Ohio Census / Population Trends & Lists

[Brutus_buckeye]

3 minutes ago, dastler said:

Anecdotally that has been my experience as well. I haven't kept up with my suburban cleveland high school friends much, but I think more ended up in Columbus than Cleveland.

I am sure there are more numbers out there to prove it, but I spent time living in Cleveland and Columbus. It just seemed like a lot more students at Ohio State were coming from NE Ohio than from Cincinnati. In addition, when I was working in Cleveland, it was often common that the older generation such as early Gen X and late Boomer (and it is likely industry specific) went away to college at OSU, BG, Miami, OU and came back to Cleveland.  Cleveland had a lot of smaller schools, which may have contributed to that perception, but you do not see as many Case or BW or John Carroll alumni all over Cleveland businesses (i am sure they are there but it is just smaller). Wheareas, in Cincinnati, everyone goes to UC, Miami, NKU or Dayton, they have outsized influences on the employment in that region. 

[Toddguy]

15 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

People don't have to leave Cincinnati because it is a major city that is very well-networked.

Are we referencing political, economic, and social incest here regarding the "city that shall not be named"? 

[unusualfire]

It will be interesting how this virus change the landscape of metros. If we go into a depression people will seak out cheaper places to live.

[jonoh81]

9 minutes ago, unusualfire said:

It will be interesting how this virus change the landscape of metros. If we go into a depression people will seak out cheaper places to live.

 

Actually, in economic downturns, far fewer people move.  If anything, both domestic and international migration will be way down this year and possibly next.  Areas that don't have strong natural growth in terms of births will likely see much lower growth the next few years... or stronger losses.

Edited March 31, 2020 by jonoh81

[westakron1]

On 3/30/2020 at 5:18 PM, Clefan98 said:

I'm currently on the phone with coworker who graduated from Hudson in 2001. He thinks the Twinsburg/Hudson area relates more to Cleveland because the HS league they were in consisted of Solon, Brush, Mayfield, etc.

 

He wants it known on record that Stow is the beginning of Akron.

The Conference he is refering to is the old Western Reserve Conference. Hudson was in the conference but was in Southern Division of the league which consisted of Akron area suburbs( Stow, Kent, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Barberton and Hudson).  The Northern Division consisted of the other schools you mentioned. 

 

Twinsburg is a suburb of Cleveland while Hudson is a mixture between Akron and Cleveland. Both schools have been a part of The Suburban League which has been Akron Centric for years but now has serveral Cleveland area schools in the aforementioned areas(Twinsburg, Nordonia(Northfield/Macedonia) Brecksville-Broadview Heights, North Royalton, Aurora). 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by westakron1

[Clefan98]

18 minutes ago, westakron1 said:

Twinsburg is a suburb of Cleveland while Hudson is a mixture between Akron and Cleveland. Both schools have been a part of The Suburban League which has been Akron Centric for years but now has serveral Cleveland area schools in the aforementioned areas(Twinsburg, Nordonia(Northfield/Macedonia) Brecksville-Broadview Heights, North Royalton, Aurora). 

 

 

 

As noted, the comment was made from someone who attended Hudson in 2001. Twinsburg and Hudson did not join the suburban league until 2015-2016, which is relatively recent.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Clefan98

[westakron1]

4 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

 

As noted, the comment was made from someone who attended Hudson in 2001. Twinsburg and Hudson did not join the suburban league until 2015-2016, which is relatively recent.

Yes but Hudson was in a division with nothing but Akron suburbs in 2001, so it would take some gymnastics for them to group themselves with Twinsburg and the other schools who were not in their division.  They were not in simply a Cleveland area conference but a Cleveland-Akron area conference in which they were in the Akron area division. 

[jonoh81]

On 3/30/2020 at 8:50 PM, Brutus_buckeye said:

I forget where I saw a chart, but it helped explain the growth in Ohio. While there may have been an in-migration into Columbus, it was not like that in-migration in significant numbers was coming from other parts of the country. Columbus's in-migration was coming from other parts of Ohio, namely Northern Ohio (Youngstown, Akron, Canton, Toledo and some Cleveland along with some of the rural areas) It was also interesting to see that Columbus did not attract a lot of migration from the Cincinnati area as those residents tended to stay there more than other areas of Ohio. So while, cincinnati, may not have grown the same % as Columbus over the last decade, it is not as if Columbus is killing it on attracting a ton of talent from outside the area either unless you consider a consolidation of the smaller towns into columbus 

 

Columbus has positive migration from outside Ohio as well, in increasing numbers from more states, which is a long-term trend.  Most metros get the majority of their domestic migration from their home state, btw, even in the Sun Belt.  And it doesn't have anything to do with international migration, which has been a significant part of annual growth- and which helps cities with negative domestic migration from seeing greater losses.  

In fact, not to make this too political, but cities/metros that rely heavily on international migration to pad their numbers might do worse this year- or the next 4- given the anti-immigration stances of the current administration. International migration has collapsed quite a bit the last few years, and will deepen this year because of that and the obvious virus issues that limit all movement.

Edited April 7, 2020 by jonoh81

[Zyrokai]

Filled out my census yesterday! How's it looking out there, folks? I decided to tune out the Census stuff last year when I was convinced it would be botched from top to bottom.

 

Was my prediction correct? I've seen a million commercials for it at this point, which surprised me. I wasn't in tune with this stuff in 2010 and I don't know if that's normal or not, tbh. I just hope we get an accurate Count.

[Ucgrad2015]

On 3/30/2020 at 10:50 PM, Brutus_buckeye said:

I forget where I saw a chart, but it helped explain the growth in Ohio. While there may have been an in-migration into Columbus, it was not like that in-migration in significant numbers was coming from other parts of the country. Columbus's in-migration was coming from other parts of Ohio, namely Northern Ohio (Youngstown, Akron, Canton, Toledo and some Cleveland along with some of the rural areas) It was also interesting to see that Columbus did not attract a lot of migration from the Cincinnati area as those residents tended to stay there more than other areas of Ohio. So while, cincinnati, may not have grown the same % as Columbus over the last decade, it is not as if Columbus is killing it on attracting a ton of talent from outside the area either unless you consider a consolidation of the smaller towns into columbus 

I would also say Columbus gets more people than Cincinnati or Cleveland from Southeastern Ohio. I grew up in Marietta but now live in Cincinnati. A lot of the people that I know that left the area have mostly moved to Columbus. 

[Brutus_buckeye]

7 hours ago, Ucgrad2015 said:

I would also say Columbus gets more people than Cincinnati or Cleveland from Southeastern Ohio. I grew up in Marietta but now live in Cincinnati. A lot of the people that I know that left the area have mostly moved to Columbus. 

Ohio State and UC are the 2 biggest college draws in the state given their programs. Case being Cleveland's research school, while extremely well regarded, does not cater well to instate residents.  this is part of it.  

 

I agree that most will migrate toward Columbus from other areas of Ohio with the exception of Cincinnati which does not have the Columbus pull. SE Ohio is a bit of a push with the majority going to Columbus but Cincy has a strong following there too. Cincinnati does seem to attract a disproportionate share of people from Kentucky and you see that by the KY suburbs growing how they are. Cincinnati does not get much from Indiana. The IU crowd prefers to go to Indy over Cincy. 

[TH3BUDDHA]

On 3/27/2020 at 2:36 PM, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/03/27/census-columbus-metro-gained-50-new-people-a-day.html

 

 

 

This seems low.  Hasn't the Columbus metro growth been closer to 30,000/yr recently?  Also, with projections saying that we'll be at 3 million by 2050, it seems we'll need to be adding more than 18,000 a year.

[DarkandStormy]

11 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

This seems low.  Hasn't the Columbus metro growth been closer to 30,000/yr recently?  Also, with projections saying that we'll be at 3 million by 2050, it seems we'll need to be adding more than 18,000 a year.

 

Figures may vary depending on which source(s) you use/trust:

2019 - 2,122,271 (+18,077 / +0.86%)

2018 - 2,104,194 (+21,613 / +1.04%)

2017 - 2,082,581 (+30,389 / +1.48%)

2016 - 2,052,192 (+24,624 / +1.21%)

2015 - 2,027,568 (+26,203 / +1.31%)

2014 - 2,001,365 (+27,304 / +1.38%)

2013 - 1,974,061 (+26,853 / +1.38%)

2012 - 1,947,208 (+20,870 / +1.08%)

2011 - 1,926,338 (+19,972 / +1.05%)

2010 - 1,906,366

 

Only one year of 30k growth, but easily the lowest growth year of the decade - both in terms of total population added and on a % basis.

[TH3BUDDHA]

11 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Figures may vary depending on which source(s) you use/trust:

2019 - 2,122,271 (+18,077 / +0.86%)

2018 - 2,104,194 (+21,613 / +1.04%)

2017 - 2,082,581 (+30,389 / +1.48%)

2016 - 2,052,192 (+24,624 / +1.21%)

2015 - 2,027,568 (+26,203 / +1.31%)

2014 - 2,001,365 (+27,304 / +1.38%)

2013 - 1,974,061 (+26,853 / +1.38%)

2012 - 1,947,208 (+20,870 / +1.08%)

2011 - 1,926,338 (+19,972 / +1.05%)

2010 - 1,906,366

 

Only one year of 30k growth, but easily the lowest growth year of the decade - both in terms of total population added and on a % basis.

Interesting, thanks.  Any of you guys have any thoughts on the reason for the low year?

[GCrites]

Housing supply/cost? That's true of most cities though. Stryker empty?

[DEPACincy]

43 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Interesting, thanks.  Any of you guys have any thoughts on the reason for the low year?

 

Growth is slowing down nationally. Fewer births. More deaths. Lower immigration. All adds up to slower growth.

[DarkandStormy]

7 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

Growth is slowing down nationally. Fewer births. More deaths. Lower immigration. All adds up to slower growth.

 

National growth has been slowing since 2008.

Edited April 16, 2020 by DarkandStormy

[DEPACincy]

1 hour ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

This seems low.  Hasn't the Columbus metro growth been closer to 30,000/yr recently?  Also, with projections saying that we'll be at 3 million by 2050, it seems we'll need to be adding more than 18,000 a year.

 

MORPC's projections have always been unrealistic and everyone around the state knows it. The state department of development projects that central Ohio will add about half the population that MORPC claims (which would still make it the fastest growing region by far).

 

Ohio has an aging population and we can expect population growth to slow dramatically after 2030 and even go negative by 2040 (barring an unexpected and large influx of immigration). There is no way Columbus gets to 3 million by 2050. It'll be closer to 2.5 million.

[DEPACincy]

5 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

National growth has been slowing since 2008.

 

For the most part, yes. Average annual growth this decade was about 0.7% compared to about 1% last decade. But notably, 2019 growth was below the decade average (0.5%). And natural increase dropped below a million in 2019, which is the first time that has happened in four decades. Also international migration for 2019 is almost half of what it was in 2016. So the trend is becoming more intense. 10 states lost population this year.

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html

[Pugu]

The US in 2020 will show probably even slower growth than 2019 as COVID-19--already 31,000 deaths in the US, plus probably lower immigration to the US because of Trump in general and because of the economic slowdown in the US per because of Trump's COVID-19 mistakes.

 

[Toddguy]

3 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

 

MORPC's projections have always been unrealistic and everyone around the state knows it. The state department of development projects that central Ohio will add about half the population that MORPC claims (which would still make it the fastest growing region by far).

 

Ohio has an aging population and we can expect population growth to slow dramatically after 2030 and even go negative by 2040 (barring an unexpected and large influx of immigration). There is no way Columbus gets to 3 million by 2050. It'll be closer to 2.5 million.

The 3 million was never for our metro area but for greater Central Ohio-more like our CSA than our metro. And the CSA is already a bit over 2.5 million. Apparently there is some confusion even among the Central Ohioan's about this.

 

I don't think adding 450,000 in 30 years is completely unrealistic. The CSA has added about 200,000 people in the last 8 years according to estimates.

 

Also natural increase is much higher in Central Ohio than in other parts of the state because of a younger population-younger than the national average. Even if that decreases and in-state migration decreases we should still be fairly close to 2.8-3 million(unless something drastic happens as we have seen in the last couple months.)

Quote

Central Ohio is on track to become a region of 3 million people by 2050, according to the latest population estimates from the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC). The estimates are developed annually by MORPC to provide up-to-date insights into the patterns of growth in the 15-county region.

https://www.morpc.org/news/central-ohio-population-to-reach-3-million-by-2050/

 

 

 

*Also everyone forgets there is a thread for Cbus and Central Ohio population talk:

https://forum.urbanohio.com/topic/15661-columbus-population-trends/page/7/#comments

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Toddguy

[TH3BUDDHA]

1 hour ago, Toddguy said:

*Also everyone forgets there is a thread for Cbus and Central Ohio population talk:

The original article that I was replying to mentioned data about Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, and Akron as well.

[Toddguy]

10 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

The original article that I was replying to mentioned data about Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, and Akron as well.

It did-but you didn't.  ;)  Not that it is a big deal though. It is an interesting discussion-why the drop, right?

[TH3BUDDHA]

12 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Apparently there is some confusion even among the Central Ohioan's about this.

 

I think the confusion is there because at the time that MORPC released this prediction, a lot of news sources that had an article about it said that central Ohio would grow by 1 million people by 2050 to reach 3 million.  Given that, you would assume they mean the metro.  Just seems that they all interpreted MORPC incorrectly.

[DEPACincy]

2 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

I think the confusion is there because at the time that MORPC released this prediction, a lot of news sources that had an article about it said that central Ohio would grow by 1 million people by 2050 to reach 3 million.  Given that, you would assume they mean the metro.  Just seems that they all interpreted MORPC incorrectly.

 

Very weird that they're using the 15 county region since MORPC is the MPO for two counties (and a small portion of two others). They're calling Chillocothe, Zanesville, Bellefontaine, and Washington Courthouse a part of "Columbus." I'm not sure the projections are very useful for planning purposes if it includes people living in those places. 

 

Also, I compared their projection to the state's Development Services Agency's projections for the 15 county area. The 15 county area had a population of 2.24 million in 2010. The state projects it'll grow to 2.77 million by 2050. So MORPC's numbers are still much higher than the state's official projections. The state projects that Fayette, Guernsey, Logan, Marion, Morrow, Muskingum, and Ross Counties will lose population between now and 2050, partially offsetting gains in other counties.

[jonoh81]

21 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

This seems low.  Hasn't the Columbus metro growth been closer to 30,000/yr recently?  Also, with projections saying that we'll be at 3 million by 2050, it seems we'll need to be adding more than 18,000 a year.

 

The last estimate year before the decennial census always seems to be on the lower end.  I don't think it's anymore complicated than that.   

Edited April 17, 2020 by jonoh81

[jonoh81]

19 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

 

MORPC's projections have always been unrealistic and everyone around the state knows it. The state department of development projects that central Ohio will add about half the population that MORPC claims (which would still make it the fastest growing region by far).

 

Ohio has an aging population and we can expect population growth to slow dramatically after 2030 and even go negative by 2040 (barring an unexpected and large influx of immigration). There is no way Columbus gets to 3 million by 2050. It'll be closer to 2.5 million.

 

Columbus has added about 509,000 to its metro since 2000. There is really no great way to project out 30 years with accuracy, but assuming similar growth over the next 30 years, the metro would be between 2.8-2.9 million by 2050.  The numbers from MORPC are used to do regional planning.  Better to overestimate than under in that case.

[jonoh81]

16 hours ago, Toddguy said:

The 3 million was never for our metro area but for greater Central Ohio-more like our CSA than our metro. And the CSA is already a bit over 2.5 million. Apparently there is some confusion even among the Central Ohioan's about this.

 

I don't think adding 450,000 in 30 years is completely unrealistic. The CSA has added about 200,000 people in the last 8 years according to estimates.

 

Also natural increase is much higher in Central Ohio than in other parts of the state because of a younger population-younger than the national average. Even if that decreases and in-state migration decreases we should still be fairly close to 2.8-3 million(unless something drastic happens as we have seen in the last couple months.)

https://www.morpc.org/news/central-ohio-population-to-reach-3-million-by-2050/

 

*Also everyone forgets there is a thread for Cbus and Central Ohio population talk:

https://forum.urbanohio.com/topic/15661-columbus-population-trends/page/7/#comments

 

 

The regular metro would be at roughly 2.72 million in 2050 if similar growth rates were achieved similar to the past 20 years.  Obviously, we can't assume that will happen, but the projections are not based on nothing. 

 

To your point about natural growth, Columbus' average annual natural growth has been increasing every decade since the 1980s.  This decade has been no different.  

[DarkandStormy]

8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Columbus has added about 509,000 to its metro since 2000. There is really no great way to project out 30 years with accuracy, but assuming similar growth over the next 30 years, the metro would be between 2.8-2.9 million by 2050.  The numbers from MORPC are used to do regional planning.  Better to overestimate than under in that case.

 

The math is pretty simple.  The metro area added ~11.7% (depending on where we end up with the census) to its population since 2010.  If you just extrapolate out 11.7% growth every decade, you get to ~2.97m residents by 2050.  The metro area has only ever added residents decade over decade (going back to 1900, at least).  The only sub-10% growth decades were the 1970s (8.5%) and the 1930s (7.1%).  Average decade growth since 1980 is nearly 14%.  Maybe there was more math put into the model, but you can also just take average growth on a % basis and get to 3m by 2050.  The math/projection isn't all that wild.

Edited April 17, 2020 by DarkandStormy

[DEPACincy]

6 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

The math is pretty simple.  The metro area added ~11.7% (depending on where we end up with the census) to its population since 2010.  If you just extrapolate out 11.7% growth every decade, you get to ~2.97m residents by 2050.  The metro area has only ever added residents decade over decade (going back to 1900, at least).  The only sub-10% growth decades were the 1970s (8.5%) and the 1930s (7.1%).  Average decade growth since 1980 is nearly 14%.  Maybe there was more math put into the model, but you can also just take average growth on a % basis and get to 3m by 2050.  The math/projection isn't all that wild.

 

But that's not how population projections are done. You have to take into account age cohorts and projected births-deaths. The older generations in the region are much larger than the younger generations. There is ZERO reason for a qualified demographer to assume that growth from 2030 to 2050 will be as high as growth this decade. It's wishful thinking and does not represent best practices in the field. It also goes directly against the official projections from the state, which are much more methodologically sound. 

[jonoh81]

1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

 

Very weird that they're using the 15 county region since MORPC is the MPO for two counties (and a small portion of two others). They're calling Chillocothe, Zanesville, Bellefontaine, and Washington Courthouse a part of "Columbus." I'm not sure the projections are very useful for planning purposes if it includes people living in those places. 

 

Also, I compared their projection to the state's Development Services Agency's projections for the 15 county area. The 15 county area had a population of 2.24 million in 2010. The state projects it'll grow to 2.77 million by 2050. So MORPC's numbers are still much higher than the state's official projections. The state projects that Fayette, Guernsey, Logan, Marion, Morrow, Muskingum, and Ross Counties will lose population between now and 2050, partially offsetting gains in other counties.

 

They're not calling those places part of Columbus, they're calling them part of Central Ohio for regional planning purposes.  That description is obviously debatable, but MORPC is not actually saying they are part of the metro or even CSA.  

 

Morrow County is part of the metro.  

 

Franklin County alone adds more people per year than the entire CSA combined.  So does Columbus all by itself.  Whether most of those counties end up losing population seems irrelevant, as it will not affect official metro or CSA numbers. 

 

Population projections are notoriously bad, either too low or too high.  The Census projected Ohio to stagnate and even decline by now.  It hasn't, and actually has a higher estimated population now than the census projected it would have in 2030.  The point is, no one should be taking long-term projections as gospel.  They're going to be wrong one way or another.

[DEPACincy]

 

16 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Columbus has added about 509,000 to its metro since 2000. There is really no great way to project out 30 years with accuracy, but assuming similar growth over the next 30 years, the metro would be between 2.8-2.9 million by 2050.  The numbers from MORPC are used to do regional planning.  Better to overestimate than under in that case.

 

You're right. There are no correct models, only useful ones. But the MORPC model is not useful. If you go to the annual meeting of the Population Association of America and presented these projections and their methodology you'd be laughed out of the room. Assuming similar growth over the next 30 years is the worst possible way to come up with a number you could imagine.

 

And no it isn't better to overestimate. If you overestimate the population growth, especially in the outlying areas of the region, you end up building a ton of useless, expensive to maintain, infrastructure. If someone comes along and proposes a second beltway around Columbus going through the outlying counties it can now be justified because MORPC has endorsed the idea that these counties are going to see massive growth.

[DEPACincy]

2 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

They're not calling those places part of Columbus, they're calling them part of Central Ohio for regional planning purposes.  That description is obviously debatable, but MORPC is not actually saying they are part of the metro or even CSA.  

 

Whatever distinction you want to draw, it seems misleading at best. And again, I'm not sure how the population of Washington Court House affects transportation planning in Franklin and Delaware Counties. And if all the growth is happening in Franklin County then why include those additional counties in the analysis? My concern is that their numbers end up leading to bad planning decisions. 

 

4 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Population projections are notoriously bad, either too low or too high.  The Census projected Ohio to stagnate and even decline by now.  It hasn't, and actually has a higher estimated population now than the census projected it would have in 2030.

 

What Census projections are you referring to? 

[jonoh81]

41 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

 

You're right. There are no correct models, only useful ones. But the MORPC model is not useful. If you go to the annual meeting of the Population Association of America and presented these projections and their methodology you'd be laughed out of the room. Assuming similar growth over the next 30 years is the worst possible way to come up with a number you could imagine.

 

And no it isn't better to overestimate. If you overestimate the population growth, especially in the outlying areas of the region, you end up building a ton of useless, expensive to maintain, infrastructure. If someone comes along and proposes a second beltway around Columbus going through the outlying counties it can now be justified because MORPC has endorsed the idea that these counties are going to see massive growth.

 

https://www.morpc.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/FINALDRAFT_2018PopEstMethod.pdf

 

Here is what they use as methodology.  They do not just assume similar growth projected out.  I am the one who used that hypothetical.  They use housing units, birth-death records, etc.  For the record, here are the MORPC 2019 population estimates for the 15 counties (which came out in 2018) versus the 2019 Census estimates which came out last month.

 

MORPC vs. Census

Franklin: 1,318,164- 1,316,756

Delaware: 208,067- 209,177

Licking: 175,755- 176,862

Fairfield: 157,799- 157,574

Ross: 78,528- 76,666

Marion: 64,245- 65,093

Knox: 61,669- 62,322

Union: 58,285- 58,988

Pickaway: 58,339- 58,457

Logan: 45,751- 45,672

Madison: 44,609- 44,731

Perry: 36,172- 36,134

Morrow: 34,969- 35,328

Fayette: 28,582- 28,525

Hocking: 28,586- 28,264

Total: 2,399,520- 2,400,549

MORPC estimates were 1,029 too low overall, for an average difference of -68.6.

 

I'd call that very close, which is more evidence that their numbers are pretty solid, at least in near-future predictions.  

 

 

 

[DEPACincy]

43 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

https://www.morpc.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/FINALDRAFT_2018PopEstMethod.pdf

 

Here is what they use as methodology.  They do not just assume similar growth projected out.  I am the one who used that hypothetical.  They use housing units, birth-death records, etc.  For the record, here are the MORPC 2019 population estimates for the 15 counties (which came out in 2018) versus the 2019 Census estimates which came out last month.

 

MORPC vs. Census

Franklin: 1,318,164- 1,316,756

Delaware: 208,067- 209,177

Licking: 175,755- 176,862

Fairfield: 157,799- 157,574

Ross: 78,528- 76,666

Marion: 64,245- 65,093

Knox: 61,669- 62,322

Union: 58,285- 58,988

Pickaway: 58,339- 58,457

Logan: 45,751- 45,672

Madison: 44,609- 44,731

Perry: 36,172- 36,134

Morrow: 34,969- 35,328

Fayette: 28,582- 28,525

Hocking: 28,586- 28,264

Total: 2,399,520- 2,400,549

MORPC estimates were 1,029 too low overall, for an average difference of -68.6.

 

I'd call that very close, which is more evidence that their numbers are pretty solid, at least in near-future predictions.  

 

 

 

 

That's their methodology for population estimates, not projections. Two different things. Their estimates methodology is sound. As far as I can tell, they have not published their methodology for how they came up with the 1 million number for 2050. The state, on the other hand, publishes their full methodology. 

 

Also, MORPC's insight2050 report includes the following text:
 

Quote

Each of the insight2050 scenarios accommodates the same number of people, homes, and jobs. insight2050 uses regional projections from MORPC for population and employment through 2050, based on official projections from the state. According to these projections, the 7-county region will grow by about 1 million people and 300,000 jobs between 2010 and 2050; about 300,000 new housing units will be needed to accommodate population growth. This rate of growth is roughly on pace with national growth rates, and far exceeds that of other cities in Ohio.

 

So here they are saying the 1 million number is for the 7-county metro region, not the 15-county group they cite elsewhere. Which is it? And directly below that language they show a chart, which seems to go with the text. But the chart has the actual state projections, which only show a half a million people added between 2010 and 2050, not 1 million. It's all very confusing. 

https://getinsight2050.org/the-report/scenario-drivers/growth/

 

And THEN, their long range plan suggests that they will add 540k in Franklin and Delaware Counties by 2050. This actually has their methodology spelled out in it and seems more reasonable than whatever method they used to arrive at the 1 million number.

https://www.morpc.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2_RegionalTrends.pdf

[GCrites]

So Hocking County has been added to the metro, which shares far more of its economy with Athens and Lancaster than Columbus. To me, Marion, Logan and Knox Counties are questionable too.

[jonoh81]

5 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

 

That's their methodology for population estimates, not projections. Two different things. Their estimates methodology is sound. As far as I can tell, they have not published their methodology for how they came up with the 1 million number for 2050. The state, on the other hand, publishes their full methodology. 

 

Also, MORPC's insight2050 report includes the following text:
 

 

So here they are saying the 1 million number is for the 7-county metro region, not the 15-county group they cite elsewhere. Which is it? And directly below that language they show a chart, which seems to go with the text. But the chart has the actual state projections, which only show a half a million people added between 2010 and 2050, not 1 million. It's all very confusing. 

https://getinsight2050.org/the-report/scenario-drivers/growth/

 

And THEN, their long range plan suggests that they will add 540k in Franklin and Delaware Counties by 2050. This actually has their methodology spelled out in it and seems more reasonable than whatever method they used to arrive at the 1 million number.

https://www.morpc.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2_RegionalTrends.pdf

 

They've been forced to update their projections a few times over the past several years, so that could explain various discrepancies.  Honestly, I just stick with the Census numbers. and don't really get into the projection side of things.  

[jonoh81]

1 hour ago, GCrites80s said:

So Hocking County has been added to the metro, which shares far more of its economy with Athens and Lancaster than Columbus. To me, Marion, Logan and Knox Counties are questionable too.

 

I assume Hocking is in the Columbus metro because there is at least a 25% commuting exchange between it and the rest of the metro.  Lancaster is also in a metro county.  

[GCrites]

^That seems like a good way to constantly add counties to any metro until you run into another metro. Maybe that's the goal?

[Guest jmecklenborg]

I'd like to see a detailed analysis of the 2000-2015 Rt. 33 upgrades.  The Athens-Pomeroy "Super 2" was the first, then the Lancaster Bypass, then the Nelsonville Bypass.  These upgrades shortened the drive from Athens to Columbus by at least 20 minutes at least 40 minutes from Pomeroy to Columbus.  These road improvements enabled couples living in Athens to have one side of the couple commute to Columbus.  People were doing it before but this work made it a lot more feasible since the old roads had flooding issues. 

 

What's pretty crazy is comparing the drives to Miami versus OU from either Cincinnati or Columbus.  The drive to Miami remains a primitive sortie.  But for whatever reason the state has conspicuously favored road improvements to Athens, both from Cincinnati and Columbus.  It's almost a fully grade-separated interstate-grade drive to Athens from both major cities.  Meanwhile basically nothing has been done for Oxford. 

[ink]

^The upgrades to US 33, SR 32, etc. are about reaching all of Appalachia, not just Athens. 

[GCrites]

Open For Business 

[jonoh81]

22 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

^That seems like a good way to constantly add counties to any metro until you run into another metro. Maybe that's the goal?

 

Actually, it seems to be a very bad way to do it considering the boundaries have changed relatively little over the last 50 years or so.  Metros also lose counties, so it doesn't just go one way.  I also misspoke when I said it was a  25% exchange with the metro in general.  I believe it's a 25% exchange with the core metro county.  

[mrnyc]

On 4/16/2020 at 2:28 PM, TH3BUDDHA said:

Interesting, thanks.  Any of you guys have any thoughts on the reason for the low year?

 

 

because the youth and the most mobile people in and around cleveland the past 3 decades have already moved to columbus.

 

same for the rest of the state, except cinci, they stay put. 

 

ha.

 

so just a guess, but maybe the intrastate columbus pipeline is relatively drying up a bit due to people moving out of state and lower birthrates? or just staying put lately??

 

i dk -- its a good question.

 

but i do know cle and the rest ohio cities would love to have that falling columbus move in rate!

Edited April 19, 2020 by mrnyc

[GCrites]

1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Actually, it seems to be a very bad way to do it considering the boundaries have changed relatively little over the last 50 years or so.  Metros also lose counties, so it doesn't just go one way.  I also misspoke when I said it was a  25% exchange with the metro in general.  I believe it's a 25% exchange with the core metro county.  

 

I thought that Morrow was new to the MSA in 2010 or so and that Hocking was very new, like less than two years. Perry was also a relative newcomer at less than 20 years. Knox, Logan, Marion and Ross are CSA but are also Micropolitan areas of their own. If it's by CSA then Muskingum and Gurnsey should be added as well.

[jonoh81]

37 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

I thought that Morrow was new to the MSA in 2010 or so and that Hocking was very new, like less than two years. Perry was also a relative newcomer at less than 20 years. Knox, Logan, Marion and Ross are CSA but are also Micropolitan areas of their own. If it's by CSA then Muskingum and Gurnsey should be added as well.

 

Morrow has been around a while.  Perry and Hocking were the new metro counties in 2010.  

 

CSAs, IMO, are functionally worthless and they only seem to be useful in gauging the size of a local media market.  Just as metro counties share a 25% threshold commuting pattern with the core county, CSAs are formed by using that measurement to add MSA/MISAs together into a CSA.  CSA counties don't have to share much, if any, direct commuting with the core county, and that makes them, at least for me, a lot less relevant in determining the pull of the core county.  I once lived in Logan County.  Columbus might as well have been 1000 miles away.  People didn't commute to work there, but many did commute to Honda in Marysville, which IS in the Columbus metro.  Bottom line- MSA counties are strongly attached to the core.  CSA counties are strongly attached to the metro, but not the core.

Edited April 19, 2020 by jonoh81

[GCrites]

The media biz uses DMAs so I guess CSAs aren't much use then, really.

[Toddguy]

On 4/16/2020 at 2:13 PM, DarkandStormy said:

 

Figures may vary depending on which source(s) you use/trust:

2019 - 2,122,271 (+18,077 / +0.86%)

2018 - 2,104,194 (+21,613 / +1.04%)

2017 - 2,082,581 (+30,389 / +1.48%)

2016 - 2,052,192 (+24,624 / +1.21%)

2015 - 2,027,568 (+26,203 / +1.31%)

2014 - 2,001,365 (+27,304 / +1.38%)

2013 - 1,974,061 (+26,853 / +1.38%)

2012 - 1,947,208 (+20,870 / +1.08%)

2011 - 1,926,338 (+19,972 / +1.05%)

2010 - 1,906,366

 

Only one year of 30k growth, but easily the lowest growth year of the decade - both in terms of total population added and on a % basis.

Regarding the falling rate, I don't know if estimates for just two years makes a real trend or anything-especially since the only one outside the group(below 1 percent) is just one estimate for last year. The census numbers(God help us given how they might be because of COVID-19) will let us know where we are.

 

I mean I wonder what dramatic development happened between 2017 and 2019 to cause the rate to fall by nearly half?

 

We know how crazy off the official census numbers every ten years have been lately(as in 2010) so it all has to be taken with a grain of salt until those are released.

 

*I can imagine a number of places complaining and using COVID-19 as a reason for low estimates they get.

 

 

*I also for some reason think Cbus has been overestimated.

[Guest jmecklenborg]

9 hours ago, ink said:

^The upgrades to US 33, SR 32, etc. are about reaching all of Appalachia, not just Athens. 

 

Yeah actually 32 was funded in large part by the special federal Appalachian road fund...but nothing appreciable has happened in SE Ohio as compared to the Indiana border counties like Butler.  You can say all you want about Appalachia being cut off from the rest of the country, but the fact is there has been big-time road (and airport and other modes) infrastructure improvements in the 13~ Appalachian states yet the area keeps wallowing in irrelevance.  Completion of I-73 and I-74 through West Virginia won't accomplish jack squat, if the last 50 years are any indication. 

[Magyar]

5 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

 

I thought that Morrow was new to the MSA in 2010 or so and that Hocking was very new, like less than two years. Perry was also a relative newcomer at less than 20 years. Knox, Logan, Marion and Ross are CSA but are also Micropolitan areas of their own. If it's by CSA then Muskingum and Gurnsey should be added as well.

Morrow was added in 2000.