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Coronavirus Pandemic

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43 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

^Not reading anything shared by Clay Travis lmao

 

Well if it's a Wall Street Journal article, that ups the credibility perhaps?

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2 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

Well if it's a Wall Street Journal article, that ups the credibility perhaps?

 

It's an opinion piece, first off, and no, not really.  The WSJ has gone downhill in recent years.


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, KJP said:

 

Agreed. Some of those are already happening. And if you get covid-19 and recover, donate plasma.

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the lakes....

 

 

 

If I'm not mistaken, people get regular unemployment too.   That number jumps if you have kids as well.

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2 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

It's an opinion piece, first off, and no, not really.  The WSJ has gone downhill in recent years.

 

Opinion backed by facts that can be investigated.  It's not Karen spouting off because she's bored.

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1 minute ago, BelievelandD1 said:

Two doctors are welcome to make whatever argument they want. There are hundreds of other doctors that are arguing those two.

 

Two doctors that opined that ulcers were caused by bacteria were roundly mocked.  They ended up winning a Nobel Prize.

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The number of deaths is the consistent measurement among all countries. And none are showing the number of fatalities consistent with the worst fears. Yet the fatalities that are occurring among vulnerable populations show there is every reason to use significant precautions to keep the virus away from the vulnerable -- and to give more time to build up medical supplies, treatments, etc.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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1 hour ago, KJP said:

Worth reading....

 

 

 

If anyone has any questions about how unquestionably serious this disease is, just watch this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX-G6zKMajk&t=329s

 

And honestly it doesn't make sense at all that it is 1/10th of the flu, why the heck are so many people dying. In Italy: 10,000 flu deaths per year - 27 deaths per day in the whole country of 60 million people

 

Currently concentrated in one area of Italy, Lombardy, 10 million people: February 22 - March 25 - 7,500 deaths / 30 days = 250 deaths per day

 

Extrapolate that across the whole of Italy * 6 = 1,500 deaths per day

 

That is when the whole country is on freaking complete lockdown. This isn't the flu

 

 

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Because it's much more contagious than the flu. Most rhinoviruses and existing coronaviruses can last on surfaces without a host for only a few hours or a few days. COVID-19 can last up to 14 days.

 

Italy and Spain have older populations, have high-degrees of smoking among male adults, and are heavily anti-vaccine. It's why I'm also worried for former Soviet republics.

Edited by KJP

"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Just now, KJP said:

Because it's much more contagious than the flu. Most rhinoviruses and influenza viruses can last on surfaces without a host for only a few hours or a few days. COVID-19 can last up to 14 days.

 

OK so doesn't that make it much more dangerous than the flu? 

 

Or maybe that ICU directors in NYC now and other countries are saying that once people are hitting the ICU they are having a very difficult time recovering, UNLIKE flu or other pneumatic diseases.

 

People are being placed in prone position, completely knocked out with drugs, with ventilators keeping them alive for upwards of 10-14 days trying to keep them alive and still succumbing. Older patients present with acute organ failure at the hospital. People presenting are having acute pneumatic arrest and other people are having acute cardiac arrest from this disease.

 

Maybe it isn't as deadly as the flu but it is over running hospitals while countries are in complete lockdown, not trying to freak people out, but this is SARS, it isn't flu.

 

Some way to get the country back to work quicker, get everyone tested.. There are going to be people all over the country saying "we shouldn't have shut down the economy!", but what would be the numbers in Italy if they didn't shut everything down? They are probably going to end up having just as many people killed from this disease in Italy as the flu, and that is with a complete 100% shutdown and over a period of 30 days.

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I don't know what this is. But I think we're going to have a better sense of the situation by about mid-April or mid-May. Considering how contagious COVID-19 is, even if we're successful at flattening the curve, this could go through the population by June.

Edited by KJP

"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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14 minutes ago, KJP said:

Because it's much more contagious than the flu. Most rhinoviruses and existing coronaviruses can last on surfaces without a host for only a few hours or a few days. COVID-19 can last up to 14 days.

 

Italy and Spain have older populations, have high-degrees of smoking among male adults, and are heavily anti-vaccine. It's why I'm also worried for former Soviet republics.

 

And to underscore my concern about the former Soviet republics.....

 

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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The last thing I want to do is argue with people or make people mad so I am sorry if I did that, I just think it is part of my duty to advise how dangerous this is, with my wife being a Physical Therapist and having some insight with her colleagues about it.

 

I don't want one person to get this disease because it can be very deadly and even if it doesn't kill you, it can put you down for a long time.

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^^Someone wrote on twitter that wouldn’t it be ironic if the president russia helped get elected ended up being the reason that russia disintegrated.  Russia is going to beat Italy and the US. 
 

@DarthPutinKGB: 20 years ago I was “elected” President and have saved Russia..

Oil
2000: $38
2020: $25
Ruble/$
2000: 30
2020: 80

Edited by audidave

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I'm honestly not sure why some people are so obsessed with determining the "real" mortality rate of Covid-19 or "proving" that it's lower than what health organizations are saying using the extremely incomplete data that we have now. The precise rate is unknowable, unless we know the total number of people who actually got it--the denominator of that fraction. We are all in 100% agreement that many people who get Covid-19 will experience very minor symptoms and will never be tested, and therefore we won't know that number. Any speculation about that number is just that--speculation--whether it's by a medical doctor or Aunt Karen. If and when we have a scientific way of determining that number, it's a different story, and we can start to scientifically determine the real mortality rates.

 

The same thing is true of the flu, by the way. People who get a minor case of the flu may never go to the doctor and may never be counted. So if you're going to use that logic to say "the Covid-19 mortality rate is way lower than what health organizations report," guess what...the flu mortality rate is also way lower than what health organizations report! So you can't really compare heavily discounted Covid-19 mortality rates to "official" flu mortality rates from the WHO.

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22 minutes ago, IAGuy39 said:

Or maybe that ICU directors in NYC now and other countries are saying that once people are hitting the ICU they are having a very difficult time recovering, UNLIKE flu or other pneumatic diseases.

 

Yeah, I'm going to continue to listen to the doctors and medical experts on this and not some random un-scientific guesses from people playing armchair CDC director because their stonks are in the tank.

 

If you read any reports from the hospitals in NYC, it's terrifying.  They are being forced to place PPE (e.g. masks) in paper bags between shifts and re-use them.  They are coming back to covid-19 patients in rooms to find they have passed away.  Etc. Etc. 

 

Sure, we don't know the "true" death rate of it yet, but what is happening in hospitals in Italy and NYC (and probably Spain now) is just devastating.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

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This coronavirus is situated perfectly between SARS and the common cold. It seems to prefer both the upper and lower respiratory tracts in a way that other coronaviruses do not. It more transmissible  which leads to a faster spread however it takes longer to set in so this disease is fast on infection, slow on immune response and potential recovery.

 

The key difference with the flu is that the flu has a lower transmission rate and we have treatments for it. We have a vaccine, we have TamiFlu. There is still no "TamiRona" that is safe and effective in treating this and vaccines are still over a year away.

 

One potential hope is that there is some limited immunity to reinfection from people who already have recovered from the virus.

Quote

On Wednesday, officials of Public Health England said they had purchased millions of newly developed antibody tests and were evaluating them for patients to use at home. Citizens who discovered they had been exposed and now had some immunity to the coronavirus might be able to return to normal lives, the officials said.

 

That would be particularly useful for health care workers. Those who know they have at least some immunity could be placed on the front lines of emergency care, sparing colleagues who have not been exposed.

 

Immunity could last up to a few years given the fact that the virus has not significantly mutated since it started infecting humans. This means a few things:

 

1.) Those already recovered can return to work/society. The most obvious benefit is recovered/post-asymptomatic doctors and nurses. This will protect other health care workers who are still vulnerable to the disease.

2.) Plasma transfusion as a treatment option for severely infected patients.

 


“All truly great thoughts are conceived while walking.”
-Friedrich Nietzsche

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9 minutes ago, taestell said:

I'm honestly not sure why some people are so obsessed with determining the "real" mortality rate of Covid-19 or "proving" that it's lower than what health organizations are saying using the extremely incomplete data that we have now. The precise rate is unknowable, unless we know the total number of people who actually got it--the denominator of that fraction. We are all in 100% agreement that many people who get Covid-19 will experience very minor symptoms and will never be tested, and therefore we won't know that number. Any speculation about that number is just that--speculation--whether it's by a medical doctor or Aunt Karen. If and when we have a scientific way of determining that number, it's a different story, and we can start to scientifically determine the real mortality rates.

 

The same thing is true of the flu, by the way. People who get a minor case of the flu may never go to the doctor and may never be counted. So if you're going to use that logic to say "the Covid-19 mortality rate is way lower than what health organizations report," guess what...the flu mortality rate is also way lower than what health organizations report! So you can't really compare heavily discounted Covid-19 mortality rates to "official" flu mortality rates from the WHO.

 

Yes I mean it doesn't really matter, even if it was the same rate as the flu, it will still completely overrun our system.

 

I believe it is much higher than the flu, because as I was saying, look at China, look at Italy... 

 

I don't think the argument that it has already hit all the areas is even remotely true. Why then are we just seeing surges of patients then? Literally does not make any logical sense.

 

If it went unabated throughout Italy, they would have 6x the rate they have now. IT is concentrated in one area of Italy which is the rich area of 10 million people... 7,500 deaths there * 6 = 45,000 deaths, way more than the 10,000 flu deaths they get per year.

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11 minutes ago, taestell said:

I'm honestly not sure why some people are so obsessed with determining the "real" mortality rate of Covid-19 or "proving" that it's lower than what health organizations are saying using the extremely incomplete data that we have now. The precise rate is unknowable, unless we know the total number of people who actually got it--the denominator of that fraction. We are all in 100% agreement that many people who get Covid-19 will experience very minor symptoms and will never be tested, and therefore we won't know that number. Any speculation about that number is just that--speculation--whether it's by a medical doctor or Aunt Karen. If and when we have a scientific way of determining that number, it's a different story, and we can start to scientifically determine the real mortality rates.

 

The same thing is true of the flu, by the way. People who get a minor case of the flu may never go to the doctor and may never be counted. So if you're going to use that logic to say "the Covid-19 mortality rate is way lower than what health organizations report," guess what...the flu mortality rate is also way lower than what health organizations report! So you can't really compare heavily discounted Covid-19 mortality rates to "official" flu mortality rates from the WHO.

 

We probably won't ever get sufficient data to determine mortality rates. A lot is going to have to be done through extrapolation across multiple data sets from multiple countries. It's hard to make unemotional appraisals of the situation when we're still in it, and especially when someone sees the scenes on the front lines. I'll reserve more resolute opinions for when this emergency is behind us. I hope you all make it through this medically as well as economically.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

Two doctors that opined that ulcers were caused by bacteria were roundly mocked.  They ended up winning a Nobel Prize.

I’m not mocking them. Simply saying they can give their opinion. And we can choose whose opinion to believe more.  If we lose 2300 lives, that would be 1/10 of the flu, however, condensed into a month period. We can manage the flu, it has finite damage.

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On 3/24/2020 at 3:52 PM, Frmr CLEder said:

You also have to consider the population density of NYC and the subway/MetroNorth/PATH/NJ Transit/LIRR transit vectors. Its scary.

 

Even compared to number 2, Los Angeles, NYC was in for a major catastrophe.

 

Density may be a contributing factor, but density alone does not seem to be. 

Quote

But really, anyone who thinks that driving to the suburbs and having a little more space is going to make them safer, they should have a look at Staten Island.


https://www.treehugger.com/urban-design/urban-density-not-enemy-it-your-friend.html

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56 minutes ago, KJP said:

We probably won't ever get sufficient data to determine mortality rates. A lot is going to have to be done through extrapolation across multiple data sets from multiple countries. It's hard to make unemotional appraisals of the situation when we're still in it, and especially when someone sees the scenes on the front lines. I'll reserve more resolute opinions for when this emergency is behind us. I hope you all make it through this medically as well as economically.

 

The most scientifically accurate way would be to select a random, representative sample of the population and test them to see how many have antibodies for this virus. Then you could extrapolate from that data and actually determine approximately how many Americans had the virus, and use that to determine the mortality rate.

 

What people are doing now is guessing how many Americans have Covid-19 but had no symptoms and adding that to all of the people who have tested positive.

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19 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

Where do those people work?

 

How do they get there?

 

Good questions, my guess is that most people in Taipai, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, and NYC all commute on crowded public transit.  You might think that the transportation density would increase transmission of communicable disease.  And yet each of those cities has had different experiences with this illness that is not correlated with their density. 

 

And as the article notes, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island also have different densities and likely all commute by public transit (I don't know NYC very well, so someone else will surely chime in).  But the rates of illness appear to be inverse to the density of those neighborhoods.

 

Can you elaborate on the point you're trying to make?

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Foraker said:

 

Good questions, my guess is that most people in Taipai, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, and NYC all commute on crowded public transit.  You might think that the transportation density would increase transmission of communicable disease.  And yet each of those cities has had different experiences with this illness that is not correlated with their density. 

 

And as the article notes, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island also have different densities and likely all commute by public transit (I don't know NYC very well, so someone else will surely chime in).  But the rates of illness appear to be inverse to the density of those neighborhoods.

 

Can you elaborate on the point you're trying to make?

 

 

 

The NYC subway doesn't even go to Staten Island.  It's basically a suburb.

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March 26 (GMT)

6034 new cases and 40 new deaths in the United States. LIVE: New York State Gov. Cuomo press briefing:

- COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients). "We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator"

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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22 minutes ago, IAGuy39 said:

March 26 (GMT)  6034 new cases and 40 new deaths in the United States. LIVE: New York State Gov. Cuomo press briefing:
 

 

Is that the official number for the day? That doesn't seem right.  Both are sharply down from previous trends, if so.   

 

Never mind - they seem to keep a running tally on the site as new information comes out.  Not ideal.

Edited by PittsburgoDelendaEst

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Just now, PittsburgoDelendaEst said:

 

Is that the official number for the day? That doesn't seem right.  Both are sharply down from previous trends, if so. 

 

Sorry, no, just the tally I think from NY state when they updated, not the whole USA. The whole USA isn't updated usually until 11 pm.

 

I was more highlighting this part:

 

- COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients). "We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator"

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26 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

My company's Alex Jones guy says that Covid-19 was designed by the U.S. government to be triggered by 5G cell phone towers.  

 

Right Wing nutjobs cannot stand that the rural areas might empty out since 5G won't work in them.

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It looks like Italy just reported the second highest new # of infections they have had (after 4 days of decreases), deaths decreased a bit from yesterrday but in line with the average of the last 5 days. Italy has hit their yearly average total of flu deaths per year in a span of 30 days while on complete lockdown:
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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2 hours ago, Foraker said:

 

Density may be a contributing factor, but density alone does not seem to be. 


https://www.treehugger.com/urban-design/urban-density-not-enemy-it-your-friend.html

For perspective, community spread accelerates having 100s of thousands of commuters twice/day on crowded trains and stations. This is the single greatest infectious disease transmission vehicle, that must not be ignored. It has enabled the infection rate to skyrocket in that region. Remember New Rochelle?

You wouldn't see this in NEO because while it does have some density in the city, it does not have the volume of ridership to transmit the virus throughout the region. It only takes one person however.

 

This is the reason the tri-state  area (NY, NJ and CT) are working in concert to control the epidemic.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Seems important. 
 

@DarrenEuronews: NEW: Germany’s Bosch says it has developed a test for Covid-19 that can deliver a diagnosis in under 2.5 hours, and does not need to be taken to a lab

Developed in just 6 weeks, can also check for nine other respiratory diseases, including the flu, using a single sample

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