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8 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The 2% rate is hugely influenced by China''s numbers, which are highly likely to be manipulated.  Other countries have seen higher rates.  Iran is up near 14%.  Obviously, conditions are very different between countries, though.  2% doesn't sound unreasonable.

Meanwhile, futures suggest the market crash continues tomorrow.

I’m saying death rates are likely to be inflated in the early stages. Iran’s death rate is 14% based on 139 cases. “Other countries” aren’t higher so far, only Iran. If anything it’s been lower than 2% in other countries. But those numbers don’t really mean anything yet. They’re certainly not firm enough to extrapolate to hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US. 

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I would bet in a place like America the death rate will probably be something around 0.2% compared to this years flu at 0.1%. The USA will keep buying time as much as possible to delay and get more ready but it's coming.

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I read in Iran they have a reporting problem in regards to cases, they probably aren't reporting infection rates correctly due to rural nature and also the culture of the country where they aren't pounding on doors trying to figure out who is sick. So, the death rate seems much higher... probably... than what it really is.

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19 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

Chase Sapphire Reserve gives you travel insurance included (up to a certain dollar amount, I think), though they recently upped their annual fee.


I can’t find where I read it, but credit card travel insurance won’t cover you if you decide to stay home because of an epidemic. If the State Dept. prohibited

you from going it would be a different story (I think).

 

I agree that’s its far too early to tell what the mortality rate will end up being...but it’s interesting to me that it seems not to affect children so far.

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Several government officials in Iran have tested positive for Coronavirus.  A historian and cleric just passed away at 81 from it and a VP has just now tested positive.  I would wonder how long the coronavirus has been in Iran. The theocrats are very old there.  This disease could topple Iran and of course Trump will take the credit. 
   

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Japan is reporting its first case of reinfection of someone that had previously recovered.  

 

As for the fatality rate, I would agree some of the numbers are too small to really get an accurate average.  We probably won't have one until it spread further to more countries and more people.  In Wuhan, it was 2%-4%, but in the rest of China, it's been about 0.7% (which is still 7x higher than the normal flu).  But those numbers are overall.  Obviously certain demographics are higher particularly among those who are older or who already have health issues.  We also haven't seen a lot of the 3rd World dealing with it yet.  If it can survive warmer climates, like with most diseases, the infection and fatality rates could also be higher.  We also just don't have a lot of information on how exactly it spreads, which will also ultimately affect infection rates.  Just a lot of unknowns right now.

Edited by jonoh81

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1 minute ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

 

The biggest worry for the US is probably not fatalities, but rather just how badly the current government will botch the response.  

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Iran’s Vice president Massoumeh Ebtekar has been tested positive to #Coronavirus. Ebtekar was present at yesterday’s cabinet meeting, sitting not far from President Rouhani. 2 Mps and a deputy health minister have said in past days that they have been infected. https://t.co/kMKUGbmaLX

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While these publications argue vociferously against conspiracy theories you can absolutely bet that every intelligence agency on earth is considering just that. 

 

Scientists ‘strongly condemn’ rumors and conspiracy theories about origin of coronavirus outbreak

By Jon CohenFeb. 19, 2020 , 7:00 AM

 

A group of 27 prominent public health scientists from outside China is pushing back against a steady stream of stories and even a scientific paper suggesting a laboratory in Wuhan, China, may be the origin of the outbreak of COVID-19. “The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins,” the scientists, from nine countries, write in a statement published online by The Lancet yesterday.

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus

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Is a single Trump supporter going to comment on Trump's incoherent presser and the appointment of Pence as coronavirus czar or are they back to "bury head in sand" mode?


Very Stable Genius

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I believe that trump is pushing his supporters to vent that anyone non-trump is hyping this (“gleefully”) in order to make the stock market go down and ergo make trump look bad.  The grievances never stop with trump. 
  The nice thing for trump is when this gets much worse, he can then decide to choose ivanka as his next vp.  Wouldn’t everyone want her as the vp?!?

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Trump's problem is that he treats everything as a PR issue rather than actually handling the situation.  In this case, I think he is making things worse. 

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4 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

Is a single Trump supporter going to comment on Trump's incoherent presser and the appointment of Pence as coronavirus czar or are they back to "bury head in sand" mode?

 

I'm not a Trump supporter per se, although I do consider him to be relatively harmless compared to any Demoncrat.  But since that probably qualifies me as a "Trump supporter" in these parts, I'll say this.  Pence is being set up to take the fall.  I can't see any other scenario that makes sense.  COVID-19 is likely to kill several million people in the U.S., give or take.  Someone's head will roll, and apparently it has been decided that that head will be his.  There is NOTHING he can realistically do.  Closing the borders completely, a month ago, would probably have stopped COVID-19, but at the expense of triggering a worldwide recession that might well have killed more people than COVID-19 will.  There is now at least the beginnings of person-to-person spread here, and it can spread well before symptoms appear.  Hence, it is uncontainable.  What's going to happen is that everyone in the US is going to get sick, the great majority will recover, but somewhere around 1-5% will have serious and/or permanent complications up to and including death.  Most, based on current information, will be members of one or more of the following:  (a) middle-aged and older folks; (b) people with chronic conditions such as hypertension or diabetes; and (c) healthcare workers who are exposed to a drastically higher viral load than most anyone else.  Now, even in those groups (and I'm in two of them), most will recover, but upwards of 10% or more of those are likely to die.  There was never anything Pence, or Trump, or Obama, or any other politician, could ever have done about it.  Sometimes sh*t happens.  I wish it weren't that way, but it is. 

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6 minutes ago, jtadams said:

 

I'm not a Trump supporter per se, although I do consider him to be relatively harmless compared to any Demoncrat.  But since that probably qualifies me as a "Trump supporter" in these parts, I'll say this.  Pence is being set up to take the fall.  I can't see any other scenario that makes sense.  COVID-19 is likely to kill several million people in the U.S., give or take.  Someone's head will roll, and apparently it has been decided that that head will be his.  There is NOTHING he can realistically do.  Closing the borders completely, a month ago, would probably have stopped COVID-19, but at the expense of triggering a worldwide recession that might well have killed more people than COVID-19 will.  There is now at least the beginnings of person-to-person spread here, and it can spread well before symptoms appear.  Hence, it is uncontainable.  What's going to happen is that everyone in the US is going to get sick, the great majority will recover, but somewhere around 1-5% will have serious and/or permanent complications up to and including death.  Most, based on current information, will be members of one or more of the following:  (a) middle-aged and older folks; (b) people with chronic conditions such as hypertension or diabetes; and (c) healthcare workers who are exposed to a drastically higher viral load than most anyone else.  Now, even in those groups (and I'm in two of them), most will recover, but upwards of 10% or more of those are likely to die.  There was never anything Pence, or Trump, or Obama, or any other politician, could ever have done about it.  Sometimes sh*t happens.  I wish it weren't that way, but it is. 

 

Oh, there is a lot to unpack here. 

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1 minute ago, jtadams said:

 

I'm not a Trump supporter per se, although I do consider him to be relatively harmless compared to any Demoncrat.  But since that probably qualifies me as a "Trump supporter" in these parts, I'll say this.  Pence is being set up to take the fall.  I can't see any other scenario that makes sense.  COVID-19 is likely to kill several million people in the U.S., give or take.  Someone's head will roll, and apparently it has been decided that that head will be his.  There is NOTHING he can realistically do.  Closing the borders completely, a month ago, would probably have stopped COVID-19, but at the expense of triggering a worldwide recession that might well have killed more people than COVID-19 will.  There is now at least the beginnings of person-to-person spread here, and it can spread well before symptoms appear.  Hence, it is uncontainable.  What's going to happen is that everyone in the US is going to get sick, the great majority will recover, but somewhere around 1-5% will have serious and/or permanent complications up to and including death.  Most, based on current information, will be members of one or more of the following:  (a) middle-aged and older folks; (b) people with chronic conditions such as hypertension or diabetes; and (c) healthcare workers who are exposed to a drastically higher viral load than most anyone else.  Now, even in those groups (and I'm in two of them), most will recover, but upwards of 10% or more of those are likely to die.  There was never anything Pence, or Trump, or Obama, or any other politician, could ever have done about it.  Sometimes sh*t happens.  I wish it weren't that way, but it is. 

okay, I think your doomsday scenario is (hopefully) unlikely to occur. While the virus may be popping up around the world, the rate of new cases is actually going down in China--ground zero, so that's at least good news. But you're right about Pence being set up. The Democrats, along with their reliable press agents--a k a the mainstream media--have been on a non-stop campaign to sow panic and politicize this health crisis as another method to try and destroy Trump. Hopefully more reasonable voices will prevail and attention will be paid to actual medical policies and plans from this point forward. 

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6 minutes ago, eastvillagedon said:

The Democrats, along with their reliable press agents--a k a the mainstream media--have been on a non-stop campaign to sow panic and politicize this health crisis as another method to try and destroy Trump. 

 

You are free to visit the Trump thread to see how Trump responded to the 2014 Ebola outbreak.


Very Stable Genius

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14 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Oh, there is a lot to unpack here. 

LOL.

 

millions of Americans will not die from Coronavirus.  I don't think millions will even be infected. 

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LOL @ Trumpers who think the media freakout is about destroying Trump rather than selling news.  Trump's narcissism has rubbed off on his flock. 

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5 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-on-track-for-its-worst-weekly-slide-since-the-2008-financial-crisis-2020-02-27?mod=mw_quote_news

 

I think whatever happens in terms of severity of infection/fatalities, the panic will be greater and could lead us into another recession.

 

A record single-day drop of 1,191 points today.  The markets are certainly feeling this.

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1 minute ago, jonoh81 said:

 

A record single-day drop of 1,191 points today.  The markets are certainly feeling this.

The market has been over-valued for a while now.  The Fed's been pumping cash into it to keep it propped up. 

 

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17 minutes ago, jtadams said:

Pence is being set up to take the fall.  I can't see any other scenario that makes sense.  

 

I mean, yes, sure, that's probably what is happening.  But why wouldn't Trump ALSO put someone from the CDC or whatever and...I don't know, just listen to the suggestions they have?  Are they stopping flights back from China?  

 

 

26 minutes ago, jtadams said:

There is NOTHING he can realistically do.  . 

 

Maybe, but I'd rather have an Administration take this seriously, put public officials in charge of response effort, not muzzle statements from CDC officials, docs, etc. and not lie to the people that this isn't a big deal and to keep buying stocks (so that Trump can look good for re-election).


Very Stable Genius

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3 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

A record single-day drop of 1,191 points today.  The markets are certainly feeling this.

 

This is the single-fastest market correction in history (recorded as 10% drop in value) at 6 days.


Very Stable Genius

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25 minutes ago, jtadams said:

 

I'm not a Trump supporter per se, although I do consider him to be relatively harmless compared to any Demoncrat.  But since that probably qualifies me as a "Trump supporter" in these parts, I'll say this.  Pence is being set up to take the fall.  I can't see any other scenario that makes sense.  COVID-19 is likely to kill several million people in the U.S., give or take.  Someone's head will roll, and apparently it has been decided that that head will be his.  There is NOTHING he can realistically do.  Closing the borders completely, a month ago, would probably have stopped COVID-19, but at the expense of triggering a worldwide recession that might well have killed more people than COVID-19 will.  There is now at least the beginnings of person-to-person spread here, and it can spread well before symptoms appear.  Hence, it is uncontainable.  What's going to happen is that everyone in the US is going to get sick, the great majority will recover, but somewhere around 1-5% will have serious and/or permanent complications up to and including death.  Most, based on current information, will be members of one or more of the following:  (a) middle-aged and older folks; (b) people with chronic conditions such as hypertension or diabetes; and (c) healthcare workers who are exposed to a drastically higher viral load than most anyone else.  Now, even in those groups (and I'm in two of them), most will recover, but upwards of 10% or more of those are likely to die.  There was never anything Pence, or Trump, or Obama, or any other politician, could ever have done about it.  Sometimes sh*t happens.  I wish it weren't that way, but it is. 

 

1. Not going to even bother asking how Trump is harmless in comparison to the Democrats because I know I won't get a serious answer.

2. There is no evidence to support that "several million" people will die in the US. The only way that would happen is if- and it's a massive if- the virus mutated to become far more deadly and more easily spread.  There is no reason to expect that at this time.

3. I do kind of agree that Pence is being set up here.  Trump never takes responsibility for anything, and instead of being front and center with the response himself, he's passing the buck yet again.  Though the choice of someone so wholly unqualified for the position is also arguably Trump's M.O.  If the virus gets out of control, Trump will wash his hands of it and point fingers, but if not, he will congratulate himself. 

4. It's not "uncontainable", but we're arguably not doing enough to keep it that way.

5. The only fatality rates that have been 10% or higher have been in limited demographics and in Iran, which doesn't have enough reported cases yet to make a real determination.  There is no reason to think it'll be anywhere near 10% in the US.

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5 minutes ago, freefourur said:

The market has been over-valued for a while now.  The Fed's been pumping cash into it to keep it propped up. 

 

 

True, but that's also an argument supporting a lot more down days to come.  And that will ultimately have an economic effect.

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19 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

A 1 in 10 infection rate with a 2% death rate is enough to kill 700k Americans.

 

The NY Times and others (CNN) I believe are reporting that the death rate in Iran is much higher than the death rate China was officially reporting.  In Iran, it has been at around 14%.  Obviously, there could be complicating factors such as lack of resources in Iran to treat the ill.  However, a Youtuber I follow in China has been saying he feels the death rate is also much higher than what officials are saying.   We might not know the mortality rate until it really hits countries with a free/open press (i.e. not China).    14% would be much scarier than 2%, especially considering how easily this thing seems to spread.  Assuming we still have a free press.  

 

 

  

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13 minutes ago, OH_Really said:

 

The NY Times and others (CNN) I believe are reporting that the death rate in Iran is much higher than the death rate China was officially reporting.  In Iran, it has been at around 14%.  Obviously, there could be complicating factors such as lack of resources in Iran to treat the ill.  However, a Youtuber I follow in China has been saying he feels the death rate is also much higher than what officials are saying.   We might not know the mortality rate until it really hits countries with a free/open press (i.e. not China).    14% would be much scarier than 2%, especially considering how easily this thing seems to spread.  Assuming we still have a free press.  

 

 

  

 

The death rates in Italy among able bodied persons have been extremely low thus far, and around 4% overall, with 17 deaths out of some 405 reported cases. FWIW, Italy's healthcare is average by European standards, as they rank 20th in Europe

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Here's our timeline:

 

-Trump Administration repatriated infected Americans over objections of the CDC.

-HHS then sent federal workers to interact with the infected population without adequate training or protection.

-Those workers then went out into the public with no monitoring or testing regime in place.

-Now the first U.S.-contracted case has appeared right near one of the airforce bases where this all happened.

-When someone at HHS raised alarms about all this, s/he was criticized for hurting morale.

 

The "they can't do anything claims" are laughable.  It's giving cover to a moronically incompetent administration.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

"They couldn't do anything."

 

These are the types of things that typically go unnoticed by most of the public, but are critical to our success.  This is why I usually prefer competent people leading the country, because incompetence finds the path of least resistance and destroys slowly from within.  The hiring of cronies and loyalists will have a lasting negative impact.

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Good segment on Lawrence O'Donnell tonight about what is going on.  Trump in order to limit bad news, has kept the testing kits very tightly held. Essentially, if you can’t prove someone has a disease then it shouldn’t be a big deal. So the US has only tested about 250 people for the Coronavirus. We could test a whole lot more but then that might give trump bad news he doesn’t want to hear. South Korea has tested about 8000 people. We are skiing(Pick the sports metaphor) with our eyes closed. 
   Yes trump is an incompetent criminal that will likely end up killing thousands of Americans. 
 

The answer seems to have been found out via the new whistleblower as to how the random person in vacaville near Sacramento came down with the Coronavirus. One of the bases that people were sent to from the Coronavirus stricken cruise ship was Solano county, where this person is. The whistleblower said the people from HHS did not use any real protection. So they are all exposed to the virus as well. 

Edited by audidave

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