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Ohio Census / Population Trends

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One thing to keep in mind re the foreign born students at OSU is that a decent number of them end up sticking around after graduation. So, while OSU certainly inflates that number, they aren't all necessarily lost after graduating. 

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Just now, cbussoccer said:

 

Why should it be concerning? 

 

Because if you have bad domestic migration or bad natural growth rates, immigration can be a stop-gap for overall decline  If immigration is also negative, it becomes even harder to see growth.

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6 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Any other data that would be interesting to see?

 

For selfish reasons, but I would like to see you add for the Population By Race- City Only charts Dayton, Akron, and Youngtown to round out Ohio's metros over 500,000.


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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2 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Because if you have bad domestic migration or bad natural growth rates, immigration can be a stop-gap for overall decline  If immigration is also negative, it becomes even harder to see growth.

 

That's assuming a drastic reduction in international migration does not come along with any changes in domestic migration or natural growth. So, for example, if OSU reduced their international student population to zero, it would open up a lot of room for American students to fill in which would bring in more Americans from outside Columbus or Ohio. If there was no international migration into Columbus taking up housing units, it would open units to people outside of Columbus and Ohio to come in. 

 

I understand your point statistically, but I'm not certain it would happen in reality.

 

I would be interested to see how a city like Austin compares to Columbus in terms of international migration. I know their international growth is big, but I'm not sure how lines up with Columbus.

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17 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

 

That's assuming a drastic reduction in international migration does not come along with any changes in domestic migration or natural growth. So, for example, if OSU reduced their international student population to zero, it would open up a lot of room for American students to fill in which would bring in more Americans from outside Columbus or Ohio. If there was no international migration into Columbus taking up housing units, it would open units to people outside of Columbus and Ohio to come in. 

 

I understand your point statistically, but I'm not certain it would happen in reality.

 

I would be interested to see how a city like Austin compares to Columbus in terms of international migration. I know their international growth is big, but I'm not sure how lines up with Columbus.

 

In terms of growth, that's just not usually how it works.  When domestic migration or natural growth are bad, international migration tends to be the only source of growth for many cities.  If there is no international, there usually isn't domestic, either.  International migration tends to be a lot more tolerant to cities that are in or have declined.  That goes for individual neighborhoods too.  Linden, the Morse corridor, etc. would be much worse off without international residents repopulating them and opening up new businesses.

 

I don't think OSU is preventing US students from applying or being accepted based on the relatively small number of international students. 

Many students live in dorms, and are required to live on Campus through their Sophomore year now, so those students aren't taking up any off-campus housing whatsoever. The rest wouldn't even be enough to cover a partial year's population growth.  Columbus is severely underbuilt, but a few thousand student rooms wouldn't solve anything. 

 

Not certain what would happen in reality? 

 

The city of Austin gained 32,113 foreign-born residents between 2010-2018, growing from 148,431 to 180,544.

 

 

 

Edited by jonoh81
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25 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

 

For selfish reasons, but I would like to see you add for the Population By Race- City Only charts Dayton, Akron, and Youngtown to round out Ohio's metros over 500,000.

 

For some reason, the race data that I posted isn't available for them.  There is overall white, black, etc. but not separated out from Hispanic.  Hispanic can be of any race, so it's not quite the same.

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About 10 years ago, I noticed that in many smaller Ohio towns there were more old people and poor people than young, middle-class families. But I'm surprised to see Lake County in this category....

 

The full map...

Ohio-Counties-Age-Wave-01-1160x1508.png


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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That's a sign of the economy in those areas. No real indication of it turning around either.

 

Edited by Mendo

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And it's probably happening in the smaller (<65,000 population) counties as well but there's no data for the smaller counties. 

 

Meanwhile, the state's population has increased by about 160,000 since 2010. Rural/small-town Ohio is dying. Urban Ohio is growing, but probably not growing as much as it should be in a state led by rural politicians in state government.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Lake County surprised me at first too, but then I thought about it for a bit. Mentor has largely been built out now, and last I heard the schools have been seeing massive declines in enrollment as the kids age out and the parents stay in the same house. Not many new young families able to move in. The western suburbs have been built out for awhile now, with many residents aging in place. To me, other than maybe Willoughby, they seem more stagnant than most Cuyahoga County suburbs now. Eastern Lake County saw its boom before the recession, and it hasn't started back up again. I grew up in Madison, and just about everyone I knew from school has moved away (many to Cuyahoga County). Just like Mentor, without new homes being built, there are no new kids coming in to replace those who are leaving. Painsville has always been different, but with the present immigration climate, I'm sure the number of kids is shrinking there too.

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I was a little surprised by Lake County too, but at least as of two years ago when this Cleveland.com article was posted, Painesville was 11th youngest city in the state (next to Cincinnati; with the first four being dominated by large state universities). Also it's showing more growth than other Lake County towns (see other thread link). I guess the largely Mexican immigration has slowed somewhat, and that it's maturing (lots of good taco places now more than ever--lol). That said, Lake is the 15th oldest in Ohio, and the chart shows Geauga as #8, yet it's not highlighted on the map. Possibly you can have more people 65+ and still have groups that offset that to skew younger overall??

 

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2017/12/ranking_every_ohio_city_county_6.html

 

 

Edited by eastvillagedon
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Going into the foreign-born population a bit further, here were the origins of immigrants by city, this time for 2000 and 2018.

 

Foreign-born Population from Europe and % of Total Foreign-born Population

2000

Cleveland: 8,796  41.2%

Columbus: 7,017  14.7%

Cincinnati: 3,851  30.9%

Akron: 2,687  38.9%

Toledo: 2,020  21.3%

Dayton: 901  27.8%

Youngstown: 870  54.2%

Canton: 590  43.6%

2018

Columbus: 8141 6.5%

Cleveland: 4844  22.2%

Cincinnati: 2738  13.3%

Akron: 1580  11.6%

Toledo: 496  5.5%

Canton: 347  10.7%

Dayton: 347  4.7%

Youngstown: 337  34.5%

Change 2000-2018

Columbus: +1124

Canton: -243

Dayton: -554

Akron: -1107

Cincinnati: -1113

Toledo: -1524

Cleveland: -3952

 

Foreign-born Population from Asia and % of Total Foreign-born Population

2000

Columbus: 22354  46.9%

Cleveland: 6213  29.1%

Cincinnati: 4326  34.7%

Toledo: 3847  40.6%

Akron: 3099  44.8%

Dayton: 903  27.8%

Youngstown: 338  21.1%

Canton: 296  21.9%

2018

Columbus: 49185  39.2%

Cleveland: 10351  47.4%

Akron: 8391  61.5%

Cincinnati: 5599  27.2%

Toledo: 3597  39.8%

Dayton: 2575  35.2%

Canton: 542  16.7%

Youngstown: 196  20.1%

Change 2000-2018

Columbus: +26831

Akron: +5292

Cleveland: +4138

Dayton: +1672

Cincinnati: +1273

Canton: +246

Youngstown: -142

Toledo: -250

 

Foreign-born Population from Africa and % of Total Foreign-born Population

2000

Columbus: 9530  20.0%

Cincinnati: 1781  14.3%

Cleveland: 1075  5.0%

Toledo: 638  6.7%

Dayton: 522  16.1%

Akron: 197 2.9%

Canton: 89 6.6%

Youngstown: 50  3.1%

2018

Columbus: 45092  36.0%

Cincinnati: 7113  34.5%

Dayton: 1573  21.5%

Akron: 1312  9.6%

Cleveland: 622  2.8%

Toledo: 416  4.6%

Youngstown: 277  28.4%

Canton: 95  2.9%

Change 2000-2018

Columbus: +35562

Cincinnati: +5332

Akron: +1116

Dayton: +1051

Youngstown: +227

Canton: +6

Toledo: -222

Cleveland: -453

 

Foreign-born Population from Oceania and % of Total Foreign-born Population

2000

Columbus: 216  0.5%

Cleveland: 96  0.4%

Cincinnati: 71  0.6%

Akron: 37  0.5%

Toledo: 28  0.3%

Youngstown: 14  0.9%

Canton: 0  0.0%

Dayton: 0  0.0%

2018

Columbus: 452  0.4%

Cincinnati: 241  1.2%

Cleveland: 211 1.0%

Toledo: 41  0.5%

Akron: 0  0.0%

Canton: 0  0.0%

Dayton: 0  0.0%

Youngstown: 0  0.0%

Change 2000-2018

Columbus: +236

Cincinnati: +170

Cleveland: +115

Toledo: +13

Canton: +0

Youngstown: -14

Akron: -37

 

Foreign-born Population from Latin America and % of Total Foreign-born Population

2000

Columbus: 7373  15.5%

Cleveland: 4796  22.4%

Toledo: 2257  23.8%

Cincinnati: 2031  16.3%

Dayton: 817  25.2%

Akron: 576  8.3%

Canton: 347  25.7%

Youngstown: 293  18.3%

2018

Columbus: 21331  17.0%

Cleveland: 5520  25.3%

Cincinnati: 4434  21.5%

Toledo: 3988  44.1%

Dayton: 2816  38.5%

Akron: 2219  16.3%

Canton: 2184  67.4%

Youngstown: 166  17.0%

Change 2000-2018

Columbus: +13958

Cincinnati: +2403

Dayton: +1999

Canton: +1837

Toledo: +1731

Akron: +1643

Cleveland: +724

Youngstown: -127

 

Foreign-born Population from North America and % of Total Foreign-born Population

2000

Columbus: 1223  2.6%

Toledo: 685  7.2%

Cincinnati: 401  3.2%

Cleveland: 396  1.9%

Akron: 315 4.6%

Dayton: 102  3.1%

Youngstown: 40  2.5%

Canton: 30  2.2%

2018

Columbus: 1138  0.9%

Cincinnati: 467  2.3%

Toledo: 359  4.0%

Cleveland: 290  1.3%

Akron: 147  1.1%

Canton: 73  2.3%

Dayton: 0  0.0%

Youngstown: 0  0.0%

Change 2000-2018

Cincinnati: +66

Canton: +43

Youngstown: -40

Columbus: -85

Dayton: -102

Cleveland: -106

Akron: -168

Toledo: -326

 

 

 

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Canton, to me, is the (good) surprise of that list.  


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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On 9/26/2019 at 4:24 PM, Pugu said:

^At last--a positive population change for Cleveland!  Thanks jonoh81 for compiling.  Could you do the same cities above, but using their counties instead of municipal boundaries? Also, 125k Columbus is big. How many of those are students at OSU?

 

Wait, how is this a positive population change for Cleveland? I did a spreadsheet  to make things a little easier to parse leaving out Toledo out for time's sake (sorry Toledo). Unless my excel skills are rusty (entirely possible), these numbers give a total 2018 population for Cleveland at 383.7k. And from what I could find over lunch, the 2017 population was estimated at 385.5k

https://www.biggestuscities.com/city/cleveland-ohio

 

And here's my spreadsheet:

image.png.41af876d5353823c1db4f575b661d0f5.png

 

Not trying to be combative about it or anything, I hope my math is wrong or something, but I'm just curious where the positive population change comes from? Am I missing something here?

 

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^ well i wonder if columbus cracks a mil and if the bleeding stops and cleveland flattens out like cincinnati. all of that happening would be ideal for now. then growth for all three next decade.

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Cranley thinks 310k for Cincinnati, I would guess 305k.

 

I don't know much about Cleveland but looking at track 380k

 

Columbus I would guess 925k

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On 10/2/2019 at 12:52 PM, jonoh81 said:

Foreign-born Population from North America and % of Total Foreign-born Population

 

Given that "Mexico" I assume is part of the category "Latin America", does "North America" here refer to exclusively Canadians?

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On 10/2/2019 at 1:49 PM, gpodawund said:

 

Wait, how is this a positive population change for Cleveland? I did a spreadsheet  to make things a little easier to parse leaving out Toledo out for time's sake (sorry Toledo). Unless my excel skills are rusty (entirely possible), these numbers give a total 2018 population for Cleveland at 383.7k. And from what I could find over lunch, the 2017 population was estimated at 385.5k

https://www.biggestuscities.com/city/cleveland-ohio

 

And here's my spreadsheet:

image.png.41af876d5353823c1db4f575b661d0f5.png

 

Not trying to be combative about it or anything, I hope my math is wrong or something, but I'm just curious where the positive population change comes from? Am I missing something here?

 

 

gpodawund:  I was referring to the post immediately above where I made the comment. it was on 9/26.  I was referring to this point:

 

Total Foreign-Born Population and % of Total Population

Change 2010-2018

Columbus: +38,676

Akron: +5,125

Cleveland: +4,099

Cincinnati: +4,061

Dayton: +2,209

Toledo: -2,521

Youngstown: -2,719

 

The number for CLE is positive. Usually we see negative numbers when looking at CLE population changes. That's the point i was noting.

 

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2 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

Given that "Mexico" I assume is part of the category "Latin America", does "North America" here refer to exclusively Canadians?

 

No.  It would also include the Caribbean islands that aren't Spanish-speaking.  So like the Bahamas, Virgin Islands, etc.  

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4 hours ago, Ucgrad2015 said:

What’s everyone’s guesses for the population Columbus,Cleveland and Cincinnati for the 2020 census?

 

For Columbus, here was the estimated total year-over-year growth 2010-2018 (keep in mind, these are updated with each new year's estimate)

Census 2010-July 1, 2011: +13,489

7/1/11-7/1/12: +12,189

7/1/12-7/1/13: +15,113

7/1/13-7/1/14: +13,916

7/1/14-7/1/15: +13,272

7/1/15-7/1/16: +11,906

7/1/16-7/1/17: +14,845

7/1/17-7/1/18: +10,770

Typically, each year's new estimates have raised previous years by a few thousand, so it's reasonable to expect that the 2018 number will also be too low.  The average growth per year has been +13,188.  Assuming that 2018's population will be adjusted upward, that will probably take us to around 895,000 for the 2018 revised estimate.  And assuming a fairly consistent increase that follows the same patterns of previous years, we can expect a 2019 estimate of around 908,000 with a further adjustment of around 911,000.  Ultimately, I would expect a 2020 figure to show higher growth than the estimates, as was the case during the 2000s with the 2010 Census.  My guess is that Columbus will hit between 925K-930K in 2020.  Realistically, the city has likely already surpassed Cleveland's historic peak to become the largest city in Ohio history.  

Edited by jonoh81
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2 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

gpodawund:  I was referring to the post immediately above where I made the comment. it was on 9/26.  I was referring to this point:

 

Total Foreign-Born Population and % of Total Population

Change 2010-2018

Columbus: +38,676

Akron: +5,125

Cleveland: +4,099

Cincinnati: +4,061

Dayton: +2,209

Toledo: -2,521

Youngstown: -2,719

 

The number for CLE is positive. Usually we see negative numbers when looking at CLE population changes. That's the point i was noting.

 

 

To be fair, i don't think that is actually a change.  Foreign-born growth has been generally positive for many years, even in Cleveland.  It just hasn't been nearly enough to cover the much larger domestic out-migration.  

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Speaking of Columbus, the exploding population from Africa has well surpassed Minneapolis to become the largest in the Midwest, even vs. Chicago.  The story in the Dispatch about the relative ease to get a green card there might explain some of it.

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4 hours ago, mrnyc said:

^ well i wonder if columbus cracks a mil and if the bleeding stops and cleveland flattens out like cincinnati. all of that happening would be ideal for now. then growth for all three next decade.

 

I think 1 mill is too high, given the city has shown pretty consistent, steady growth for awhile now.  It would take some off-the-charts growth to get to 7 digits by 2020, imo.


Very Stable Genius

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^ yeah i see at a glance i mistakenly took 2018 for 2010 -- but ok in the 900ks for sure -- and the mil will come in just a few years after the census.

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1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

Speaking of Columbus, the exploding population from Africa has well surpassed Minneapolis to become the largest in the Midwest, even vs. Chicago.  The story in the Dispatch about the relative ease to get a green card there might explain some of it.

 

 

can you post something about that news? it is really something impressive especially as i thought mpls initially started out with many more refugees.

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1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

Speaking of Columbus, the exploding population from Africa has well surpassed Minneapolis to become the largest in the Midwest, even vs. Chicago.  The story in the Dispatch about the relative ease to get a green card there might explain some of it.

 

Do you have the stats vs. Minneapolis/Chicago?  I'm curious how large an uptick it has been.


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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4 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

 

Do you have the stats vs. Minneapolis/Chicago?  I'm curious how large an uptick it has been.

 

Here are some Midwest comparisons for Foreign-born from Africa, City Only

2000--------------------------------------2018

1. Minneapolis: 12,765--------1. Columbus: 45,092

2. Chicago: 12,613---------------2. Minneapolis: 26,271

3. Columbus: 9,530--------------3. Chicago: 25,573

4. St. Paul: 4,697------------------4. Indianapolis: 14,965

5. Detroit: 3,249-------------------5. St. Paul: 13,594

6. Indianapolis: 2,650-----------6. Kansas City: 8,558

7. Kansas City: 2,192-----------7. Cincinnati: 7,113

8. Cincinnati: 1,781--------------8. Des Moines: 6,191

9. St. Louis: 1,500----------------9. Omaha: 5,474

10. Omaha: 1,497----------------10. Grand Rapids: 3,932

11. Milwaukee: 1,332-----------11. St. Louis: 3,777

12. Cleveland: 1,075-------------12. Milwaukee: 3,552

13. Des Moines: 1,038----------13. Lincoln: 2,942

14. Madison: 991-----------------14. Wichita: 2,752

15. Wichita: 946-------------------15. Madison: 2,599

16. Grand Rapids: 718----------16. Detroit: 2,081

17. Lincoln: 637---------------------17. Fort Wayne: 1,614

18. Dayton: 522--------------------18. Dayton: 1,573

19. Fort Wayne: 384--------------19. Akron: 1,312

20. Akron: 197-----------------------20. Cleveland: 622

 

Change 2000-2018

Columbus: +35562

Minneapolis: +13506

Chicago: +12960

Indianapolis: +12315

St. Paul: +8897

Kansas City: +6366

Cincinnati: +5332

Des Moines: +5153

Omaha: +3977

Grand Rapids: +3214

Lincoln: +2305

St. Louis: +2277

Milwaukee: +2220

Wichita: +1806

Madison: +1608

Fort Wayne: +1230

Akron: +1115

Dayton: +1051

Cleveland: -453

Detroit: -1168

 

Columbus added almost as many as the next 3 cities combined during the period.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by jonoh81
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5 hours ago, mrnyc said:

here is something related from june --- it still says 45k somali and second largest though:

 

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190617/muslim-population-growth-shows-in-columbus-crowded-mosques

 

 I am talking about all African foreign-born, not just from Somalia, and only for the city.  Minneapolis is still higher at the  metro level.  At the metro level, Columbus was 3rd in the Midwest for African foreign-born, but only about 300 behind Chicago and growing significantly faster than either other metro.

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17 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

 I am talking about all African foreign-born, not just from Somalia, and only for the city.  Minneapolis is still higher at the  metro level.  At the metro level, Columbus was 3rd in the Midwest for African foreign-born, but only about 300 behind Chicago and growing significantly faster than either other metro.

It is kind of shocking to me that metro Columbus is only about 300 behind Chicago metro in African foreign-born. That is just amazing to me. Good for Cbus.  I hope that easier-to-get-a-green-card thing is helping and if so continues to do so.  Might want to send these stats about migration(although it is mostly international probably)to a certain blogger and Manhattan Institute member..  😉 

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1 hour ago, Toddguy said:

It is kind of shocking to me that metro Columbus is only about 300 behind Chicago metro in African foreign-born. That is just amazing to me. Good for Cbus.  I hope that easier-to-get-a-green-card thing is helping and if so continues to do so.  Might want to send these stats about migration(although it is mostly international probably)to a certain blogger and Manhattan Institute member..  😉 

 

I wouldn't want to be just another "booster bro".  

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The NY Times recently looked at what percentage of the population in each county in the US is urban, inner suburban, outer suburban, and rural. Basically, if you're in the top 20% of density you're urban. Bottom 20% is rural. And the in-between is split between inner and outer suburban. Here are the top five for each category in Ohio.

 

Urban

 

Cuyahoga - 34%

Franklin - 29%

Athens - 22%

Lucas - 20%

Hamilton - 17%

 

Inner-Suburban

 

Lucas - 65%

Hamilton - 62%

Franklin - 57%

Montgomery - 56%

Mahoning - 55%

 

Outer-Suburban

 

Miami - 84%

Geauga - 81%

Clermont - 76%

Warren - 70%

Greene - 69%

 

Rural

 

Adams, Monroe, Morgan, Morrow, and Vinton all 100%. Holmes is next at 90%. 

 

And just for fun, I combined the urban and inner-ring numbers to get a total for medium to high density:

 

Urban + Inner Ring

 

Franklin - 85%

Lucas - 84%

Cuyahoga - 84%

Hamilton - 79%

Montgomery - 67%

 

One thing that I think is interesting is that the population of Athens County is highly urban, coming in 3rd in the state. The students living in dorms and dense housing near campus obviously dominate that. Athens really is an urban planners dream for a city its size. Highly walkable, dense, and vibrant. Athens County also ranks fairly high on the Rural metric, so basically there are very few people in Athens County living at medium densities. 

 

Another thing that's interesting is how urban Lucas County is. On the Urban ranking it is higher than Hamilton, and on the combined Urban + Inner Ring ranking it comes in higher than both Cuyahoga and Hamilton.

 

 

 

 

 

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It would be interesting to see some stats like population within an MSA within a half-mile from a walkable (zero-setback, etc.) business district.

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Toledo's the odd child of the second-tier cities since it never really sprawled to anywhere near the same extent as Dayton or Akron. A good 30% of the metro, and over half of Lucas County, lives in Toledo itself. 


“To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”

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Seem to be just further evidence that Columbus is not just sprawl.  However, I would like to see the methodology on what they are considering urban vs suburban.

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26 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Seem to be just further evidence that Columbus is not just sprawl.  However, I would like to see the methodology on what they are considering urban vs suburban.

 

They took every Census tract in the entire country and divided them into deciles based on density. The lowest two deciles were categorized as rural. The top two were categorized as urban. And the middle ones were divided between inner and outer suburban. So basically if you are classified as "urban" you are in the top 20% of density at the tract level.

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3 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

They took every Census tract in the entire country and divided them into deciles based on density. The lowest two deciles were categorized as rural. The top two were categorized as urban. And the middle ones were divided between inner and outer suburban. So basically if you are classified as "urban" you are in the top 20% of density at the tract level.

 

So if I'm correct in my understanding, doesn't that mean that the definition of urban would change based on the city?  New York's density would be much higher than Des Moines', so the deciles would be on a much different scale.  100K PPSM in New York may be top 20%, while 10K PPSM would be in Des Moines.  If so, is 10K urbanity the same as 100K urbanity?

Edited by jonoh81

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It doesn't make much sense to make a land use classification based upon population density. You could have a 99% agricultural tract with a prison designated as urban and an office park designated as rural.

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16 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

So if I'm correct in my understanding, doesn't that mean that the definition of urban would change based on the city?  New York's density would be much higher than Des Moines', so the deciles would be on a much different scale.  100K PPSM in New York may be top 20%, while 10K PPSM would be in Des Moines.  If so, is 10K urbanity the same as 100K urbanity?

 

No, it's national deciles. So its standardized across the entire country.

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11 minutes ago, Robuu said:

It doesn't make much sense to make a land use classification based upon population density. You could have a 99% agricultural tract with a prison designated as urban and an office park designated as rural.

 

They also divided pavement density into deciles and used the highest of the two measures for their classification, so the office park situation is rectified. They do, however, acknowledge, that there are some discrepancies caused by prisons but most are in rural areas with very large Census tracts that dilate the population density of the prison. I'll throw together some quick maps of their data for Cincy, Cbus, and Cleveland so you guys can judge their accuracy based on your lived experience.

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Also, looks like I slightly misinterpreted their scale. They divided the tracts into classifications between 1 and 10 and then made 9 and 10 urban, 1 and 2 rural, etc. But they rounded to the nearest whole number, so a tract in the 76th percentile would be classified as an 8. So that means their urban classification is roughly the top quarter of tracts and their rural is roughly the bottom quarter. Outer ring is then about the 25th percentile to the 54th percentile and inner ring is the 55th percentile to the 74th percentile. 

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