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7 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Almost 6,000 new cases too.  The lockdown better have an effect soon or we're in big trouble (and it will drastically undermine the reality that China is selling about its own efforts).

 

What do you mean about China ? Is there suspicion they are lying about their success containing this?

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2 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

What do you mean about China ? Is there suspicion they are lying about their success containing this?

I think any information from China should be met with suspicion. 

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1 minute ago, mu2010 said:

 

What do you mean about China ? Is there suspicion they are lying about their success containing this?

 

I'm not sure who actually takes China's numbers at face value.  Hong Kong reported 48 new cases yesterday, with about 2/3rds from travelers arriving into the city, but the rest through community spread.  It betrays all logic to think that Hong Kong all by itself is seeing that while the rest of China combined has seen 0 new cases in 2 days.  It's just not believable.

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^Also China has kicked out the last of the major newspaper journalists in the last 5 days.  They don’t want them snooping and reporting other than what the Chinese government says is happening. 

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Questions Regarding quarantine numbers:


Maybe I am off on this but whenever Italy started their lockdown you probably need to add 14 days which is asymptomatic spread so the numbers will probably rise until the 14th day then plateau.

 

Also, it may be longer than that because of testing issues, so they maybe had to catch up too.

 

Does anyone know when they started the lockdown? Edit: Looks like March 9th, so you can maybe reasonably expect the numbers to continue to rise daily until the 23rd of March then plateau.

 

The number of deaths will keep rising past that maybe another 14 days then plateau, since deaths lag confirmed cases. Though with Italy's issues of being overrun, the deaths may lag only 7 days (as a guess) vs normal 14 days since these people won't be able to get treated. So, I would expect Italy death numbers to rise on day to day basis until around March 30th then plateau. 

 

Also, agree on China...

Edited by IAGuy39

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1 minute ago, IAGuy39 said:

Questions Regarding quarantine numbers:


Maybe I am off on this but whenever Italy started their lockdown you probably need to add 14 days which is asymptomatic spread so the numbers will probably rise until the 14th day then plateau.

 

Also, it may be longer than that because of testing issues, so they maybe had to catch up too.

 

Does anyone know when they started the lockdown?

i know it took place in two phases. first phase was lockdown in northern part of the country. then it was nation wide.

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2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Most people really nice, but the stress seems to be getting to some people.

 

I think most people understand the seriousness of the situation and didn't have problems when the closures and other restrictions went into effect. However, more people are going to panic as they start to realize that the closures, social distancing, working from home, and potentially more strict lockdowns will need to be in place for much longer in order to be effective. I am starting to see a lot of hot takes from conservatives/libertarians staying that "we need to end the closures in 2 weeks so that the economy can go back to normal". I don't think there's any chance of that happening, and if it does, the virus is going to spread just like we didn't have closures in the first place.

 

We May Be In This for the Long Haul…

 

Quote

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population — which could be 18 months or more.

 

Coronavirus will radically alter the U.S.

 

Quote

Only by enacting an entire series of drastic, severe restrictions could America shrink its death toll further, the study found. That strategy would require, at a minimum, the nationwide practice of social distancing, home isolation, and school and university closures. And such restrictions would have to be maintained, at least intermittently, until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.

 

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1 minute ago, IAGuy39 said:

Questions Regarding quarantine numbers:


Maybe I am off on this but whenever Italy started their lockdown you probably need to add 14 days which is asymptomatic spread so the numbers will probably rise until the 14th day then plateau.

 

Also, it may be longer than that because of testing issues, so they maybe had to catch up too.

 

Does anyone know when they started the lockdown?

 

The Lombardy region entered lockdown on the 8th, and the rest of Italy followed on the 9th, so today is the 11th day.  

 

And as I mentioned before, they are still having trouble actually keeping people in their homes.  Tons of people are still violating it.

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3 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The Lombardy region entered lockdown on the 8th, and the rest of Italy followed on the 9th, so today is the 11th day.  

 

And as I mentioned before, they are still having trouble actually keeping people in their homes.  Tons of people are still violating it.

even without 100% compliance, I'd expect the new cases to slow down. But maybe we need to wait and see beyond 14 days.

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For comparison, China began locking down Wuhan and Hubei province on January 23rd and then gradually expanded the scope and range to include more people and areas.  If you believe their numbers, there were 2 new case peaks- one on February 4th and another on February 12th when they changed the testing.  So if we take the 4th as gospel, that would've been a peak 12 days after lockdown began, or 20 days if you go by the somewhat more artificial peak on the 12th.  So if Italy followed the same trajectory, the numbers should peak between tomorrow and the 29th, with deaths peaking around the same time into early April due to lag time.

It should be remembered that China's lockdown is/was supposedly far stricter than what Italy or any other country currently has.

Edited by jonoh81

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15 minutes ago, freefourur said:

even without 100% compliance, I'd expect the new cases to slow down. But maybe we need to wait and see beyond 14 days.

 

Yeah, seems like the discussion doesn't have much point until the 2 weeks have passed. 

 

I read 43,000 people have been caught violating the lockdown. In a country of 60 million. Say only 10% were caught. That's about half a million out of 60 million people. The lockdown should substantially impact transmission even without full compliance.

Edited by mu2010

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9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

For comparison, China began locking down Wuhan and Hubei province on January 23rd and then gradually expanded the scope and range to include more people and areas.  If you believe their numbers, there were 2 new case peaks- one on February 4th and another on February 12th when they changed the testing.  So if we take the 4th as gospel, that would've been a peak 12 days after lockdown began, or 20 days if you go by the somewhat more artificial peak on the 12th.  So if Italy followed the same trajectory, the numbers should peak between tomorrow and the 29th, with deaths peaking around the same time into early April due to lag time.

It should be remembered that China's lockdown is/was supposedly far stricter than what Italy or any other country currently has.

 

Yes the Italy one would probably be further lag time as far as new cases than China. In China they were literally locking people in their own homes.

 

Also Italy may have higher death rates than the USA will because their hospitals were so overwhelmed. I expect the USA as a percentage terms will have a lower "peak" than Italy, but the numbers will be much higher. I also expect the USA to have some really bad areas of infection like we are starting to see in NYC already.

 

To think, Italy (116,000 sq miles with 60 million people) is basically the size of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana combined (122,000 sq miles with 23 million people)

 

The Bos-Wash Corridor maybe is a good comparison to Italy itself though I don't know the exact stats on Bos-Wash Corridor

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Dark and Stormy, thanks for all the updates.  You are doing a great job covering this and consolidating information into a single UO thread.

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Just now, IAGuy39 said:

To think, Italy (116,000 sq miles with 60 million people) is basically the size of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana combined (122,000 sq miles with 23 million people)

 

The Bos-Wash Corridor maybe is a good comparison to Italy itself though I don't know the exact stats on Bos-Wash Corridor

 

Actually California is about the best comparison. Similar size, population, and even climate.

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4 minutes ago, BelievelandD1 said:

Dark and Stormy, thanks for all the updates.  You are doing a great job covering this and consolidating information into a single UO thread.

 

You're welcome.  h/t to @freefourur for the daily tracking idea.


Very Stable Genius

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Hospitalizations by day:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26

3/19 - 33

3/20 - 39

 

Hopefully this trend keeps up, which would indicate the lockdown is having the desired effect.  (Also, I am assuming that these are cumulative as people likely have to been released yet, but obviously at some point it'll be harder to know how many are new hospitalizations.)

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4 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

Hospitalizations by day:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26

3/19 - 33

3/20 - 39

 

Hopefully this trend keeps up, which would indicate the lockdown is having the desired effect.  (Also, I am assuming that these are cumulative as people likely have to been released yet, but obviously at some point it'll be harder to know how many are new hospitalizations.)

 

Ohio has no recoveries to this point, so all 39 are still hospitalized.

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9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Ohio has no recoveries to this point, so all 39 are still hospitalized.

 

I am unsure what constitutes a recovery.  How are people counted that never were hospitalized?

 

Regardless, assuming that nobody has been sent home from the hospital yet, that means that the new hospitalizations per day is steady (or actually decreasing slightly) even while the number of cases is growing exponentially, which seems to indicate that the growth of new cases is driven primarily by the expansion of testing.

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8 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

 

I am unsure what constitutes a recovery.  How are people counted that never were hospitalized?

 

Regardless, assuming that nobody has been sent home from the hospital yet, that means that the new hospitalizations per day is steady (or actually decreasing slightly) even while the number of cases is growing exponentially, which seems to indicate that the growth of new cases is driven primarily by the expansion of testing.

 

We're really only talking about confirmed cases.  Hospitalization is only occurring in the more moderate to severe cases, and I assume that most, if not all, of those are being or will eventually be tested.  

I tend to think that confirmed cases are growing because of increased testing, but there's almost definitely still widespread expansion of those infected.

As for what recovery means, it seems to be defined as when someone is no longer symptomatic and/or also no longer contagious.

Edited by jonoh81

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https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-governor-says-hes-being-outbid-federal-government-coronavirus-supplies-despite-1493332

 

Quote

During a conference call between state officials and President Donald Trump on Thursday, Massachusetts Republican Governor Charlie Baker said the state had been outbid by the federal government while attempting to purchase personal protective equipment (PPE) during the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Trump said at a coronavirus task force press briefing on Monday that state governments should attempt to purchase PPE such as face masks, respirators and ventilators "on their own" if it means they can receive the equipment faster.

 


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

image.png.7cdffbe42fe65e55f86b2474f8596c87.png

 

We are accelerating at a faster pace than Italy now.

 

In number of cases, yes.  But in deaths, the US has had 1/4 as many as of March 19 as Italy had on March 11 (207 vs 824).  This is probably partially due to them having many more infections than they knew about, and partially due to the makeup of their populace.

Edited by jam40jeff

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2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

I tend to think that confirmed cases are growing because of increased testing, but there's almost definitely still widespread expansion of those infected.

As for what recovery means, it seems to be defined as when someone is no longer symptomatic and/or also no longer contagious.

 

There's definitely still expansion of infections, but I wonder if it's becoming more linear instead of exponential.  The number of hospitalizations would be an important metric of that (assuming they don't change the criteria to be admitted).

 

Some people, like the woman from Hudson I saw an article about, are sent home to self-quarantine if their symptoms are not severe.  When will the state consider these patients recovered?  Do they continue testing them?  I don't believe they even have a solid grip on when a person is no longer contagious.  Tests may detect the presence of RNA of the virus even after it is dead and no longer active, however I believe we are not releasing patients until they get two negative tests.  For instance, Carl Goldman, who has a blog about his quarantine, was released two days ago after 42 days of quarantine even though he had no symptoms for a couple weeks.  I am glad we are being safe, but do these people really need to be taking up hospital rooms if we run into a shortage?  Also, this means that the Recovery statistic will linger far behind the others.

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1 hour ago, jam40jeff said:

 

In number of cases, yes.  But in deaths, the US has had 1/4 as many as of March 19 as Italy had on March 11 (207 vs 824).  This is probably partially due to them having many more infections than they knew about, and partially due to the makeup of their populace.

 

I'm wondering why we have not yet been overrun in our hospitals. Even by day 18, Italy's medical systems were failing from the surge, and while there is an uptick in hospital visits here with COVID, it's not yet been overrun. We are still nowhere near peak so I wonder if the worst is yet to come, or if our cases are more mild or less severe because of other factors.

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Article from Ars Technica on the expansion of testing in the U.S.

 

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/america-is-finally-testing-for-coronavirus-in-significant-volumes/?comments=1

 

Quote

America is finally testing for coronavirus in significant volumes

Testing in the US has soared to 100,000 tests, but shortages remain an issue.

TIMOTHY B. LEE - 3/20/2020, 4:34 PM

 

America is finally starting to test for the coronavirus in significant volumes. On Thursday, the total number of coronavirus tests conducted in America topped 100,000, according to the COVID tracking project. That's a 10-fold increase from a week earlier. In the coming days, we can expect the pace of testing to continue increasing as more and more organizations—both academic labs and for-profit companies—ramp up testing efforts.

 

This is important because America has a lot of catching up to do. A series of early missteps at the federal level hampered America's testing efforts in the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis. It wasn't until the end of February that the Food and Drug Administration opened the door for a wide range of organizations to offer coronavirus tests.

 

In the last week, we've started to see the results of that change. Private companies are starting to ship hundreds of thousands of test kits. Drive-through testing stations are sprouting up all over America.

But the explosion of new testing efforts will create challenges of its own. Josh Sharfstein, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, argues that coordination will be increasingly important as the volume of testing increases. A Thursday story in The Wall Street Journal painted a picture of chaos as patients struggled to get tested—even after they've gotten a referral from a doctor to get a test. Some drive-through testing facilities have had long lines and unpredictable hours, the Journal reports.

...

 

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53 minutes ago, seicer said:

I'm wondering why we have not yet been overrun in our hospitals. Even by day 18, Italy's medical systems were failing from the surge, and while there is an uptick in hospital visits here with COVID, it's not yet been overrun. We are still nowhere near peak so I wonder if the worst is yet to come, or if our cases are more mild or less severe because of other factors.

 

Our population is 5x that of Italy's and also younger on average.  Not sure comparing hospital overrun is really fair.


Very Stable Genius

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Just now, DarkandStormy said:

 

Our population is 5x that of Italy's and also younger on average.  Not sure comparing hospital overrun is really fair.

I have some speculation /observations.

Italians are more likely to have multiple generations living together too.  More chance of getting elderly people sick.

Italians are more social than americans (maybe.) They tend to take neighborhood strolls in the evening and visit with neighbors.  

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44 minutes ago, freefourur said:

I have some speculation /observations.

Italians are more likely to have multiple generations living together too.  More chance of getting elderly people sick.

Italians are more social than americans (maybe.) They tend to take neighborhood strolls in the evening and visit with neighbors.  

 

I mean, yeah that's probably all true. And may point to why their elderly are getting hit hard (the stories out of Italy are just heartbreaking).

 

Doesn't really explain the bizarre "well Italy's hospitals were over run by Day X and ours aren't" comparison. We have 5x their population and I'd assume a larger hospital network by a similar factor.

 

Plus, for whatever reason the hospitalization rate here seems to be less. Probably related to the average age difference.


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Our population is 5x that of Italy's and also younger on average.  Not sure comparing hospital overrun is really fair.

 

That's why I take blanket comparisons of cases confirmed/deaths with some skepticism. It's bad, but when you normalize the data to factor in the population, are we that worse of? But I think I answered my question at least with hospital overruns/surges: Coronavirus in N.Y.: ‘Deluge’ of Cases Begins Hitting Hospitals

 

I found the following interactive graphic interesting, from the New York Times: Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say. It shows three scenarios for how the outbreak could spread by July 1. If you need me, I'll be holed up in West Virginia 😒

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1 hour ago, freefourur said:

I have some speculation /observations.

Italians are more likely to have multiple generations living together too.  More chance of getting elderly people sick.

Italians are more social than americans (maybe.) They tend to take neighborhood strolls in the evening and visit with neighbors.  

 

Oh it's definitely a thing. Think of all the open air cafes that are packed with people all through the day and into the night. Seniors spending all day sitting in public playing checkers and chess. Huge public squares and markets full of people. Narrow streets that prevent social distancing. And most people live in cities, not suburbs, small towns and rural areas. High public transit ridership. Less driving. Smaller stores. They're far more public people.

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2 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Oh it's definitely a thing. Think of all the open air cafes that are packed with people all through the day and into the night. Seniors spending all day sitting in public playing checkers and chess. Huge public squares and markets full of people. Narrow streets that prevent social distancing. And most people live in cities, not suburbs, small towns and rural areas. High public transit ridership. Less driving. Smaller stores. They're far more public people.

Even the small towns are densely packed and don't forget all the kissing and hugging. 

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And don’t forget all the tuberculosis!  i kid. 
   I think it has to do also with the strain of Coronavirus that Italy and Iran have is just much more aggressive.   But yes, Italy is a tighter and touchy-feely-kissy kind of place with an older population. 

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Very similar safeguards back then....

 

 


"Nearly every problem that we have in the USA -- unaffordable health care, prison overpopulation, hyper militarization, climate change, racism, gun violence, poverty, poor education, urban sprawl and others -- cannot be positively addressed because bribery and conflicts of interest are legal under campaign finance laws which protect the uber-wealthy and the narrow self-interests who grossly benefit from our afflictions."

 

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2 hours ago, freefourur said:

Even the small towns are densely packed and don't forget all the kissing and hugging. 

 

Average distance between speakers during normal conversation:

America - 4.5 feet

Italians- 6 inches

 

That's a true fact that I just made up...but you get the point.

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I'm the dude who writes stuff off at my company.  The buck stops with me.  Occasionally things get exciting and I get to write off something worth more than $10,000.   But the last two weeks have been a rash of $10-30 write-offs as we are experiencing massive employee theft of the toilet paper, clorox wipes, and other cleaning supplies that suddenly started flowing through our warehouse.  This stuff has only rarely come through in the past.  Now people are going through us to get at the precious toilet paper from our vendors who happen to vend toilet paper, but our employees are intercepting the product.  

 

 

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IMG_2641.JPG

IMG_2642.JPG

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"ITS JUST EVERYWHERE ALREADY"

 

Part of the reason testing has been such a challenge has been due to government bureaucracy, denials and regulations. A chilling story of a Seattle physician who conducted illegal testing, but who as a result, identified a COVID-19 patient months ago.

 

 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage 

Edited by Frmr CLEder

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Talking to my brother who made a very interesting point. Testing of a random sample... Even a small sample... is the only real way to know the prevalence of the virus in the population. And also rates of symptoms and even deaths. Better yet, a random sample getting tested multiple times over a period of a few weeks or months. Unfortunately due to the limited tests available, it's unlikely for now.

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8 hours ago, X said:

 

Average distance between speakers during normal conversation:

America - 4.5 feet

Italians- 6 inches

 

That's a true fact that I just made up...but you get the point.

 

That's pretty close to true.

Some of you might want to consider that the motivations behind sprawl just got put on steroids, and the cities that thrive moving forwards will be the ones that embrace it.

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12 hours ago, freefourur said:

I have some speculation /observations.

Italians are more likely to have multiple generations living together too.  More chance of getting elderly people sick.

Italians are more social than americans (maybe.) They tend to take neighborhood strolls in the evening and visit with neighbors.  

 

Unannounced visits.   Not knowing if someone is getting sick.

Unannounced visiting has been increasingly considered rude in the USA.  "Did you call first?" doormats are getting popular.

Also, smoking is much more common in Italy.

Edited by E Rocc

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1 hour ago, mu2010 said:

Talking to my brother who made a very interesting point. Testing of a random sample... Even a small sample... is the only real way to know the prevalence of the virus in the population. And also rates of symptoms and even deaths. Better yet, a random sample getting tested multiple times over a period of a few weeks or months. Unfortunately due to the limited tests available, it's unlikely for now.

 

I have to agree with this one.


Acton's extrapolation of two into 100,000 was where she and Dewine lost credibility with me.   It's not even close to a statistically significant sample.

But an actual one would be.

The issue would be it might overstate the presence, because people without concerns will decline to participate and that is very much their right.

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1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

That's pretty close to true.

Some of you might want to consider that the motivations behind sprawl just got put on steroids, and the cities that thrive moving forwards will be the ones that embrace it.

 

If that's true then property values would go down in cities. People are fearful of hurricanes and tidal waves, which happen, yet property values still go up along the coast because of constant increase in residential demand. 

 

I just can't see this pandemic having a lasting effect in that regard. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, freefourur said:

Even the small towns are densely packed and don't forget all the kissing and hugging. 

 

This is why Latin America is probably going to be bad.  A lot of those cultural traits- family living together, dense cities, excessive displays of affection, etc. are very common. Brazil is on a similar trajectory to the US and Italy, and several other countries are not far behind in terms of day-over-day growth rates in cases.

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1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

That's pretty close to true.

Some of you might want to consider that the motivations behind sprawl just got put on steroids, and the cities that thrive moving forwards will be the ones that embrace it.

 

Nah, it's not like this is a city vs. rural issue.  It is everywhere.  Growth in all places will likely be reduced significantly this year, and possibly for a few years if the economy goes as bad as expected.  Mobility will be drastically worse, but it will affect cities and rural areas alike.  Furthermore, sprawl's primary determining factor is the subsidization of green field development and auto-centric infrastructure, not because people are afraid to live in cities.  It's far too soon to tell if there'll be any tangible changes in where people choose to live once this is all over.

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On 3/17/2020 at 4:52 PM, taestell said:

Keep in mind this chart is using a logarithmic scale.

ETVcmiWXkAQ-45T.jpeg

 

Updated:

 

ETngooaWAAAMWm0.jpeg

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