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Community spread was occurring in WA state as early as January. 

I thought I shared a WSJ article on the ease of getting from Wuhan to the rest of the world.

 

Their airport is more than twice as busy as CLE.

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It's going to be interesting to see what happens to the restaurant industry after this. Many will fold, but at the same time, demand for new and creative restaurant experiences has never been higher. So I think a new restaurant boom might follow in a couple years. Landlords are going to want to re-fill those spaces ASAP and rents will come down. It could turn into an East-Berlin-after-the-wall-fell creativity free-for-all.

Edited by mu2010

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15 hours ago, gottaplan said:

So what's your big theory?  That these conservative areas are getting infected because they listened to Fox News & the pres & didn't isolate fast enough, so they deserve to get sick?  And who suggested a page up that this was just a big effort to let it run rampant in urban areas & kill off liberal strongholds?  WTF

 

A) I know the range isn't massive, probably 10-12 cases a zip. 

 

B) Although its anecdotal, I have family members who refuse to stay inside and distance because they insist the liberal media is exaggerating to hurt Trump. I.e. My grandparents  just invited everyone over for an "Easter breakfast buffet"

 

C) Idk how you think I said anyone "deserves" to get sick because of this. I pointed out a loose correlation. I wouldn't wish Covid-19 on anyone. 

Edited by YABO713

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Well there is good news that Abbott labs is going to pump out 50,000 tests a week by April 1 to be used in their machines all over the US. Testing is really step one to start getting away from this everyone in quarantine situation. 
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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23 hours ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

i would hope the two essentials are not profits and reckless behavior with corona spreading in the works.

 

They are specifically defined in the declaration.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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19 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Well, either way, the outbreak looks to have started 3 weeks earlier than thought in Ohio, but it's definitely ramping up only recently.

 

Semi-anecdotal evidence suggests two to three months.   Antibodies tests may bear that out.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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16 hours ago, gottaplan said:

you are nuts.  Totally impossible.  THe same number of people will get sick regardless.  It's just over what period of time.  Jeez.  As if this incredible virus somehow could've been avoided.  By what, a massive bubble?  

 

Totally impossible now, but if we had acted sooner (maybe if we had followed South Korea's example!) we could have contained the spread and greatly reduced the number of people who got sick.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down

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1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

 

B) Although its anecdotal, I have family members who refuse to stay inside and distance because they insist the liberal media is exaggerating to hurt Trump. I.e. My grandparents  just invited everyone over for an "Easter breakfast buffet"

 

C) Idk how you think I said anyone "deserves" to get sick because of this. I pointed out a loose correlation. I wouldn't wish Covid-19 on anyone. 

 

I've said it before & I'll say it again.  the political correlations that some are attempting to make here are just idiotic.  To say wealthy/conservative areas are seeing a spike because they didn't take it seriously based on watching Fox News is crazy.  People make their own decisions every day based on risk factors.  What sort of cable news they happen to watch is irrelevant.  Plenty of elderly fox news watchers are huddled up with doors locked not going anywhere since this was announced.

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1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

Semi-anecdotal evidence suggests two to three months.   Antibodies tests may bear that out.

Unfortunately the antibody tests in development (IgG/IgM) will not be predictive of "when" the patient was infected. These qualitative assays (Positive/Negative) only detect the presence of antibodies to viral antigen. They can however determine the depth and breadth of the pandemic.

 

The ability to test (diagnose)or not, will always be critical to our ability to respond to health-related issues. It has been the single greatest "miss" early in this pandemic.

 

As a clinician, the question is "how will this information impact patient management?" Whether its isolation, quarantine, vaccination or treatment, it will be based upon available test results.

 

If you're not testing, your're not getting the information needed to effectively manage your patient(s). 

 

We weren't testing until months into this pandemic. Some communities still lack testing supplies and testing criteria are inconsistent from location to location and that impacts reporting on the macro and micro levels.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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23 minutes ago, Foraker said:

 

Totally impossible now, but if we had acted sooner (maybe if we had followed South Korea's example!) we could have contained the spread and greatly reduced the number of people who got sick.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down

Perhaps.  Maybe.  Possibly.  But totally impossible to say.   There are so many variables for every scenario - amount of testing, ability to sequester people, level of interaction/regional travel, etc etc etc

 

Also impossible to say if any of these countries is out of the woods yet.  Maybe South Korea has to deal with steady rate of infections for many months on while others experiencing a spike move on to noramalcy sooner.  Nobody really knows do they?

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4 minutes ago, gottaplan said:

Perhaps.  Maybe.  Possibly.  But totally impossible to say.   There are so many variables for every scenario - amount of testing, ability to sequester people, level of interaction/regional travel, etc etc etc

 

Also impossible to say if any of these countries is out of the woods yet.  Maybe South Korea has to deal with steady rate of infections for many months on while others experiencing a spike move on to noramalcy sooner.  Nobody really knows do they?

Until there's a vaccine or everyone in the populace is infected, there will always be a risk of additional waves of infection. The first wave, which we are in the midst of, is the worst, because no one has immunity. Every subsequent wave should be more and more  diminished as we approach "herd immunity."

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32 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Are these death panels?

 

We are getting to the genocide stage of fascism. 

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2 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

Semi-anecdotal evidence suggests two to three months.   Antibodies tests may bear that out.

 

I still have trouble believing it occurred that long ago with the incubation times.  The media narrative was that China has this under control, and maybe they do now, but they were literally welding people into their homes at one point.  They also recognized the new virus after only a few dozen cases.  This suggests to me that it's always been very contagious and serious, but also against it going through the greater population in the US unnoticed.

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11 minutes ago, freefourur said:

 

We are getting to the genocide stage of fascism. 

 

I want off this ride.

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2 hours ago, gottaplan said:

 

I've said it before & I'll say it again.  the political correlations that some are attempting to make here are just idiotic.  To say wealthy/conservative areas are seeing a spike because they didn't take it seriously based on watching Fox News is crazy.  People make their own decisions every day based on risk factors.  What sort of cable news they happen to watch is irrelevant.  Plenty of elderly fox news watchers are huddled up with doors locked not going anywhere since this was announced.

I also don’t see the correlation with zip codes. You can’t single out pepper pike and chagrin falls and ignore the saturation in the Heights, which leans liberal.  Plus, IMO, I think suburban conservatives, ya know, smart people who are educated and mostly just lean that direction don’t hold Fox News as the gospel like most rural areas do. 
 

 

as for the accusations on Trump. Donald Trump cares about himself above and beyond anything else, including people’s lives.  Everything that happens or doesn’t happen on his watch will be based around how it will impact his image and likability. Look no further than him saying he’s not picking up the phone for governors that have called him out in the past. His cheap shot on Mitt Romney. It’s all about him and only about him. I’m not saying he’s going out of his way to lose lives, but it’s not unthinkable to say he doesn’t care much when they are lost...as long as it doesn’t impact him

Edited by BelievelandD1

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Even during times of panic, DC is business as usual.  Sadly the "wasteful" spending could probably be addressed elsewhere, if Congress wasn't so polarized.  

 

Is There Wasteful Spending In The Coronavirus Stimulus Bill?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2020/03/26/is-there-wasteful-spending-in-the-coronavirus-stimulus-bill/?fbclid=IwAR3_Q8R8n7mePLAKkt37eV08q1mwBtwtUxNUl7nVYdzrDd82PCqpl590bS4#881205660aee

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2 hours ago, gottaplan said:

 

I've said it before & I'll say it again.  the political correlations that some are attempting to make here are just idiotic.  To say wealthy/conservative areas are seeing a spike because they didn't take it seriously based on watching Fox News is crazy.  People make their own decisions every day based on risk factors.  What sort of cable news they happen to watch is irrelevant.  Plenty of elderly fox news watchers are huddled up with doors locked not going anywhere since this was announced.

 

I agree with this. By far, most Republicans know the gravity of the situation, are taking it seriously and heeding all of the health recommendations/requirements. Instead, it's Right-Wing think tanks trying to pushing anti-scientific rhetoric on them. For the most part Republicans (including politicians) aren't biting. What putting this stuff out there does do is give the Left even more chances to heckle the rhetoric the machine cranks out -- as if there weren't enough already.

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1406 cases, 25 deaths in Ohio.  344 hospitalizations and 123 in ICU.

Edited by jonoh81

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The administration, Republicans and the right-wing media didnt begin to take this seriously until the economic community did.

 

It wasn't until the S&P500 lost 1/3 of its value (lost 10K points from 30K) in two weeks, that we started to see movement in Washington. By then, the elderly were already dying in a Kirkland, WA nursing home. Despite calls for testing, the FDA didnt approve its first EUA until 3/5/2020, a week after DJT announced millions of tests were available.

MS and AL are always the last to come on board for any education or health-related issue.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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42 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

The administration, Republicans and the right-wing media didnt begin to take this seriously until the economic community did.

 

It wasn't until the S&P500 lost 1/3 of its value (lost 10K points from 30K) in two weeks, that we started to see movement in Washington. By then, the elderly were already dying in a Kirkland, WA nursing home. Despite calls for testing, the FDA didnt approve its first EUA until 3/5/2020, a week after DJT announced millions of tests were available.

MS and AL are always the last to come on board for any education or health-related issue.

 

Can we please not lump all Republicans together?  If you looks at Governors Mike DeWine has been arguably the poster child at taking this seriously.   You have the mayor of NYC encouraging people from NYC on March 2 to travel during spring break and go about their normal lives in spite of Coronavirus warnings.  There have been other examples of Democratic leadership not taking it seriously and not acting fast enough.  Now in general has the left taken it more seriously than the right (especially in terms of the media and high up leadership)?  Yes!  But let's stop trying to paint everything in broad brush strokes.  It just causes further polarization.

Edited by cle_guy90

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26 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

 

Can we please not lump all Republicans together?  If you looks at Governors Mike DeWine has been arguably the poster child at taking this seriously.   You have the mayor of NYC encouraging people from NYC on March 2 to travel during spring break and go about their normal lives in spite of Coronavirus warnings.  There have been other examples of Democratic leadership not taking it seriously and not acting fast enough.  Now in general has the left taken it more seriously than the right (especially in terms of the media and high up leadership)?  Yes!  But let's stop trying to paint everything in broad brush strokes.  It just causes further polarization.

I'm sorry but I lump the Washington Republicans into a single bucket. Last time I checked, DeWine resided in Columbus.

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54 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

 

Can we please not lump all Republicans together?  If you looks at Governors Mike DeWine has been arguably the poster child at taking this seriously.   You have the mayor of NYC encouraging people from NYC on March 2 to travel during spring break and go about their normal lives in spite of Coronavirus warnings.  There have been other examples of Democratic leadership not taking it seriously and not acting fast enough.  Now in general has the left taken it more seriously than the right (especially in terms of the media and high up leadership)?  Yes!  But let's stop trying to paint everything in broad brush strokes.  It just causes further polarization.

 

Federal Republicans certainly.  And at least some state and local, as well.  DeWine has been more of an exception, unfortunately.  

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https://www.aier.org/article/we-were-wrong-so-sorry-that-we-ruined-your-life/

 

We need extensive testing, NOW, randomized, so we can make some important decisions in the coming weeks.  

 

"...  right now there are two contrary strains about to collide. On the one hand, you have scientists reducing their death-rate predictions further and further, lopping off zeros by the day. On the other hand, this is accompanied by appalling levels of despotism, even to the point of National Guard checkpoints at state borders and restrictions on what you can buy even at “essential” stores."

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16 minutes ago, Jimmy Skinner said:

https://www.aier.org/article/we-were-wrong-so-sorry-that-we-ruined-your-life/

 

We need extensive testing, NOW, randomized, so we can make some important decisions in the coming weeks.  

 

"...  right now there are two contrary strains about to collide. On the one hand, you have scientists reducing their death-rate predictions further and further, lopping off zeros by the day. On the other hand, this is accompanied by appalling levels of despotism, even to the point of National Guard checkpoints at state borders and restrictions on what you can buy even at “essential” stores."


That quote is quite misleading. It even links to this article: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-is-on-course-to-reduce-total-death-rate-3gn7hfjzk?fbclid=IwAR1BQTPXoBN2IQdlr_BEgmBKBjOHpg4pFjk0r13-5x_90_V8vKCH5u9FpRc

 

which states the following:

“They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”“


The AIER opinion piece uses the times piece to imply that the experts were originally wrong and thus are reducing death rates. The article they quote says something quite different in which the death rates are reducing because of what we are doing. It’s an extremely garbage article.

 

 

Edit: the article AEIR links to is titled 

 

Coronavirus: Lockdown ‘is on course to reduce total death rate’


quite clear in my opinion that the original estimates of a worst case scenario aren’t coming true because we did something....

Edited by RDB

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 Hmm. maybe it is a garbage article, but I found the video interview with Dr. John Ioannidis at the bottom of the article very informative.  I know it is an hour long, but ...

 

We don't have information and we were not prepared.  Sure, closing everything down works, but it is a big giant hammer that kills in other ways.

 

Think about this.  On the Princess Cruise ship, all those people were in close quarters, eating together etc, and 20% of them got the virus and of those 20%, 1% died, and this is an older population. But there are predictions that 60% of us will get this and that 3.4% of them will die?  Come on. 

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:32 PM, Jimmy Skinner said:

 Hmm. maybe it is a garbage article, but I found the video interview with Dr. John Ioannidis at the bottom of the article very informative.  I know it is an hour long, but ...

 

We don't have information and we were not prepared.  Sure, closing everything down works, but it is a big giant hammer that kills in other ways.

 

Think about this.  On the Princess Cruise ship, all those people were in close quarters, eating together etc, and 20% of them got the virus and of those 20%, 1% died, and this is an older population. But there are predictions that 60% of us will get this and that 3.4% of them will die?  Come on. 

It takes us back to testing and the data limitations.

 

We dont know that 20% of the passengers got the virus because:

1. Not everyone who has the virus is symptomatic and would therefore be tested and

2. Resolved infections will not test positive (+) with a molecular assay. Molecular assays test for viral antigen only.

3. Only antibody tests can determine who has been infected, and they have not yet been approved.

 

The 3.4% was an early mortality rate, before we had more widespread molecular testing available. The most recent number has been between 1.2-1.7% of "confirmed cases." We know that asymptomatic, afebrile with symptoms or mild-to-moderate symptoms, without fever are not being tested, but may still be infected and contagious.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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1 hour ago, Jimmy Skinner said:

my understanding is that every passenger was tested and that they were tested relatively quickly.  So while it is possible that some were asymptomatic and had already recovered, that does not seem likely, especially in this older population.  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

 

 

 

I dont see how this could have been because these cruises were February to mid-March. No FDA-approved testing was available before 3/6/2020. The first FDA EUA was approved on 3/5/2020. These patients were tested overseas.

 

Prior to approved test availability and some unapproved testing in WA state, presumptive cases (febrile with symptoms) was all we had to go on in the US.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Downing Street says China faces a 'reckoning' over the coronavirus https://mol.im/a/8163767 via http://dailym.ai/android

 

It seems very premature to begin these conversations, but when normalcy returns, there will have to be some kind of global consensus/Postdam Conference in which China owns this and begins mass scale compensations. 

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^ Yeah. That’s never gonna happen. China does want to continue to modernize its populace and will use this as an excuse to start to crack down on things, like wet-markets and traditional medicine, that Beijing know belong in medieval times. In fact, one may be inclined to think this was done for this reason.


And they reckon that the last thing she saw in her life was
Sting, singing on the roof of the Barbican

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DeSantis has been in lock step with Trump. He's been more concerned with the financial impact than the health and well being of Floridians. He has closed nothing, except to request voluntary quarantine for New York area residents. The mayors have done the heavy lifting.

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This could be the reason that trump isn’t sending much help to the states. 
 

@CorinneAM: February 7: "...17.8 tons of donated medical supplies to the Chinese people, including masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials. These donations are a testament to the generosity of the American people." What is this @SecPompeo @StateDept ? https://twitter.com/soychicka/status/1244039457889751040

 

also things happening in FLA probably not a big deal or anything:

 

@TheRickWilson: It has hit the Villages. 

31 cases and counting. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-lake-county-infected-20200326-2u3suejfybarbi7czwl7jyh4ky-story.html https://twitter.com/colliedog44/status/1244005850051571712

 

Edited by audidave

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percapita2.thumb.png.d74498addd6f7b9cbca5e18ecf23e939.png

 

 

Also:  "Ohio had 6 new fatalities since yesterday, bringing the state’s total to 25. Three of these 6 fatalities were in Metropolitan Cleveland fatalities: 1 in each of Summit, Cuyahoga, and Lake Counties."

 

 

https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

 

Edited by Pugu

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On 3/28/2020 at 10:09 PM, audidave said:

This could be the reason that trump isn’t sending much help to the states. 
 

@CorinneAM: February 7: "...17.8 tons of donated medical supplies to the Chinese people, including masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials. These donations are a testament to the generosity of the American people." What is this @SecPompeo @StateDept ? https://twitter.com/soychicka/status/1244039457889751040

 

also things happening in FLA probably not a big deal or anything:

 

@TheRickWilson: It has hit the Villages. 

31 cases and counting. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-lake-county-infected-20200326-2u3suejfybarbi7czwl7jyh4ky-story.html https://twitter.com/colliedog44/status/1244005850051571712

 

The Villages is a huge Senior Community that is no stranger to communicable and sexually transmitted diseases. They're a very, very socially active bunch. If it's there, it'll spread very quickly.

 

Ten years ago, I received an urgent call from a physician to consult on a dramatic spike in syphilis cases and he needed assistance interpreting test results and public health in the community.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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