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2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

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^ I agree. Biden can't just bank on South Carolina to propel him. I kinda wish Sherrod Brown would've stayed in the race.

Edited by freefourur

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28 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Biden and Warren should drop out. I don't see a path forward for them... 

 

Biden is toast, especially if his drop in support from African Americans is as precipitous as the poll DaS posted shows.

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1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

 

We'll see.  My expectations of Americans are as low as they can possibly be.  We elected a rapist and racist, already.

Well that's a fair point for the general election. But this is the Dem primary we're talking about. 

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Klobmentum is real.

 

The moderates are really screwing this up. The top two so far - Pete and the Klob - are horrendous with minority voters. Biden, who does well with minorities (well, better), is getting hammered in the first two states. He's not even getting a delegate in NH lmao.


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Travor Noah brutally took Biden down a few notches (video included): https://www.thedailybeast.com/daily-shows-trevor-noah-goes-after-joe-biden-for-attacking-civilians-on-the-campaign-trail.

 

In one of his more quirky attacks, he repeated a phrase he once said to another potential voter, "You’re a lying, dog-faced pony soldier," supposedly quoting from a John Wayne movie. Except it wasn't some obscure reference from a long-dead movie star. It was from a very obscure 1952 movie titled Pony Soldier in which there is one line in which a chief quips, "The pony soldier speaks with a tongue of the snake that rattles." (The movie also stars Cincinnati native Tyrone Power.)

 

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Sanders wins NH...

 

Those at his rally respond by booing at mocking Buttigieg.... and no one mentions it or puts a stop to it. This all happening at the same time as Buttigieg congratulates Klobuchar and Sanders for great turn outs, in turn noting how good it is for democracy.

 

Bernie is going to blow this for everyone. 

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5 minutes ago, freefourur said:

^ Bernie bros = trumpkins 


idk how and why they’re so consumed by vitriol for the side they’re supposed to be fighting on.

 

It reminds me of MacArthur’s last days as a general in combat, when many of his aides said he judged his success in relation to the success or failure of other generals, rather than the success of the army as a whole

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It was disturbing and sad to watch. It was being claimed by the Bernie Bros as being a blowout when in reality Bernie and Buttigieg received the same number of delegates and that Bernie barely won a state he should have had a landslide in.

 

Bernie Bros seem to be as toxic as some of the MAGA folks. Maybe not violent, but certainly on the polar extreme with no ability to compromise on any subject. Buttigieg has become my preferred candidate because of his moderate stances, his military service, and appeal as mayor (despite Biden knocking him down for that). You gotta start somewhere.

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17 minutes ago, seicer said:

It was disturbing and sad to watch. It was being claimed by the Bernie Bros as being a blowout when in reality Bernie and Buttigieg received the same number of delegates and that Bernie barely won a state he should have had a landslide in.

 

Bernie Bros seem to be as toxic as some of the MAGA folks. Maybe not violent, but certainly on the polar extreme with no ability to compromise on any subject. Buttigieg has become my preferred candidate because of his moderate stances, his military service, and appeal as mayor (despite Biden knocking him down for that). You gotta start somewhere.


I honestly think Klobuchar is terrific, and I’d probably consider voting for her even if the GOP didn’t go batsh** crazy the last three years.

 

The biggest knock on her seems to be her ambition? Which Idk how to square... personally I think overly ambitious and driven people have made some of our greatest leaders in the toughest moments. 
 

Einsenhower, Churchill, Kennedy, T. Roosevelt, and Jefferson were all known for being extremely driven to prove themselves - and they were some of our most effective leaders.

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1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

Sanders wins NH...

 

Those at his rally respond by booing at mocking Buttigieg.... and no one mentions it or puts a stop to it. This all happening at the same time as Buttigieg congratulates Klobuchar and Sanders for great turn outs, in turn noting how good it is for democracy.

 

Bernie is going to blow this for everyone. 

 

Bernie congratulated everyone in his victory speech and then said we all will unite - whoever the nominee is - to defeat Trump.

 

But, sure, Bernie is the one blowing it.


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3 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Bernie congratulated everyone in his victory speech and then said we all will unite - whoever the nominee is - to defeat Trump.

 

But, sure, Bernie is the one blowing it.

 

That's the piece I can't figure out... Is it Bernie himself who bothers me or just his most toxic supporters? Bernie tends to say the right things like you've quoted above, but many of the Bros are out there telling people that Obama/Biden/Clinton is "the same thing as Trump other than decorum."

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47 minutes ago, seicer said:

It was disturbing and sad to watch. It was being claimed by the Bernie Bros as being a blowout when in reality Bernie and Buttigieg received the same number of delegates and that Bernie barely won a state he should have had a landslide in.

 

Bernie Bros seem to be as toxic as some of the MAGA folks. Maybe not violent, but certainly on the polar extreme with no ability to compromise on any subject. Buttigieg has become my preferred candidate because of his moderate stances, his military service, and appeal as mayor (despite Biden knocking him down for that). You gotta start somewhere.

 

Bernie has  supporters that are more toxic than Trump's, and that is saying a lot.   As for "violent", google "Kyle Jurek", and consider that he's far from the only one.

 

If they were smart (either party) the first primaries would be in states that are up for grabs in November.   And no damned cauci before primaries.

 

 

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Maybe, and I know this is going to sound crazy, but maybe the most "electable" candidate is the one who got the most votes in each of the first two states - which are overwhelmingly white - and who also does the best with non-white voters?  You know, if electability has been a thing on your mind.

 

I will, however, point out one of these Bernie Bros since it was brought to my attention (the tweet below):

 

This guy is apparently a co-host of a "dirt bag left" type of podcast. What an absolute moron. Of course, he's a stereotypical Bernie Bro, meaning his rights aren't under assault by the current administration, his kids aren't in cages, etc. Etc.  It's white male privilege to look at this moment and say, "Nah, I won't vote for Klobuchar or Bloomberg over Trump."

 

Then again, I'm guessing these Bernie Bro types probably voted 3rd party all their life.  So, yes, there is apparently a small vocal minority of "Bernie or bust" types out there. They aren't the vast majority of his voters.

 

And, btw, we're all going to have to prepare to do what we can to get MIKE EFFING BLOOMBERG elected, if he's the nominee.


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36 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Bernie congratulated everyone in his victory speech and then said we all will unite - whoever the nominee is - to defeat Trump.

 

But, sure, Bernie is the one blowing it.

 

30 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

That's the piece I can't figure out... Is it Bernie himself who bothers me or just his most toxic supporters? Bernie tends to say the right things like you've quoted above, but many of the Bros are out there telling people that Obama/Biden/Clinton is "the same thing as Trump other than decorum."

 

Bernie knows what his supporters are doing, and that's where he's Trumpian. Bernie does and says the right things 85% of the time... but turning a blind eye to self-destructive behavior is a bad look. 

 

Literally all he had to do was address the booing and mocking, say that's not what his campaign and his "movement" are about... and I would've been fine with it. But he chooses not to acknowledge it. 

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14 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

And, btw, we're all going to have to prepare to do what we can to get MIKE EFFING BLOOMBERG elected, if he's the nominee.

 

Lol well I doubt he'll be the nominee... but the fact that we're comparing two 75+ white men right now isn't ideal lmao.

 

However, how awesome would it be if Bloomberg (with 39x the net worth of Trump) bought out Trump's debt and released the tax returns and holdings pre-election

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12 hours ago, YABO713 said:

Biden and Warren should drop out. I don't see a path forward for them... 

Warren has essentially no path at this point. She billed herself as Bernie lite and for some crazy reason people prefer Bernie over her brand. Although, she has not really stood out as an authentic candidate and made too many unforced errors on the trail.

 

Biden is an interesting proposition. He had always been hanging his hat on SC. Early on he ceded NH to Warren and Sanders since they were from the area. I think he was hoping for 3rd in NH 3 months ago. He essentially signaled he was pulling out of NH in the last debate and I think voters moved to Klobuchar at that point. Many of her voters may have been Biden voters had he tried to truly contest it. Does Amy get 20% at that point or does she split more with Biden? that is the big question. Biden is hanging his hat on SC. Anything less than 1st in SC and he is toast. If he does well in SC, he will probably pull in a few Super Dooper Tuesday states and then it will get really interesting and really muddled. 

 

Klobuchar is like Kaisich in 2016. She has centrist appeal and comes across as the common sense individual when the others seem off the rails, but otherwise is rather uninspiring and will not be able to break through in the short news cycle. She has positioned herself up for some delegates and to gain traction, but can she break through? Her path almost seems to be at a brokered convention. I think that was Kaisich's plan in 2016 if I remember correctly. 

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I think the biggest question on NH is not as much who won but what was the turnout level? 

Was it 2016 levels? Higher than 2016? 2008 levels? I think the passion of those who are motivated to vote in the primary at this state is more important than who is on the ballot. 

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Pete's campaign accosted a black journalist last weekend and threatened someone else for distributing Medicare for All literature.

 

Should we hold Pete personally responsible for this behavior?  Or does that extension of responsibility apply to certain candidates?


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Sanders's entire speech was about unity, lol. He directly spoke about uniting behind whomever the Democratic candidate is in order to beat Trump. Buttigieg gave a "victory" speech for coming in second and said nothing of the sort.

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Biden has never been strong in any of his runs for president. I think VP was the appropriate role for him. I never thought he had a real chance. That's why it's weird that Trump got himself impeached over Biden. 

 

At this point it looks like Buttigieg or Sanders may be happening. Buttigieg will take the center left lane whole Bernie will fill the progressive lane. 

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54 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

The biggest knock on her seems to be her ambition? Which Idk how to square... personally I think overly ambitious and driven people have made some of our greatest leaders in the toughest moments.

 

I think the biggest knock on her is that she can be a jerk to her staff -- although there are plenty of CEOs who are as well, so that's not necessarily a disqualification.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html

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11 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

Pete's campaign accosted a black journalist last weekend and threatened someone else for distributing Medicare for All literature.

 

Should we hold Pete personally responsible for this behavior?  Or does that extension of responsibility apply to certain candidates?

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/buttigieg-campaign-jordan-chariton-status-coup 

 

A coup to keep Sanders down?!?! Perhaps. Scummy DNC very unfair to crazy Bernie! Fix is in!?!? 

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8 minutes ago, Foraker said:

 

I think the biggest knock on her is that she can be a jerk to her staff -- although there are plenty of CEOs who are as well, so that's not necessarily a disqualification.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html

 

Yeah and from what I've read that seems to be fair. Though, there is a difference between being demanding and a jerk - and if there's a line between the two, she's flirting with it. 

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26 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

Pete's campaign accosted a black journalist last weekend and threatened someone else for distributing Medicare for All literature.

 

Should we hold Pete personally responsible for this behavior?  Or does that extension of responsibility apply to certain candidates?

When it is a one off. It does not really highlight the candidate. So while an embarassment for Pete, it does not have traction. If it becomes a theme, it will stick. 

 

The problem with Bernie is that this is a trend amongst his staffers and the campaign, while saying the right things on the surface, does not get rid of the staffing committing the violation, they stick with them. What that says is that they condone this behavior deep down, and it creates an inference that the campaign is actually encouraging of such behavior. 

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34 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I think the biggest question on NH is not as much who won but what was the turnout level? 

Was it 2016 levels? Higher than 2016? 2008 levels? I think the passion of those who are motivated to vote in the primary at this state is more important than who is on the ballot. 

 

Looks like this year's dem primary will TOP 2008 levels, with a few towns left to report

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4 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

When it is a one off. It does not really highlight the candidate. So while an embarassment for Pete, it does not have traction. If it becomes a theme, it will stick. 

 

The problem with Bernie is that this is a trend amongst his staffers and the campaign, while saying the right things on the surface, does not get rid of the staffing committing the violation, they stick with them. What that says is that they condone this behavior deep down, and it creates an inference that the campaign is actually encouraging of such behavior. 

 

Well articulated. Endorse. 

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26 minutes ago, Foraker said:
1 hour ago, YABO713 said:


I honestly think Klobuchar is terrific, and I’d probably consider voting for her even if the GOP didn’t go batsh** crazy the last three years.

 

The biggest knock on her seems to be her ambition? Which Idk how to square... personally I think overly ambitious and driven people have made some of our greatest leaders in the toughest moments. 
 

Einsenhower, Churchill, Kennedy, T. Roosevelt, and Jefferson were all known for being extremely driven to prove themselves - and they were some of our most effective leaders.

 

I think the biggest knock on her is that she can be a jerk to her staff -- although there are plenty of CEOs who are as well, so that's not necessarily a disqualification.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html

 

Now that she's had a strong third-place showing and has potentially put the nail in Biden's campaign, she'll be exposed to harsher attacks than that.  The question is whether she'll take more fire from Buttigieg trying to monopolize the moderate lane, or from Sanders who genuinely disagrees with her moderation.

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54 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Biden has never been strong in any of his runs for president. I think VP was the appropriate role for him. I never thought he had a real chance. That's why it's weird that Trump got himself impeached over Biden. 

 

He got himself impeached over the FIFTH PLACE finisher in New Hampshire lmao


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52 minutes ago, Foraker said:

I think the biggest knock on her is that she can be a jerk to her staff -- although there are plenty of CEOs who are as well, so that's not necessarily a disqualification.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-staff.html

 

I mean, her own campaign disclosed the fact that she abused staff.

 

For a party that wants to take abuse seriously, wants to be the champion of workers rights, it's very odd that she's skyrocketing up.


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Just now, DarkandStormy said:

 

He got himself impeached over the FIFTH PLACE finisher in New Hampshire lmao

 

Just to be clear guys... He got himself impeached because dozens of co-conspirators, some of whom donated to his campaign all as a part of an elaborate ploy, framed him and misrepresented a phone call that was actually perfect and appropriate.

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24 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Looks like this year's dem primary will TOP 2008 levels, with a few towns left to report

 

It's harder to read into NH turnout.  They're an open primary state, essentially.  Because the GOP primary wasn't competitive (Bill Weld with 10k votes, shoutout), a lot of the independents could vote in the Dem primary.  This likely boosted Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  But yeah, an '08 to '20 comparison isn't apples to apples, imo.  Still, that's a lot of people voting.  Should be a good sign at the very least, just maybe not the "OMG LOOK AT THIS TURNOUT" because we don't know who all these voters are.


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1 hour ago, freefourur said:

At this point it looks like Buttigieg or Sanders may be happening. Buttigieg will take the center left lane whole Bernie will fill the progressive lane. 

 

27 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

Now that she's had a strong third-place showing and has potentially put the nail in Biden's campaign, she'll be exposed to harsher attacks than that.  The question is whether she'll take more fire from Buttigieg trying to monopolize the moderate lane, or from Sanders who genuinely disagrees with her moderation.

 

I think the next couple weeks will be interesting.  Biden obviously isn't a viable candidate, but he's staked his entire campaign on SC.  I see him staying in until then, and then dropping out when he loses.

 

NV is a bit of a wild card.  There has been NO polling there, so we don't know if the race has shifted - to say, in favor of Buttigieg and Klobuchar - based on IA and NH results.  NV is more diverse, with a higher Latino (Latinx for you woke folks lol) population than IA or NH.  There is still the "Harry Reid machine" there and the Culinary Union essentially came out the last couple days against Sanders's M4A, which is a bigger blow to him than one might think.  So NV could be all over the place.  We've seen primary polling be off quite a bit - not on Sanders winning, but on the 2nd-4th place finishes.  Polls missed Pete rising/Biden falling in IA and they missed the Klobucharge in NH coinciding with Warren/Biden falling.

 

So yeah, if Biden becomes clearly not viable, that opens up his voters (who, apparently, are closer to 8-12%) to go to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, etc.  If mainstream thinking holds true on Pete - that he will struggle as we get to diverse states like NV, SC, etc. - then that opens the door a bit.  Of course, Klobuchar polls just as poorly with non-white voters.  So perhaps Biden can hang on?  I don't think so, though.  Which is what will make the next two races so interesting to me.  There doesn't seem to be a "rising" moderate who does well with non-white voters, or even non-college educated voters.  That is Biden and Bernie's base, and only Bernie has been doing well.  So will ideological lanes win out or will demographics win out?

 

Then, of course, there is Bloomberg.  He's rising nationally and could be poised at just the right time to take over the "moderate" lane if Pete/Klobuchar struggle in these more diverse states.


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9 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

 

I think the next couple weeks will be interesting.  Biden obviously isn't a viable candidate, but he's staked his entire campaign on SC.  I see him staying in until then, and then dropping out when he loses.

 

NV is a bit of a wild card.  There has been NO polling there, so we don't know if the race has shifted - to say, in favor of Buttigieg and Klobuchar - based on IA and NH results.  NV is more diverse, with a higher Latino (Latinx for you woke folks lol) population than IA or NH.  There is still the "Harry Reid machine" there and the Culinary Union essentially came out the last couple days against Sanders's M4A, which is a bigger blow to him than one might think.  So NV could be all over the place.  We've seen primary polling be off quite a bit - not on Sanders winning, but on the 2nd-4th place finishes.  Polls missed Pete rising/Biden falling in IA and they missed the Klobucharge in NH coinciding with Warren/Biden falling.

 

So yeah, if Biden becomes clearly not viable, that opens up his voters (who, apparently, are closer to 8-12%) to go to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, etc.  If mainstream thinking holds true on Pete - that he will struggle as we get to diverse states like NV, SC, etc. - then that opens the door a bit.  Of course, Klobuchar polls just as poorly with non-white voters.  So perhaps Biden can hang on?  I don't think so, though.  Which is what will make the next two races so interesting to me.  There doesn't seem to be a "rising" moderate who does well with non-white voters, or even non-college educated voters.  That is Biden and Bernie's base, and only Bernie has been doing well.  So will ideological lanes win out or will demographics win out?

 

Then, of course, there is Bloomberg.  He's rising nationally and could be poised at just the right time to take over the "moderate" lane if Pete/Klobuchar struggle in these more diverse states.

 

The dropout dates of candidates will be extremely important, too... 

 

As it stands right now, the Progressive candidates (Warren/Sanders) have about 34% of the Dem share... the moderates (Biden/Bloomberg/Klobuchar/Buttigieg) have about 54% of the Dem share... 

 

If the centrists stay in too long, and Warren drops out, Bernie might be able to consolidate a lot early on... but we shall see. 

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

The 538 model (which, fwiw, I don't think is all that good) projects Sanders with a 37% chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates.  No One has a 36% chance - meaning a brokered convention.  And they still list Biden at 17%, which seems a bit too high to me.

 

Speaking of lack of Nevada polling - there have been just 3 polls there since Thanksgiving, and none since Jan. 14th.  Just crazy.  Jon Ralston has historically nailed Nevada - both in '16 and '18, and going back more than that as well.  Even he doesn't have a projection out at this time.


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5 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

The dropout dates of candidates will be extremely important, too... 

 

As it stands right now, the Progressive candidates (Warren/Sanders) have about 34% of the Dem share... the moderates (Biden/Bloomberg/Klobuchar/Buttigieg) have about 54% of the Dem share... 

 

If the centrists stay in too long, and Warren drops out, Bernie might be able to consolidate a lot early on... but we shall see. 

 

Well, considering The Klob way outperformed in NH and Warren underperformed, I'm not so sure we can isolate voters by ideological lanes.  Seems like a lot of Warren supporters ended up voting for Klobuchar.  Voters 2nd choice do not always match up ideologically.

 

Through the first two states, Warren/Sanders have gotten ~200k votes.  Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Biden have gotten ~240k votes.  And that's before counting Bloomberg who is certainly trying to make a play in that moderate lane - which is why I said last night that I think the moderates are kind of screwing this up.  They *probably* have the voters to beat Bernie if they would coalesce around one candidate.  But 3 or 4 candidates is mucking it up, numbers-wise.

 

Yang got 17k+ votes through two states but is now out.  He was around 3-4% nationally.  That's not insignificant in a race this tight.  Although he has signaled he may endorse Bernie, I don't know that his voters will go that route.  They seem more libertarian, not traditionally political, 3rd party voter types.

 

I'm less certain about Warren dropping out and endorsing Sanders.  She signaled in her speech last night support for Klobuchar - which may be a preview of her prioritizing identity politics over her positions, if she does.  Of course, her campaign put out that memo yesterday about her being a viable 3rd choice ready to sweep in when/if Pete falters and...I don't know, somehow is best poised to overtake Bernie?  It was weird.  I thought she'd get out before Super Tuesday if she continued to come in 3rd/4th to avoid the embarrassment of losing her home state.  The memo made it seem like she'd stay in until Super Tuesday, though.

 

I think with the uncertainty around NV (and even some around SC with Biden dropping like a rock), we're likely to see the top 5 stay in it for awhile - at least the next two states.  Even Steyer has had good showings in recent SC polls (LOL)!  Deval Patrick is likely to drop out today, joining Yang and Bennet.  That would, mercifully, get us down to 7 candidates and 1 of those 7 is Tulsi Gabbard, who seems to basically be doing Donald Trump's work for him in this primary.  I suppose she could stick around and continue to pick up 2-3% for...reasons?


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14 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

The dropout dates of candidates will be extremely important, too... 

 

As it stands right now, the Progressive candidates (Warren/Sanders) have about 34% of the Dem share... the moderates (Biden/Bloomberg/Klobuchar/Buttigieg) have about 54% of the Dem share... 

 

If the centrists stay in too long, and Warren drops out, Bernie might be able to consolidate a lot early on... but we shall see. 

 

This is very important.  I think the GOP ended up with Trump as the nominee because too many alternative candidates remained in too long.  Therefore, the 60% that didn't want Trump got split rather being able to consolidate.  I'm prepared to vote for any Dem candidate even though I'm not fan of voting for an old gut that just had a heart attack.  

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