Jump to content
KJP

Coronavirus Pandemic

Recommended Posts

'This might be bad': US officials finally admit Coronavirus will be a pandemic with schools and businesses forced to close

 

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has outlined what schools and businesses would need to do if the coronavirus reaches pandemic levels, which officials say is likely. 

 

"It's not so much of a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters, according to the New York Times.

 

Public officials do not know if the spread of the virus will be mild or severe, she added, but Americans should prepare for it to disrupt their daily lives. 

 

"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad," Dr Messonnier said.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-news-us-pandemic-schools-business-closure-china-latest-a9359196.html


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to see how this might affect the presidential race.  It has real potential to cause a major economic downturn, which typically doesn't help the incumbent.  There is also the question of US preparedness.  Trump's taken a wrecking ball to services that deal directly with this kind of thing, and his current people seem to have no idea what's going on.  This could end up being Trump's Katrina.  No matter how severe this all ends up being, I do think we're just at the very beginning of it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/kudlow-white-house-coronavirus-117402

 

Quote

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said Tuesday that the U.S. has “contained” the threat of a domestic coronavirus outbreak, breaking with the warnings of officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

“We have contained this, I won’t say airtight but pretty close to airtight,” Kudlow told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on Tuesday afternoon.

 

I feel comforted now.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

It will be interesting to see how this might affect the presidential race.  It has real potential to cause a major economic downturn, which typically doesn't help the incumbent.  There is also the question of US preparedness.  Trump's taken a wrecking ball to services that deal directly with this kind of thing, and his current people seem to have no idea what's going on.  This could end up being Trump's Katrina.  No matter how severe this all ends up being, I do think we're just at the very beginning of it. 

 

My first thought was that, if this gets out of hand, it will affect turnout in November. That would help Trump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^Well trump will then have a massive grievance that the Democrats are trying to use it as a political ploy.  The problem is that this is going to effect the global economy with slow downs and outages of all sorts of products. His idiot son is tweeting that this is going to allow trump to be strong politically since its about strong borders, bring American manufacturing back to the US, and being a China hawk. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SARS became MARS (severe morphed to moderate) here, and there's a good chance the same happens again.   Also, we're in late February, not December.   As Trump alluded, people's immune systems get stronger as the weather gets warmer.

Plus, populations with a lot of genetic diversity tend to have stronger immune systems.   That's us, and to a lesser extent Europe and even Russia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

Plus, populations with a lot of genetic diversity tend to have stronger immune systems.   That's us, and to a lesser extent Europe and even Russia.

 

Meanwhile, in Italy...

 

Italy warns EU on budget targets as coronavirus cases rise


Italy has warned that the EU should offer flexibility on its budget targets should the country’s sudden coronavirus outbreak in its industrialised northern regions have a prolonged impact on an economy already teetering on edge of a recession.

 

Ten Italians have died from the virus and the infection count has risen to 322. The majority of cases were clustered in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, which together make up a third of output for the eurozone’s third-largest economy and about half of its exports.

 

Laura Castelli, deputy economy minster, said on Tuesday the EU should be prepared to step in if the Italian economy suffered a severe shock from the disruption caused by the virus. The health crisis has already led officials to close schools and universities in the affected region, the last days of the Venice carnival to be cancelled and many workers told to stay at home.

 

“There are resources that the European Union can give us in relation to economic events that could lower GDP considerably,” she told Italy’s state broadcaster. “We hope we won’t need it but it’s a situation in which the EU should act if necessary.”

 

More below:

https://www.ft.com/content/15906220-57b2-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the thing, everyone... this outbreak is awful... but in developed countries the mortality rate is similar to influenza. 

 

Having said that, it can obviously have devastating impacts on third world countries and can halt the global economy. I don't think it's time to doomsday prep just yet, though. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll be a problem if people are hesitant to physically travel to their polling places.  The first impulse is to suspect that people in cities would be more hesitant than people in the country, but people are unpredictable so it could actually be the opposite in some cases.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, YABO713 said:

Here's the thing, everyone... this outbreak is awful... but in developed countries the mortality rate is similar to influenza. 

 

Having said that, it can obviously have devastating impacts on third world countries and can halt the global economy. I don't think it's time to doomsday prep just yet, though. 

 

 

@YABO713 I don't expect lots of infections or deaths. But I do expect that people will panic, resulting in closed schools and businesses. The 1,900-point drop in the stock market over the last two days shows how skittish people are about this.


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, KJP said:

 

@YABO713 I don't expect lots of infections or deaths. But I do expect that people will panic, resulting in closed schools and businesses. The 1,900-point drop in the stock market over the last two days shows how skittish people are about this.


Fair enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not worth trying to predict what will happen, but having conflicting messages from the government is disconcerting. If stuff really hits the fan, I hope that gets synchronized fast. It would be a huge disaster if the CDC were telling people to take preventative measures and officials closer to the White House were giving a conflicting message.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Zyrokai said:

My first thought was that, if this gets out of hand, it will affect turnout in November. That would help Trump.

 

I mean, this is getting really crass and this is very much in the future, but the populations most affected by coronavirus (or influenza) to the point of dropping turnout would be the elderly.  And they usually vote Republican.  So...


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

why are we discussing this? The election is over EIGHT MONTHS AWAY and we haven't had a confirmed case in America. This is dumb. Either talk about the Coronavirus or don't post here. Unless there's a massive outbreak in October this year, this isn't the place for wild speculation about how the virus could potentially affect a presidential election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If there's an actual serious outbreak in America in the late summer or early fall, you can come back and talk about it here. It's currently baseless speculation that people are then assuming will tilt the election in a certain way.

 

Let's keep this discussion to things that are actually happening, what countries are doing to contain it, etc. This doesn't need to be another national politics topic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When we know very little about the virus I think attempting to extrapolate at this stage how it affects voting in 8 months is conjecture.  The virus might not become an issue in the US directly but still could affect the economy at large. It could be a world pandemic and kill 10s of thousands or perhaps much more.  We don’t really have a solid understanding of what the virus will do in the US. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was talking about (but didn't directly state) diagnoses like in Italy, South Korea, and Japan where the disease is spreading between random people.

 

Every case in America is an isolated instance from someone who was either on that one cruise ship or from people who had recently returned from China. Every single person infected in America directly brought it from China or is the spouse of someone who brought it from China. That's vastly different than a person who catches it on the subway or at a restaurant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess this issue is not important enough for the Kush to head up. So we get Pence as the czar.  
  The press conference is trying to not excite the populace.  The problem is this is not just a “flu”. The pathway is that it is using HIV method to attack the body. So like having HIV the question is,  i don’t know anyone has or can answer yet, do people now have HIV that get ill from this. If so, then this is really nothing that we’ve ever seen since relapse will always be a concern. Hong Kong doctors are saying 14% of people that survived the first time are testing positive again for it. That is really the big issue in my mind with this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, audidave said:

I guess this issue is not important enough for the Kush to head up. So we get Pence as the czar.  
  The press conference is trying to not excite the populace.  The problem is this is not just a “flu”. The pathway is that it is using HIV method to attack the body. So like having HIV the question is,  i don’t know anyone has or can answer yet, do people now have HIV that get ill from this. If so, then this is really nothing that we’ve ever seen since relapse will always be a concern. Hong Kong doctors are saying 14% of people that survived the first time are testing positive again for it. That is really the big issue in my mind with this. 

 

I heard a couple doctors on NPR today and they really delivered this message. 

 

1. This isn't the Spanish flu. 1 in 8 of us aren't going to die from this. But 1 in 10 of us might catch it. 

 

2. We should likely come to terms with the fact that this will ingratiate itself into the seasonal illness rotation world over at least for the next two years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

 

1. This isn't the Spanish flu. 1 in 8 of us aren't going to die from this. But 1 in 10 of us might catch it. 

 

A 1 in 10 infection rate with a 2% death rate is enough to kill 700k Americans.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

A 1 in 10 infection rate with a 2% death rate is enough to kill 700k Americans.

The death rate is likely inflated right now. Confirmed cases are likely to be more severe, since those will be the people heading to the hospital. Still, even the flu kills 12-60k every year just in the US

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/deadly-coronavirus-early-69224705

Edited by bumsquare

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

I heard a couple doctors on NPR today and they really delivered this message. 

 

1. This isn't the Spanish flu. 1 in 8 of us aren't going to die from this. But 1 in 10 of us might catch it. 

 

2. We should likely come to terms with the fact that this will ingratiate itself into the seasonal illness rotation world over at least for the next two years.

 

The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves.  Each wave had different fatality rates.  Viruses mutate.  It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's not the regular flu either.  Even at 1 in 10, that's more than 30 million with between 600K-700K deaths at the average 2% fatality rate.  That would be 10x the normal year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The Spanish Flu came in 3 waves.  Each wave had different fatality rates.  Viruses mutate.  It's not the Spanish Flu, but it's not the regular flu either.  Even at 1 in 10, that's more than 30 million with between 600K-700K deaths at the average 2% fatality rate.  That would be 10x the normal year.


To be clear, my 1/10 comment wasn’t meant to be a direct reference to any numbers/data -  my 1/8 was.

 

I can see why the context I used suggested otherwise 

Edited by YABO713

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bumsquare said:

The death rate is likely inflated right now. Confirmed cases are likely to be more severe, since those will be the people heading to the hospital. Still, even the flu kills 12-60k every year just in the US

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/deadly-coronavirus-early-69224705

 

The 2% rate is hugely influenced by China''s numbers, which are highly likely to be manipulated.  Other countries have seen higher rates.  Iran is up near 14%.  Obviously, conditions are very different between countries, though.  2% doesn't sound unreasonable.

Meanwhile, futures suggest the market crash continues tomorrow.

Edited by jonoh81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...