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Coronavirus Pandemic

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FWIW - The National Guard IS stationed in Elyria and Medina right now... but from what I'm hearing, that's to assist with logistics of necessities if needed

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Still no toilet paper or anything that would be germ killing at Kroger but at least I got my ramen noodles finally!

 

Also...I was waiting in the u-scan line when I guy left and I went to the empty spot...and there was his big list of groceries and total on the screen...he had simply bagged up all of his stuff and left without paying. I was unable to stop his stealing a%%-he was already out the door. Also noticed some people complaining loudly about this and that. Most people really nice, but the stress seems to be getting to some people.

 

*Also had a VERY early dr. appt so I was on the road at 5:15 am-and was almost washed off the damn road in the storms. On the way and on the way back, there was no real rush hour-it was just the ghost of a rush hour-very strange and unsettling. 

Edited by Toddguy

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1 hour ago, gottaplan said:

Im hearing now that Ohio is going to shut down pretty much everything, essential work/essential travel only.  Will shut down all other businesses, construction sites, etc.  Pennsylvania has done the same and other east coast/west coast cities.

 

Someone please tell me which was is up.  

 

New York (the state I am in) just ordered businesses to reduce their on-site workforce by 100% except for places that are designated essential.

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Can someone (maybe a mod?) create a "political aspects of the coronavirus pandemic" thread so this one will not get shut down and the political bickering can go on somewhere else?

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9 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

Can someone (maybe a mod?) create a "political aspects of the coronavirus pandemic" thread so this one will not get shut down and the political bickering can go on somewhere else?

 

There are plenty of other threads for political bickering already.  People can keep this discussion to the coronavirus pandemic, or they will be getting time off.  Think before you post, please.

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2 minutes ago, freefourur said:

 

 

 

Almost 6,000 new cases too.  The lockdown better have an effect soon or we're in big trouble (and it will drastically undermine the reality that China is selling about its own efforts).

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1 hour ago, Toddguy said:

If people cannot follow simple instructions like this then please consider just banning the perps from the thread rather than closing the thread. Thanks.

 

Just want to echo this. This thread will be a valuable resource for many of us during crazy times. Thanks

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7 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Almost 6,000 new cases too.  The lockdown better have an effect soon or we're in big trouble (and it will drastically undermine the reality that China is selling about its own efforts).

Seriously! That is pretty frightening given that they have been in lockdown for a significant amount of time.

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7 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Almost 6,000 new cases too.  The lockdown better have an effect soon or we're in big trouble (and it will drastically undermine the reality that China is selling about its own efforts).

 

What do you mean about China ? Is there suspicion they are lying about their success containing this?

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2 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

What do you mean about China ? Is there suspicion they are lying about their success containing this?

I think any information from China should be met with suspicion. 

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1 minute ago, mu2010 said:

 

What do you mean about China ? Is there suspicion they are lying about their success containing this?

 

I'm not sure who actually takes China's numbers at face value.  Hong Kong reported 48 new cases yesterday, with about 2/3rds from travelers arriving into the city, but the rest through community spread.  It betrays all logic to think that Hong Kong all by itself is seeing that while the rest of China combined has seen 0 new cases in 2 days.  It's just not believable.

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^Also China has kicked out the last of the major newspaper journalists in the last 5 days.  They don’t want them snooping and reporting other than what the Chinese government says is happening. 

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Questions Regarding quarantine numbers:


Maybe I am off on this but whenever Italy started their lockdown you probably need to add 14 days which is asymptomatic spread so the numbers will probably rise until the 14th day then plateau.

 

Also, it may be longer than that because of testing issues, so they maybe had to catch up too.

 

Does anyone know when they started the lockdown? Edit: Looks like March 9th, so you can maybe reasonably expect the numbers to continue to rise daily until the 23rd of March then plateau.

 

The number of deaths will keep rising past that maybe another 14 days then plateau, since deaths lag confirmed cases. Though with Italy's issues of being overrun, the deaths may lag only 7 days (as a guess) vs normal 14 days since these people won't be able to get treated. So, I would expect Italy death numbers to rise on day to day basis until around March 30th then plateau. 

 

Also, agree on China...

Edited by IAGuy39

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1 minute ago, IAGuy39 said:

Questions Regarding quarantine numbers:


Maybe I am off on this but whenever Italy started their lockdown you probably need to add 14 days which is asymptomatic spread so the numbers will probably rise until the 14th day then plateau.

 

Also, it may be longer than that because of testing issues, so they maybe had to catch up too.

 

Does anyone know when they started the lockdown?

i know it took place in two phases. first phase was lockdown in northern part of the country. then it was nation wide.

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2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Most people really nice, but the stress seems to be getting to some people.

 

I think most people understand the seriousness of the situation and didn't have problems when the closures and other restrictions went into effect. However, more people are going to panic as they start to realize that the closures, social distancing, working from home, and potentially more strict lockdowns will need to be in place for much longer in order to be effective. I am starting to see a lot of hot takes from conservatives/libertarians staying that "we need to end the closures in 2 weeks so that the economy can go back to normal". I don't think there's any chance of that happening, and if it does, the virus is going to spread just like we didn't have closures in the first place.

 

We May Be In This for the Long Haul…

 

Quote

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population — which could be 18 months or more.

 

Coronavirus will radically alter the U.S.

 

Quote

Only by enacting an entire series of drastic, severe restrictions could America shrink its death toll further, the study found. That strategy would require, at a minimum, the nationwide practice of social distancing, home isolation, and school and university closures. And such restrictions would have to be maintained, at least intermittently, until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.

 

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1 minute ago, IAGuy39 said:

Questions Regarding quarantine numbers:


Maybe I am off on this but whenever Italy started their lockdown you probably need to add 14 days which is asymptomatic spread so the numbers will probably rise until the 14th day then plateau.

 

Also, it may be longer than that because of testing issues, so they maybe had to catch up too.

 

Does anyone know when they started the lockdown?

 

The Lombardy region entered lockdown on the 8th, and the rest of Italy followed on the 9th, so today is the 11th day.  

 

And as I mentioned before, they are still having trouble actually keeping people in their homes.  Tons of people are still violating it.

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3 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The Lombardy region entered lockdown on the 8th, and the rest of Italy followed on the 9th, so today is the 11th day.  

 

And as I mentioned before, they are still having trouble actually keeping people in their homes.  Tons of people are still violating it.

even without 100% compliance, I'd expect the new cases to slow down. But maybe we need to wait and see beyond 14 days.

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For comparison, China began locking down Wuhan and Hubei province on January 23rd and then gradually expanded the scope and range to include more people and areas.  If you believe their numbers, there were 2 new case peaks- one on February 4th and another on February 12th when they changed the testing.  So if we take the 4th as gospel, that would've been a peak 12 days after lockdown began, or 20 days if you go by the somewhat more artificial peak on the 12th.  So if Italy followed the same trajectory, the numbers should peak between tomorrow and the 29th, with deaths peaking around the same time into early April due to lag time.

It should be remembered that China's lockdown is/was supposedly far stricter than what Italy or any other country currently has.

Edited by jonoh81

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15 minutes ago, freefourur said:

even without 100% compliance, I'd expect the new cases to slow down. But maybe we need to wait and see beyond 14 days.

 

Yeah, seems like the discussion doesn't have much point until the 2 weeks have passed. 

 

I read 43,000 people have been caught violating the lockdown. In a country of 60 million. Say only 10% were caught. That's about half a million out of 60 million people. The lockdown should substantially impact transmission even without full compliance.

Edited by mu2010

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9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

For comparison, China began locking down Wuhan and Hubei province on January 23rd and then gradually expanded the scope and range to include more people and areas.  If you believe their numbers, there were 2 new case peaks- one on February 4th and another on February 12th when they changed the testing.  So if we take the 4th as gospel, that would've been a peak 12 days after lockdown began, or 20 days if you go by the somewhat more artificial peak on the 12th.  So if Italy followed the same trajectory, the numbers should peak between tomorrow and the 29th, with deaths peaking around the same time into early April due to lag time.

It should be remembered that China's lockdown is/was supposedly far stricter than what Italy or any other country currently has.

 

Yes the Italy one would probably be further lag time as far as new cases than China. In China they were literally locking people in their own homes.

 

Also Italy may have higher death rates than the USA will because their hospitals were so overwhelmed. I expect the USA as a percentage terms will have a lower "peak" than Italy, but the numbers will be much higher. I also expect the USA to have some really bad areas of infection like we are starting to see in NYC already.

 

To think, Italy (116,000 sq miles with 60 million people) is basically the size of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana combined (122,000 sq miles with 23 million people)

 

The Bos-Wash Corridor maybe is a good comparison to Italy itself though I don't know the exact stats on Bos-Wash Corridor

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Just now, IAGuy39 said:

To think, Italy (116,000 sq miles with 60 million people) is basically the size of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana combined (122,000 sq miles with 23 million people)

 

The Bos-Wash Corridor maybe is a good comparison to Italy itself though I don't know the exact stats on Bos-Wash Corridor

 

Actually California is about the best comparison. Similar size, population, and even climate.

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4 minutes ago, BelievelandD1 said:

Dark and Stormy, thanks for all the updates.  You are doing a great job covering this and consolidating information into a single UO thread.

 

You're welcome.  h/t to @freefourur for the daily tracking idea.


Very Stable Genius

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Hospitalizations by day:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26

3/19 - 33

3/20 - 39

 

Hopefully this trend keeps up, which would indicate the lockdown is having the desired effect.  (Also, I am assuming that these are cumulative as people likely have to been released yet, but obviously at some point it'll be harder to know how many are new hospitalizations.)

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4 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

Hospitalizations by day:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26

3/19 - 33

3/20 - 39

 

Hopefully this trend keeps up, which would indicate the lockdown is having the desired effect.  (Also, I am assuming that these are cumulative as people likely have to been released yet, but obviously at some point it'll be harder to know how many are new hospitalizations.)

 

Ohio has no recoveries to this point, so all 39 are still hospitalized.

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9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Ohio has no recoveries to this point, so all 39 are still hospitalized.

 

I am unsure what constitutes a recovery.  How are people counted that never were hospitalized?

 

Regardless, assuming that nobody has been sent home from the hospital yet, that means that the new hospitalizations per day is steady (or actually decreasing slightly) even while the number of cases is growing exponentially, which seems to indicate that the growth of new cases is driven primarily by the expansion of testing.

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8 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

 

I am unsure what constitutes a recovery.  How are people counted that never were hospitalized?

 

Regardless, assuming that nobody has been sent home from the hospital yet, that means that the new hospitalizations per day is steady (or actually decreasing slightly) even while the number of cases is growing exponentially, which seems to indicate that the growth of new cases is driven primarily by the expansion of testing.

 

We're really only talking about confirmed cases.  Hospitalization is only occurring in the more moderate to severe cases, and I assume that most, if not all, of those are being or will eventually be tested.  

I tend to think that confirmed cases are growing because of increased testing, but there's almost definitely still widespread expansion of those infected.

As for what recovery means, it seems to be defined as when someone is no longer symptomatic and/or also no longer contagious.

Edited by jonoh81

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https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-governor-says-hes-being-outbid-federal-government-coronavirus-supplies-despite-1493332

 

Quote

During a conference call between state officials and President Donald Trump on Thursday, Massachusetts Republican Governor Charlie Baker said the state had been outbid by the federal government while attempting to purchase personal protective equipment (PPE) during the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Trump said at a coronavirus task force press briefing on Monday that state governments should attempt to purchase PPE such as face masks, respirators and ventilators "on their own" if it means they can receive the equipment faster.

 


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

image.png.7cdffbe42fe65e55f86b2474f8596c87.png

 

We are accelerating at a faster pace than Italy now.

 

In number of cases, yes.  But in deaths, the US has had 1/4 as many as of March 19 as Italy had on March 11 (207 vs 824).  This is probably partially due to them having many more infections than they knew about, and partially due to the makeup of their populace.

Edited by jam40jeff

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2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

I tend to think that confirmed cases are growing because of increased testing, but there's almost definitely still widespread expansion of those infected.

As for what recovery means, it seems to be defined as when someone is no longer symptomatic and/or also no longer contagious.

 

There's definitely still expansion of infections, but I wonder if it's becoming more linear instead of exponential.  The number of hospitalizations would be an important metric of that (assuming they don't change the criteria to be admitted).

 

Some people, like the woman from Hudson I saw an article about, are sent home to self-quarantine if their symptoms are not severe.  When will the state consider these patients recovered?  Do they continue testing them?  I don't believe they even have a solid grip on when a person is no longer contagious.  Tests may detect the presence of RNA of the virus even after it is dead and no longer active, however I believe we are not releasing patients until they get two negative tests.  For instance, Carl Goldman, who has a blog about his quarantine, was released two days ago after 42 days of quarantine even though he had no symptoms for a couple weeks.  I am glad we are being safe, but do these people really need to be taking up hospital rooms if we run into a shortage?  Also, this means that the Recovery statistic will linger far behind the others.

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1 hour ago, jam40jeff said:

 

In number of cases, yes.  But in deaths, the US has had 1/4 as many as of March 19 as Italy had on March 11 (207 vs 824).  This is probably partially due to them having many more infections than they knew about, and partially due to the makeup of their populace.

 

I'm wondering why we have not yet been overrun in our hospitals. Even by day 18, Italy's medical systems were failing from the surge, and while there is an uptick in hospital visits here with COVID, it's not yet been overrun. We are still nowhere near peak so I wonder if the worst is yet to come, or if our cases are more mild or less severe because of other factors.

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Article from Ars Technica on the expansion of testing in the U.S.

 

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/america-is-finally-testing-for-coronavirus-in-significant-volumes/?comments=1

 

Quote

America is finally testing for coronavirus in significant volumes

Testing in the US has soared to 100,000 tests, but shortages remain an issue.

TIMOTHY B. LEE - 3/20/2020, 4:34 PM

 

America is finally starting to test for the coronavirus in significant volumes. On Thursday, the total number of coronavirus tests conducted in America topped 100,000, according to the COVID tracking project. That's a 10-fold increase from a week earlier. In the coming days, we can expect the pace of testing to continue increasing as more and more organizations—both academic labs and for-profit companies—ramp up testing efforts.

 

This is important because America has a lot of catching up to do. A series of early missteps at the federal level hampered America's testing efforts in the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis. It wasn't until the end of February that the Food and Drug Administration opened the door for a wide range of organizations to offer coronavirus tests.

 

In the last week, we've started to see the results of that change. Private companies are starting to ship hundreds of thousands of test kits. Drive-through testing stations are sprouting up all over America.

But the explosion of new testing efforts will create challenges of its own. Josh Sharfstein, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, argues that coordination will be increasingly important as the volume of testing increases. A Thursday story in The Wall Street Journal painted a picture of chaos as patients struggled to get tested—even after they've gotten a referral from a doctor to get a test. Some drive-through testing facilities have had long lines and unpredictable hours, the Journal reports.

...

 

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53 minutes ago, seicer said:

I'm wondering why we have not yet been overrun in our hospitals. Even by day 18, Italy's medical systems were failing from the surge, and while there is an uptick in hospital visits here with COVID, it's not yet been overrun. We are still nowhere near peak so I wonder if the worst is yet to come, or if our cases are more mild or less severe because of other factors.

 

Our population is 5x that of Italy's and also younger on average.  Not sure comparing hospital overrun is really fair.


Very Stable Genius

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