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Coronavirus Pandemic

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1 hour ago, TBideon said:

And there are vaccines for the flu; nothing for coronavirus.

 

POTUS told me the flu vaccine helps against COVID-19.  I am comforted.


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I highly encourage he tests that theory. There's always prayer if it doesn't work.

Edited by TBideon

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2 hours ago, audidave said:

The right wing conspiracy world is all about the virus coming out of a lab in Wuhan. There is a correlation of researchers from Canada that were caught sending SARS virus samples to the lab there. Whether it was unknowingly released or accidentally released is obviously unknown. I really have no doubt they were testing this disease on animals. So researchers can say they have a 90% confidence that it came from animals.  I would wait to hear from bioengineers that have looked at and reviewed the RNA. Supposedly the full RNA was released online by another lab in China in January. 

 

 

i have read in many places that it came from the wuhan lab workers selling bats and other animals to wuhan wet markets for side money. 

 

who knows? but i think so far they do know or highly suspect it came from bats in the wet markets.

 

btw chinese wet markets can be nasty. they leave stuff out in the open too long. "just keep spraying water on it it will be ok" lol. riiiiight.

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I was on a flight Friday and a good 10+ people on the plane had masks.  Absolute morons.  It is not transferred via air.  And even if it were, I doubt these people got their masks fitted to be *exactly* airtight.  Panic is real out there.


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If any of them were sick, it would be beneficial for them to wear a mask to protect others. But most (probably all of them) of them were probably wearing them to protect themselves.

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The thing that keeps any infectious disease, or any crisis, from turning into a disaster is when people take it seriously, but don't panic.  Just ignoring it doesn't make it not a problem, and going nuts and doing irrational things only makes it worse.

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16 hours ago, ryanlammi said:

If any of them were sick, it would be beneficial for them to wear a mask to protect others. But most (probably all of them) of them were probably wearing them to protect themselves.

 

Correct - I don't think any of them were actually sick.  This was all before a lot of the warnings came down that masks don't really serve any purpose, unless you're a healthcare worker or you're sick.  But they did a study on people who don't regularly wear masks and then do so and they end up touching their face MORE because they constantly are adjusting it.


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11 hours ago, X said:

The thing that keeps any infectious disease, or any crisis, from turning into a disaster is when people take it seriously, but don't panic.  Just ignoring it doesn't make it not a problem, and going nuts and doing irrational things only makes it worse.

 

There is a report from NY of a guy testing positive, being told to self-quarantine... and then he goes to a party and now 1000 people are being monitored.  People are dumb, and it's beyond containment. 

In Europe, the numbers are exploding. Today, 4 additional countries reported their first cases- Palestine, South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia.  

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I normally don't get freaked out by these things, but yesterday it kinda hit me and now I can't stop thinking about it. I hope this is somehow contained. I'm worried it will become a part of "cold and flu and coronovirus season" but if you get COVID-19, you're much worse off. 

 

I'm just worried about my parents 😞 . 

 

I'm encouraged by the statement of jmecklenborg that it might not become a big thing, but I was reading this Atlantic piece and well....I kinda am leaning towards this being the correct scenario: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

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On ‎3‎/‎4‎/‎2020 at 5:13 PM, DarkandStormy said:

I was on a flight Friday and a good 10+ people on the plane had masks.  Absolute morons.  It is not transferred via air.  And even if it were, I doubt these people got their masks fitted to be *exactly* airtight.  Panic is real out there.

 

UPDATE - the airport I flew into has confirmed someone who arrived there on the day I did (EDIT - he arrived a day later, but I went back through that same airport on the 3rd) has been confirmed to have COVID-19 (he apparently was in Italy a few days before) *and* also was skiing at the resort I went to.

 

Good times.  I'll let ya'll know if I end up with symptoms in the next 2-14 days.

Edited by DarkandStormy

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6 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

UPDATE - the airport I flew into has confirmed someone arrived there on the day I did and has been confirmed to have COVID-19 (he apparently was in Italy a few days before) *and* also was skiing at the resort I went to.

 

Good times.  I'll let ya'll know if I end up with symptoms in the next 2-14 days.

Yikes. I hope everything goes well for you. 

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And sh!t like this is happening, despite that Pence says everyone coming from Italy is being screened....

 

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Total cases have surged past 100,000 and are far outweighing recoveries now (most of the recoveries were from China, if one believes their numbers).  6 new places have reported their first-  Costa Rica, Bhutan, Cameroon, Slovakia, Serbia... and Vatican City.  Cases in Europe continue to rise rapidly, and the US response remains an unmitigated disaster. Only 75,000 of the promised 1 million tests have managed to be delivered, and yet Pence suggested 4 million would be available next week.  

Edited by jonoh81

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On 3/4/2020 at 5:13 PM, DarkandStormy said:

I was on a flight Friday and a good 10+ people on the plane had masks.  Absolute morons.  It is not transferred via air.  And even if it were, I doubt these people got their masks fitted to be *exactly* airtight.  Panic is real out there.

 

What are you talking about? Covid-19 IS transmittable via the air.  If an infected person sneezes or coughs and you inhale that you could get it. That's why its so highly contagious as we can't control who around us coughs or sneezes and when you're on a plane you can't really run away.  Yes, planes have HEPA filters but a lot of that sneeze or cough circulates around the plane before it gets sucked into the filtration system.  If you've been around sick people please self-quarantine yourself just to be safe to not spread it around to others.

 

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2 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Yikes. I hope everything goes well for you. 

 

I mean, I'm in good health so I'm not too worried if I get it.  I think the average age of the person who contracted it in Italy is like 83, which suggests to me that younger people just think it's the common flu and aren't getting tested.  I could be wrong about that, though.

 

I have been washing my hands like crazy even before finding out I was in the same airport as a person with COVID-19.  But yeah, I'm definitely running straight to an urgent care center the minute I notice anything remotely resembling the flu.  Thankfully, we have some masks from when we bought a bunch of paint supplies.


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No I think you’re correct @DarkandStormy. Young people are infected but the symptoms are so mild they aren’t seeking out testing for it. Which on the downside means there are many people with little to no symptoms who may be spreading the virus unknowingly.

 

South Korea is doing the most widespread testing of anybody, and as a result is the mortality rate is hovering around 0.5%, which is probably the most accurate data so far.

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A place we do business with in another state confirmed the owner and his wife had the coronavirus and the owner was in the hospital for 3-4 weeks recovering from severe pneumonia.

 

They would be 2 of the 4 confirmed cases in that state if there is only 4 confirmed cases. The wife didn't really get sick.

 

They only traveled from an inland area of California from Los Angeles, fairly close to Las Vegas (you can probably guess the area) for a 1 week vacation and flew back a week later so the time frame on this is about 5 weeks back from the start of the vacation. You don't think this virus is going to be everywhere soon you are sorely mistaken, IMO!!

Edited by IAGuy39

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1 minute ago, Enginerd said:

No I think you’re correct @DarkandStormy. Young people are infected but the symptoms are so mild they aren’t seeking out testing for it. Which on the downside means there are many people with little to no symptoms who may be spreading the virus unknowingly.

 

South Korea is doing the most widespread testing of anybody, and as a result is the mortality rate is hovering around 0.5%, which is probably the most accurate data so far.

 

From what I've read, there really aren't any people who are asymptomatic entirely.  Everyone eventually develops some symptoms, but obviously some are much more severe than others.  In the meantime, they're spreading it, as you say.  

 

As for SK, the rate of 0.5%-0.7% is still 5x-7x more deadly than flu.  Of course, not every country is going to have the same fatality rate, either.  You have to consider infection rates, health of the population, average age of the population,  security procedures, quality of health systems in place, etc.  I think SK is the best case scenario, but it probably won't be the common one.

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15 minutes ago, Pugu said:

What are you talking about? Covid-19 IS transmittable via the air.  If an infected person sneezes or coughs and you inhale that you could get it. That's why its so highly contagious as we can't control who around us coughs or sneezes and when you're on a plane you can't really run away.  Yes, planes have HEPA filters but a lot of that sneeze or cough circulates around the plane before it gets sucked into the filtration system.  If you've been around sick people please self-quarantine yourself just to be safe to not spread it around to others.

 

https://time.com/5794729/coronavirus-face-masks/

 

Quote

It’s no surprise that face masks are in short supply—despite the CDC specifically not recommending them for healthy people trying to protect against COVID-19. “It seems kind of intuitively obvious that if you put something—whether it’s a scarf or a mask—in front of your nose and mouth, that will filter out some of these viruses that are floating around out there,” says Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University. The only problem: that’s not effective against respiratory illnesses like the flu and COVID-19. If it were, “the CDC would have recommended it years ago,” he says. “It doesn’t, because it makes science-based recommendations.”

 

Quote

The science, according to the CDC, says that surgical masks won’t stop the wearer from inhaling small airborne particles, which can cause infection. Nor do these masks form a snug seal around the face. The CDC recommends surgical masks only for people who already show symptoms of coronavirus and must go outside, since wearing a mask can help prevent spreading the virus by protecting others nearby when you cough or sneeze. The agency also recommends these masks for caregivers of people infected with the virus.

 

Sorry, my point about the premature use of masks in the airport is that it's specifically not a recommended way to prevent the disease from spreading, unless you're already sick.  Pretty sure the CDC also says you're more likely to get it from touching your face than breathing in those droplets through the air.

 

No evidence yet that I've been anywhere near someone who has been sick (it would help if the Colorado authorities would let the public know where this patient stayed and when) other than possibly being on the same 6,800+ acre mountain as this person.


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25 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 and the US response remains an unmitigated disaster. 

 

Larry Kudlow told us it's basically contained.  Today.


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26 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Total cases have surged past 100,000

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

image.thumb.png.486dba6b5796404d60148dad05f69f08.png

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Anybody that isn't at least a little concerned must not have any loved ones in their lives over the age of 60.

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4 minutes ago, aderwent said:

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

Don't know how helpful that is, considering places like...*THE U.S.*...aren't really testing.  At least not at the scale needed.

 

Like we mentioned above, a probably not insignificant number of cases are being contracted by the under ~45 population and they're not getting tested because their symptoms are so mild.  In other words, I don't think we have the full picture yet in a lot of countries, ours included.


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19 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Larry Kudlow told us it's basically contained.  Today.

Lol. Where did Kudlow go to medical school and why is he even talking about Corona virus 

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6 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Lol. Where did Kudlow go to medical school and why is he even talking about Corona virus 

 

Trump University.


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24 minutes ago, aderwent said:

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

image.thumb.png.486dba6b5796404d60148dad05f69f08.png

 

Toggle the Y-Axis to "Actual" (at the bottom of the graph), and you'll see the number of new cases is skyrocketing and isn't anywhere close to leveling off.  The y-axis is misleading when it is logarithmic.

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38 minutes ago, aderwent said:

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

image.thumb.png.486dba6b5796404d60148dad05f69f08.png

 

Using that site, here are the daily changes this week.  Since different countries report their numbers at different times, I've been using 10pm EST as the standard measurement.  

 

Total case change per day this week.

3/1-3/2: +1864

3/2-3/3: +2221

3/3-3/4: +2255

3/4-3/5: +2970

3/5-3/6: +2304 through 11am.

 

Active cases were declining part of the week due to China's overall reported decline, but that is also no longer true. 

3/1-3/2: -1141

3/2-3/3: -553

3/3-3/4: -366

3/4-3/5: +680

3/5-3/6: +706 through 11am

 

Total recoveries have also been on the decline.

3/1-3/2: +2931

3/2-3/3: +2694

3/3-3/4: +2565

3/4/-3/5: +2161

3/5-3/6: +338 through 11am.

 

These aren't positive trends, and one could argue that they're surging upward, but that's a matter of verbiage.

 

Peru and Togo reporting first cases. That's now 97 nations and territories. Is it a pandemic yet?

 

Edited by jonoh81

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10 minutes ago, Wally said:

 

Toggle the Y-Axis to "Actual" (at the bottom of the graph), and you'll see the number of new cases is skyrocketing and isn't anywhere close to leveling off.  The y-axis is misleading when it is logarithmic.

This is exactly the use case for logarithmic. There's a reason I didn't use actual, and why actual is used to scare people who don't understand statistics.

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