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Coronavirus Pandemic

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19 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Trump 3 days ago: this is a war, I'm a war president

Trump Today: this is too hard.  Let's quit.

 

Edit - no politics

Edited by mu2010

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As I sit on my balcony, having hot tea to ease a scratchy throat/post nasal drip/congestion (possible COVID-19 infection), I look 180 degrees around Miami and count 14 cranes in full operation, swinging back and forth with their loads . All cruise ships are moored at Port Miami. While the Metromover is operational, there are no riders. The streets, avenues and highways are empty. The one bright spot through all of this pandomonium is that construction appears to still be booming.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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10 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

As I sit on my balcony, having hot tea to ease a scratchy throat/post nasal drip/congestion (possible COVID-19 infection)

 

I'm getting over something too. I had a very mild dry cough from maybe about the 11th or 12th, combined with a bit of headaches and light congestion and sore throat... On and off, not continuous. Other than a trip to the grocery store, I've self isolated since the 13th. Took my temp every day and no fevers. Seems about cleared up now as of the past two days. I might have had it.

Edited by mu2010

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Btw, based on what we know in Ohio (442 positives, but probably many more undiagnosed), the hospitalization rate is 23.5% so far.  Again, the # of actual positives out there is much higher so we don't really know for sure what the true hospitalization rate is here.


Very Stable Genius

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1 minute ago, jmecklenborg said:

I just heard that Pure Romance has applied for a medical exemption to stay open. 

 

Freakin MLMs. 

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18 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

I'm getting over something too. I had a very mild dry cough from maybe about the 11th or 12th, combined with a bit of headaches and light congestion and sore throat... On and off, not continuous. Other than a trip to the grocery store, I've self isolated since the 13th. Took my temp every day and no fevers. Seems about cleared up now as of the past two days. I might have had it.

As discussed, not everyone has significant morbidity or mortality; some confirmed cases have had mild-to-moderate symptoms leading to unrecognized community spread and the importance of physical distancing and personal hygiene.

 

Now that we appear to be overcoming the molecular testing hurdle, this also emphasizes the need for the development of COVID-19 serology testing capabilities now. Serology or antibody tests will enable us to identify anyone who has developed COVID-19 antibodies due to exposure and resolved infection. The numbers may surprise us.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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1 hour ago, Frmr CLEder said:

Now that we appear to be overcoming the molecular testing hurdle, this also emphasizes the need for the development of COVID-19 serology testing capabilities now. Serology or antibody tests will enable us to identify anyone who has developed COVID-19 antibodies due to exposure and resolved infection. The numbers may surprise us.

 

I've been banging this drum like ERocc on a suburbs kick, but how are we going to make informed decisions on when it is safe to reopen business without knowing what percentage of the population has already been exposed and what the real mortality rate is?  We need to both be testing people for antibodies and testing random samples of the population to get an idea of what percentage of the population has the virus and what the actual hospitalization and death rates are.

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Welcomed news indeed!

 

From the Center for Cleveland (https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

 

"SOME GOOD NEWS! One day does not make a trend. That said, there is some positive news. While the numbers of COVID-19 cases increased between yesterday and today in the US, in Ohio, in Metropolitan Cleveland, and in Cuyahoga County, the rate of increase has decreased when compared to the increase from two days ago to yesterday. The number of cases continues to climb, but some slowing is emerging likely thanks to social distancing, increased awareness, and the fewer opportunities for community spread due to cancelled events and closed restaurants, schools, and other venues. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend and not a one-day data aberration. But not all parts of the US are the same, as cases continue to surge in NYC, for example, where a shelter in place went into effect last night at 8pm. But for Ohio communities, this is very welcomed positive news."

 

1154672105_fromcfc.thumb.png.2484481460de27426f4c666801d8da8d.png

Edited by Pugu

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9 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

Welcomed news indeed!

 

From the Center for Cleveland (https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

 

"SOME GOOD NEWS! One day does not make a trend. That said, there is some positive news. While the numbers of COVID-19 cases increased between yesterday and today in the US, in Ohio, in Metropolitan Cleveland, and in Cuyahoga County, the rate of increase has decreased when compared to the increase from two days ago to yesterday. The number of cases continues to climb, but some slowing is emerging likely thanks to social distancing, increased awareness, and the fewer opportunities for community spread due to cancelled events and closed restaurants, schools, and other venues. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend and not a one-day data aberration. But not all parts of the US are the same, as cases continue to surge in NYC, for example, where a shelter in place went into effect last night at 8pm. But for Ohio communities, this is very welcomed positive news."

 

1154672105_fromcfc.thumb.png.2484481460de27426f4c666801d8da8d.png

 

That's very good news, but the data is only as good as the testing.  And, almost nobody is being tested right now.  The only people being tested around Cleveland are those admitted to hospitals (so serious cases) and healthcare workers.  Everyone else is being given a probable diagnoses and being told to rest and self-quarantine.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, gg707 said:

 

That's very good news, but the data is only as good as the testing.  And, almost nobody is being tested right now.  The only people being tested around Cleveland are those admitted to hospitals (so serious cases) and healthcare workers.  Everyone else is being given a probable diagnoses and being told to rest and self-quarantine.

 

Yes, but are LESS people being tested from 3/22 to 3/23 than were tested from 3/21 to 3/22?  If so, then that might explain the dip.  If not it means the growth is slowing down. I would think more and more are being tested each day.

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Correct me if i am wrong...

 

The dems keep shutting down this stimulus bill because they want the money to go to actual people instead of corporations.  Team Trumpers keep complaining about the Dems rejecting the plan.  Unless Trumps army in the rural areas of the country are all CEO's of Fortune 500, WOULDNT THE DEMS OBJECTIONS SPECIFICALLY HELP THESE PEOPLE OUT???? Geez.  What on earth.

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3 minutes ago, BelievelandD1 said:

Correct me if i am wrong...

 

The dems keep shutting down this stimulus bill because they want the money to go to actual people instead of corporations.  Team Trumpers keep complaining about the Dems rejecting the plan.  Unless Trumps army in the rural areas of the country are all CEO's of Fortune 500, WOULDNT THE DEMS OBJECTIONS SPECIFICALLY HELP THESE PEOPLE OUT???? Geez.  What on earth.

 

But muh judges....

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9 minutes ago, BelievelandD1 said:

Correct me if i am wrong...

 

The dems keep shutting down this stimulus bill because they want the money to go to actual people instead of corporations.  Team Trumpers keep complaining about the Dems rejecting the plan.  Unless Trumps army in the rural areas of the country are all CEO's of Fortune 500, WOULDNT THE DEMS OBJECTIONS SPECIFICALLY HELP THESE PEOPLE OUT???? Geez.  What on earth.

The democrats, amongst other things, are fighting to ensure the same thing doesn't happen as during the last bailout and that the emphasis is on the worker vs the corporations and wealthy; corporations don't use bailout for stock buybacks (UAL, AA, DL, Trump Corp.), CEOs/officers arent allowed multi-million dollar bonuses (Boeing), no blank checks to Trump buddies (Mnuchin), etc. 

 

Unfortunately his supporters don't get it. He appoints a few conservative judges, claims America first and they pledge blind loyalty, while he's ensuring his own continued wealth and that of his wealthy supporters; not his average supporter.

 

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24 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

Yes, but are LESS people being tested from 3/22 to 3/23 than were tested from 3/21 to 3/22?  If so, then that might explain the dip.  If not it means the growth is slowing down. I would think more and more are being tested each day.

 

I don't know the answer to that question.  It is possible the number being tested is small enough that random variances in population for that day can throw off the rates of positives easily. 

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I assumed there probably were a bit less people tested to have the new lower number.  I’d be ok with this showing that its the start of leveling off.  If i’m correct it will be a bit higher tomorrow but less than Sunday. 

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1 hour ago, Pugu said:

 

Yes, but are LESS people being tested from 3/22 to 3/23 than were tested from 3/21 to 3/22?  If so, then that might explain the dip.  If not it means the growth is slowing down. I would think more and more are being tested each day.

I wouldn't make that assumption.

It depends upon where tests are being conducted. This is state data. Fewer tests conducted could be based upon other factors, like a shortage of testing supplies.

 

Based upon confirmed cases however, NEO has been the hotspot of OH.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Hey, I have a reliable source for the rumor I heard:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/23/huge-testing-discrepancies-among-states-muddles-meaning-results/

Ohio has not been reporting negative test result numbers for over a week.  So we don't know if they're not testing, or it's really levelling off.

 

WTF?????    That's twice now they have ignored very basic statistical principles.   IMO, that wrecks their credibility.

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47 minutes ago, gg707 said:

 

I don't know the answer to that question.  It is possible the number being tested is small enough that random variances in population for that day can throw off the rates of positives easily. 

 

Yeah there's not enough natural smoothing at the single-state observation level for day-by-day results to tell us what we really want to know yet.

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Just now, DarkandStormy said:

Why is AG Barr at this presser and not Dr. Fauci?

 

Because these daily briefings have become nothing more than Trump rallies for those in his administration to kiss his ring.  Fauci was actively contradicting Trump at times, and there's no having that.

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Slap of the wrist for the comments he made about correcting Trump? Or they are getting ready to push him out.

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42 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Because these daily briefings have become nothing more than Trump rallies for those in his administration to kiss his ring.  Fauci was actively contradicting Trump at times, and there's no having that.

Tony Fauci, MD, the only one I listen to on the dais, has contradicted IMPOTUS and garners significantly more respect. Dr. Fauci was also caught on camera holding in a laugh and shaking his head at the nonsense.

 

BTW,

IMPOTUS should stick to the script. Remdesivir is not manufactured by Regeneron. Its manufacturer is Gilead Sciences.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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My wife works for Instacart. She is BUSY!

 

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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This is very good site aggregating information around Covid-19 and Cleveland---where to get tested, which bus routes aren't running, what time city hall is open, where to get school meals, and bunch of other stuff. There's a very interesting section on loss of smell as an earlier indicator of the disease. They apparently update it each day.

 

https://www.centerforcleveland.org/covid-19

 

 

 

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Damn....

 

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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The Rio favelas have always been dangerous, but the last thing we need is anyone to get the idea that violence or that roaming gangs are a solution.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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22 minutes ago, KJP said:

Damn....

 

 


Definitely the first, probably the last time I’ll say I’m a fan of organized crime

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19 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

The Rio favelas have always been dangerous, but the last thing we need is anyone to get the idea that violence or that roaming gangs are a solution.

 

I've been to a couple.  They aren't all bad.  Just like urban neighborhoods here....know where you should and shouldn't be.  If you ever go to Rio I recommend taking a tour.  It's fascinating.  

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9 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

I've been to a couple.  They aren't all bad.  Just like urban neighborhoods here....know where you should and shouldn't be.  If you ever go to Rio I recommend taking a tour.  It's fascinating.  

Been to Rio, Sao Paulo, Bahia a few times during Carnivale, but avoided the favelas.

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Just now, Frmr CLEder said:

Been to Rio, Sao Paulo, Bahia a few times during Carnivale, but avoided the favelas.

There are organized tours if you hunt around.   I think one of them we did was in a Favela just to the south of Ipanema called Rocina.  It was an amazing experience.  I should post pictures on an appropriate thread.  

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it's crazy to me how political this thread is....  it's a global virus pandemic...  not an election thread.  

 

And on that note, someone commented that "alot of republicans or libertarians" are questioning the economic impact over the death rate.   Yes, alot of people are questioning it but not any political class...

 

Ohio has 6 deaths thus far... and we have historic unemployment claims last week.  Almost 140k.  And this week will be worse.  If the shutdown lasts two weeks, Ohio will hit 500k of new unemployment filings.  These are bar/restaurant workers, retail workers, truck drivers, construction workers, car salesmen, etc etc.  It's not political to question if the means justify the ends of what's going on right now.  People's lives are being totally upended, in a BAD way.    Folks will be angry & desperate real soon.  Folks who previously weren't political at ALL will become political when they have nothing to do but sit at home and be angry.

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"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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On 3/21/2020 at 11:49 AM, KJP said:

Forgive my morbidity, but the discussion I read was that, at least in the USA's case, the best measuring stick of whether we're getting on top of this is the number of people dying from it. If that number starts to level off (and fall in the coming weeks or so), then we'll know if we're making progress.

An interesting perspective because the number of mortalities is currently the only "real" number and could therefore be the best indicator of real progress.

 

Testing is sporadic and not everyone who is infected is actually being tested. Only those meeting specific criteria and those who are connected are being tested, so many infections are undetected and unconfirmed.

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5 hours ago, gottaplan said:

it's crazy to me how political this thread is....  it's a global virus pandemic...  not an election thread.  

 

And on that note, someone commented that "alot of republicans or libertarians" are questioning the economic impact over the death rate.   Yes, alot of people are questioning it but not any political class...

 

Ohio has 6 deaths thus far... and we have historic unemployment claims last week.  Almost 140k.  And this week will be worse.  If the shutdown lasts two weeks, Ohio will hit 500k of new unemployment filings.  These are bar/restaurant workers, retail workers, truck drivers, construction workers, car salesmen, etc etc.  It's not political to question if the means justify the ends of what's going on right now.  People's lives are being totally upended, in a BAD way.    Folks will be angry & desperate real soon.  Folks who previously weren't political at ALL will become political when they have nothing to do but sit at home and be angry.

If we do not slow down this pandemic then there will be many people who not only will have lost their jobs, but lost their lives as well. If the health care system collapses, that will impact everyone who will need to use it-including anyone who has a traffic accident, heart attack, or any other major issue. People will die not just from the coronavirus, but because they will not be able to get the quality of care(or care at all)that we expect when we get injured or ill. 

 

I think when more people get infected, when they see that even the "mild to moderate" symptoms that will not be able to be treated at all will for many prove to be the worst illness they have ever had, they will come around. Mild and moderate in this case often means just not needed to be in a hospital-it does not mean nearly asymptomatic. When people start knowing people who have died or are suffering, when they lose relatives, friends, coworkers, neighbors, etc. then I think it will sink in that we are dealing with something that we have not dealt with in over 100 years. 

 

At the way it is going and if it is as bad as it seems it will be, it will be kind of like war really. Especially if we cannot 'flatten the curve".  And the government needs to respond to it as if it is a war, and that includes providing measures to ease economic hardships-they just don't have the will to do it at this point, particularly at the national level.

 

There are so many people-including younger people-who have "pre-existing conditions" that may lead to a severe case:

 

Heart disease

cancer(including that in children)

weak immune system

diabetes

high blood pressure

HIV

body mass index over 40

smokers or ex-smokers(around 30 million smokers, many other ex-smokers

conditions that they do not even know or are aware of.

 

Also a slew of other issues and diseases. 

 

Think how many Americans have one or more of these listed above.

 

Zimbabwe just had their first death-a well known tv broadcaster and producer who was in seemingly good health, living a good life, only 30 years old. 

But he had Myasthenia Gravis. So he died. At 30. Because he had an underlying condition. Maybe if he did not get if now, but got it in a few months, there might be a treatment found that could have at least done enough to save his life.

 

Our society should be judged on how it treats it's weakest members, and choosing economic hardship(which can be alleviated somewhat by the right government response)should not come before life itself.  

 

We will get by no matter what-we have gotten through a depression before, and we will again if need be. And I believe on is coming regardless of what we do at this point. But afterwards, as a society, I just hope we don't recover with the blood of those who were sacrificed on our hands. 

 

Quote

Folks will be angry & desperate real soon.

I think they will likely be terrified and desperate as this thing spreads to way more people and people see people just like them-including some younger healthy folks as well-dying from this or being on ventilators(if there are any available). 

Edited by Toddguy

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I certainly hope that Spain has passed the peak of the curve even for an unprepared nation that was hit hard and early by the virus, because this is not the kind of thing that should happen in a developed country:

 

Madrid to Use Ice Rink as Morgue for Coronavirus Victims

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/23/world/asia/23reuters-health-coronavirus-spain-morgue.html

 

MADRID — A Madrid ice rink is to be used as a makeshift morgue for coronavirus victims, as the number of cases in the capital rose to 10,575 and 1,263 deaths, city authorities said on Monday.

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1 hour ago, Frmr CLEder said:

An interesting perspective because the number of mortalities is currently the only "real" number and could therefore be the best indicator of real progress.

 

Testing is sporadic and not everyone who is infected is actually being tested. Only those meeting specific criteria and those who are connected are being tested, so many infections are undetected and unconfirmed.

the only data we can really look at for mortality is in China, because over 90% of their cases are resolved, roughly 80,000 cases, more than 70,000 recovered, 

with about 5,000 active cases and nearly 3,300 deaths. They are the only nation which has more than half of the cases resolved(recovered or died). The rest have to work their way along. 

 

We are going to have to wait until an open society actually goes through this to see mortality rates(at least related to those who are known to be infected, which I am sure will not include everyone). I don't trust China to give accurate info regarding mortality.

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2 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

I certainly hope that Spain has passed the peak of the curve even for an unprepared nation that was hit hard and early by the virus, because this is not the kind of thing that should happen in a developed country:

 

Madrid to Use Ice Rink as Morgue for Coronavirus Victims

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/23/world/asia/23reuters-health-coronavirus-spain-morgue.html

 

MADRID — A Madrid ice rink is to be used as a makeshift morgue for coronavirus victims, as the number of cases in the capital rose to 10,575 and 1,263 deaths, city authorities said on Monday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

 

some graph info.

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2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

If we do not slow down this pandemic then there will be many people who not only will have lost their jobs, but lost their lives as well. If the health care system collapses, that will impact everyone who will need to use it-including anyone who has a traffic accident, heart attack, or any other major issue. People will die not just from the coronavirus, but because they will not be able to get the quality of care(or care at all)that we expect when we get injured or ill. 

 

 

To be clear, I'm not arguing that the restrictions in place are unwarranted.  My point is that it's silly to try and classify anyone as "R" or D or L because of there response to the restrictions is silly.  The group of impacted people is just far too large.  And people are going to become desperate.

 

And for what it's worth, people DIE because of economic crisis too.  They become jobless, homeless.... they don't eat, they don't take essential medicines... they consume alcohol or drugs that they normally wouldn't....   so there are health impacts of the economic crisis that will be coming forward also.

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7 hours ago, gottaplan said:

it's crazy to me how political this thread is....  it's a global virus pandemic...  not an election thread.  

 

And on that note, someone commented that "alot of republicans or libertarians" are questioning the economic impact over the death rate.   Yes, alot of people are questioning it but not any political class...


Studies have been out for weeks that show liberals are taking this pandemic more seriously - as much as 2x more seriously - than conservatives.


Very Stable Genius

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2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

the only data we can really look at for mortality is in China, because over 90% of their cases are resolved, roughly 80,000 cases, more than 70,000 recovered, 

with about 5,000 active cases and nearly 3,300 deaths. They are the only nation which has more than half of the cases resolved(recovered or died). The rest have to work their way along. 

 

We are going to have to wait until an open society actually goes through this to see mortality rates(at least related to those who are known to be infected, which I am sure will not include everyone). I don't trust China to give accurate info regarding mortality.

Do you mean morbidity? Mortality is pretty cut and dry; it is what it is.  Now relationship of mortality to infected is a different story because we only have numbers for confirmed cases and number tested. We don't know those who are infected but unconfirmed. This takes us back to what I mentioned upthread about the need for serology testing. It will indicate the number of people exposed, with resolved infections and possible immunity.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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7 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

Sounds like Trump is backtracking on the need to maintain the national emergency due to the economic impact.

He doesn't have the attention span needed to see this through. He doesn't actually have any authority to "open the economy" up since he didn't close anything in the first place.  

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