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Coronavirus Pandemic

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1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Florida has been very weak on implementing any serious measures to fight the spread.  They're still debating closing beaches because they're worried about spring break tourism.  With the amount of elderly and otherwise unhealthy populations there, they're in trouble in the coming weeks.

 

With the high proportion of elderly there, it is really morally and ethically irresponsible to not close the beaches. How fitting that a Congressman from Florida is first to catch it, or at least publicly say so.

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3 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

We have a serious leadership issue in our country.  For every good leader, we have a political deadbeat who just got elected because of party affiliation or name recognition.  Unofrtunately our population has issues recognizing actual good leadership

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https://coronawiki.org/page/study-17-9-of-people-with-covid-19-coronavirus-had-no-symptoms

 

Quote

Once data from this cruise was made publicly available, the research team statistically modeled the ship out of it. The researchers had to use statistical models to fill in some of the gaps in the data. For example, not all passengers ended being tested for SARS-CoV2 as only 3,063 tests were done. Their analyses estimated that 17.9% of those infected had remained asymptomatic throughout with a 95% credible interval for this number of 15.5% to 20.2%.

 

The outbreak on the Diamond Princess was studied.  Anywhere from 15-20% of people who have covid-19 are asymptomatic.


Very Stable Genius

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How many people have died from the Diamond Princess? The most recent article I could find is from late February and the total was 6. 6 out of over 3700.  South Korea, who many has said did a great job of testing thousands upon thousands of people have a death rate under 1%.  All the data right now could be skewed because only the people with symptoms and doctors orders are being tested in the Cleveland area. So if any number die from Ohio the percentage will be high until a multitude of people are tested to get the true data.  What about all the asymptomatic and people that are just treating this as a cold/flu? They are not being counted.  Scary, because we aren't as familiar with this virus, but is all the shutdown and complete disruption of every facet of society worth it? I don't know the answer to that, but I think more studies like the Diamond Princess would be helpful.  Maybe something along the lines of surveys the do for approval ratings or something similar where they survey 1500 people and extrapolate the data.  So we find a city and test X number of people and track it. Just trying to discuss instead of posting every headline that comes across pick your news site. 

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It's true that the mortality rate could be lower because the infected count is much higher and we've only seen the worst cases materialize to be counted so far.  However, it's not exactly comforting to say that the mortality rate might be lower simply because we've got bad testing procedures in place.

 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html

 

The CDC's worst-case, uncontained, let-nature-run-its-course scenario was 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans dead.

 

Obviously, that's a wide spread, but even on the lower end, that's a lot of death.

 

However, the bigger issue is the infection of between 160 and 214 million people.

 

Suppose the best-case numbers for the mortality rate, which is maximum infections with minimum deaths: 214 million infected, 200,000 dead.  That's 0.0009, or 0.09%.  As a rate, that doesn't look too bad.  But it's still 200,000 Americans dead.  Also, that scenario also means 214 million Americans affected, and the symptoms can be quite severe even for those who survive.  It's true that most healthy workers are not at the greatest risk of death (and, mercifully, neither are children).  If you're worried about the economic consequences of a possible overreaction, remember that that many seriously ill people would affect the economy, too (if we want to be coldly logical about it, moreso than the deaths, which as you note, are concentrated among retirees that are no longer net contributors to GDP).

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16 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Florida has been very weak on implementing any serious measures to fight the spread.  They're still debating closing beaches because they're worried about spring break tourism.  With the amount of elderly and otherwise unhealthy populations there, they're in trouble in the coming weeks.

 

Matter of practicality.   They are full of college kids.  If they close the beaches, the kids will fill up streets and hotel rooms.   They aren't willing to go home and it would require tremendous resources to make them.

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Those are good points and frightening outcomes for sure. I wonder what impact the dismantling of the economy will have on people and their health long term. Impossible to measure, but if mom and pop restaurants and businesses disappear and big companies lay off thousands + and we go into depression, how many people will be in dire situations that could lead to civil unrest? Obviously, many in positions of leadership have deemed it worth it. 

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7 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

Matter of practicality.   They are full of college kids.  If they close the beaches, the kids will fill up streets and hotel rooms.   They aren't willing to go home and it would require tremendous resources to make them.

And when they do go home, their schools are closed so they will take infections to Mom, Dad and grandparents (along with the usual spring break STDs).  

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The other thing we have to remember is that death rates will vary with our hospital system's ability to treat the sick.  That's why the whole "flatten the curve" thing has been pushed.  Once we run out of ventilators and hospital beds, all bets are off on the mortality rate.

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I am hearing the economics argument a lot. 

 

People I think need to understand though, not even talking about hospitals being overrun:

 

If there are tons of people who become severely sick and even 200,000 people who die, the collective hurt the economy would be much worse than shutting things down now.

 

There is no doubt about it. Trust me, I don't know it for a fact, but I guarantee every single governor and the white house and everyone around the world studied that very same question and it all came to the same conclusion... if you don't shut it down now, it will be MUCH worse on the economy if you just let it run it's course.

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https://www.10tv.com/article/ohio-confirms-first-coronavirus-cases-continues-testing-2020-mar

 

Ohio confirmed cases up to 119, in 24 counties.  33 are hospitalized.

 

image.png.1b7f88aee27ac87a48e32a8060084eee.png

 

We are still seeing the 30+% growth rate daily in new cases.  Total cases are nearly doubling every two days - about an 80% increase from the two days prior over the last few days.  DeWine and Acton warned early on that cases would double every six days, so as of now in the early stages, we are accelerating nearly 3x faster than they predicted (perhaps this is due to lack of testing last week).

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

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2 hours ago, STRIVE2THRIVE said:

Those are good points and frightening outcomes for sure. I wonder what impact the dismantling of the economy will have on people and their health long term. Impossible to measure, but if mom and pop restaurants and businesses disappear and big companies lay off thousands + and we go into depression, how many people will be in dire situations that could lead to civil unrest? Obviously, many in positions of leadership have deemed it worth it. 

 

Saying that we are "dismantling" the economy is hopefully overstating the case.  Hopefully it's even overstating the case with respect to the restaurant, hospitality, travel, and live entertainment industries.

 

Consider the case of shuttering schools and daycares.  Do you really think those will never reopen?  Of course not.  They're essential.  Public schools can't go bankrupt.

 

Consider the trillions of GDP that is generated "behind the scenes," not directly public-facing or otherwise dependent on being directly open to the public.  Farms.  Mines.  Wells.  Factories.  Refineries.  Fisheries.  Timberlands and sawmills.  Data centers.  Power plants.  Landfills.  Freight rail and other logistics.  Yes, they all need staff, but they're not so crowded as to be the elevated risks that have warranted quarantines.

 

Consider how much more capable the white-collar office sector of the economy is of working from home now than just five years ago, let alone ten (let alone 100 years ago when the Spanish flu hit).  What's happening in much of the white-collar office sector now is disruptive but I think it's alarmist to say dismantling.

 

So on and so forth.  I don't want to minimize the economic impacts, I recognize that the DJIA is down about 9,000-10,000 points from its high, but we should keep in mind that the bulk of those impacts are more salient because they necessarily affect the most visible sectors of the economy.

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19 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.10tv.com/article/ohio-confirms-first-coronavirus-cases-continues-testing-2020-mar

 

Ohio confirmed cases up to 119, in 24 counties.  33 are hospitalized.

 

image.png.1b7f88aee27ac87a48e32a8060084eee.png

 

We are still seeing the 30+% growth rate daily in new cases.  Total cases are nearly doubling every two days - about an 80% increase from the two days prior over the last few days.  DeWine and Acton warned early on that cases would double every six days, so as of now in the early stages, we are accelerating nearly 3x faster than they predicted (perhaps this is due to lack of testing last week).

 

Thanks for keeping track!

 

I think the case would still be made that it is doubling every six days, we just are so far behind on testing so it looks like it is growing much faster... 

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8 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

 

Saying that we are "dismantling" the economy is hopefully overstating the case.  Hopefully it's even overstating the case with respect to the restaurant, hospitality, travel, and live entertainment industries.

 

Consider the case of shuttering schools and daycares.  Do you really think those will never reopen?  Of course not.  They're essential.  Public schools can't go bankrupt.

 

Consider the trillions of GDP that is generated "behind the scenes," not directly public-facing or otherwise dependent on being directly open to the public.  Farms.  Mines.  Wells.  Factories.  Refineries.  Fisheries.  Timberlands and sawmills.  Data centers.  Power plants.  Landfills.  Freight rail and other logistics.  Yes, they all need staff, but they're not so crowded as to be the elevated risks that have warranted quarantines.

 

Consider how much more capable the white-collar office sector of the economy is of working from home now than just give years ago, let alone ten (let alone 100 years ago when the Spanish flu hit).  What's happening in much of the white-collar office sector now is disruptive but I think it's alarmist to say dismantling.

 

So on and so forth.  I don't want to minimize the economic impacts, I recognize that the DJIA is down about 9,000-10,000 points from its high, but we should keep in mind that the bulk of those impacts are more salient because they necessarily affect the most visible sectors of the economy.

 

 

People do have a tendency to severely underestimate the impact that non-customer-facing companies have on the economy.

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2 hours ago, STRIVE2THRIVE said:

How many people have died from the Diamond Princess? The most recent article I could find is from late February and the total was 6. 6 out of over 3700.  South Korea, who many has said did a great job of testing thousands upon thousands of people have a death rate under 1%.  All the data right now could be skewed because only the people with symptoms and doctors orders are being tested in the Cleveland area. So if any number die from Ohio the percentage will be high until a multitude of people are tested to get the true data.  What about all the asymptomatic and people that are just treating this as a cold/flu? They are not being counted.  Scary, because we aren't as familiar with this virus, but is all the shutdown and complete disruption of every facet of society worth it? I don't know the answer to that, but I think more studies like the Diamond Princess would be helpful.  Maybe something along the lines of surveys the do for approval ratings or something similar where they survey 1500 people and extrapolate the data.  So we find a city and test X number of people and track it. Just trying to discuss instead of posting every headline that comes across pick your news site. 

 

3700 people didn't get it on the DP, 712 did.  178 are unresolved and there have been 7 deaths, so minimum, that would be about a 1% fatality rate assuming none of the other 178 people die.  It can't be any lower than that.  At least 14 of the 178 are in critical condition.  People focus on percentages, but it's the totals that will really matter in the end.  It will be a whole lot of people globally.

South Korea's rate has gradually increased over time from about 0.5% to 1.1% today.  There are 6,527 cases unresolved and still more new cases each day.

 

80%-85% of people end up symptomatic.  If they're having cold/flu symptoms, they are not asymptomatic.  Even assuming mild/asymptomatic cases are not being counted, and we know not all of them are, the guesstimate was that for each person that tests positive, up to 10 more have it.  Ohio's 119 therefore would be 1,190.  I think all this ends up suggesting that there probably aren't millions of asymptomatic carriers that would tend to push down the fatality rate.

 

 

Edited by jonoh81

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3 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

 

People do have a tendency to severely underestimate the impact that non-customer-facing companies have on the economy.

 

That's why when I at least was thinking through this crisis, it seems more manageable Policy wise than the last crisis. The last crisis started on the opposite end as this one, and shuttered from the top to the bottom. This one, in which is otherwise a very healthy economy besides the pandemic, without any real risk factors. This pandemic would be more of what the average everyday person could understand, vs. the last of 2008 when it was a complete and utter collapse of financial institutions and trillions and trillions of dollars.

 

Anything like this will take a couple years to get back to where it was but I don't believe this will be a 2008 type crisis. Only my opinion though!

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image.png.8a852fb1198f7adff6518180738d63e3.png

 

It's not slowing down. These early numbers are likely not extremely reliable though due to lack of widespread testing.  

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Italy coming in with another record day.  More than 5,300 new cases in 24 hours, which is the highest for any nation on any single day, and beat its own record by almost 2,000.  New deaths were slightly better at 427 vs 475 yesterday, but the lockdown hasn't slowed anything down yet.  The fatality rate for confirmed cases is 8.3%, or 43.4% of resolved cases.

Edited by jonoh81

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38 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Even assuming mild/asymptomatic cases are not being counted, and we know not all of them are, the guesstimate was that for each person that tests positive, up to 10 more have it.  Ohio's 119 therefore would be 1,190.

 

Where are you getting this 10:1 ratio from?  Dr. Acton estimated that 117,000 Ohioans were infected when there were still only 5 confirmed cases.

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1 minute ago, freefourur said:

^ Yikes.  This could be the lag in symptoms showing up maybe?  

 

No idea.  There were articles over the past few days saying that they had reached testing capacity limits, but not sure if that's changed at all.  If they had, it could help explain the increase.  They're just getting walloped.  There are thousands of people in critical condition, and that number has been going up too.

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3 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

 

Where are you getting this 10:1 ratio from?  Dr. Acton estimated that 117,000 Ohioans were infected when there were still only 5 confirmed cases.

 

That was based on an assumption of typical epidemiology regarding 2 cases of community spread, not any actual data.  Other studies have suggested up to a 10:1 ratio of confirmed/unconfirmed.  I guess it depends on what you want to believe.  I haven't seen much evidence for there being 100K+ Ohio cases.  20% of cases have typically been severe, so where are those 20K+ people needing hospitalization?

Edited by jonoh81

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48 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

80%-85% of people end up symptomatic.  If they're having cold/flu symptoms, they are not asymptomatic.  Even assuming mild/asymptomatic cases are not being counted, and we know not all of them are, the guesstimate was that for each person that tests positive, up to 10 more have it.  Ohio's 119 therefore would be 1,190.  I think all this ends up suggesting that there probably aren't millions of asymptomatic carriers that would tend to push down the fatality rate.

 

Lots of good points.  Let's also remember that we do not know the extent of lasting damage in the survivors.

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13 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Italy coming in with another record day.  More than 5,300 new cases in 24 hours, which is the highest for any nation on any single day, and beat its own record by almost 2,000.  New deaths were slightly better at 427 vs 475 yesterday, but the lockdown hasn't slowed anything down yet.  The fatality rate for confirmed cases is 8.3%, or 43.4% of resolved cases.

 

I would guess... and maybe I am completely wrong, that the "curve" hasn't had a chance to flatten yet. So, if it is 6 days of asymptomatic symptoms... add 6 days from the measures to see the curve flattening... PLUS, probably another 5-6 days on top of that of people with early, mild disease that did not realize it could possibly be covid-19.

 

I would hope that the USA is 6 days "ahead" of Italy in that regard, but who really knows.

 

If you want to really get freaked out, go to Youtube and "JAMA" podcast, an interview with the director of ICU in Northern Italy and he basically said "Let's be honest, the lockdown just started and we don't know when the cases can start to flatten", so, the lockdown for sure slowed things down but we just don't know yet.

 

That is why I am a bit concerned, with how big the USA is, that we may see something like the curve flattening at 10,000 cases per day or even 20,000 cases per day, and that may last for something like 30-45 days, then start tapering down.

 

I also, and maybe am wrong here, believe that with China, they took such drastic measures, that we can't really think that will be the case here. We can only hope places which have more rural populations can isolate better and stop the spread that way more naturally.

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23 minutes ago, IAGuy39 said:

 

I would guess... and maybe I am completely wrong, that the "curve" hasn't had a chance to flatten yet. So, if it is 6 days of asymptomatic symptoms... add 6 days from the measures to see the curve flattening... PLUS, probably another 5-6 days on top of that of people with early, mild disease that did not realize it could possibly be covid-19.

 

I would hope that the USA is 6 days "ahead" of Italy in that regard, but who really knows.

 

If you want to really get freaked out, go to Youtube and "JAMA" podcast, an interview with the director of ICU in Northern Italy and he basically said "Let's be honest, the lockdown just started and we don't know when the cases can start to flatten", so, the lockdown for sure slowed things down but we just don't know yet.

 

That is why I am a bit concerned, with how big the USA is, that we may see something like the curve flattening at 10,000 cases per day or even 20,000 cases per day, and that may last for something like 30-45 days, then start tapering down.

 

I also, and maybe am wrong here, believe that with China, they took such drastic measures, that we can't really think that will be the case here. We can only hope places which have more rural populations can isolate better and stop the spread that way more naturally.

 

A lot of people are apparently still violating the lockdown in Italy just as they are in most other nations.  I think Italy's lockdown has more or less been in place for about 10 days.  If they don't see a decline begin soon, it's bad news for almost everywhere.  There are so many assumptions with China, it's hard to know what the truth is.  Their numbers are almost definitely not true, but even if they are and their very draconian measures have been effective, there's a limit to how much life can go back to normal so long as people can still travel there and potentially create new outbreaks.  That's why I think we're looking at months of this.  It has to burn out everywhere before things can start getting back to normal.

Edited by jonoh81

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Just now, jonoh81 said:

 

A lot of people are apparently still violating the lockdown in Italy just as they are in most other nations.  I think Italy's lockdown has more or less been in place for about 10 days.  If they don't seen a decline begin soon, it's bad news for almost everywhere.  There are so many assumptions with China, it's hard to know what the truth is.  Their numbers are almost definitely not true, but even if they are and their very draconian measures have been effective, there's a limit to how much life can go back to normal so long as people can still travel there and potentially create new outbreaks.  That's why I think we're looking at months of this.  It has to burn out everywhere before things can start getting back to normal.

 

I agree 100%

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37 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

Where are you getting this 10:1 ratio from?  Dr. Acton estimated that 117,000 Ohioans were infected when there were still only 5 confirmed cases.

 

Tbf, she walked back her "guesstimate."


Very Stable Genius

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35 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

That was based on an assumption of typical epidemiology regarding 2 cases of community spread, not any actual data.  Other studies have suggested up to a 10:1 ratio of confirmed/unconfirmed.  I guess it depends on what you want to believe.  I haven't seen much evidence for there being 100K+ Ohio cases.  20% of cases have typically been severe, so where are those 20K+ people needing hospitalization?

 

I don't believe the 100K number either.  My point is that everything is a wild guess, including the 10:1 estimate.  Even the 20% of cases being severe could be a gross overestimate since we don't know how many people are undetected.  Until we test a random sample of a population, we have no idea.  I wish we would do that so we could get some accurate statistics.

Edited by jam40jeff

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2 hours ago, Cleburger said:

C'mon bro!  Let's party!  

 

 

 

I'm sad to report that Green Hat Bro is an employee at a bar in OTR.

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No sign of this slowing down in Ohio yet. Quite the opposite......

 

EDIT: although someone always has it worse....

And, my take on Twitter....

 

 

Edited by KJP

"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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17 minutes ago, KJP said:

No sign of this slowing down in Ohio yet. Quite the opposite......

 

 

This is going to continue to climb and to the earlier point, yes its doubling faster due to minimal testing last week.  However, i think Ohio is positioned quite well for numerous reasons:

 

1.) We have tons of hospital beds and great systems.  I would imagine the players like CCF, UH, OhioHealth, Univ of Cincy as back up spaces already planned. 

2.) Ohio is a pretty family oriented state. our singles scene and nightlife scene is much more relaxed than places like NYC and Miami.  I think we are a state that when governor stays in, the majority will adhere.  There isnt this attitude of "oh i have to keep going out".  If you have kids, you probably had your personal gameplan ready to go.  That plays tremendously to Ohios advantage.  

3.) Our restrictions came in early and it was very structured.

 

I am absolutely terrified for New York City.  I feel like it could look like Italy.

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46 minutes ago, BelievelandD1 said:

This is going to continue to climb and to the earlier point, yes its doubling faster due to minimal testing last week.  However, i think Ohio is positioned quite well for numerous reasons:

 

1.) We have tons of hospital beds and great systems.  I would imagine the players like CCF, UH, OhioHealth, Univ of Cincy as back up spaces already planned. 

2.) Ohio is a pretty family oriented state. our singles scene and nightlife scene is much more relaxed than places like NYC and Miami.  I think we are a state that when governor stays in, the majority will adhere.  There isnt this attitude of "oh i have to keep going out".  If you have kids, you probably had your personal gameplan ready to go.  That plays tremendously to Ohios advantage.  

3.) Our restrictions came in early and it was very structured.

 

I am absolutely terrified for New York City.  I feel like it could look like Italy.

 

The relevant number to look at is number of hospitalizations, not confirmed cases.  Confirmed cases is too dependent upon testing availability.  Also, we wouldn't expect the number of hospitalizations to decrease (or at least for the growth to slow) for about 2 weeks after the lockdowns went into effect.

Edited by jam40jeff

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3 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

 

The relevant number to look at is number of hospitalizations, not confirmed cases.  Confirmed cases is too dependent upon testing availability.  Also, we wouldn't expect the number of hospitalizations to decrease (or at least for the growth to slow) for about 2 weeks after the lockdowns went into effect.

Does anyone have the time to put together a chart of hospitalized cases in Ohio?

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Some good news, although hopefully this drug cocktail doesn't cause permanent liver damage like the mix of drugs China, South Korea and Japan developed to combat the virus...

 

This tweet is in Spanish but the article appears in English....

 

 

Edited by KJP

"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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8 hours ago, freefourur said:

 

 

 

so unsurprizing. that is condoning outright murder. all these trump cronies should be locked up.

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1 hour ago, freefourur said:

Does anyone have the time to put together a chart of hospitalized cases in Ohio?

 

I'm taking the data from the daily reports by DeWine:

 

3/17 - 17

3/18 - 26

3/19 - 33

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trump tells states to buy there own medical equipment, then they are outbid by the fed. trump sez oh well.

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