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Coronavirus Pandemic

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27 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

I have a buddy and his wife set to move to Hawaii next month.  That'll be interesting.

 

I, too, know people expected to move there in May. This actually might be a commerce clause violation if challenged... 

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Just now, YABO713 said:

 

I, too, know people expected to move there in May. This actually might be a commerce clause violation if challenged... 

With Trump preparing to go to Easter Sunday Services, I dont see a ban on all air travel happening unless the airlines initiate it themselves.

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37 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Looks like Ohio could start leveling off in the next 2-5 days. I'm curious to see how long it will take to start falling. 

This is great news for Ohio. DeWine's proactive stance probably was the contributing factor. It's been reported that the effects of social distancing can be observed within 7-14 days.

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37 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Looks like Ohio could start leveling off in the next 2-5 days. I'm curious to see how long it will take to start falling. 

 

I am encouraged by what Ohio has been doing and am similarly optimistic but I expect that we're going to see an uptick due to potentially infected students returning from a beach (or other similar gatherings) spring break and giving it to their families and friends.


“All truly great thoughts are conceived while walking.”
-Friedrich Nietzsche

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7 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

This is great news for Ohio. DeWine's proactive stance probably was the contributing factor. It's been reported that the effects of social distancing can be observed within 7-14 days.

 

And to be honest (knock on wood) his proactive early stance limited more drastic action from being required. 

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1 minute ago, YABO713 said:

 

And to be honest (knock on wood) his proactive early stance limited more drastic action from being required. 

 

Unfortunately since we lacked leadership at the top of the Federal government, it doesn't matter how successful our state is if the ones around us are taking no action and letting their citizens roam free. 

 

Im not sure it was posted yesterday, but this editorial in the NY Times yesterday was spot on: 

 

Coronavirus Is Advancing. All Americans Need to Shelter in Place.

The worst of the pandemic is yet to come. Listen to the medical experts. It’s time for a national lockdown.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/opinion/coronavirus-trump-lockdown.html

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https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?fbclid=IwAR1Dpg6hCMdV9mdyAVWAeZpse78DGdkAuwF-fu_BEKsKsPIJyFXRz2efaHU

 

Using GPS data on people's phones (I believe via apps), you can start to see which states - even down to the county-level - are really cutting back on their distance traveled.  Ohio gets an A with an average distance reduction of 40%.


Very Stable Genius

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I can't keep up with the activity in this thread, I am busier than ever right now, but can anyone tell me if there is a thread directly related to projects, permitting, etc being delayed or cancelled due to COVID or the economy? Most of my contractors are saying business as usual, but I think developers are singing a different tune.

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17 hours ago, Frmr CLEder said:

No. Let's not blame the contagion on Chinese-Americans.

 

If that were the case, San Franciso and Vancouver, BC, would be through the roof.

 

San Francisco is getting there, I guess.

Ethnicity isn't an issue, recent travel may be.  Students is what I am thinking.

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Anyone interested, this is pretty scary, hearing on the front line news about COVID, from the ICU director of a New York City Hospital.

 

Some notes:
 

Many patients are in ICU for a very long time, compared to other diseases - they recover at times then suddenly take a turn for the worse

Many patients are dying of cardiac arrest, they don't know why yet

There are patients in their 20's and 30's being admitted into the ICU

Doctors in ICU don't know about taking the drugs Trump talks about, because many times these drugs end up hurting the patients, they need data.

 

Anyways, have a listen:

 

 

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13 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?fbclid=IwAR1Dpg6hCMdV9mdyAVWAeZpse78DGdkAuwF-fu_BEKsKsPIJyFXRz2efaHU

 

Using GPS data on people's phones (I believe via apps), you can start to see which states - even down to the county-level - are really cutting back on their distance traveled.  Ohio gets an A with an average distance reduction of 40%.

 

I wonder how distorted the data can be with the rural versus urban divide. When I'm looking at data for Kentucky, some of the "worst" offenders are also the most rural counties. People still need to get groceries, go to work (rural areas have far longer commutes). And in general, looking at the broader map of the US divided down into county view, that's what it looks like.

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38 minutes ago, JYP said:

 

I am encouraged by what Ohio has been doing and am similarly optimistic but I expect that we're going to see an uptick due to potentially infected students returning from a beach (or other similar gatherings) spring break and giving it to their families and friends.

Unfortunately Florida Governor DeSantis (R) has still done nothing to end the partying throughout the state. Individual mayors have been forced to take action because he will not.

There have been recent reports of party boats in Biscayne Bay. The mayor of Miami-Dade has finally issued a stay in place order, shutting down everything as of midnight. Unfortunately, it may be too late.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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13 minutes ago, seicer said:

 

I wonder how distorted the data can be with the rural versus urban divide. When I'm looking at data for Kentucky, some of the "worst" offenders are also the most rural counties. People still need to get groceries, go to work (rural areas have far longer commutes). And in general, looking at the broader map of the US divided down into county view, that's what it looks like.

 

All I know is I'm 5 months into my lease and I'm already 1,200 under where I could be 🙂

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22 minutes ago, sabotage619 said:

I can't keep up with the activity in this thread, I am busier than ever right now, but can anyone tell me if there is a thread directly related to projects, permitting, etc being delayed or cancelled due to COVID or the economy? Most of my contractors are saying business as usual, but I think developers are singing a different tune.

 

There is not. I would discuss Coronavirus-related delays in the normal Projects and Transportation threads where those projects are normally discussed. The economic impact is also being discussed in several threads in the Ohio Business and Economy section.

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1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

San Francisco is getting there, I guess.

Ethnicity isn't an issue, recent travel may be.  Students is what I am thinking.

This was one reason Ohio officials were aware of this earlier than others - Ohio is the sister state to Hubei Province, capital Wuhan, and many Ohio universities have exchanges programs with universities in Hubei. A couple of Miami Univ students came back positive, pushing Ohio officials to act sooner than other states. 

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1 minute ago, westerninterloper said:

This was one reason Ohio officials were aware of this earlier than others - Ohio is the sister state to Hubei Province, capital Wuhan, and many Ohio universities have exchanges programs with universities in Hubei. A couple of Miami Univ students came back positive, pushing Ohio officials to act sooner than other states. 

 

I thought those students actually tested negative.

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I'll just leave this right here:

 

This is sounds like conservative correctness run amok. Let's ignore the the official name of the virus and call it the ching chong china virus to make the president less sad.

Edited by freefourur

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17 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

This is Trump running America like a business, instead of the people's government.   Cut corners wherever you can.  Worry about the effects later.   

This is Trump running America like its HIS business.

 

BTW, the official name of the novel coronavirus, for the disease COVID-19 is "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 
(SARS-CoV-2)." 

 

Unfortunately the President and his followers would screw it up, mispronounce the name and be totally confused.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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55 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

Boeing should be treated like everyone else but I have no sympathy for them. They were already in trouble.

 

They lost their way. It's not the same company that it was when still based in Seattle.

 

The company listened to the bean counters instead of the engineers, resulting in more than 300 people's deaths. To top it off, the former CEO and several officers received multi-million dollar bonuses and golden parachutes in the midst of the 737MAX disaster.

 

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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17 hours ago, freefourur said:

A trillion here, a trillion there pretty soon we're talking about real money.

 

6 trillion = 20,000 for every person, including children, in the USA.  

 

Amazing how the spread of a virus over the course of three weeks can completely crush an ideology.  Like, we should never take libertarians seriously again.


Very Stable Genius

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2 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

Boeing should be treated like everyone else but I have no sympathy for them. They lost their way. It's not the same company that it was when still based in Seattle.

The company listened to the bean counters instead of the engineers, resulting in more than 300 people's deaths. To top it off, the former CEO and several officers received multi-million dollar bonuses and golden parachutes in the midst of the 737MAX disaster.

 

No defense of Boeing, but curious if you had same level of disgust for the auto makers that were bailed out back in 2009.  

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Boeing has been a company in turmoil for some time, with ethical and engineering lapses - but it's also one of those companies that is "too big to fail." If they are desperate enough, they'll take a handout for oversight despite what the company line might be. They aren't hurting enough.

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there seems to be a leveling off a bit. Last 3 days increases for new cases in Ohio:

 

25.93%     27.60%     25.89%

 

 

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5 minutes ago, freefourur said:

there seems to be a leveling off a bit. Last 3 days increases for new cases in Ohio:

 

25.93%     27.60%     25.89%

 

 

 

At 25% per day, that's still almost a doubling of cases every three days.

 

So if there are 704 cases today, that means in 10 days, 6,556 cases and 76,000 cases on April 15th.

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^ I agree. but we had been hovering at about 40% for a bit so 25% is an improvement. Although, there are a lot of caveats with these data.

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1 minute ago, Pugu said:

 

At 25% per day, that's still almost a doubling of cases every three days.

 

So if there are 704 cases today, that means in 10 days, 6,556 cases and 76,000 cases on April 15th.

 

Yes but if this is indeed leveling off the first leveling off is the percent increase (think second derivative - rate of increase), then the number of cases per day begin to level (first derivative - increase amount), then comes the actual decrease of cases per day.  Hopefully we have indeed reached an inflection point (sorry I was a math major and can't think of a better way to word it).

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^That is flattening the curve but you can probably expect it to "peak" at around 14% to 20% (5-7 Day doubling time) and run there for about 15 days then slowly recede.

 

I still get a little confused on their math saying apex around May 1st so maybe they are saying it will be around 26% -> 14% (daily increases) until April 15 then 14% everyday until May 1 then slowly recede?

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3 minutes ago, freefourur said:

^ I agree. but we had been hovering at about 40% for a bit so 25% is an improvement. Although, there are a lot of caveats with these data.

 

Those rates were probably because testing just begun--whether by the state or by individual hospitals--so there were suddenly lots of cases when before there were none.

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2 new deaths in Ohio, bringing the total to 10.

 

Hospitalizations by day:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26 (+9)

3/19 - 33 (+7)

3/20 - 39 (+6)

3/21 - 58 (+19)

3/22 - 83 (+25)

3/23 - 104 (+21)

3/24 - 145 (+41)

3/25 - 182 (+37)

Edited by jam40jeff

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1 minute ago, IAGuy39 said:

^That is flattening the curve but you can probably expect it to "peak" at around 14% to 20% (5-7 Day doubling time) and run there for about 15 days then slowly recede.

 

I still get a little confused on their math saying apex around May 1st so maybe they are saying it will be around 26% -> 14% (daily increases) until April 15 then 14% everyday until May 1 then slowly recede?

 

Agree.  Does the "PEAK" mean---peak in the percentage of daily cases? or the peak number of active cases (after subtracting for fatalities and recoveries)?

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2 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

2 new deaths in Ohio, one in Cuyahoga County, bringing the total to 8.

 

Hospitalizations by day:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26 (+9)

3/19 - 33 (+7)

3/20 - 39 (+6)

3/21 - 58 (+19)

3/22 - 83 (+25)

3/23 - 104 (+21)

3/24 - 145 (+41)

3/25 - 182 (+37)

 

The 2 new fatalities are in Stark and Miami counties, not Cuyahoga.

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1 minute ago, Pugu said:

 

The 2 new fatalities are in Stark and Miami counties, not Cuyahoga.

Perhaps it both. Dr. Acton just said 10 deaths total in Ohio.

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49 minutes ago, gottaplan said:

No defense of Boeing, but curious if you had same level of disgust for the auto makers that were bailed out back in 2009.  

I don't, except for Chrysler going to an Italian owner for pennies on the dollar. Boeing though was in trouble before COVID-19.

 

300+ people were killed as a result of Boeing's 737MAX negligence, but to then reward the former CEO for what occured on his watch with millions, once he was dismissed, was a slap in the face to the passengers, families and crew members killed on those two flights. Its an example of corporate greed and a total disregard for the lives lost.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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6 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Perhaps it both. Dr. Acton just said 10 deaths total in Ohio.

 

Sorry, copy/paste error.  I have corrected it now.

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At this stage in the outbreak we should have much better, stratified data to understand the intricacies of what we are dealing with. Stop reporting confirmed cases. The people in the hospitals are the only thing that matters.

 

Before anyone freaks out, confirmed cases don’t matter because they’re a direct function of how many tests we can give out which is constantly varying. So the confirmed case number is completely useless in assessing spread.

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Just now, Clefan98 said:

At this stage in the outbreak we should have much better, stratified data to understand the intricacies of what we are dealing with. Stop reporting confirmed cases. The people in the hospitals are the only thing that matters.

 

Before anyone freaks out, confirmed cases don’t matter because they’re a direct function of how many tests we can give out which is constantly varying. So the confirmed case number is completely useless in assessing spread.

 

Correct.  That is why my data is only focused on hospitalizations.  I do think it's important to study a random sample of the population so we can estimate the actual number of infections, but we're not there yet.

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2 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

At this stage in the outbreak we should have much better, stratified data to understand the intricacies of what we are dealing with. Stop reporting confirmed cases. The people in the hospitals are the only thing that matters.

 

Before anyone freaks out, confirmed cases don’t matter because they’re a direct function of how many tests we can give out which is constantly varying. So the confirmed case number is completely useless in assessing spread.

Correct. These are the caveats that I referred to.

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