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Coronavirus Pandemic

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On 3/25/2020 at 9:28 AM, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?fbclid=IwAR1Dpg6hCMdV9mdyAVWAeZpse78DGdkAuwF-fu_BEKsKsPIJyFXRz2efaHU

 

Using GPS data on people's phones (I believe via apps), you can start to see which states - even down to the county-level - are really cutting back on their distance traveled.  Ohio gets an A with an average distance reduction of 40%.

 

 

i believe ohio, or at least ne ohio, goes to the top of that list in the other direction too during thanksgiving. at least I have read something like that before. so ohioans are definitely good at controlling their distance driving. now about that passing lane ohio drivers ... lol!

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12 minutes ago, audidave said:

Seems important. 
 

@DarrenEuronews: NEW: Germany’s Bosch says it has developed a test for Covid-19 that can deliver a diagnosis in under 2.5 hours, and does not need to be taken to a lab

Developed in just 6 weeks, can also check for nine other respiratory diseases, including the flu, using a single sample

 

Pretty major customer of ours (other divisions, AFAIK)

 

Call me unshocked.

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4 hours ago, KJP said:

Because it's much more contagious than the flu. Most rhinoviruses and existing coronaviruses can last on surfaces without a host for only a few hours or a few days. COVID-19 can last up to 14 days.

 

Italy and Spain have older populations, have high-degrees of smoking among male adults, and are heavily anti-vaccine. It's why I'm also worried for former Soviet republics.

 

How much of the old USSR's bio-expertise ended up in the republics?  They were the world's experts on bioweapons, and even though most believe this is natural it is sure acting like one.  So maybe it can be squelched like one.

 

The Russians seemed to have shut it down hard and this may be why.    Likewise the Poles and Germans, both of whom had key roles in Warsaw Pact sciences.

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5 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

Pretty major customer of ours (other divisions, AFAIK)

 

Call me unshocked.

 

 

it comes that you are a closet globalist.

 

call me unshocked as well lol.

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1 minute ago, E Rocc said:

 

How much of the old USSR's bio-expertise ended up in the republics?  They were the world's experts on bioweapons, and even though most believe this is natural it is sure acting like one.  So maybe it can be squelched like one.

 

The Russians seemed to have shut it down hard and this may be why.    Likewise the Poles and Germans, both of whom had key roles in Warsaw Pact sciences.

 

 

if you believe the russians have it shut down i have a president that will tell you that its just the flu.

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5 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

Two doctors that opined that ulcers were caused by bacteria were roundly mocked.  They ended up winning a Nobel Prize.

There were two multi-billion dollar reasons they were initially mocked:

Tagamet

Zantac 

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Worth reading....and the interactive chart is amazing. If that information is correct, this shutdown should continue to mid-May. But the chart is incomplete. At some point, a shrinking bell-shaped curve from a contained pandemic gets replaced by a growing bell-shaped curve of worsening health effects/deaths from a Great Depression.
 
Edited by KJP

"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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America, I don't think you're doing this correctly....

 

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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5 hours ago, KJP said:

The number of deaths is the consistent measurement among all countries. And none are showing the number of fatalities consistent with the worst fears. Yet the fatalities that are occurring among vulnerable populations show there is every reason to use significant precautions to keep the virus away from the vulnerable -- and to give more time to build up medical supplies, treatments, etc.

 

First of all, what is the agreed-upon worst case?  Second, I'm not sure anyone can comfortably say that we're avoiding worse case when we're barely a few weeks into exponential rise in the majority of countries, including in the US.  Third, articles and opinion pieces like the above are ridiculous.  It assumes that the world freaked the hell out over something incredibly mild, yet didn't for any other recent virus scares.  Why?  I have seen no attempt to explain the vastly different response.  It simply assumes that the entire world was duped in a massive overreaction, and that is a deeply suspicious viewpoint, especially when we have so few facts and are still in the middle of it.  Are hospitals typically overrun in years with average or more severe flu seasons like 2017?  Did temporary morgues have to be set up for fatality rates at 0.1-0.2%?  I must've missed that, so why would they have to be at 0.01%? The ONLY way I can see that being remotely possible is if it's far more contagious than what we think, but yet somehow didn't manage to become widespread until a few weeks ago.  And only now are we seeing it affect hospitals.  We know incubation is on average about 5 days, so if most people have already had it, where were the severe cases before?  Surely there would've been some.  It just doesn't add up.

 

 

Edited by jonoh81

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21 minutes ago, KJP said:

America, I don't think you're doing this correctly....

 

 

 

Isn't Tokyo train crowding is far worse than NYC's? Or is that old information?

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Covid-19's infection impacts appear to be an average between two extremes... virtually no infection impacts on children and young adults but severe infection and health impacts on the elderly with mortality rates of about 15 percent. 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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We should perhaps look to Seattle (Kirkland, WA) and NYC. I think everyone can learn alot from their crises and strategies for management.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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1 minute ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Isn't Tokyo train crowding is far worse than NYC's? Or is that old information?

 

I don't think many are on the trains now.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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^^It goes back to SARS epidemic a few years ago.  The Asian nations got hit by that and learned their lessons. They take viruses seriously as all nations should. 
   Most countries were taking the temperature of everyone that got off a plane. That doesn’t obviously find all the positive cases but it will get the most active cases instead of them letting them walk freely in the cities and jump back on a plane again like the US handled it. 

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Can we finally put to bed the dumb "this is just another flu" talking point?

 

Apparently not.  Now it's "it's not even as bad as the flu".

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19 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

I don't think many are on the trains now.

 

Of course. But back when the trains were still running at average capacity.

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Based on DeWine's tweets yesterday and what some private businesses are saying, it seems like May 1 is being tossed around as the date things could start reopening. Of course, there's a lot that could change between now and then.

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1 minute ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Of course. But back when the trains were still running at average capacity.

 

Both systems are overcapacity. Some NYC subway trains are difficult to squeeze into at midday. The only thing NYC lacks is Tokyo's platform pushers, even though it could've used them sometimes.

 

Meanwhile....

 

 

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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23 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Apparently not.  Now it's "it's not even as bad as the flu".

 

Ah yes, flu season...every year, you know, we have doctors and nurses taking to social media pleading for medical supplies because they're running out.


Very Stable Genius

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28 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

I don't think many are on the trains now.

 

From footage that was being shown on CNN earlier today, it looked like there were still a lot of people on trains, but not as crowded. The Cherry Blossoms are blooming and people were packing the parks and streets for that - albeit with masks. I wonder if the work culture over there is forcing people to continue to work as telework is still not a thing in Japan.

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No, but some flu seasons are worse than others and I do recall hospitals pleading for help or urging people with less severe symptoms to stay home and not come to the hospital. Ironically, it happened just last fall in Italy and Ukraine where hospitals were swamped with flu cases. I had a personal experience with US hospitals also having a bad Autumn last year as I had the flu (but without a runny nose or sneezing...like COVID-19) that turned to early-stage pneumonia which laid me up for a month. My doctor urged me to take  the medication she prescribed and stay out of the hospital if at all possible because there weren't enough beds or respirators to go around for a wave of pneumonia that was sweeping the area.

 

BTW, I have to wonder if that flu/pneumonia wave last fall was some some of precursor to COVID-19. 

Edited by KJP

"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Things continue to be very fluid with so many unknowns. The accumulation of data is a big one.

I continue to be encouraged however by the candor of Drs. Fauci and Birx.

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Interesting graphic on the suburban counties of Cleveland. can't copy and paste it for some reason.

 

Also:  

"Cleveland Hopkins (CLE): --- Cancellations today (3/26): there are 133 flight cancellations for Cleveland Hopkins: 72 flights to Cleveland and 61 Cleveland departures.

United Airlines is suspending LAX-CLE through the end of April. Currently still on the schedule at 2x daily in May."

 

https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

Edited by Pugu

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1 hour ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

it comes that you are a closet globalist.

 

call me unshocked as well lol.

 

Closet?  I've always been a free trader.   Who criticized the Trump tariffs on metal harder than me here?

We ship a lot of parts to Mexico for assembly, many of which end up in US cars.

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10 minutes ago, KJP said:

BTW, I have to wonder if that flu/pneumonia wave last fall was some some of precursor to COVID-19. 

 

They can test for the flu and pneumonia.  So, uh, no.


Very Stable Genius

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45 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Isn't Tokyo train crowding is far worse than NYC's? Or is that old information?

 

Cleanliness?  Both personal and the train interiors?

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20 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Trust funds are being fueled by companies that make containers for spare parts for GE Aviation and the car companies.   Yes, just the cardboard containers, not the parts themselves.

 

But the Twitter kings and queens can only think about scooters and Airbnb and credit card points.   

 

Corrugated.   Never say "cardboard" in that industry.  🙂

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Think of it like this:

 

Consider Italy:

 

1.) 8,200 deaths

2.) Confined to 1/6th of the country where they have the highest rated healthcare in the country and possibly in all of Europe, right up there

3.) Timeline of 30 days

4.) Severe movement restrictions in place

 

Now unwind:

 

1.) Confinement to 1/6th of the country (considering this 6th of the country has the best hospitals and is the richest in the country and one of the richest in the EU, I will still only use a flat rate): 8,200 x 6 = 49,200 deaths

 

2.) Now, release the extreme movement restrictions, let's just say, that doubles the death toll, even though it probably triples it: 98,400 deaths

 

3.) Now, increase the days to 60 days from 30 days: 98,400 x 2 = 196,800 deaths

 

 

I can guarantee you, these would be SUPER conservative estimates.

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5 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

They can test for the flu and pneumonia.  So, uh, no.

 

I didn't say it was COVID-19. 

 

And as I've been saying, this virus is going to go through the population. Dr. Amy Acton just said 40-70% of us are going to get the virus. It also means we'll be getting immunities.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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New Orleans, San Francisco, Miami, Chicago, Boston, DC and Los Angeles are not out of the woods. While most attention is devoted to NYC, those communities have yet to peaked

 

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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10 minutes ago, KJP said:

I didn't say it was COVID-19. 

 

And as I've been saying, this virus is going to go through the population. Dr. Amy Acton just said 40-70% of us are going to get the virus. It also means we'll be getting immunities.

 

Not really sure what you're wondering about then.


Very Stable Genius

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