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In The World: China

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Interesting discussion folks.

 

I would say Scrabble is correct though the term used in China is "socialist market economy". Since the late 1970's there has been a gradual shift allowing for more and more privatization including; private land ownership. private corporations, profit incentives for workers of state owned companies, production quota independence based on free market demand, etc. Some would argue that this ever increasing shift towards free market is the exact reason for their nearly 10% annual growth in GDP over the last 30 years. It is certainly true that the central government can pull back the reigns when they want to (and they have from time to time) but not true that this is the communist China of old.

 

Hts44121 I suppose I understand referencing the PRC as a communist state but it really isn't accurate. Again as Scrabble suggested  it is a one party (communist party) authoritarian system but technically it is a republic; hence the name Peoples Republic of China. I agree it is highly unlikely for a truly communist society to experience sustained growth but China, IMHO, is no longer that experiment.

 

Carry on, good stuff.

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There are so many layers to this discussion that need to be understood. The first is probably that Chinese and Americans think differently; Americans see themselves as individuals who make up a nation, whereas it could be argued that Chinese see themselves as pieces of a larger entity. This is going to affect how much tolerance a society has for state-run control.

Also, every year that goes by makes it less relevant to put China in the same classification as the Soviet Union, because China has been adapting its economy and individual liberties since the 1970's.

I think one of the main reasons that Americans are in awe of China right now is that it appears that China makes decisions and improvements very quickly compared to the slow, antagonistic process through which Americans make infrastructure and economic decisions. I think that there is a primal sense that goes deeper than philosophical notions of human rights, that speaks to our security and ability to acquire resources.

 

I find it curious, especially lately, that Americans are so critical of China's one-party system, when our own system is in fact quite a rigid two-party system, which creates all sorts of false dichotomies and makes independent analysis of issues almost impossible, and political alliances to solve problems literally impossible. I myself was pretty surprised to find out that most other democracies have lots of parties. For example:

250px-111USHouseStructure.svg.png (US Congress)

270px-45th_House_of_Representatives_of_Japan_seat_composition.svg.png(The Shugiin)

240px-Parliamentary_Groups_of_the_Bundestag_.svg.png (The Bundestag)

I'm not in any way saying that we don't have a democracy. But I think if more Americans knew how our system really compared to others in the free world, we would be more thoughtful in analyzing other systems of government.

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Now that was responsive.  Thanks. 

 

While I would never want a one-party system, I have always been a strong advocate against the way our two-party systems operates... essentially creating all-or-nothing voting blocks on our most vital issues.

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Now that was responsive. Thanks.

 

While I would never want a one-party system, I have always been a strong advocate against the way our two-party systems operates... essentially creating all-or-nothing voting blocks on our most vital issues.

Ditto that Hts.

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Very good points Civvik. It will be intresting to see if a continued push towards more individual freedoms and liberties corresponds to less and less government decision making on the economy.

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China's debt bomb

America's No. 1 creditor holds the ultimate weapon

By ARTHUR HERMAN

Last Updated: 4:28 AM, February 8, 2010

Posted: 2:06 AM, February 8, 2010

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/china_debt_bomb_onc23nzJdiQR7gTLkrwSpL#ixzz0f3SjiW9j

 

 

'He who pays the piper calls the tune": That old saying captures perfectly America's growing dependence on our No. 1 creditor in the world, Communist China.

 

By their carelessness Congress and the Obama administration are steadily handing over control of America's economic and financial future to a handful of Chinese officials and generals in Beijing. Those who think the Chinese won't use that control if they feel they have to are ignoring history -- and the Chinese.

 

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/china_debt_bomb_onc23nzJdiQR7gTLkrwSpL#ixzz0f3SgdPUZ

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The China Bubble

 

China's economy is the envy of the world. As developed nations struggle to eke out a bit of growth and to get unemployment rates out of double digits, Chinese output gallops ahead at an 8% annual rate. This $4.7 trillion economy, it seems, is the world's dynamo and the prototype for the future.

 

Take a close look, however, and you may come away thinking China resembles nothing so much as Japan shortly before its stock and property markets melted down two decades ago. A speculative frenzy of borrowing and bidding up is at work. If and when prices crash, there will be hell to pay.

 

FULL ARTICLE: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1228/economy-ponzi-debt-peking-china-bubble.html

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UPPER LIMIT OF CURRENT HUMAN TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIO-POLITICAL THEORY

((Geometrically diminishing rate of economic return as upper limit is approached))

Japan

The West

 

 

Oil-rich Middle East

BRIC

 

Rest of Asia and South America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Africa

 

TECHNOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-POLITICAL BASELINE

((Geometrically increasing rate of economic return as you leave baseline))

 

 

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Poll shows concern about American influence waning as China's grows

 

By John Pomfret and Jon Cohen

Washington Post Staff Writer

Thursday, February 25, 2010; A11

 

Facing high unemployment and a difficult economy, most Americans think the United States will have a smaller role in the world economy in the coming years, and many believe that while the 20th century may have been the "American Century," the 21st century will belong to China.

...

Annetta Jordan, another poll participant, said in a follow-up interview that she has witnessed the shifting economic strength firsthand. Jordan, a mother of two from Sandoval, N.M., was working at a cellular telephone plant in the early 1990s as production and hiring were ramped up. By 1992, the plant had 3,200 workers. "Then this whole China thing started and we were very quickly training Chinese to take our jobs," she said. Now the plant has 100 people left.

 

"We're transferring our wealth to China," she said. "I see that as a very negative thing. When I was younger, a lot of corporations had a lot of pride and patriotism toward America. But corporations have changed. If we in the U.S. go down, that's okay; they'll just move their offices to Beijing."

 

more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/24/AR2010022405168_pf.html

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What value does a general opinion poll have as an indicator of the coming century's economic climate?

 

Me, personally, I am not scared of China.

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I don't know. If we were to drop him off somewhere in China and leave him to his own devices, I suspect he would end up in a Chinese gulag, which would imply they are indeed afraid of Hts.

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Interesting article. I never understood the issue with rare earth metals....

 

February 26, 2010

 

Consumerism 'doomed', investment forum told

Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

 

Western governments may not realise it yet, but consumerism as we know it is doomed and resource war with China inevitable, the world’s biggest fund managers were told yesterday.

 

The unsettling message, which focuses on the potentially destabilising shortfall of the rare “technology metals” used in everything from mobile phones to guided missiles, was issued in Tokyo yesterday at the close of one of Asia’s largest annual investment forums.

 

Jack Lifton, an expert in rare earth metals, said that many of the green ambitions of governments around the world — particularly ones involving wind farms and other high-tech responses to climate change — would be thwarted by upstream supply issues.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article7042598.ece


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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What value does a general opinion poll have as an indicator of the coming century's economic climate?

 

Me, personally, I am not scared of China.

I wonder if China is afraid of Hts?

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What value does a general opinion poll have as an indicator of the coming century's economic climate?

 

Me, personally, I am not scared of China.

I wonder if China is afraid of Hts?

 

See Loretto's touche response.  Very true.

 

Anyways, why are you asking questions you posted your own answer to?  (see 4 posts up).

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What value does a general opinion poll have as an indicator of the coming century's economic climate?

 

Me, personally, I am not scared of China.

I wonder if China is afraid of Hts?

 

See Loretto's touche response. Very true.

 

Anyways, why are you asking questions you posted your own answer to? (see 4 posts up).

Haha! I thought I posted that already. Sorry Hts :(

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Back to substantive discussion:

 

Western governments may not realise it yet, but consumerism as we know it is doomed and resource war with China inevitable, the worlds biggest fund managers were told yesterday.

...

Jack Lifton, an expert in rare earth metals, said that many of the green ambitions of governments around the world particularly ones involving wind farms and other high-tech responses to climate change would be thwarted by upstream supply issues.

The lead times to develop a "mine" are quite long, and capitalism cannot respond quickly enough.  The article says governments need to invest way before the need arises. 

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If we start running out of rare metals, you're going to start seeing a whoooole lot of private sector interest in moon and asteroid missions. Well, after we and the Chinese strip mine every other nation looking for shiny objects.

 

 

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Cross-posted from the Recession thread

 

China in Midst of Greatest Bubble in History, Rickards Says

 

"March 17 (Bloomberg) China is in the midst of the greatest bubble in history, said James Rickards, former general counsel of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-17/china-in-greatest-bubble-in-history-rickards-says-update2-.html

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China 'to overtake US on science' in two years

 

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_51880039_51880030.jpg

China's surge in progress could soon overwhelm the US, say experts

 

China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 - far earlier than expected. That is the conclusion of a major new study by the Royal Society, the UK's national science academy. The country that invented the compass, gunpowder, paper and printing is set for a globally important comeback. An analysis of published research - one of the key measures of scientific effort - reveals an "especially striking" rise by Chinese science. The study, Knowledge, Networks and Nations, charts the challenge to the traditional dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan. The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier. In 1996, the first year of the analysis, the US published 292,513 papers - more than 10 times China's 25,474.

 

By 2008, the US total had increased very slightly to 316,317 while China's had surged more than seven-fold to 184,080. Previous estimates for the rate of expansion of Chinese science had suggested that China might overtake the US sometime after 2020. But this study shows that China, after displacing the UK as the world's second leading producer of research, could go on to overtake America in as little as two years' time. "Projections vary, but a simple linear interpretation of Elsevier's publishing data suggests that this could take place as early as 2013," it says. Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, chair of the report, said he was "not surprised" by this increase because of China's massive boost to investment in R&D.

 

Chinese spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006. "I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent." The report stresses that American research output will not decline in absolute terms and raises the possibility of countries like Japan and France rising to meet the Chinese challenge. "But the potential for China to match American output in terms of sheer numbers in the near to medium term is clear."

 

Full article below:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12885271

 

_51889141_growth_citiations_china464.gif


"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

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This is just the latest in a long line of events that make me believe (as a lot of people do) that China's economy is a government driven house of cards.  They have real estate prices in a free fall, the government built multiple new-cities that are sparsely occupied, and have highways unfinished going to nowhere.  These photos are pretty cool though!

 

China’s deserted fake Disneyland

Dec 12, 2011 11:52 EST

By David Gray

 

Along the road to one of China’s most famous tourist landmarks – the Great Wall of China – sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it.

 

http://blogs.reuters.com/photographers-blog/2011/12/12/chinas-deserted-fake-disneyland/

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This is just the latest in a long line of events that make me believe (as a lot of people do) that China's economy is a government driven house of cards.  They have real estate prices in a free fall, the government built multiple new-cities that are sparsely occupied, and have highways unfinished going to nowhere.  These photos are pretty cool though!

 

Chinas deserted fake Disneyland

Dec 12, 2011 11:52 EST

By David Gray

 

Along the road to one of Chinas most famous tourist landmarks the Great Wall of China sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it.

 

http://blogs.reuters.com/photographers-blog/2011/12/12/chinas-deserted-fake-disneyland/

 

Here's the thing:  the Chinese government, like all of it's predecesors, is more interest in maintaining control of the bulk of its population than it is in the prosperity and well being of same.  That's cultural.  They want to have an elite, i.e Communist Party members and perhaps a small (on a percentage basis) "middle class".

 

They'll allow the latter to become relatively prosperous, but any money above and beyond what it takes for that to happen, they'd rather invest overseas.  So basically they sell us stuff, take in our money, and "loan" it back to us.  This gives them a more easily controlled general population (prosperous people are not easily controlled), influence worldwide, and access to the educational, scientific, and technological resources of nations which are far less controlled (and far more creative as a result) than they are.

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It begins!

 

China's housing bubble is losing air

Home prices and sales plunge after China's government intentionally slams on the brakes. Some recent buyers stage demonstrations, destroy real estate offices and demand refunds of up to 40%.

December 13, 2011

 

 

Reporting from Beijing— Falling home values. Debt-strapped borrowers. Real estate woes dogging the economy. It's old news in the United States, but now the air has started to leak from another great housing bubble — in China.

 

Home prices nationwide declined in November for the third straight month, according to an index of values in 100 major cities compiled by the China Index Academy, an independent real estate firm. Average prices in the Shanghai area are down about 40% from their peak in mid-2009, to about $176,000 for a 1,000-square-foot home.

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-housing-bubble-20111213,0,6222603,full.story?source=patrick.net

 

 

China's epic hangover begins

China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.

 

It is hard to obtain good data in China, but something is wrong when the country's Homelink property website can report that new home prices in Beijing fell 35pc in November from the month before. If this is remotely true, the calibrated soft-landing intended by Chinese authorities has gone badly wrong and risks spinning out of control.

 

The growth of the M2 money supply slumped to 12.7pc in November, the lowest in 10 years. New lending fell 5pc on a month-to-month basis. The central bank has begun to reverse its tightening policy as inflation subsides, cutting the reserve requirement for lenders for the first time since 2008 to ease liquidity strains.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8957289/Chinas-epic-hangover-begins.html?source=patrick.net

 

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Another good article with lots of info......

 

 

China's Real Estate Bubble May Have Just PoppedA Host of Factors Are Set to Undermine the Country's Economic Growth

Patrick Chovanec

December 18, 2011

 

 

For years analysts have warned of a looming real estate bubble in China, but the predicted downturn, the bursting of that bubble, never occurred -- that is, until now. In a telling scene two months ago, Shanghai property developers started slashing prices on their latest luxury condos by up to one-third. Crowds of owners who had recently bought apartments at full price converged on sales offices throughout the city, demanding refunds. Some angry investors went on a rampage, breaking windows and smashing showrooms.

 

 

 

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped

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This is not good for anyone, IMO. There's about to be a massive liquidity black hole in Asia, and while that could mean less of a trade deficit in the short run as some Chinese companies go bust, generally it will mean slower global economic growth.

 

The Communist party has raised money in the following fashion for its local/regional governments for the last ten-twenty years: 1) Seize land, because land belongs to the government. Pay compensation to current residents/tenants varying from grossly unfair to generous to excessive. 2) Auction it off to developers for tons of money. 3) Developers sell it to money for even more money. 4) People invest enthusiastically because of a lack of investment options/cultural bias for home ownership. If that cycle goes away, they've just lost the best tool in their toolbox, and slower growth will force them to adopt more traditionally socialist policies, offering people low-paying but 'safe' jobs to allay concerns about social stability, which will just further aggravate the liquidity situation...but they do have a huge pile of money, so it's possible they can weather the storm, as they have every economic crisis for the past 30 years. This one, however, is mostly of their own making.

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China, India skyscraper boom may herald downturn

By ERIKA KINETZ | Associated Press – Wed, Jan 11, 2012

 

 

MUMBAI, India (AP) — A skyscraper building boom in China and India may signal an impending economic correction in two of Asia's largest economies, a new report says.

 

Barclays Capital has mapped an "unhealthy correlation" between construction of the world's tallest buildings and impending financial crises over the last 140 years.

 

Today, China is home to half of the world's skyscrapers — defined as buildings over 240 meters (787 feet) tall — currently under construction.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-india-skyscraper-boom-may-herald-downturn-095904234.html

 

 

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China's housing market is set for a hard landing

By Shawn Tully, senior editor-at-large January 23, 2012: 5:00 AM ET

The numbers are grim: China's property bubble is heading for a spectacular burst, and its effect on the country's economy will be widespread.

 

FORTUNE -- The Chinese government's announcement last week that growth for 2011 slowed only slightly to a still impressive 9.2% was greeted enthusiastically by the world's stock markets. Investors also remain buoyant on China's future. They appear to be buying the official line that the gigantic property price bubble is gradually and smoothly deflating, posing little risk to an engine that's so crucial to the future of global trade.

 

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/23/china-real-estate-crash/?iid=HP_LN

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http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/11/0831/reshoring.html

 

"When adding logistics to the China price, the cost advantage of producing in China shrinks to 8 percent: $13.85 for a case-study product made in China versus $14.99 in the United States.

 

But when design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMA) software is applied to the same product, the China advantage vanishes. The China cost declines to $9.79 versus the U.S.-made product at $9.47. "

 

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A new study on China's censorship machine. Thought this was interesting, and reshapes the outsider's view of censorship in China.

 

How Censorship in China Allows Government

Criticism but Silences Collective Expression

 

Abstract:

We offer the first large scale, multiple source analysis of the outcome of what may be the most extensive effort to selectively censor human expression ever implemented. To do this, we have devised a system to locate, download, and analyze the content of millions of social media posts originating from nearly 1,400 different social media services all over China before the Chinese government is able to find, evaluate, and censor (i.e., remove from the Internet) the large subset they deem objectionable. Using modern computer-assisted text analytic methods that we adapt to and validate in the Chinese language, we compare the substantive content of posts censored to those not censored over time in each of 85 topic areas. Contrary to previous understandings, posts with negative, even vitriolic, criticism of the state, its leaders, and its policies are not more likely to be censored. Instead, we show that the censorship program is aimed at curtailing collective action by silencing comments that represent, reinforce, or spur social mobilization, regardless of content. Censorship is oriented toward attempting to forestall collective activities that are occurring now or may occur in the future --- and, as such, seem to clearly expose government intent.

 

http://gking.harvard.edu/gking/files/censored.pdf

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A new study on China's censorship machine. Thought this was interesting, and reshapes the outsider's view of censorship in China.

 

How Censorship in China Allows Government

Criticism but Silences Collective Expression

 

Abstract:

We offer the first large scale, multiple source analysis of the outcome of what may be the most extensive effort to selectively censor human expression ever implemented. To do this, we have devised a system to locate, download, and analyze the content of millions of social media posts originating from nearly 1,400 different social media services all over China before the Chinese government is able to find, evaluate, and censor (i.e., remove from the Internet) the large subset they deem objectionable. Using modern computer-assisted text analytic methods that we adapt to and validate in the Chinese language, we compare the substantive content of posts censored to those not censored over time in each of 85 topic areas. Contrary to previous understandings, posts with negative, even vitriolic, criticism of the state, its leaders, and its policies are not more likely to be censored. Instead, we show that the censorship program is aimed at curtailing collective action by silencing comments that represent, reinforce, or spur social mobilization, regardless of content. Censorship is oriented toward attempting to forestall collective activities that are occurring now or may occur in the future --- and, as such, seem to clearly expose government intent.

 

http://gking.harvard.edu/gking/files/censored.pdf

 

Interesting.  They don't really fear individual dissent but they do fear mass movements.

 

This ties into my early post.  The Chinese government values a highly stratified society, with them of course at the top and the masses being harnessed for their support.  This is, of course, completely consistent with Chinese history.

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apparantly the chinese government is actively stirring it up with japan over some disputed islands in order to distract its people from a shakeup in its leadership.

 

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They're definitely having some issues.  China's regularly-scheduled power transfer is imminent and they just christened their first aircraft carrier.  I think they're doing the island thing just to do it.  Can't let too much time pass without stirring up nationalism.  They're seeing increasing signs of a worker revolt in an ostensibly communist country.

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It's not just Japan. China has disputes over islands with half a dozen or so countries in the region. China is trying to "negotiate" with each individual country, while the US State Department is pushing the countries to band together against China's push.

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It's been a while since we checked in on China.  How's it going?

 

131022092026-01-china-smog-1022-horizontal-gallery.jpg

 

Airports, schools remain closed as thick smog blankets Chinese city of Harbin

By Paul Armstrong, CNN

updated 11:35 AM EDT, Tue October 22, 2013

 

(CNN) -- Schools, major roads and an airport remained closed Tuesday, as a thick cloud of filthy smog smothered the northeastern city of Harbin. ... Video from China's state-run CCTV showed some people -- obscured by smog even just steps away -- wearing masks over their mouths as they walked in the province.  Some drivers who braved the roads flashed hazard lights.

 

Kindergartens, primary and junior middle schools were ordered to suspend classes for a second day, while Harbin Taiping International Airport remained closed -- with 250 flights canceled on Monday alone, according to Chinese state media.

 

MORE + SLIDESHOW at http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/22/world/asia/china-smog-lingers/

 


Beijing announces emergency measures amid fog of pollution

By Paul Armstrong and Feng Ke, CNN

updated 2:39 AM EDT, Wed October 23, 2013

 

(CNN) -- With its skies regularly shrouded by a filthy film of gray smog, bringing chaos to the transportation network and forcing millions to seek refuge behind surgical masks, Beijing has been forced to take more extreme action.

 

Officials in China's capital this week announced a raft of emergency measures in a bid to tackle the problem, including mandatory factory closures and bans on cars entering the city on days when pollution levels are particularly high.

 

While Beijing is not alone when it comes to smoke-filled skies, this city of more than 20 million people has come to symbolize the environmental cost of China's break-neck economic growth.

 

MORE at http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/23/world/asia/china-beijing-smog-emergency-measures/

 

131023011948-china-smog-story-top.jpg

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For all things China that don't fit into other threads.......

 

This is from the Washington Post's news editor:

 

eric rich ‏@ericrich  18m18 minutes ago

NOAA said Nat'l Weather Service satellites were down for maintenance. Turns out Chinese hackers had breached them. http://wapo.st/11i78Nu


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Ah, the China scare.  I remember Japan in the 90's and the Soviet Union in the 80's.  Any prediction on who is next?  I'm pulling for either Malta or Texas.

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There is an absolutely perverse pleasure in the fact that all NSA personel had *all* their privacy stolen by China: http://t.co/FgYyguZZiT


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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Social media users in China posted videos and photos showing a massive explosion — or what appears to potentially be a quick series of explosions — in Tianjin, a port city in the country's northeast.  It became clear that this was a major incident.  Videos and photos posted at the links below:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/12/explosion-chinese-port-city-tianjin

 

http://www.vox.com/2015/8/12/9144123/china-tianjin-explosion

 

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/asia/china-port-explosion/

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Last I heard over 50 were announced dead. Hundreds injured.

 

Also, China is letting the market decide the value of their currency, which is causing it to lose value (so far several percentage points against the USD). This is going to cause Chinese goods to become cheaper in the world market, which should help to slow down the demise of manufacturing there as workers get higher wages and better working conditions.

 

Also, when international news covers events in Boston, San Diego, Miami, etc. do they say "the port city of Boston"? I was thinking about that the other day. Does anyone know? Or is that an American/English thing to help give you some contextual idea of where it is?

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Last I heard over 50 were announced dead. Hundreds injured.

 

Also, China is letting the market decide the value of their currency, which is causing it to lose value (so far several percentage points against the USD). This is going to cause Chinese goods to become cheaper in the world market, which should help to slow down the demise of manufacturing there as workers get higher wages and better working conditions.

 

Also, when international news covers events in Boston, San Diego, Miami, etc. do they say "the port city of Boston"? I was thinking about that the other day. Does anyone know? Or is that an American/English thing to help give you some contextual idea of where it is?

 

It makes more of a difference in China, where there is a huge difference between the economies inland and on the coast.

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