of all them, naturally. Why not just title the thing "Midwest Migration Perils!"

 

He is sooo predictable lol.

 

 

 

 

 

I've already taken him to task for *only* using IRS figures, which have serious flaws.  Columbus has been attracting more immigrants in recent years than at any point in the last 50, but if you read his stories, you would believe that migration is collapsing.  He also doesn't seem to believe that international migration has any value, only domestic, as he never mentions it.  Furthermore, even if Columbus had no migration whatsoever, the population would still be growing decently just due to natural growth rates.  Honestly, I think he singles out Columbus because some people- myself included- have criticized him on his stories regarding it.  He seems to have a chip on his shoulder now.

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11 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

It could, but there is no political will for a project that ambitious. However light rail with a combination of street running and dedicated ROW (underutilized existing rail corridors, not busy ones that the freight companies are extremely protective of)  is doable and affordable. Yet as it stands there isn't enough political will for that even.

 

I was reading an article yesterday about the NW Corridor and how it was going to be studied- again- to find out what type of transit would be best (as if we don't already know they'll go with a bus).  The study will take 18 months before more studies start.  It gave me an idea to search through the records to see just how many times mass transit has been studied around the city with nothing tangible coming from it.  I've started looking just since 1980.  The last time I looked into this, though not as thoroughly, I found at least a dozen times in the 1990s alone.  The only thing about transit that Columbus has ever been serious about is wasting money studying it.

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^^ I completely agree, I just wanted to see your response to that 💩.  I agree it is almost like he does this because he has been called out on it before. It is predicatable at this point.

 

Edited by Toddguy

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1 hour ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Isn't the Columbus metro adding near 30k people per year?  Are these people really all coming from within Ohio?  It doesn't seem possible.

 

The last time I ran the numbers a few years ago, 50% was natural growth (births vs deaths), 25% was domestic and 25% was international migration.  Of the 25% that was domestic, about 70% was from Ohio, 30% out-of-state.  The out-of-state proportion had been growing and the Ohio proportion shrinking.  International migration was also gradually overtaking domestic.

 

Edit: Just ran the numbers for 2018.  

Columbus Metro Area Breakdown

Natural Growth (+10,776) was 44.8% of the total.

Domestic Migration (+6,597) was 27.4% of the total.

International Migration (+6,764) was 28.1% of the total.   The totals are rounded.

 

 

 

 

Edited by jonoh81

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35 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

I was reading an article yesterday about the NW Corridor and how it was going to be studied- again- to find out what type of transit would be best (as if we don't already know they'll go with a bus).  The study will take 18 months before more studies start.  It gave me an idea to search through the records to see just how many times mass transit has been studied around the city with nothing tangible coming from it.  I've started looking just since 1980.  The last time I looked into this, though not as thoroughly, I found at least a dozen times in the 1990s alone.  The only thing about transit that Columbus has ever been serious about is wasting money studying it.

Isn't this a little different this time?  They already did the study and now they are choosing one of the 5 corridors studied to actually move forward with first.  They hired an engineering firm to have something built out within 5 years.  Considering OSU is heavily involved/interested, and this goes right through the new West Campus Innovation District, I actually have hope for once.

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12 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Isn't this a little different this time?  They already did the study and now they are choosing one of the 5 corridors studied to actually move forward with first.  They hired an engineering firm to have something built out within 5 years.  Considering OSU is heavily involved/interested, and this goes right through the new West Campus Innovation District, I actually have hope for once.

 

It was "different" every time they studied this.  And the article I read said nothing about having something built within 5 years.  They want to study the corridor (something I thought was already done when they chose these corridors to begin with), get public input, etc. because they haven't even figured out what is going to be built yet.  So this study will not even be completed for 18 months.  After that, once a type of transit is chosen, there will be further studies on everything from costs to ridership, which will likely be at least another year or 2 after that.  Construction won't take 1 year.  Considering how long it took to get the Cleveland Avenue CMax built, which was basically just fancier bus stations and not any route construction, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see any construction on this one corridor for another 8-9-10 years, which wouldn't be good news for the other routes.  And that assumes that there will be funding, which is no guarantee.  Or that there isn't some conservative anti-transit group putting this on a ballot measure, especially if the chosen transit type is rail.  

Edited by jonoh81

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10 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

It was "different" every time they studied this.  And the article I read said nothing about having something built within 5 years.  They want to study the corridor, get public input, etc. because they haven't even figured out what is going to be built yet.  So this study will not even be completed for 18 months.  After that, once a type of transit is chosen, their will be further studies on everything from costs to ridership, which will likely be at least another year or 2 after that.  Construction won't take 1 year.  Considering how long it took to get the Cleveland Avenue CMax built, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see any construction on this one corridor for another 8-9 years.  

I don't really know, I'm just saying what I saw in this article: https://www.columbusunderground.com/new-plan-northwest-corridor-bw1

 

Quote

The new plan promises to do what the previous plans haven’t – make a specific recommendation for what exactly a “high-capacity transit” option should look like along the corridor, and lay out a step-by-step strategy for actually building it within the next five years.

 

OSU is really pushing hard to get a major company to anchor their Innovation District.  We know Apple almost came here and ended up going to Austin.  I bet transit along this corridor is something they're pushing hard for to get this done and set them apart.  Has OSU historically cared much about transit in Columbus?  That seems like it could be a major difference this time around if it hasn't been in the fight for transit previously.

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