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ryanlammi

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

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Bernie is far and away the union candidate.  I believe it was in '08, the Culinary Union endorsed Obama but unions *members* voted overwhelmingly for Hillary.

 

 

"We've welcomed Sen. Sanders before (2016: https://twitter.com/berniesanders/status/700530562390298624, 2020: https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1227971693760700418) and we agree with his position that healthcare should be a right for all - a position Sanders supports and one that he has brought to the mainstream in the last 5 years - but because some of his supporters called us out on Twitter for not sticking by that position, we're not going to endorse Sanders" is a WILD position to take.


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Anyway, let's check in on the Bloomberg campaign...

 

You know, I was initially against a billionaire buying his way onto the debate stage, but paying even just a little bit of attention to him, I am fine with him being there for a debate or two.  He's not up to par with the top 5-6 candidates and will get eviscerated lol.


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1 hour ago, Robuu said:

The Culinary Union is missing the forest for the trees. The American labor movement is on life-support, and attacking a candidate with a long track record of supporting unions and labor due to one specific point of one union's negotiated contracts is ultimately shooting themselves in the foot.

 

I saw a poignant Twitter comment on the issue, which I'm not going to try and dig up: "Solidarity for me and not for thee." It's a recipe for failure.

 

Solidarity between the unions has always been a cancer eating at the movement in general.

Not having to compete with other unions all too often leads to lethargic leadership based on schmoozing rather than achievement.    Competence is optional when the only alternative is no union at all.   Plus, there's a temptation to cut a private deal with management.

 

A given time before a contract is up, a union should be able to challenge another's prerogative to be a given companies CBU.  Secret ballot.

 

This would hurt the labor movement short term, help it a lot long term.

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"Cadillac health plans" hahaha... all private insurance plans are Yugos as compared to First World coverage. it just depends on how old, beat up and rusty they are. 

 

I can see though where skilled labor is using their new Yugo plans to try and entice young guys over since it's hard to find ones that haven't been absorbed by college, neckbeardom or drugs.

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

David Axelrod foreshadowing the DNC self-destructing if a contested/brokered convention occurs.  That should go well.

 

But what did he actually say? I highly doubt this will happen. Whoever gets the plurality will be the nominee.

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2 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

But what did he actually say? I highly doubt this will happen. Whoever gets the plurality will be the nominee.

 

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/2002/11/se.09.html

 

I assume it was from this segment and yeah, it definitely wasn't how that guy portrayed in the tweet (the opposite even).  I've deleted the tweet/post because it was bad.


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18 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/2002/11/se.09.html

 

I assume it was from this segment and yeah, it definitely wasn't how that guy portrayed in the tweet (the opposite even).  I've deleted the tweet/post because it was bad.

 

@eastvillagedon see this?? Someone posted bad information and instead of doubling and tripling down they deleted it and admitted they were wrong. How amazing is that!? 

 

This is the difference between the two sides, and the difference between good faith posts and trolling. Everyone has seen me disagree with DaS on the Bernie/Pete stuff but never have I lost respect for him or felt like he wasn't willing to engage in a dialogue. I cannot say the same for the other side of the aisle. When people say the two sides are the same, don't believe them. 

 

And I'll remind everyone that I used to be a strident Republican. The level to which the party of Lincoln has fallen is tragic. 

 

Okay, I'm done ranting. 

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1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

And I'll remind everyone that I used to be a strident Republican. The level to which the party of Lincoln has fallen is tragic. 

 

I voted straight R tickets in '08, '10, and '12.  Finally started to move away after 2012.  I even attended CPAC in '08 (or '09?) when it had more libertarian roots and not whatever the heck it's devolved into now.


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58 minutes ago, freefourur said:

I thought this was good video by Warren and very relevant for this site in general. 

 

 

 

Excellent ad. She will make a great HUD Secretary under whoever’s presidency. 

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

I voted straight R tickets in '08, '10, and '12.  Finally started to move away after 2012.  I even attended CPAC in '08 (or '09?) when it had more libertarian roots and not whatever the heck it's devolved into now.

 

That's pretty surprising considering you obviously support the most liberal/progressive candidate this year, the complete opposite of Republican platforms in any of those years.  I've always been liberal, even as a kid.  My parents were pretty apolitical and nonreligious, and the rest of my family has long been Republican, so I'm not sure why I ended up on a completely different political path.  I guess some things just always seemed wrong to me.  As such, it's always fascinating hearing from people who have done 180s on their political views.  From my perspective, Republicans in all those years were basically the same as they are now, only minus the Trump cult. 

Edited by jonoh81

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I was a big R up until about age 27-28. In the years leading up to that I earned two M. degrees in business and spent some time in D.C. Between learning the possibilities and opportunities that business has to manipulate the population and visiting with lobbyist/think tank offices while working one block from K Street, I started looking at things a lot differently. Also if you study statistics enough (like nearly all Masters' make you do) you are much better equipped to wade through rhetoric that targets people who don't understand statistics.

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40 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

That's pretty surprising considering you obviously support the most liberal/progressive candidate this year, the complete opposite of Republican platforms in any of those years.  I've always been liberal, even as a kid.  My parents were pretty apolitical and nonreligious, and the rest of my family has long been Republican, so I'm not sure why I ended up on a completely different political path.  I guess some things just always seemed wrong to me.  As such, it's always fascinating hearing from people who have done 180s on their political views.  From my perspective, Republicans in all those years were basically the same as they are now, only minus the Trump cult. 

 

Well, my dad definitely leans right (though, oddly enough, is also super big into things like criminal justice reform - and not the "I'm doing this to be cool with Kim and Kanye" stuff that Trump does - and EV adoption).  My mom was mostly apolitical, or at least didn't talk much to me about it.  So my dad would just have on Hannity or Levin or whatever in the car sometimes and as a kid you just sit there and listen.  I turned slightly more libertarian in college, then kind of went apolitical after college.  Then I finally started paying more attention in '15/'16 and after January 2017 I really started listening more to other perspectives.  I mean, I freaking knocked doors (hungover) 12+ years ago for Troy Balderson and some other R hack out in Zanesville area lol.

 

So I would say it was a slow process, but also I didn't really question much as a kid.  More like, "ok, Dad believes this, and a lot of it is kind of being reinforced by peers at school, so it must be good."  It wasn't until I met other people with different beliefs and perspectives that my thought process started to change.

 

And yeah, the Republican platform hasn't changed all that much.  It's just under Trump, it's being exposed that "but muh deficits" wasn't a real thing, just a nice cudgel to hide behind to oppose helping working and poor families.  Trump also gave them license to say the quiet parts out loud about race, LGBTQ community, etc.  And they found a base of ~40% of the country, sadly.  So in that regard, they are much more outward with their bigotry and have fired up the culture wars even more (caravans, the left indoctrinating kids at school, or whatever other BS they can drum up).  But it's always been a pretty hypocritical platform, Trump just makes it more obvious.

Edited by DarkandStormy

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https://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20200212/former-columbus-mayor-michael-coleman-backs-mike-bloomberg-for-presidency

 

Columbus’ longest serving mayor, Michael B. Coleman, is backing Bloomberg for the Democratic nomination.  Now, to be fair, he originally supported Kamala Harris, who has since dropped out of the race.  In his 16 years as Columbus mayor, Coleman was known for being a mainstream liberal on most issues, but more of a centrist on business and economy issues.

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Anyone endorsing Bloomberg is...well, I don't want to insult anyone here but come TF on.

 

He leads in FL in this poll - http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_DEMprimaryFebruary13_YBN5.pdf

 

Now I am all in for Bloomberg to be at a debate so everyone can see how bad he is.  He's spending so much money on local organizers/staffers that he is starving state and local candidates/parties of staff according to recent reports as well.


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We finally have a poll out of NV - first one in a month.  https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/

 

It goes: Sanders 25%, Biden 18%, Warren 13%, Steyer 11%, Buttigieg 10%, Klobuchar 10%.

 

Of course, it's a caucus so who really knows.  We saw how off the Iowa polls were.


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https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/14/bernie-sanders-leading-texas-ahead-super-tuesday-uttt-poll-says/

 

Bernie has a slight lead in Texas (though the poll shows 8% for "others" and 6% for Yang, who has dropped out).  It also shows Sanders and Warren with the best head to head chances against Trump (Sanders is -2% and Warren is -3%).  Filter down to independents and you will see Trump is doing TERRIBLY there.  So there's a very slight chance Texas is somewhat competitive in the general election.  Not sure I'd bet 2020 is the year Texas turns blue, but stranger things have happened.


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5 hours ago, audidave said:

Excellent ad. She will make a great HUD Secretary under whoever’s presidency. 

 

Honestly, they should just put her in charge of the CFPB and make the GOP lose their minds lol

Edited by DarkandStormy

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5 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Honestly, they should just put her in charge of the CFPB and make the GOP lose their minds lol

Gotta win in November first. But I also think Adam Schiff would make a great AG. 

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New SC poll out and it shows Biden leading, but not nearly by the gap we had been seeing.  If this holds in SC, it's more good news for Bernie.  A Biden win keeps him in the race through Super Tuesday, further breaking up the "moderate" lane.  In addition, Steyer is outpolling Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar in SC and that would be more delegates not going to those three.

 

So we're back to, at least based on the current polls, a Bernie v. Biden race in both NV and SC.  Steyer is starting to pop in both those states as well, which is further deteriorating the chances of the other 3 to pick up delegates.  If those hold - and it's a big if, because polling hasn't been accurate this cycle yet - it's going to further cement Bernie as the front runner for the nomination.  Even if he comes in 2nd in one or both states, he'll be picking up delegates while it's looking like Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Warren may ALL get shut out of delegates (not reaching 15%).  I'm sure the polls are off, so one or two of them may get some.

 

A lot can change, but Bernie may be the only candidate to get delegates from all of the first four states (he may even win them all, it's close), is the national front runner now, and it's looking like Biden/Bloomberg/Steyer may muck it up enough to stop any of the Pete/Klobuchar momentum from IA and NH.  Pretty wild.

 

Attached pic is RCP average of SC with the only two polls out of there in the last 3 weeks.

Capture.PNG

Edited by DarkandStormy

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This is an interesting poll, especially in relation to the idea that a crowded moderate lane is propping up Sanders:

 

 

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I mean, I know people like to say "Well, the 3-4 candidates in the moderate lane are getting more votes than the two progressives" but Bernie remains, I believe, the most popular person in this race and the most popular U.S. Senator.  And this is after however many years of the right trying to attach "socialist" to him at every turn.

 

That poll isn't all that helpful since the race isn't binary, but it does speak to 1) the popularity of Sanders overall (as well as Biden and Warren), and 2) just how disproportionate the demographics were in IA and NH.  Of course, Klobuchar and Pete are less known than Sanders, Warren, Biden, so perhaps they still have time to introduce themselves to more voters across parts of the country that haven't much from them before.


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Wild to me that people will consider voting for Bernie - who's not a dem, but completely shun Bloomberg for similar reasons. 

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Similar-ish. Hopping between being a Republican and Democrat over the course of just a few years based on opportunism is a bit different than being a legislator who's caucused with Democrats for decades. "Not a Democrat" (due to being a left-wing independent) and "very recently a Republican" are substantially different.

 

Edit: There's also the matter of donations. If Sanders had a habit of donating to Republicans' campaigns, the case would be a lot stronger against him.

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23 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Wild to me that people will consider voting for Bernie - who's not a dem, but completely shun Bloomberg for similar reasons. 

 

Apples /=/ Oranges


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5 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

Anyone endorsing Bloomberg is...well, I don't want to insult anyone here but come TF on.

 

He leads in FL in this poll - http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_DEMprimaryFebruary13_YBN5.pdf

 

Now I am all in for Bloomberg to be at a debate so everyone can see how bad he is.  He's spending so much money on local organizers/staffers that he is starving state and local candidates/parties of staff according to recent reports as well.

 

Senior citizens.   The older boomers (plus) don't have a big problem with nanny state laws. It's somewhere between 1955 and 1970 that things switched to small l libertarianism.

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I'd like to see a poll about how many people are figuring the large soda ban in their decision on whether to select Bloomberg as candidate. I'm thinking the R that sat next to his name for so long is an actual factor. 

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11 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

 

Haha what did I say about Bernie supporters a few pages back. Everyone's the same as Trump except Bernie. Just an offensively ignorant thing to say, and shows they still don't really get how bad Trump is. Ugh, just awful

Edited by mu2010

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3 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

I'm sure ICE under Bloomberg would use people's preferred pronouns while being more efficient than under Trump.  Only slightly /s.

 

So I mean the above stats is still awful...

 

But he went from 14-24 to 18-24 on the comparison. 

 

But again, still a clear due process violation 

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21 hours ago, YABO713 said:

Wild to me that people will consider voting for Bernie - who's not a dem, but completely shun Bloomberg for similar reasons. 

I’ll vote for either if they get the nomination, but neither would be my first or even 3rd choice. It’s not about who has run as or been a Democrat the longest.  It’s about who is going to stop the cancer of the Trump administration.  Any of them would.  

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4 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

How many of these guys are out there? Like the elusive Columbus Booster Bro, which is claimed to exist online but is seldom found in the wild.

 

It's a very small amount, it's just the usual phenomenon of the loudest minorities being disproportionately heard - something amplified in the twitter era.

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Because dumbocraps are too wimpy....

 

 


"Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond." -- Coach Lou Holtz

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