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Coronavirus Pandemic

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^Scary. If they are seeing that in Ohio, for sure it is happening throughout the South with all the doctors that were happy to over-prescribe opioids. 

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2 hours ago, jam40jeff said:

The way it is working now, it is like the worst of socialism combined with the worst of capitalism.

 

I was told that socialism is bad because it requires goods to be rationed, and yet we have had a 2 week toilet paper shortage because our capitalist supply chain can't figure out how to produce enough supply to meet demand...

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It's artificial demand. Try finding eggs, milk, bacon, hot dogs or even canned tuna fish at any of the busier super markets.  Its impossible.

 

People are hoarding in anticipation of an apocalypse.

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11 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

It's artificial demand. Try finding eggs, milk, bacon, hot dogs or even canned tuna fish at any of the busier super markets.  Its impossible.

 

People are hoarding in anticipation of an apocalypse.

 

Thankfully, I live near a grocery store that has kept bread, meat, eggs, bacon, chicken, ham, milk etc on the shelves. The anticipation of a weeks-long shutdown. I've tried to keep a 2-week supply going just in case.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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^ Downtown Heinen’s has been pretty reliable so far, bar TP (of course). I’m figuring that the prospect of having to pay for parking will keep the newly-minted suburbanite preppers away!


And they reckon that the last thing she saw in her life was
Sting, singing on the roof of the Barbican

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15 hours ago, Frmr CLEder said:

He is partially correct. 

 

Everyone will either:

- Contract the virus and acquire immunity as a result

- Acquire immunity through vaccination, once available

- Succumb to the infection

- Never become infected because they've been fortunate enough to avoid exposure. This occurs via isolation and/or when most of the population has acquired immunity

 

For now, only those with resolved infections have immunity. Anyone who has not been exposed to the virus is vulnerable and will remain vulnerable until one of the above scenarios occurs.

 

Do we actually know that they have immunity?  I recall reading that not all coronaviruses provide subsequent immunity.  Have there been any studies on this yet?

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2 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Do we actually know that they have immunity?  I recall reading that not all coronaviruses provide subsequent immunity.  Have there been any studies on this yet?

We don't really know for certain. It's new. Exposure "should" confer immunity,  however the virus could mutate as it moves through the population and as it is treated with antiviral medications. It's related to the common cold, so there are a lot of unknowns.

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2 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

We're so bad at this.

We were behind the 8-ball in testing. Canada immediately recognized the threat and PAAB (Health Canada - similar to FDA) took immediate action.

 

A Seattle research physician, Dr. Chu, developed an illegal test that identified infection in January. She was greeted with red tape, denials and inaction when she raised red flags.

 

Her story below is absolutely chilling.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Do we actually know that they have immunity?  I recall reading that not all coronaviruses provide subsequent immunity.  Have there been any studies on this yet?

 

Very interesting article. The answer to the above questions is "maybe" and "no"....

 

Do You Get Immunity After Recovering From A Case Of Coronavirus?

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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I think it will be hard to KNOW anything for several weeks if then. The Feds/cdc are unfocused due to crisis mismanagement. It is hard to trust whatever the Chinese put out.  We could probably get good info from Japan and South Korea. That research then needs to go through normal vetting. 
    I’m most curious about the various strains and where they are and if it is the case that some are much more dangerous than others.  Also I’m curious about both Germany and Thailand having low amount of deaths. 

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27 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Very interesting article. The answer to the above questions is "maybe" and "no"....

 

Do You Get Immunity After Recovering From A Case Of Coronavirus?

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus

Another challenge is that currently there are no serologic assays to test for viral antibodies. These tests would identify patients who have been exposed to the virus, developed antibodies to it and theoretically have immunity.

 

The tests that are available are molecular assays that test for viral antigen or "active infection."

 

We were ill prepared and by the time the seriousness of the issue was accepted, community spread had already taken place.

 

A 33% loss of S&P value in two weeks gets people's attention, fast.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Implementing each of the three solutions/outcomes are likely necessary. But at some point, we're going to need to bring back the economy because keeping it shut off for so long is going to cause more health related hardships than the disease itself....

 

Coronavirus: When will the outbreak end and life get back to normal?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51963486

 

 

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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3 minutes ago, KJP said:

Implementing each of the three solutions/outcomes are likely necessary. But at some point, we're going to need to bring back the economy because keeping it shut off for so long is going to cause more health related hardships than the disease itself....

 

Coronavirus: When will the outbreak end and life get back to normal?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51963486

 

 

 

 

Bret Stephens wrote about this the other day. I think it's a big concern.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-data.html

 

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1 hour ago, taestell said:

 

I was told that socialism is bad because it requires goods to be rationed, and yet we have had a 2 week toilet paper shortage because our capitalist supply chain can't figure out how to produce enough supply to meet demand...

 

I meant the airline bailouts.  They remove the incentive for the companies to make good choices for fear of failure in the marketplace (a major criticism of socialism), but also retain the ownership structure of capitalism, providing the most benefit to only those at the top.  It's a bunch of crap.

 

As to your point, I think the irrational and selfish behavior of people during this crisis is only strengthening the argument that government is essential to maintain order and some equity in times of crisis especially.

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5 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

351 confirmed in Ohio.

 

So 169 on Friday, 247 yesterday and 351 today. Not good. Not flattening.

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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17 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

So 169 on Friday, 247 yesterday and 351 today. Not good. Not flattening.

 

 

I thought the declines today in Italy might be a good sign on the lockdown timeline I wrote about, but it turns out that testing was significantly reduced from Saturday and that likely explains all of the new case decrease.  Furthermore, we have seen declines in both new cases and new deaths several times during the course of the outbreak, only to shoot up another notch a day or two later.  Hopefully, that is not the case, but we need more than a single data point to see if the lockdown there is having any real effect... and the implications it might have for the US.

 

Meanwhile, New York is clearly becoming the US' Wuhan or Italy, with more than 12,000 new cases recorded since about 8pm yesterday, and they've already had more fatalities than South Korea.

Edited by jonoh81

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21 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

So 169 on Friday, 247 yesterday and 351 today. Not good. Not flattening.

 

There's more testing being done so the number of diagnoses will increase significantly. If this thing has been out there for weeks or months, as some suggest, this may just be the tip of the iceburg.

Remember not everyone who's symptomatic is even able to get a test. Bottom line..there are a lot of people who are possibly positive but who will never receive a molecular test. That's another reason why antibody tests are needed.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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18 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

So 169 on Friday, 247 yesterday and 351 today. Not good. Not flattening.

 

 

It will be at least another week before we can evaluate whether the curve is being flattened by the measures taken.  Schools have only been out a week and those were the first things to close.  Also, the number of hospitalizations is a much more important metric than number of confirmed cases since the latter is very reliant upon how much testing is done.

 

Hospitalizations by day...

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26 (+9)

3/19 - 33 (+7)

3/20 - 39 (+6)

3/21 - 58 (+19)

3/22 - 83 (+25)

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US cases: 38,167. Deaths: 396.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

When I posted 16 hours ago, it was less than 27,000.

 

I am afraid we are on the worst possible curve. Is it too late for any kind of national "shelter in place" etc. order to have much of a difference?  How long would it have to last? This is apparently not going to be so seasonal-look at Florida and Lousiana- they are in the top 7 states in infection and it is pretty warm there. 

Edited by Toddguy

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Rand Paul who held up funding for Coronavirus bill has tested positive.  First senator to test positive.  He’s asymptomatic.  
karma is a b$@&”

Edited by audidave

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42 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

Hard pass.

Who could they give money to that they'd want to hide until after the election? It's truly a mystery. 

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So the US is at .8 percent death rate? Subject to change every minute I'm sure, but that does seem low compared to a lot of other places.

 

Spoke to soon, now 1.03%.

Edited by TBideon

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Just now, audidave said:

Rand Paul who held up funding for Coronavirus bill has tested positive.  First senator to test positive.  He’s asymptomatic.  

It must be nice to be an elite and get a test with no symptoms. 

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7 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

Good news is that as the testing increases, the mortality rate decreases. Initially, mortality was running at 3.4%.

Well mortality lags behind, right? This disease can run for weeks with those with severe cases. Is the first case in NY even out of the ICU yet? A few days ago I read that this guy(in his 50's)was just out of an induced coma of ten days and still on a ventilator?  I believe this was the first case in New Rochelle. 

 

 

Edited by Toddguy

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Just read that NY Times piece. Very good. I think this nationwide isolation/lockdown is a careless, shotgun approach that is going to cause more harm than it creates if it continues. Most of us are going to get coronavirus and develop antibodies to it which is normal. But some at-risk people can't afford to get it, any more than they can afford to get pneumonia. Should they remain on lockdown until a vaccine can reach them? For 12-18 months? Is that actually going to happen? Is that actually going to keep them healthy? Are they going to suffer other ailments by being stuck at home for so long? Will COVID-19 eventually find them over 12-18 months regardless of lockdown?


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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5 minutes ago, freefourur said:

It must be nice to be an elite and get a test with no symptoms. 

Well given the age of Congress and much of the other elite, they are going to experience a bit of a culling-they may not be able to buy themselves out of this.

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26 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

I thought the declines today in Italy might be a good sign on the lockdown timeline I wrote about, but it turns out that testing was significantly reduced from Saturday and that likely explains all of the new case decrease.  Furthermore, we have seen declines in both new cases and new deaths several times during the course of the outbreak, only to shoot up another notch a day or two later.  Hopefully, that is not the case, but we need more than a single data point to see if the lockdown there is having any real effect... and the implications it might have for the US.

 

Meanwhile, New York is clearly becoming the US' Wuhan or Italy, with more than 12,000 new cases recorded since about 8pm yesterday, and they've already had more fatalities than South Korea.

 

I think it's important to be patient waiting on these numbers to change. The full lockdown in Italy just hit two weeks which seems to be about the full incubation period of the virus? Which means all these deaths likely caught it beforehand, and many new cases showing up probably caught it beforehand too. The world is watching the numbers in Italy but they need more time and they need to stay the course. Give it another few weeks. Same for us here in the USA.

Edited by mu2010

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5 minutes ago, KJP said:

Just read that NY Times piece. Very good. I think this nationwide isolation/lockdown is a careless, shotgun approach that is going to cause more harm than it creates if it continues. Most of us are going to get coronavirus and develop antibodies to it which is normal. But some at-risk people can't afford to get it, any more than they can afford to get pneumonia. Should they remain on lockdown until a vaccine can reach them? For 12-18 months? Is that actually going to happen? Is that actually going to keep them healthy? Are they going to suffer other ailments by being stuck at home for so long? Will COVID-19 eventually find them over 12-18 months regardless of lockdown?

The answer is it’s anybody’s guess.  Again look at Germany and Thailand. It looks like NYC might get the brunt of this.  As an international hub, that isn’t surprising for an international virus. 
  If we can test in the spots that have the most aggressive strains of virus that might limit it. 

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5 minutes ago, KJP said:

Just read that NY Times piece. Very good. I think this nationwide isolation/lockdown is a careless, shotgun approach that is going to cause more harm than it creates if it continues. Most of us are going to get coronavirus and develop antibodies to it which is normal. But some at-risk people can't afford to get it, any more than they can afford to get pneumonia. Should they remain on lockdown until a vaccine can reach them? For 12-18 months? Is that actually going to happen? Is that actually going to keep them healthy? Are they going to suffer other ailments by being stuck at home for so long? Will COVID-19 eventually find them over 12-18 months regardless of lockdown?

There may have to be largescale, once unthinkable measures to ensure the economy runs again. Perhaps forced isolation for all seniors and those with health vulnerabilities. Mandatory masks or facial covering fabrics for everyone leaving their homes. Restrictions of treatments and medical resources for convicted and documented criminals. Mandated temperature exams for all workers and consumers in businesses. Smart phone apps that measure body chemistry by some Orwellian agency.

 

Draconian measures for violators.

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8 minutes ago, KJP said:

Just read that NY Times piece. Very good. I think this nationwide isolation/lockdown is a careless, shotgun approach that is going to cause more harm than it creates if it continues. Most of us are going to get coronavirus and develop antibodies to it which is normal. But some at-risk people can't afford to get it, any more than they can afford to get pneumonia. Should they remain on lockdown until a vaccine can reach them? For 12-18 months? Is that actually going to happen? Is that actually going to keep them healthy? Are they going to suffer other ailments by being stuck at home for so long? Will COVID-19 eventually find them over 12-18 months regardless of lockdown?

A think the rationale is that our healthcare system, specifically hospital ERs and ICUs, can't handle the patient volume. SNFs and ALFs as in Kirkland, WA, are especially susceptible with their elderly patient populations.

 

Most facilities in hot zones are already stretched, but if COVID-19s already been circulating for a month or more, many patients have already contracted it with mild symptoms and its resolved itself.

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16 minutes ago, audidave said:

The answer is it’s anybody’s guess.  Again look at Germany and Thailand. It looks like NYC might get the brunt of this.  As an international hub, that isn’t surprising for an international virus. 
  If we can test in the spots that have the most aggressive strains of virus that might limit it. 

The New Rochelle attorney, who worked in the city and commuted may have been a contributor to the New Rochelle and NYC clusters.

 

Governor DeWine, along with Cuomo and Newsome have demonstrated phenomenal leadership. DeSantis of Florida however, allowed the kids to continue to play on the beaches until this past Thursday, then sent them all packing to the four corners.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Well on one positive note for us in Ohio(besides having one of the better responding governors)-we are not likely to have some major natural disaster like a major earthquake or hurricane anytime soon. Other places may not be so lucky. A major hurricane or earthquake in an urban area with this pandemic? *shudders*.  

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13 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Well good in that I can use this to keep my dad at home!

 

And damn I knew I should have gotten my hair cut last time I was out(never mind I think barbers/salons are exempt)

 

*this came sooner than I thought it would

Edited by Toddguy

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Under these circumstances, the American people must hold Congress and the White House accountable for their response to this crisis.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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https://www.13abc.com/content/news/Wood-County-confirms-first-two-cases-of-COVID-19-569010031.html

 

Wood county confirms first 2 cases 

 

https://www.13abc.com/content/news/Hancock-County-resident-tests-positive-for-COVID-19-569008371.html

 

Hancock county resident tests positive, first in county

 

 

Northwest Ohios 3 most populated counties are now on the board

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25 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said:

Under these circumstances, the American people must hold Congress and the White House accountable for their response to this crisis.

 

Many will, but a healthy number will not.  We actually still have so many actually celebrating them.

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46 minutes ago, KJP said:

Just read that NY Times piece. Very good. I think this nationwide isolation/lockdown is a careless, shotgun approach that is going to cause more harm than it creates if it continues. Most of us are going to get coronavirus and develop antibodies to it which is normal. But some at-risk people can't afford to get it, any more than they can afford to get pneumonia. Should they remain on lockdown until a vaccine can reach them? For 12-18 months? Is that actually going to happen? Is that actually going to keep them healthy? Are they going to suffer other ailments by being stuck at home for so long? Will COVID-19 eventually find them over 12-18 months regardless of lockdown?

 

The latest thing to be making the rounds is people having the symptoms, and recovering from them, much earlier than the official alert.   As early as late December.

 

The treatment drugs will come into play way before any vaccine and they potentially make this very much like the flu.  Chop off some of the hospitalizations and most of the mortality and that's what this is.  Like the flu.

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3 hours ago, taestell said:

 

I was told that socialism is bad because it requires goods to be rationed, and yet we have had a 2 week toilet paper shortage because our capitalist supply chain can't figure out how to produce enough supply to meet demand...

 

You know where most TP is made, right?

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