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Coronavirus Pandemic

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59 minutes ago, seicer said:

When the test validations are performed, they include everything used to collect, analyze and report test results; the collection kit, the assay, analytical method, reagents, controls, equipment, reporting etc. The results must be proven reliable, valid and reproducible.

 

A deviation in the device or method of collection could change the results.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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3 hours ago, Frmr CLEder said:

Are all hospitals and testing centers utilizing the same test criteria?

 

Do you mean the criteria to get a test?  No. For example, UH will test any age---CLE clinic won't. Other factors as well.  Scroll down to the section "DRIVE-THRU CORONAVIRUS TESTING" on this site--it shows the differences:

 

https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

Edited by Pugu

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22 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Ughh---from today's report from the Center for Cleveland:

 

"Despite the decrease in the rate of new reported cases in Metropolitan Cleveland, the current rate of increase of 17.5% is dangerously high. At this rate, with 268 cases today, there would be 104,600 cases in Greater Cleveland by April 30th if this rate is maintained. Statewide, the current 564 confirmed cases at today’s daily increase rate of 27.6% would result in 4.7 million cases in Ohio on April 30th if the current rate continues."

 

 

 

Extrapolating is bad for your health

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17 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

Do you mean the criteria to get a test?  No.  Scroll down to the section "DRIVE-THRU CORONAVIRUS TESTING" on this site--it shows the differences:

 

https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

Thanks and this is what I suspected. 

 

With different facilities utilzing different criteria, it limits the utility, validity and the ability to make any assumptions about any data that's being generated and collected. I think right now, everyone is just trying to get through this the best way they can with the limited resources available to them. Not the best approach, but we have no other options given our late acknowledgement of the pandemic, limited testing capabilities and resultant delayed response.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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56 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

I listened to his presser on NPR.   He did a pretty good job toeing the line.  It's sad that even GOP politicians have to behave this way or face the wrath of the Donald, including vindictive actions that hurt Americans. 

I was listening on NPR as well and an AP reporter asked a very artful question comparing a DeWine tweet to a Trump tweet sent minutes apart that were completely opposed.  The reporter challenged DeWine's earlier comments in the press conference, with the two tweets as evidence, praising the manner in which Trump was handling things and saying they were on the same page.  He sheepishly made a dumb joke about how he should not tweet and then weakly started to say they were in agreement and at they point I just turned off the radio, disgusted, without hearing the rest of his response.  I certainly know the way the world goes around but for once it would be refreshing to come across a politician with the courage of his convictions.

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4 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Extrapolating is bad for your health

 

Agreed!  But it IS useful in trying to convince people who don't take this seriously that this is serious business. 4 million ohioans--at say a 1.5% fatality rate is 60,000 people. And for those fighting the shutdowns, that's 60,000 people never again buying things, eating in restaurants, drinking beers, etc.

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"Kinsa Health" manufactures a digital thermometer that enables them to track fevers around the country.

 

While NYC is high, Cleveland is moderate, but all of Florida is red hot; the exception, as one would expect, being the Everglades. Possibly a good indicator for NEO. Probably not a good indicator of things to come in Florida.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/kinsas-fever-map-could-show-211625593.html

 

Edited by Frmr CLEder
Added link for fever heat map

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Also not a good indicator for the returning spring breakers coming back to Ohio from Florida.  They should probably be tested and do a 2 week quarantine once they come back esp since they missed the fun. 

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34 minutes ago, audidave said:

Also not a good indicator for the returning spring breakers coming back to Ohio from Florida.  They should probably be tested and do a 2 week quarantine once they come back esp since they missed the fun. 

 

Hawaii is now requiring anyone arriving in the state to self-quarantine for 14 days. Unfortunately we can't do that as easily here because of the ease of driving across state borders. But then again we might see a total shutdown of air travel, so...

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17 minutes ago, X said:

 

I am aware that the test is not just a cotton swab.  But the cotton swabs are what's missing.

Then that's a problem because not any cotton swab(s) will do.

 

They have specs and I believe the nasal swab is longer than the throat swab

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A terrific article that's being constantly updated with new information....

 

Coronavirus medicine: The vaccines and drugs in development to treat COVID-19

A number of treatments and vaccines have been proposed to tackle the coronavirus pandemic. Here's what you need to know about them.

https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/coronavirus-medicine-the-vaccines-and-drugs-in-development-to-treat-covid-19/


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Here's one of the most interesting ones from the chart above: cases by state/territory normalized by population. Because obviously, highly populated states will have more cases, but when you normalize for that, which states are doing better/worse?

 

normalized.png

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In addition to moving forward with antibody testing, New York State is now preparing for the use of antibody-rich blood to treat the most critically ill coronavirus patients.

 

They're in real trouble, but without being proactive, they foreshadow every other state in 2-3 weeks.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fda-will-allow-doctors-treat-critically-ill-coronavirus-patients-blood-n1167831?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=clevelanddotcom_sf

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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9 hours ago, X said:

 

I am aware that the test is not just a cotton swab.  But the cotton swabs are what's missing.

 

With that and news that China manufactures many of our medicines, I wonder if that will pressure the federal government to force these producers back into the states. It's not just the medicines that are made overseas, but the ingredients and chemicals. Prior to China, many drugs were created in Puerto Rico (and some of those sites are now abandoned) but that's been shrinking for years.

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9 minutes ago, seicer said:

 

With that and news that China manufactures many of our medicines, I wonder if that will pressure the federal government to force these producers back into the states. It's not just the medicines that are made overseas, but the ingredients and chemicals. Prior to China, many drugs were created in Puerto Rico (and some of those sites are now abandoned) but that's been shrinking for years.

Most manufacturers have primary and secondary suppliers but many of the raw materials are also made in China, India or S. Korea.

 

The elimination of Section 936 has crippled pharmaceutical manufacturing in Puerto Rico and with it, the high paying jobs. The negative impact has been apparent.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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7 hours ago, taestell said:

Here's one of the most interesting ones from the chart above: cases by state/territory normalized by population. Because obviously, highly populated states will have more cases, but when you normalize for that, which states are doing better/worse?

 

normalized.png

 

Looks like Ohio could start leveling off in the next 2-5 days. I'm curious to see how long it will take to start falling. 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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10 hours ago, taestell said:

 

Hawaii is now requiring anyone arriving in the state to self-quarantine for 14 days. Unfortunately we can't do that as easily here because of the ease of driving across state borders. But then again we might see a total shutdown of air travel, so...

 

I have a buddy and his wife set to move to Hawaii next month.  That'll be interesting.


Very Stable Genius

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27 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

I have a buddy and his wife set to move to Hawaii next month.  That'll be interesting.

 

I, too, know people expected to move there in May. This actually might be a commerce clause violation if challenged... 

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Just now, YABO713 said:

 

I, too, know people expected to move there in May. This actually might be a commerce clause violation if challenged... 

With Trump preparing to go to Easter Sunday Services, I dont see a ban on all air travel happening unless the airlines initiate it themselves.

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37 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Looks like Ohio could start leveling off in the next 2-5 days. I'm curious to see how long it will take to start falling. 

This is great news for Ohio. DeWine's proactive stance probably was the contributing factor. It's been reported that the effects of social distancing can be observed within 7-14 days.

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37 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Looks like Ohio could start leveling off in the next 2-5 days. I'm curious to see how long it will take to start falling. 

 

I am encouraged by what Ohio has been doing and am similarly optimistic but I expect that we're going to see an uptick due to potentially infected students returning from a beach (or other similar gatherings) spring break and giving it to their families and friends.


“All truly great thoughts are conceived while walking.”
-Friedrich Nietzsche

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7 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

This is great news for Ohio. DeWine's proactive stance probably was the contributing factor. It's been reported that the effects of social distancing can be observed within 7-14 days.

 

And to be honest (knock on wood) his proactive early stance limited more drastic action from being required. 

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1 minute ago, YABO713 said:

 

And to be honest (knock on wood) his proactive early stance limited more drastic action from being required. 

 

Unfortunately since we lacked leadership at the top of the Federal government, it doesn't matter how successful our state is if the ones around us are taking no action and letting their citizens roam free. 

 

Im not sure it was posted yesterday, but this editorial in the NY Times yesterday was spot on: 

 

Coronavirus Is Advancing. All Americans Need to Shelter in Place.

The worst of the pandemic is yet to come. Listen to the medical experts. It’s time for a national lockdown.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/opinion/coronavirus-trump-lockdown.html

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https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?fbclid=IwAR1Dpg6hCMdV9mdyAVWAeZpse78DGdkAuwF-fu_BEKsKsPIJyFXRz2efaHU

 

Using GPS data on people's phones (I believe via apps), you can start to see which states - even down to the county-level - are really cutting back on their distance traveled.  Ohio gets an A with an average distance reduction of 40%.


Very Stable Genius

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I can't keep up with the activity in this thread, I am busier than ever right now, but can anyone tell me if there is a thread directly related to projects, permitting, etc being delayed or cancelled due to COVID or the economy? Most of my contractors are saying business as usual, but I think developers are singing a different tune.

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17 hours ago, Frmr CLEder said:

No. Let's not blame the contagion on Chinese-Americans.

 

If that were the case, San Franciso and Vancouver, BC, would be through the roof.

 

San Francisco is getting there, I guess.

Ethnicity isn't an issue, recent travel may be.  Students is what I am thinking.

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Anyone interested, this is pretty scary, hearing on the front line news about COVID, from the ICU director of a New York City Hospital.

 

Some notes:
 

Many patients are in ICU for a very long time, compared to other diseases - they recover at times then suddenly take a turn for the worse

Many patients are dying of cardiac arrest, they don't know why yet

There are patients in their 20's and 30's being admitted into the ICU

Doctors in ICU don't know about taking the drugs Trump talks about, because many times these drugs end up hurting the patients, they need data.

 

Anyways, have a listen:

 

 

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13 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?fbclid=IwAR1Dpg6hCMdV9mdyAVWAeZpse78DGdkAuwF-fu_BEKsKsPIJyFXRz2efaHU

 

Using GPS data on people's phones (I believe via apps), you can start to see which states - even down to the county-level - are really cutting back on their distance traveled.  Ohio gets an A with an average distance reduction of 40%.

 

I wonder how distorted the data can be with the rural versus urban divide. When I'm looking at data for Kentucky, some of the "worst" offenders are also the most rural counties. People still need to get groceries, go to work (rural areas have far longer commutes). And in general, looking at the broader map of the US divided down into county view, that's what it looks like.

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38 minutes ago, JYP said:

 

I am encouraged by what Ohio has been doing and am similarly optimistic but I expect that we're going to see an uptick due to potentially infected students returning from a beach (or other similar gatherings) spring break and giving it to their families and friends.

Unfortunately Florida Governor DeSantis (R) has still done nothing to end the partying throughout the state. Individual mayors have been forced to take action because he will not.

There have been recent reports of party boats in Biscayne Bay. The mayor of Miami-Dade has finally issued a stay in place order, shutting down everything as of midnight. Unfortunately, it may be too late.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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13 minutes ago, seicer said:

 

I wonder how distorted the data can be with the rural versus urban divide. When I'm looking at data for Kentucky, some of the "worst" offenders are also the most rural counties. People still need to get groceries, go to work (rural areas have far longer commutes). And in general, looking at the broader map of the US divided down into county view, that's what it looks like.

 

All I know is I'm 5 months into my lease and I'm already 1,200 under where I could be 🙂

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22 minutes ago, sabotage619 said:

I can't keep up with the activity in this thread, I am busier than ever right now, but can anyone tell me if there is a thread directly related to projects, permitting, etc being delayed or cancelled due to COVID or the economy? Most of my contractors are saying business as usual, but I think developers are singing a different tune.

 

There is not. I would discuss Coronavirus-related delays in the normal Projects and Transportation threads where those projects are normally discussed. The economic impact is also being discussed in several threads in the Ohio Business and Economy section.

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1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

San Francisco is getting there, I guess.

Ethnicity isn't an issue, recent travel may be.  Students is what I am thinking.

This was one reason Ohio officials were aware of this earlier than others - Ohio is the sister state to Hubei Province, capital Wuhan, and many Ohio universities have exchanges programs with universities in Hubei. A couple of Miami Univ students came back positive, pushing Ohio officials to act sooner than other states. 

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1 minute ago, westerninterloper said:

This was one reason Ohio officials were aware of this earlier than others - Ohio is the sister state to Hubei Province, capital Wuhan, and many Ohio universities have exchanges programs with universities in Hubei. A couple of Miami Univ students came back positive, pushing Ohio officials to act sooner than other states. 

 

I thought those students actually tested negative.

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