Jump to content
KJP

Coronavirus Pandemic

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 and the US response remains an unmitigated disaster. 

 

Larry Kudlow told us it's basically contained.  Today.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Total cases have surged past 100,000

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

image.thumb.png.486dba6b5796404d60148dad05f69f08.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody that isn't at least a little concerned must not have any loved ones in their lives over the age of 60.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, aderwent said:

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

Don't know how helpful that is, considering places like...*THE U.S.*...aren't really testing.  At least not at the scale needed.

 

Like we mentioned above, a probably not insignificant number of cases are being contracted by the under ~45 population and they're not getting tested because their symptoms are so mild.  In other words, I don't think we have the full picture yet in a lot of countries, ours included.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Larry Kudlow told us it's basically contained.  Today.

Lol. Where did Kudlow go to medical school and why is he even talking about Corona virus 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Lol. Where did Kudlow go to medical school and why is he even talking about Corona virus 

 

Trump University.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, aderwent said:

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

image.thumb.png.486dba6b5796404d60148dad05f69f08.png

 

Toggle the Y-Axis to "Actual" (at the bottom of the graph), and you'll see the number of new cases is skyrocketing and isn't anywhere close to leveling off.  The y-axis is misleading when it is logarithmic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, aderwent said:

It is not surging. The rate of new cases has been constant if not starting to taper off.

 

image.thumb.png.486dba6b5796404d60148dad05f69f08.png

 

Using that site, here are the daily changes this week.  Since different countries report their numbers at different times, I've been using 10pm EST as the standard measurement.  

 

Total case change per day this week.

3/1-3/2: +1864

3/2-3/3: +2221

3/3-3/4: +2255

3/4-3/5: +2970

3/5-3/6: +2304 through 11am.

 

Active cases were declining part of the week due to China's overall reported decline, but that is also no longer true. 

3/1-3/2: -1141

3/2-3/3: -553

3/3-3/4: -366

3/4-3/5: +680

3/5-3/6: +706 through 11am

 

Total recoveries have also been on the decline.

3/1-3/2: +2931

3/2-3/3: +2694

3/3-3/4: +2565

3/4/-3/5: +2161

3/5-3/6: +338 through 11am.

 

These aren't positive trends, and one could argue that they're surging upward, but that's a matter of verbiage.

 

Peru and Togo reporting first cases. That's now 97 nations and territories. Is it a pandemic yet?

 

Edited by jonoh81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Wally said:

 

Toggle the Y-Axis to "Actual" (at the bottom of the graph), and you'll see the number of new cases is skyrocketing and isn't anywhere close to leveling off.  The y-axis is misleading when it is logarithmic.

This is exactly the use case for logarithmic. There's a reason I didn't use actual, and why actual is used to scare people who don't understand statistics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Using that site, here are the daily changes this week.  Since different countries report their numbers at different times, I've been using 10pm EST as the standard measurement.  

 

Total case change per day this week.

3/1-3/2: +1864

3/2-3/3: +2221

3/3-3/4: +2255

3/4-3/5: +2970

3/5-3/6: +2304 through 11am.

 

Active cases were declining part of the week due to China's overall reported decline, but that is also no longer true. 

3/1-3/2: -1141

3/2-3/3: -553

3/3-3/4: -366

3/4-3/5: +680

3/5-3/6: +706 through 11am

 

Total recoveries have also been on the decline.

3/1-3/2: +2931

3/2-3/3: +2694

3/3-3/4: +2565

3/4/-3/5: +2161

3/5-3/6: +338 through 11am.

 

These aren't positive trends, and one could argue that they're surging upward, but that's a matter of verbiage.

 

One could argue we'll see the same thing that happened in China happen for the rest of the world. We're just two months behind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No worries, you guys. Trump just said "we stopped it, we contained it."

 

And you can't catch it if you don't test for it...

 Think About It Reaction GIF by Identity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Italy is insane.  Just reported almost 800 more cases and another 49 deaths.

 

Meanwhile, China is seeing 2nd waves from other countries.  17 new cases in one province just from Iran. How long can they realistically maintain a massive lockdown without major long-lasting economic consequences?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

No worries, you guys. Trump just said "we stopped it, we contained it."

 

And you can't catch it if you don't test for it...

 Think About It Reaction GIF by Identity

 

I'm reminded of that John Cusack line from the movie 2012 about how when celebrities tell you everything's fine, that's when you run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, aderwent said:

One could argue we'll see the same thing that happened in China happen for the rest of the world. We're just two months behind.

 

Yes, only throw in 6.5 billion more people and no similar crackdown methods. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/06/your-brain-capitalism-cnbc-market-analyst-rick-santelli-calls-infecting-global

 

Quote

After a volatile day of trading on Wall Street Thursday precipitated by ongoing fears of the economic effects of the global coronavirus outbreak, CNBC analyst Rick Santelli suggested it would be better to infect the world population with the disease all at once to help stock prices. 

 


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Yes, only throw in 6.5 billion more people and no similar crackdown methods. 

Still not as deadly as the regular flu, and the regular flu seems to be at a low this year. Also, there have been 80,000 cases in China. Your 6.5 billion more would only be accurate if everyone in China had gotten Covid-19; not the .005%. It's almost like some people are making money from the $8.3 billion bill. Some others might be testing quarantine normalization. This should be more scary to you than the very slim chance you or someone you know even will die from Covid-19.

 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/culture-mind-and-brain/202002/the-coronavirus-is-much-worse-you-think

Edited by aderwent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the news media is acting even more irresponsibly than usual when it comes to this. The panicky and urgent tone they use when even one case--someone with the most mild symptoms--is reported is appalling. Although I have to admit this story is pretty disgusting. This guy should at least be required to do some community service!

 

 

Told to Stay Home, Suspected Coronavirus Patient Attended Event With Dartmouth Students

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/coronavirus-new-hampshire-dartmouth.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, aderwent said:

Still not as deadly as the regular flu, and the regular flu seems to be at a low this year. Also, there have been 80,000 cases in China. Your 6.5 billion more would only be accurate if everyone in China had gotten Covid-19; not the .005%. It's almost like some people are making money from the $8.3 billion bill. Some others might be testing quarantine normalization. This should be more scary to you than the very slim chance you or someone you know even will die from Covid-19.

 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/culture-mind-and-brain/202002/the-coronavirus-is-much-worse-you-think

 

Pandemics are prevented by people overreacting to potential threats. Meanwhile folks will read too much into garbage articles like these that lack context or perspective:

 

Quote

The coronavirus is a similar no-brainer. As a generic member of the human species, you have about the same odds of dying of the coronavirus as winning in the gambling scenario. These are overall rates, meaning that unless you are already in very poor health, are very old, or very young, the odds for you are much lower. Or next to nil.

 

Good thing we don't have millions of old, very young, or in-poor health people in the United States. For those that don't seem to care if they get sick (you'll be fine, right?), try not to infect your parents, aunts/uncles, or other elderly you see at the grocery store, where the mortality rate is an order of magnitude higher.

 

Quote

Our minds like to jump to threatening headlines with big, alarming numbers. As this post was first aired, a total of 80,000 cases of COVID-19 had been reported in 40 countries. To put things in perspective again, this is a mere 0.0001% of the world population. In comparison, seasonal outbreaks of influenza make 3 to 5 million people sick enough to seek treatment worldwide (up to 0.06% of the population) while many more cases go undetected. The seasonal flu results in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths each year — up to 0.008% of the population.

 

One week after this article printed, the number of infected is now 100,000. And that is from a starting point of ZERO, unlike influenza which has some level of infection simmering all year around the world. BTW, Italy reported another 50 deaths today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, aderwent said:

Still not as deadly as the regular flu, and the regular flu seems to be at a low this year. 

 

Regular flu isn't actually low this year.  The vaccine effectiveness is much less this year.  And there's no COVID-19 vaccine.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, aderwent said:

Still not as deadly as the regular flu, and the regular flu seems to be at a low this year. Also, there have been 80,000 cases in China. Your 6.5 billion more would only be accurate if everyone in China had gotten Covid-19; not the .005%. It's almost like some people are making money from the $8.3 billion bill. Some others might be testing quarantine normalization. This should be more scary to you than the very slim chance you or someone you know even will die from Covid-19.

 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/culture-mind-and-brain/202002/the-coronavirus-is-much-worse-you-think

 

The "not as bad as the regular flu" stuff has been endlessly discounted by the WHO and CDC, both of which have a bit more experience with these kinds of things than Psychology Today.  I'm not arguing for everyone to panic, or that I'm worried about dying from it.  I just think a lot of people are suffering from normalcy bias.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, eastvillagedon said:

the news media is acting even more irresponsibly than usual when it comes to this. The panicky and urgent tone they use when even one case--someone with the most mild symptoms--is reported is appalling. Although I have to admit this story is pretty disgusting. This guy should at least be required to do some community service!

 

 

Told to Stay Home, Suspected Coronavirus Patient Attended Event With Dartmouth Students

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/coronavirus-new-hampshire-dartmouth.html

 

You do realize that even mild cases can spread it and cause severe cases or even deaths, right?  In any case, these stories are really common because they don't take it seriously.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Regular flu isn't actually low this year.  The vaccine effectiveness is much less this year.  And there's no COVID-19 vaccine.

 

The regular flu seems to be causing pneumonia.   My daughter had a mild case of the latter and missed 2-1/2 weeks of school.   A former co-worker at the bar, woman in her late 40s, ended up with a double collapsed lung and in a coma.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

You do realize that even mild cases can spread it and cause severe cases or even deaths, right?  In any case, these stories are really common because they don't take it seriously.  

ummm, yeah, that's why I posted the story. You just demonstrated that you don't even bother to read my posts before commenting on them. But, whatever. Carry on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How does the coronavirus outbreak end?

 

 

In late January, I posed a simple question to several experts in public health and epidemiology: How does the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak end? Back then, the virus was still mainly just spreading in China, and the scientists we spoke with outlined a hopeful scenario: containment.

 

The idea is that through identifying and isolating the sick, the virus could be kept from spreading in communities around the globe. It seemed reasonable: Containment was how the 2003 SARS outbreak — also caused by a member of the coronavirus family — ended.

 

Now, many experts tell Vox, that scenario seems impossible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, eastvillagedon said:

ummm, yeah, that's why I posted the story. You just demonstrated that you don't even bother to read my posts before commenting on them. But, whatever. Carry on. 

 

I read your post- it was an insinuation at the media was overreacting to mild cases.  A significant portion of South Korea's outbreak was caused by a religious cult that apparently intentionally tried to infect people.  40% of the cult's infectious members were in their 20s and had mild cases, yet still managed to help spread it to something like 4,000 people.  

 

Incidentally, this is also the reason why we shouldn't be taking the SK death rate as the true rate for this pandemic.  A huge number of the positive infections were people younger than 40 and in good health, and are drastically different than the average age of the nation's population.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, seicer said:

How does the coronavirus outbreak end?

 

 

In late January, I posed a simple question to several experts in public health and epidemiology: How does the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak end? Back then, the virus was still mainly just spreading in China, and the scientists we spoke with outlined a hopeful scenario: containment.

 

The idea is that through identifying and isolating the sick, the virus could be kept from spreading in communities around the globe. It seemed reasonable: Containment was how the 2003 SARS outbreak — also caused by a member of the coronavirus family — ended.

 

Now, many experts tell Vox, that scenario seems impossible.

 

Who would have thought that one of the Trump administration's legacies is how they bungled the response to a crisis so badly that it contributed to the global spread of a virus that will likely endanger millions of lives long after they're out of office.  

 

Talk about elections having consequences...

Edited by jonoh81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I haven't really been worrying about this at all until yesterday where I started to really read about it. I've been started to panic about my parents for traveling this weekend. They are both in their low 60ss and they are traveling to Florida for 2 weeks and they have a transfer at Atlanta airport.

 

They leave Sunday. Should I stop them with all my might or am I being crazy?

 

My mom absolutely can't get this. She's not exactly the epitome of health and she has diabetes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Mendo said:

 

Pandemics are prevented by people overreacting to potential threats. Meanwhile folks will read too much into garbage articles like these that lack context or perspective:

 

 

Good thing we don't have millions of old, very young, or in-poor health people in the United States. For those that don't seem to care if they get sick (you'll be fine, right?), try not to infect your parents, aunts/uncles, or other elderly you see at the grocery store, where the mortality rate is an order of magnitude higher.

 

 

One week after this article printed, the number of infected is now 100,000. And that is from a starting point of ZERO, unlike influenza which has some level of infection simmering all year around the world. BTW, Italy reported another 50 deaths today.

Freedoms are taken, money is moved, and powers are gained by people overreacting to potential threats. Meanwhile folks read too much into media propaganda lacking context and perspective.

 

Appeal to emotion doesn't stop statistics.

 

BTW, 1,766 people died every single day in Italy last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Regular flu isn't actually low this year.  The vaccine effectiveness is much less this year.  And there's no COVID-19 vaccine.

It's not low you're right. It's about average. We're on pace for about 7,500 flu deaths.

 

Prior seasons:

 

2013-2014: 4,492

2014-2015: 8,205

2015-2016: 3,443

2016-2017: 6,946

2017-2018: 15,625

2018-2019: 7,170

2019-2020: 3,497 so far

Edited by aderwent
autocorrect capitalized pace...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, aderwent said:

Freedoms are taken, money is moved, and powers are gained by people overreacting to potential threats. Meanwhile folks read too much into media propaganda lacking context and perspective.

 

Appeal to emotion doesn't stop statistics.

 

BTW, 1,766 people died every single day in Italy last year.

 

Yes and statistics without context are meaningless. More people die from gun violence and heart disease every year too. Not sure how that is relevant.

 

edit: What bugs me most is that you claim others lack perspective while citing articles with pointless stats like the percentage of the total population that's gotten sick from COVID-19 as if that has some relevance to it's risk. If that's how you and others get their "perspective" than we're in deep sh**.

Edited by Mendo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The "not as bad as the regular flu" stuff has been endlessly discounted by the WHO and CDC, both of which have a bit more experience with these kinds of things than Psychology Today.  I'm not arguing for everyone to panic, or that I'm worried about dying from it.  I just think a lot of people are suffering from normalcy bias.  

Why would I listen to CDC numbers? They're still claiming, and outlets like the Washington Post are still peddling "Up to 46,000 deaths" when we're on pace for ~7,500. Even their low end is 18,000.

 

Appeal to authority is strong when it's government entities. If they have good info to peruse that's cool, but no way in hell do I take them at face value. The FDA and their expert nutrition guidelines have ruined Americans' health, but I should just listen to their food pyramid instead of the numbers telling me to limit sugar and bread and that fat is fine?

Edited by aderwent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's be frank about it. The U.S. might have the least reliable reporting numbers of any democracy impacted by the virus. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, aderwent said:

Why would I listen to CDC numbers? They're still claiming, and outlets like the Washington Post are still peddling "Up to 46,000 deaths" when we're on pace for ~7,500. Even their low end is 18,000.

 

Appeal to authority is strong when it's government entities. If they have good info to peruse that's cool, but no way in hell do I take them at face value. The FDA and their expert nutrition guidelines have ruined Americans' health, but I should just listen to their food pyramid instead of the numbers telling me to limit sugar and bread and that fat is fine?

 

I'm not saying the CDC is perfect, especially now under this administration.  What I am saying is that if you're going to claim this is no big deal, you need better sources than psychology articles from people who are not disease/viral specialists.  Simply saying you don't trust anyone is not proof that this is no worse than the flu, or in your argument, not even as big a deal as the regular flu.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Let's be frank about it. The U.S. might have the least reliable reporting numbers of any democracy impacted by the virus. 

 

Absolutely.  There is no way there are only 335 cases out there.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As for "no worse than the regular flu", preliminary studies are showing that while many people hope it dies out over summer, there has been no supporting evidence that changes in weather have any effect on transmission rates.  

 

Meanwhile, many nations are declaring states of emergency- most recently the Philippines- over this no big deal.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Let's be frank about it. The U.S. might have the least reliable reporting numbers of any democracy impacted by the virus. 

All to protect the ego of dear leader.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How did we bungle this up so badly with the CDC when their prior responses to SARS and other diseases/viruses/etc. were spot on? It can't just be this presidential administration - these are errors that have been compounded.

 

--

 

On a personal note, I'm not that concerned but with a 9%-15% death rate for those 70 years of age, that hits kind of hard because my parents are fast approaching that age. One had a double bypass heart procedure years ago, the other recently had cancer and is now fully recovered. But that knocks them down a notch on the survivability list.

Edited by seicer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't understand all the fuss. This is just a democratic hoax fueled by Obama's incompetence, and even if you do get it, you can still go to work and fuction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Zyrokai said:

So I haven't really been worrying about this at all until yesterday where I started to really read about it. I've been started to panic about my parents for traveling this weekend. They are both in their low 60ss and they are traveling to Florida for 2 weeks and they have a transfer at Atlanta airport.

 

They leave Sunday. Should I stop them with all my might or am I being crazy?

 

My mom absolutely can't get this. She's not exactly the epitome of health and she has diabetes.

 

You should tell them to go and have a good time! Obviously taking basic precautions like lots of hand-washing (probably the best preventative) and using hand sanitizer (but now impossible to find in NYC) and they should be fine. Listen to Dr. Drew and stop giving in to the panic

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, eastvillagedon said:

 

You should tell them to go and have a good time! Obviously taking basic precautions like lots of hand-washing (probably the best preventative) and using hand sanitizer (but now impossible to find in NYC) and they should be fine. Listen to Dr. Drew and stop giving in to the panic

 

 

Shocking news that the Trump Network would be downplaying this.  Also, didn't this guy once have a tv show on MTV with Jimmy Kimmel giving sex advice?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over 130,000 tests completed in South Korea.

 

7,041 positive for Covid-19: 5.4%

44 deaths: 0.6%

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Between the Cleveland Clinic, OSU Medical Center and University of Cincinnati Medical Center, there are no Coronavirus labs? Is that why there's no confirmed cases in Ohio? Either they're incompetent or unconcerned....

 

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^That's crazy, esp. as Ohio is the 7th largest state in the country. The others are all pretty small in population.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/7/2020 at 11:43 AM, eastvillagedon said:

 

You should tell them to go and have a good time! Obviously taking basic precautions like lots of hand-washing (probably the best preventative) and using hand sanitizer (but now impossible to find in NYC) and they should be fine. Listen to Dr. Drew and stop giving in to the panic

 

Thank you. I did wish them a good trip, but I gave them a stern lecture on the severity of this issue and the proper hygiene procedures to reduce risk. They seemed to be on board, because prior to that they didn't really think this was a big deal.

 

I'm not as panicked as I was last Friday, but I'm still worried. I don't think the US is ready for what's about to unfold.

Edited by Zyrokai
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...