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I saw some discussion that the sudden surge in testing in the USA bending the curve upward. Wonder if there's any truth in that? I guess we'll know in about a week if the curve starts flattening.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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22 minutes ago, KJP said:

I saw some discussion that the sudden surge in testing in the USA bending the curve upward. Wonder if there's any truth in that? I guess we'll know in about a week if the curve starts flattening.

 

The curve we see from our very limited testing likely doesn't reflect the actual curve at all... We are only testing those who show symptoms, and usually serious symptoms at that... it's a biased sample that probably will only get more biased. The asymptomatic aren't being tested at all and we don't really have any clue what % of the population has it.

 

A positive outlook could be that the measures we've implemented are already bending the curve... But it won't show up in the data for a while. On the flip side, it also could be worse.

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Forgive my morbidity, but the discussion I read was that, at least in the USA's case, the best measuring stick of whether we're getting on top of this is the number of people dying from it. If that number starts to level off (and fall in the coming weeks or so), then we'll know if we're making progress.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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11 minutes ago, KJP said:

Forgive my morbidity, but the discussion I read was that, at least in the USA's case, the best measuring stick of whether we're getting on top of this is the number of people dying from it. If that number starts to level off (and fall in the coming weeks or so), then we'll know if we're making progress.

 

I can see this. Each country has such different testing percentages that it doesn't wind up being comparable data. On the other hand, fatality numbers don't lie -- unless people are lying about them.

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I've been watching the talk here and just wanted to weigh in with my own stuff. One of my closest friends is one of the top infectious disease specialists in the WORLD. He was on the front lines in Liberia battling Ebola and in the NYT several times. He is currently consulting for the WHO in Asia, I believe trying to provide help to Asian nations that don't have on-the-ground expertise in working to contain this. Anyway, that's a long way of saying, way back even before everyone I knew was posting about Kobe Bryant, so, mid-January, I started alerting people about this. I tried, I really did. I posted almost every single day trying to warn people what was coming, to start social distancing, to begin slowly stocking up, to stop going out, wash as soon as you get home. I have a handful, and I do mean one handful, of friends and family who listened, but virtually everyone else poo poo'd it, called me paranoid, laughed and continued their lives. My elderly mother listened a little, but refused to give up the library and the Y/silver sneakers until they closed both.

 

We have been social distancing since January, and I've been slowly adding to our home stash of food and TP since then. Once the freakout hit and shelves became empty, we were fully stocked, and all we have had to do is top off supplies as needed with Instacart.

 

I say all this not to gloat, but because I have a super unique perspective right now because not only was I more prepared than most people I know, I have also been living in an emergency crisis mode for the past 2.5 years since I lost my job. I have not had a paycheck, employer or regular FT or PT job since July of 2017. Since then, I have been scraping on what money I can make from freelance writing, dipping on and off of public assistance (first unemployment, then, when that ran out, EBT, Medicaid and Metro's financial assistance plan for medical stuff) and trying to stay afloat while what little savings I had drained away. In case you missed it, I had a viral article last year on HuffPo about my struggle.

 

I was in a long-distance relationship for awhile but last year my boyfriend moved in with me. He isn't able to offer much of any financial support but a few months has helped me make the rent, as there have been months I had zero income at all and I have a LOT of bills to pay, so it's been super helpful that he moved in. He is an installer for a national alarm system company, and they have continued to have work all this time but I warned him two weeks ago that soon stores were going to close and work was going to stop. This week, it did. He has moved to on-call only and had no work the last three days of this week, and only two jobs scheduled for the whole of next week at this point. Fortunately, his employer has agreed to keep paying people through end of April, but after that I don't know what we'll do. He has no savings, I have had no income since the freakout ramped up beginning or mid-February, and we have very little available credit.

 

That being said, I am less panicked about our financial situation than most people would be, because I have been living at rock bottom for almost 3 years now, and it feels like normal not to have any income and to worry every day where I will get money from. yesterday I did a detailed phone survey about costs for a medical expense that made me $100, and that's the only income I've had in two weeks.

 

But I am worried about getting sick. I am immune-compromised and he has a very public-facing job and continues to have to service accounts and go to the parts warehouse where all the other guys are. More than a month ago, I instituted a home policy where anyone who goes out has to take off clothes at the door and put them in the laundry, then scrub hands, but I fear it isn't enough. My kid was in school up until a week ago as well, and who knows what he was exposed to. I begin homeschooling him Monday - I will do that on my weeks since when he is with his dad I don't think they are doing much, school-wise. His dad still has to go to work every day so the kid has been at my ex-SIL's during the day as she is working from home. It is such a strange, difficult time.

 

However, I am used to being home all day every day and never going anywhere because I've been so broke. We almost never do stuff like go out to eat or go to the movies, haven't been on vacation since 2017, and my only major change is I quit going to the gym, which I was finally able to start doing after two surgeries on my leg, which I severely shattered last March.

 

This is very long, and I'm sorry, but I just wanted to say hi to all my UOers and check in from the southwest suburbs. I am doing all the reading, watching, hoping we flatten the curve within a couple of months.

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^ you know what? something about karma here, as you have been long prepared. 

 

its good to hear from you, take care and all the best.

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My brother lives in NEO and has coronavirus symptoms. He is young and healthy so the doctor told him to quarantine without doing any tests. Just another example showing the number infected is probably astronomically higher than we think.

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7 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

^ you know what? something about karma here, as you have been long prepared. 

 

its good to hear from you, take care and all the best.

Yeah IDK if karma or just how my life is. Sure is weird to not be panicked when everyone else is. but you get tired of screaming, and after 2.5 years, now this is my normal. I've been writing a series of free posts on my Patreon to try to impart some lessons learned that would be of help in this time, if anyone is interested:

https://www.patreon.com/rustbeltrants

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Couple of thoughts: 

 

  1. Though the number is still rising rapidly, we might actually be flattening the curve already - at least in OH, PA, IL, NY, etc. As testing becomes more available, we'll see higher numbers - but we may be leveling off without knowing it. 
  2. It's an absolute disgrace that Trump will compare his numbers at the end of this with the elsewheres of the world as some sort of success, despite providing tests at 10% the rate of other countries. 

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3 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

Iran omitted, as well as China:
 

willis-coronavirus-by-country.jpg

 

This chart is going to change a lot over the next month or two, IMO.  

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Here are the worst 15 nations for new cases since 6pm EST yesterday until 1pm today.

 

1. Italy: +6557 *a new record

2. Spain: +3803

3. USA: +2830

4. Germany: +2006

5. Iran: +966

6. Switzerland: +758

7. Netherlands: +637

8. Belgium: +558

9. Portugal: +260

10. Pakistan: +219

11. Austria: +198

12. Luxembourg: +186

13. Israel: +178

14. Norway: +160

15. Malaysia: +153

 

# of nations with at least 100 new cases since 6pm on 3/20: 20

# of nations with at least 50 new cases since 6pm on 3/20: 34 

 

Here are the 15 nations with the most active, unresolved cases as of 1pm.

1. Italy: 42681

2. Spain: 21871

3. USA: 21759

4. Germany: 21568

5. Iran: 11419

6. France: 10575

7. Switzerland: 6284

8. S. Korea: 6085

9. China: 6013

10. UK: 3796

11. Netherlands: 3493

12. Austria: 2830

13. Belgium: 2485

14. Norway: 2111

15. Sweden: 1728

 

Here are the worst 15 nations for new deaths since 6pm yesterday.

1. Italy: +793 *new daily record

2. Spain: +285

3. Iran: +123

4. UK: +56

5. Netherlands: +30

6. Belgium: +30

7. USA: +27

8. Switzerland: +18

9. Germany: +9

10. S. Korea: +8

11. Brazil: +7

12. China: +7

13. Portugal: +6

14. Indonesia: +6

15. San Marino: +5

 

Here are the 15 nations with the most total deaths as of 1pm.

1. Italy: 4825

2. China: 3255

3. Iran: 1556

4. Spain: 1378

5. France: 450

6. USA: 283

7. UK: 233

8. Netherlands: 136

9. S. Korea: 102

10. Germany: 77

11. Switzerland: 74

12. Belgium: 67

13. Indonesia: 38

14. Japan excluding Diamond Princess: 35  With: 43

15.Swedon/San Marino: 20

 

Needless to say, Italy is horrible, but most of Europe is very rough and getting worse.  Those looking for hope in Germany's relatively low death rate should remember that like 98% of its cases are unresolved.  South Korea's rate has risen to 1.2%, and will probably keep rising to at least 2% or higher as more of its cases are resolved, which means it didn't luck out as much as some had originally hoped.  Only it's fantastic testing and quarantine measures saved it.  That will not be the case in most nations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

That's pretty close to true.

Some of you might want to consider that the motivations behind sprawl just got put on steroids, and the cities that thrive moving forwards will be the ones that embrace it.

 

 

some of you might want to take notice that the earliest and most known to infected place in the nyc metro was very suburban new rochelle.

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6 hours ago, taestell said:

 

Updated:

 

ETngooaWAAAMWm0.jpeg

 

There doesn't appear to be any correlation between population density and the trajectory of infection.

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What’s going on in Italy puts a pit in my stomach. It’s awful. Seriously makes my stomach uneasy.

 

 

as far as Ohio numbers. We know it’s going to go up. The key is to not stack cases exponentially with these days of thousands of people adding to the total.  We can’t have exponential growth. I am hopeful we can manage the caseload and specifically the critical care caseload. NYC is in such bad shape. 

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These companies make money when times are good, then bailouts when times are bad. If United is threatening mass layoffs, just give the money directly to the workers.

Edited by Mendo

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I finally got to meet up with my friend who is a scientist for Thermo Fisher.
 

Crazy, but in two weeks he’s in charge of making sure that 1.5 million test kits will be manufactured each week. 

 

His opinion is that in some point in time everyone is going to get this virus. And that you definitely don’t want to contract it right now while there’s inadequate supplies. 
 

He also said don’t worry about people handling your food so much, since your stomach acid will kill the virus. But treat anything or substance outside of your house like it’s infected, as touching your nose and eyes are the biggest risk.
 

 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Mendo said:

These companies make money when times are good, then bailouts when times are bad. If United is threatening mass layoffs, just give the money directly to the workers.

 

Correct.  The employees need income much more than the stockholders need the stock to survive, although I'd bet a large number of Delta, United, etc. employees own their respective stocks.  The retirees and common stockholders didn't ask the companies to blow the Trump-era tax cuts on stock buybacks. 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Correct.  The employees need income much more than the stockholders need the stock to survive, although I'd bet a large number of Delta, United, etc. employees own their respective stocks.  The retirees and common stockholders didn't ask the companies to blow the Trump-era tax cuts on stock buybacks. 

 

 

 


I also agree. There will always be a need for airlines so even if the government lets the major carriers go bankrupt new ones will be figured out soon. It’s not like people are just going to give up flying once this crisis is over.

 

The workers on the other hand will definitely need help to get through this crisis.

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Letting the airlines fail and making new ones have to reorganize and reestablish themselves is a great way to undercut global transportation and thus prolong any kind of recession that comes out of this. Also, bankruptcy isn't victimless. Either the government eats the cost of this situation through a bailout, or the airlines' creditors eat the cost of this situation through bankruptcy... Which could also have a ripple effect through the economy. No, a bailout is necessary one way or the other. However, I do believe that any 'essential,' 'too big to fail' industries should be highly regulated to protect consumers. In return for the bailouts.

Edited by mu2010

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And the planes will make it (well most). Some companies with tons of cash and/or lots of access to capital will just take them over. It's not like you have to build a factory to do it. Do the airlines even own their planes or are they leased?

 

It's like when Airwolf ended. Sure the various General Lees and K.I.T.T.s went to museums or the casts' garages, but no way was there enough money to park Airwolf. It ended up going to Germany and became a medical helicopter before it eventually was destroyed in a crash.

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55 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Correct.  The employees need income much more than the stockholders need the stock to survive, although I'd bet a large number of Delta, United, etc. employees own their respective stocks.  The retirees and common stockholders didn't ask the companies to blow the Trump-era tax cuts on stock buybacks. 

 

 

 

 

The vast majority of outstanding stock shares on the market are housed in mutual funds, though at some companies such as Ford they do lie in the hands of a family or executives.

 

Frankly, it might be better if airlines were part of larger operations rather than being pure-play companies in order to help insulate them from all these ups and downs in demand. Flying is hard.

Edited by GCrites80s

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2 hours ago, surfohio said:

I finally got to meet up with my friend who is a scientist for Thermo Fisher.
 

Crazy, but in two weeks he’s in charge of making sure that 1.5 million test kits will be manufactured each week. 

 

His opinion is that in some point in time everyone is going to get this virus. And that you definitely don’t want to contract it right now while there’s inadequate supplies. 
 

He also said don’t worry about people handling your food so much, since your stomach acid will kill the virus. But treat anything or substance outside of your house like it’s infected, as touching your nose and eyes are the biggest risk.
 

 
 

 

He is partially correct. 

 

Everyone will either:

- Contract the virus and acquire immunity as a result

- Acquire immunity through vaccination, once available

- Succumb to the infection

- Never become infected because they've been fortunate enough to avoid exposure. This occurs via isolation and/or when most of the population has acquired immunity

 

For now, only those with resolved infections have immunity. Anyone who has not been exposed to the virus is vulnerable and will remain vulnerable until one of the above scenarios occurs.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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US is at 26,686 cases, Passing Spain and now third in number of total cases after China and Italy. 

 

340 US deaths. 

 

World: 307,627 total cases, 13,050 deaths

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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2 hours ago, mu2010 said:

Letting the airlines fail and making new ones have to reorganize and reestablish themselves is a great way to undercut global transportation and thus prolong any kind of recession that comes out of this. Also, bankruptcy isn't victimless. Either the government eats the cost of this situation through a bailout, or the airlines' creditors eat the cost of this situation through bankruptcy... Which could also have a ripple effect through the economy. No, a bailout is necessary one way or the other. However, I do believe that any 'essential,' 'too big to fail' industries should be highly regulated to protect consumers. In return for the bailouts.

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.


Very Stable Genius

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Thanks, Dewine:

 

From channel 19 - re: the most well known restaurant in town: sickening...

 

Restaurant owners worry about bankruptcy

“Who will be standing when this is over and there’s a lot of questions and I don’t know if they are being addressed to us as individuals."

 

https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/03/22/restaurant-owners-worry-about-bankruptcy/

 

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1 hour ago, eyehrtfood said:

Thanks, Dewine:

 

From channel 19 - re: the most well known restaurant in town: sickening...

 

Restaurant owners worry about bankruptcy

“Who will be standing when this is over and there’s a lot of questions and I don’t know if they are being addressed to us as individuals."

 

https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/03/22/restaurant-owners-worry-about-bankruptcy/

 

 

If you survive covid-19 (if you get it--and many experts predict you will unless you truly are isolated from all other people and things from outside unless drastic actions by government are taken), you may never know if DeWine's actions may have saved your life. Or those of others you may care about. This thing is HIGHLY contagious much more so than the flu and the impacts of it on people are much more devastating than the flu. What I think is particularly frightening is that people such as yourself which are seemingly smart and rationale, still don't grasp how serious this condition is, and as a result will help to spread it to--and kill--many others.

Edited by Pugu
Corrected a typo

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41 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.

 

700 WLW has an "aviation expert" who is paid to call in every so often.  He's also a day trader.  Here he is:  https://www.daytradefun.com/?fbclid=IwAR3Xte7L4bqV1ssPWMBoozya5GdclnSpNiVnXDLbrJSMJelSs7Lsasr26Ss

 

These stooges know damn well that the airlines enjoy a preposterous place of privilege within American business.  Everyone stop and think for just a second as to why most international carriers around the world are state-owned or at the very least so-called "flag carriers".  Before deregulation, we had a de facto flag carrier, Pan Am.  It took 12 years but eventually Pan Am was brought down after deregulation and was bought out by Delta.  Atlanta, Ga became the conspicuous beneficiary of the demise of Pan-Am, and to a lesser extent Cincinnati.  All of us here are familiar with the sad rise and fall of Delta's Cincinnati hub - including the appearance and then disappearance of its many international flights - all because of Delta's Pan-Am acquisition.  

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.

 

I'd support that.

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7 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.


I recall reading somewhere that is type of measure is under consideration. It wouldn't be unprecedented as the TARP program took equity stakes in banks that it bailed-out.

From Wikipedia: "TARP recovered funds totalling $441.7 billion from $426.4 billion invested, earning a $15.3 billion profit or an annualized rate of return of 0.6% and perhaps a loss when adjusted for inflation"  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program)

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10 hours ago, surfohio said:

These cases from overseas (China, Japan) have not been confirmed and research hasn't been conducted to determine the strength, specificity and longevity of an immune response. Serology (Ab) testing is also not yet available.

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12 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.

Agreed, similar to the auto industry in 2008. Also money should not be used for stock repurchasing, which only benefits the executives, major shareholders. It should be invested in shoring up the average worker.

 

Given my opinion of UAL from the whole CLE de-hubbing, unrestricted airline support doesn't sit well with me.

 

If there had been more support for the average steel industry worker however, in the 60s-80s, Cleveland would be a very different city today; maybe for the better, but also, maybe for the worse.

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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9 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.

We should all, at the least, get free checked bags.   This move alone would bring some sense of civility back to flying, where currently every other passenger is trying to carry 70 lbs of crap on board with them. 

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9 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If the taxpayers need to bailout these industries every 12 years, we simply should get an equity stake in those companies. And at the current amounts they're asking for, we'd become majority shareholders.  Only seems fair.

 

Exactly.  The way it is working now, it is like the worst of socialism combined with the worst of capitalism.

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And lots of people are carrying on bags that are much larger and heavier than specs provided by the airlines. Apparently, most airlines do not bother checking size of passengers' carry-on bag. On my flight to Denver a couple weeks ago, the guy sitting next to me had a big bag on the floor wedged between his seat and the seat in front that must have weighed 100 pounds. I know because when he moved to another seat, he asked me to pick it up and give it to him.

Edited by skiwest

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I came across this great article on Dr. Amy Acton from the Youngstown Vindicator last year. Dr. Acton had a very rough childhood. This article does a wonderful job of telling her story. 
 

https://vindyarchives.com/news/2019/aug/31/ohio-leaders-passion-comes-from-youngsto/

 

“Dr. Amy Acton had no expectation last winter to be picked by Gov. Mike DeWine as the director of the Ohio Department of Health.  She had never met DeWine. She says she’s as nonpolitical as they come. And she smiles when politely dodging who she voted for – which says she either didn’t vote or voted for the other guy.
 

”So when he called her about the vacancy, she let it all out about what was wrong with Ohio public health care and what needed to be done differently – after all, she wasn’t going to get the job. Well, she got the job.

 

”What she must have said was surely powerful. But how she said it was probably more powerful. She unloaded on me about vital Ohio health needs for 30 minutes nonstop. Then I asked her my second question.”

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neighbor is a healthcare professional for Clinic.  She said her entire team is being reassigned to deal with various Covid emergencies.   They expect the virus to PEAK at something like day 48 or something close to that and we are at about day 14 I think so we have another 30 plus days before we hit peak infections then it SHOULD start to trail off...   

 

So bottom line I expect the Governor to put Ohio in lock down mode this week.  I think kids won't go back to school this year considering peak won't hit till early May.

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1 minute ago, gottaplan said:

neighbor is a healthcare professional for Clinic.  She said her entire team is being reassigned to deal with various Covid emergencies.   They expect the virus to PEAK at something like day 48 or something close to that and we are at about day 14 I think so we have another 30 plus days before we hit peak infections then it SHOULD start to trail off...   

 

So bottom line I expect the Governor to put Ohio in lock down mode this week.  I think kids won't go back to school this year considering peak won't hit till early May.

I think this is accurate. I don't think there'll be any school this year.  I think if people can practice good social distance and avoid spreading the infection, we might be able to move more freely by summer. 

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