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Coronavirus Pandemic

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'This might be bad': US officials finally admit Coronavirus will be a pandemic with schools and businesses forced to close

 

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has outlined what schools and businesses would need to do if the coronavirus reaches pandemic levels, which officials say is likely. 

 

"It's not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters, according to the New York Times.

 

Public officials do not know if the spread of the virus will be mild or severe, she added, but Americans should prepare for it to disrupt their daily lives. 

 

"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad," Dr Messonnier said.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-news-us-pandemic-schools-business-closure-china-latest-a9359196.html


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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It will be interesting to see how this might affect the presidential race.  It has real potential to cause a major economic downturn, which typically doesn't help the incumbent.  There is also the question of US preparedness.  Trump's taken a wrecking ball to services that deal directly with this kind of thing, and his current people seem to have no idea what's going on.  This could end up being Trump's Katrina.  No matter how severe this all ends up being, I do think we're just at the very beginning of it. 

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/kudlow-white-house-coronavirus-117402

 

Quote

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said Tuesday that the U.S. has “contained” the threat of a domestic coronavirus outbreak, breaking with the warnings of officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

“We have contained this, I won’t say airtight but pretty close to airtight,” Kudlow told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on Tuesday afternoon.

 

I feel comforted now.


Very Stable Genius

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29 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

It will be interesting to see how this might affect the presidential race.  It has real potential to cause a major economic downturn, which typically doesn't help the incumbent.  There is also the question of US preparedness.  Trump's taken a wrecking ball to services that deal directly with this kind of thing, and his current people seem to have no idea what's going on.  This could end up being Trump's Katrina.  No matter how severe this all ends up being, I do think we're just at the very beginning of it. 

 

My first thought was that, if this gets out of hand, it will affect turnout in November. That would help Trump.

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^Well trump will then have a massive grievance that the Democrats are trying to use it as a political ploy.  The problem is that this is going to effect the global economy with slow downs and outages of all sorts of products. His idiot son is tweeting that this is going to allow trump to be strong politically since its about strong borders, bring American manufacturing back to the US, and being a China hawk. 

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SARS became MARS (severe morphed to moderate) here, and there's a good chance the same happens again.   Also, we're in late February, not December.   As Trump alluded, people's immune systems get stronger as the weather gets warmer.

Plus, populations with a lot of genetic diversity tend to have stronger immune systems.   That's us, and to a lesser extent Europe and even Russia.

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9 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

Plus, populations with a lot of genetic diversity tend to have stronger immune systems.   That's us, and to a lesser extent Europe and even Russia.

 

Meanwhile, in Italy...

 

Italy warns EU on budget targets as coronavirus cases rise


Italy has warned that the EU should offer flexibility on its budget targets should the country’s sudden coronavirus outbreak in its industrialised northern regions have a prolonged impact on an economy already teetering on edge of a recession.

 

Ten Italians have died from the virus and the infection count has risen to 322. The majority of cases were clustered in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, which together make up a third of output for the eurozone’s third-largest economy and about half of its exports.

 

Laura Castelli, deputy economy minster, said on Tuesday the EU should be prepared to step in if the Italian economy suffered a severe shock from the disruption caused by the virus. The health crisis has already led officials to close schools and universities in the affected region, the last days of the Venice carnival to be cancelled and many workers told to stay at home.

 

“There are resources that the European Union can give us in relation to economic events that could lower GDP considerably,” she told Italy’s state broadcaster. “We hope we won’t need it but it’s a situation in which the EU should act if necessary.”

 

More below:

https://www.ft.com/content/15906220-57b2-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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Here's the thing, everyone... this outbreak is awful... but in developed countries the mortality rate is similar to influenza. 

 

Having said that, it can obviously have devastating impacts on third world countries and can halt the global economy. I don't think it's time to doomsday prep just yet, though. 

 

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It'll be a problem if people are hesitant to physically travel to their polling places.  The first impulse is to suspect that people in cities would be more hesitant than people in the country, but people are unpredictable so it could actually be the opposite in some cases.  

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5 hours ago, YABO713 said:

Here's the thing, everyone... this outbreak is awful... but in developed countries the mortality rate is similar to influenza. 

 

Having said that, it can obviously have devastating impacts on third world countries and can halt the global economy. I don't think it's time to doomsday prep just yet, though. 

 

 

@YABO713 I don't expect lots of infections or deaths. But I do expect that people will panic, resulting in closed schools and businesses. The 1,900-point drop in the stock market over the last two days shows how skittish people are about this.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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5 hours ago, KJP said:

 

@YABO713 I don't expect lots of infections or deaths. But I do expect that people will panic, resulting in closed schools and businesses. The 1,900-point drop in the stock market over the last two days shows how skittish people are about this.


Fair enough

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It's not worth trying to predict what will happen, but having conflicting messages from the government is disconcerting. If stuff really hits the fan, I hope that gets synchronized fast. It would be a huge disaster if the CDC were telling people to take preventative measures and officials closer to the White House were giving a conflicting message.

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17 hours ago, Zyrokai said:

My first thought was that, if this gets out of hand, it will affect turnout in November. That would help Trump.

 

I mean, this is getting really crass and this is very much in the future, but the populations most affected by coronavirus (or influenza) to the point of dropping turnout would be the elderly.  And they usually vote Republican.  So...


Very Stable Genius

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why are we discussing this? The election is over EIGHT MONTHS AWAY and we haven't had a confirmed case in America. This is dumb. Either talk about the Coronavirus or don't post here. Unless there's a massive outbreak in October this year, this isn't the place for wild speculation about how the virus could potentially affect a presidential election.

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If there's an actual serious outbreak in America in the late summer or early fall, you can come back and talk about it here. It's currently baseless speculation that people are then assuming will tilt the election in a certain way.

 

Let's keep this discussion to things that are actually happening, what countries are doing to contain it, etc. This doesn't need to be another national politics topic.

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When we know very little about the virus I think attempting to extrapolate at this stage how it affects voting in 8 months is conjecture.  The virus might not become an issue in the US directly but still could affect the economy at large. It could be a world pandemic and kill 10s of thousands or perhaps much more.  We don’t really have a solid understanding of what the virus will do in the US. 

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What we should be talking about is the fact that I’m supposed to be taking a vacation in Milan and Venice next weekend 😔

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wow. That's a bummer. Do you have travel insurance? I've never purchased travel insurance, but it seems like it may help in this instance

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Chase Sapphire Reserve gives you travel insurance included (up to a certain dollar amount, I think), though they recently upped their annual fee.


Very Stable Genius

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I was talking about (but didn't directly state) diagnoses like in Italy, South Korea, and Japan where the disease is spreading between random people.

 

Every case in America is an isolated instance from someone who was either on that one cruise ship or from people who had recently returned from China. Every single person infected in America directly brought it from China or is the spouse of someone who brought it from China. That's vastly different than a person who catches it on the subway or at a restaurant.

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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I guess this issue is not important enough for the Kush to head up. So we get Pence as the czar.  
  The press conference is trying to not excite the populace.  The problem is this is not just a “flu”. The pathway is that it is using HIV method to attack the body. So like having HIV the question is,  i don’t know anyone has or can answer yet, do people now have HIV that get ill from this. If so, then this is really nothing that we’ve ever seen since relapse will always be a concern. Hong Kong doctors are saying 14% of people that survived the first time are testing positive again for it. That is really the big issue in my mind with this. 

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15 minutes ago, audidave said:

I guess this issue is not important enough for the Kush to head up. So we get Pence as the czar.  
  The press conference is trying to not excite the populace.  The problem is this is not just a “flu”. The pathway is that it is using HIV method to attack the body. So like having HIV the question is,  i don’t know anyone has or can answer yet, do people now have HIV that get ill from this. If so, then this is really nothing that we’ve ever seen since relapse will always be a concern. Hong Kong doctors are saying 14% of people that survived the first time are testing positive again for it. That is really the big issue in my mind with this. 

 

I heard a couple doctors on NPR today and they really delivered this message. 

 

1. This isn't the Spanish flu. 1 in 8 of us aren't going to die from this. But 1 in 10 of us might catch it. 

 

2. We should likely come to terms with the fact that this will ingratiate itself into the seasonal illness rotation world over at least for the next two years.

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1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

 

1. This isn't the Spanish flu. 1 in 8 of us aren't going to die from this. But 1 in 10 of us might catch it. 

 

A 1 in 10 infection rate with a 2% death rate is enough to kill 700k Americans.


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Lmfaooooo


This is like putting an astrologer in charge of NASA. 


And they reckon that the last thing she saw in her life was
Sting, singing on the roof of the Barbican

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36 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

A 1 in 10 infection rate with a 2% death rate is enough to kill 700k Americans.

The death rate is likely inflated right now. Confirmed cases are likely to be more severe, since those will be the people heading to the hospital. Still, even the flu kills 12-60k every year just in the US

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/deadly-coronavirus-early-69224705

Edited by bumsquare

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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2 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

I heard a couple doctors on NPR today and they really delivered this message. 

 

1. This isn't the Spanish flu. 1 in 8 of us aren't going to die from this. But 1 in 10 of us might catch it. 

 

2. We should likely come to terms with the fact that this will ingratiate itself into the seasonal illness rotation world over at least for the next two years.

 

The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves.  Each wave had different fatality rates.  Viruses mutate.  It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's not the regular flu either.  Even at 1 in 10, that's more than 30 million with between 600K-700K deaths at the average 2% fatality rate.  That would be 10x the normal year.

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15 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves.  Each wave had different fatality rates.  Viruses mutate.  It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's not the regular flu either.  Even at 1 in 10, that's more than 30 million with between 600K-700K deaths at the average 2% fatality rate.  That would be 10x the normal year.


To be clear, my 1/10 comment wasn’t meant to be a direct reference to any numbers/data -  my 1/8 was.

 

I can see why the context I used suggested otherwise 

Edited by YABO713

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1 hour ago, bumsquare said:

The death rate is likely inflated right now. Confirmed cases are likely to be more severe, since those will be the people heading to the hospital. Still, even the flu kills 12-60k every year just in the US

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/deadly-coronavirus-early-69224705

 

The 2% rate is hugely influenced by China''s numbers, which are highly likely to be manipulated.  Other countries have seen higher rates.  Iran is up near 14%.  Obviously, conditions are very different between countries, though.  2% doesn't sound unreasonable.

Meanwhile, futures suggest the market crash continues tomorrow.

Edited by jonoh81

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"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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8 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The 2% rate is hugely influenced by China''s numbers, which are highly likely to be manipulated.  Other countries have seen higher rates.  Iran is up near 14%.  Obviously, conditions are very different between countries, though.  2% doesn't sound unreasonable.

Meanwhile, futures suggest the market crash continues tomorrow.

I’m saying death rates are likely to be inflated in the early stages. Iran’s death rate is 14% based on 139 cases. “Other countries” aren’t higher so far, only Iran. If anything it’s been lower than 2% in other countries. But those numbers don’t really mean anything yet. They’re certainly not firm enough to extrapolate to hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US. 

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I would bet in a place like America the death rate will probably be something around 0.2% compared to this years flu at 0.1%. The USA will keep buying time as much as possible to delay and get more ready but it's coming.

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I read in Iran they have a reporting problem in regards to cases, they probably aren't reporting infection rates correctly due to rural nature and also the culture of the country where they aren't pounding on doors trying to figure out who is sick. So, the death rate seems much higher... probably... than what it really is.

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19 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

Chase Sapphire Reserve gives you travel insurance included (up to a certain dollar amount, I think), though they recently upped their annual fee.


I can’t find where I read it, but credit card travel insurance won’t cover you if you decide to stay home because of an epidemic. If the State Dept. prohibited

you from going it would be a different story (I think).

 

I agree that’s its far too early to tell what the mortality rate will end up being...but it’s interesting to me that it seems not to affect children so far.

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Several government officials in Iran have tested positive for Coronavirus.  A historian and cleric just passed away at 81 from it and a VP has just now tested positive.  I would wonder how long the coronavirus has been in Iran. The theocrats are very old there.  This disease could topple Iran and of course Trump will take the credit. 
   

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Japan is reporting its first case of reinfection of someone that had previously recovered.  

 

As for the fatality rate, I would agree some of the numbers are too small to really get an accurate average.  We probably won't have one until it spread further to more countries and more people.  In Wuhan, it was 2%-4%, but in the rest of China, it's been about 0.7% (which is still 7x higher than the normal flu).  But those numbers are overall.  Obviously certain demographics are higher particularly among those who are older or who already have health issues.  We also haven't seen a lot of the 3rd World dealing with it yet.  If it can survive warmer climates, like with most diseases, the infection and fatality rates could also be higher.  We also just don't have a lot of information on how exactly it spreads, which will also ultimately affect infection rates.  Just a lot of unknowns right now.

Edited by jonoh81

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1 minute ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

 

The biggest worry for the US is probably not fatalities, but rather just how badly the current government will botch the response.  

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