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2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

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Just now, Gramarye said:

 

Let's turn this back towards the 2020 Democratic primary.  This is heading closer to territory where I had to remove a number of off-topic posts, including some of my own, in another thread.

 

And yes, I know one of the front-runners for the nomination is a Harvard professor, so this topic is going to come up again, and some of it is fine when connected to a candidate like that.  But let's avoid general pontificating on the value and sources of expertise and what that entitles people to do that others can't.

 

Noted - sorry!

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Count me shocked that the anti-PC crowd is requesting civility from a Presidential nominee and their supporters.  When is PC good and when is it bad?

 

Trump has ransacked the house, stolen everything of value, broken all the windows, and we're complaining that Bernie Sanders didn't immediately clean off his dog's paws when entering the house.

 

It's trolling and it's also far more accurate for Trump than Clinton.  I don't watch many Bernie speeches so let me know if he's ever said it, encouraged it, had a surrogate start it, told his supporters to beat up counter-protestors, or encouraged violence or a violation of Miranda rights of any kind.


Very Stable Genius

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2 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

Not lashing out at you E Rocc, but I'm so sick of this - 

 

Want to know why experts on a matter can lecture you on a topic? Because they're experts. Populists do not aspire to excellence, they don't crave knowledge. Rather, it makes them feel inferior so they belittle it. It's the same reason I sit there and listen when my chiropractor tells me I need to stretch more. 

 

On the other hand, in some areas "expert" opinions are quite open to debate.  I'm speaking more of tone, not content though.   Condescension.   Besides, an election is all about marketing, not education.

Edit:  this is topical because if the Dems come up with more of the same, they are almost certain to lose again.

 

 

Edited by E Rocc

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4 hours ago, Foraker said:

 

Sorry, I'm with Yabo713 on this one -- Bernie and the other candidates need to shut this down as unacceptable before it becomes acceptable behavior and leads to worse.

 

Shutting it down is not the point of contention.  It's that context still maters.  Oh, and that once again Democrats are being held to very different standards and are now the ones being held responsible for cleaning up a mess they didn't create.  When will it be the Right's turn at being responsible for their actions?

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It would be so nice if everyone below Pete dropped out, I'm really curious to see how those 20-25% of the votes distribute themselves.

 

The race then becomes a contest to see which candidate is better to represent their lanes: Pete vs Biden in the moderate lane and Warren vs Sanders in the progressive lane.

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Despite many pundits saying that Hillary ran a flawed campaign (I agree), Hillary still had 3 million more votes than Trump -- it was somewhere under 80,000 votes in a handful of counties that swung the electoral college to Trump.  How do the current candidates do better?  I don't think it's by trying to appeal to past Trump supporters; I just don't think there are that many Republicans who would ever vote for a Democrat (they're more likely to not vote than to vote for a Democrat; Yabo may be an exception, but only if the candidate is not "too far left").

 

The African-American vote was down millions from Obama's last election, and there are millions of new Millennial voters -- I suspect that the number of eligible voters in the Democratic Party who did not vote in the last election dwarf the number of past Trump voters who will be voting against him this time. 

 

Consequently, I think the Democratic Party needs to find the candidate who will best turn out Democratic Party voters.  Excite the Democratic base and the Democrats win.  Fail to turn out the Millennials, the African-American community, the Latino community -- and the Electoral College could swing the election to Trump once again.

 

Who is that candidate??

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And another thing -- I just heard Biden claim yet again that he can work with Republicans to fix Congress and get things done.  I don't get it.  Republicans did not cross the aisle to support Obamacare on his watch, why should I believe he can get Republicans to help him fix the problems with healthcare or any other issue now? 

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10 minutes ago, Foraker said:

Despite many pundits saying that Hillary ran a flawed campaign (I agree), Hillary still had 3 million more votes than Trump -- it was somewhere under 80,000 votes in a handful of counties that swung the electoral college to Trump.  How do the current candidates do better?  I don't think it's by trying to appeal to past Trump supporters; I just don't think there are that many Republicans who would ever vote for a Democrat (they're more likely to not vote than to vote for a Democrat; Yabo may be an exception, but only if the candidate is not "too far left").

 

The African-American vote was down millions from Obama's last election, and there are millions of new Millennial voters -- I suspect that the number of eligible voters in the Democratic Party who did not vote in the last election dwarf the number of past Trump voters who will be voting against him this time. 

 

Consequently, I think the Democratic Party needs to find the candidate who will best turn out Democratic Party voters.  Excite the Democratic base and the Democrats win.  Fail to turn out the Millennials, the African-American community, the Latino community -- and the Electoral College could swing the election to Trump once again.

 

Who is that candidate??

 

I have a feeling that a LOT of Trump voters have died. They're not exactly the kind of people that live a long time.

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13 minutes ago, Foraker said:

And another thing -- I just heard Biden claim yet again that he can work with Republicans to fix Congress and get things done.  I don't get it.  Republicans did not cross the aisle to support Obamacare on his watch, why should I believe he can get Republicans to help him fix the problems with healthcare or any other issue now? 

 

He's just saying that to look moderate.

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29 minutes ago, Foraker said:

Consequently, I think the Democratic Party needs to find the candidate who will best turn out Democratic Party voters.  Excite the Democratic base and the Democrats win.  Fail to turn out the Millennials, the African-American community, the Latino community -- and the Electoral College could swing the election to Trump once again.

 

Who is that candidate??

 

No one candidate (yet) ticks all the boxes you listed.  Biden does terrible with younger voters.  Warren and Buttigieg both struggle with black voters.  Sanders is...average/above-average with all groups, I guess.


Very Stable Genius

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That's the (good) problem the Democrats have, they have a wide coalition of all types of people.  Republicans now have their chips solely on white evangelical men, a demographic that will unify behind their identity, but is not growing bigger.  If they just followed their postmortem report after Romney lost, they'd have a pretty decent future outlook, instead they doubled down on a shrinking portion of the population that isn't happy they are shrinking.

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8 minutes ago, 10albersa said:

Republicans now have their chips solely on white evangelical men, a demographic that will unify behind their identity, but is not growing bigger.

 

*whispers*

Look at the white women exit polling data from 2016.


Very Stable Genius

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3 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

*whispers*

Look at the white women exit polling data from 2016.

 

Luckily non-educated white women are not a growing segment of the population either.

 

EDIT: And I reckon that that looks different after a number of mass shootings and non-responses in the last 3 years

Edited by 10albersa

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47 minutes ago, Foraker said:

And another thing -- I just heard Biden claim yet again that he can work with Republicans to fix Congress and get things done.  I don't get it.  Republicans did not cross the aisle to support Obamacare on his watch, why should I believe he can get Republicans to help him fix the problems with healthcare or any other issue now? 

right, that's not how things work now (if they ever really did).

 

the dems let the republicans make 100 amendments to the ACA in return for 0 votes - how on earth was that a good idea?

 

(and don't forget that the public option was voted down by blue dog Dems. we don't need more blue dogs.)

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12 minutes ago, 10albersa said:

That's the (good) problem the Democrats have, they have a wide coalition of all types of people.  Republicans now have their chips solely on white evangelical men, a demographic that will unify behind their identity, but is not growing bigger.  If they just followed their postmortem report after Romney lost, they'd have a pretty decent future outlook, instead they doubled down on a shrinking portion of the population that isn't happy they are shrinking.

the Republicans know this, which is why they are doubling down on voter suppression and gerrymandering. they are the minority rule. not much different from the National Party in South Africa.

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58 minutes ago, Foraker said:

Despite many pundits saying that Hillary ran a flawed campaign (I agree), Hillary still had 3 million more votes than Trump -- it was somewhere under 80,000 votes in a handful of counties that swung the electoral college to Trump.  How do the current candidates do better?  I don't think it's by trying to appeal to past Trump supporters; I just don't think there are that many Republicans who would ever vote for a Democrat (they're more likely to not vote than to vote for a Democrat; Yabo may be an exception, but only if the candidate is not "too far left").

 

The African-American vote was down millions from Obama's last election, and there are millions of new Millennial voters -- I suspect that the number of eligible voters in the Democratic Party who did not vote in the last election dwarf the number of past Trump voters who will be voting against him this time. 

 

Consequently, I think the Democratic Party needs to find the candidate who will best turn out Democratic Party voters.  Excite the Democratic base and the Democrats win.  Fail to turn out the Millennials, the African-American community, the Latino community -- and the Electoral College could swing the election to Trump once again.

 

Who is that candidate??

Who is that candidate? None of the current crop of them unfortunately. It is disheartening and I hope that the anti-Trump sentiment alone is enough to get the voters out(they now know the consequences of sitting at home because the Democratic candidate they want is not on the ballot)and to pull off a win for the Democrats. 

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3 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

Who is that candidate? None of the current crop of them unfortunately. It is disheartening and I hope that the anti-Trump sentiment alone is enough to get the voters out(they now know the consequences of sitting at home because the Democratic candidate they want is not on the ballot)and to pull off a win for the Democrats. 

 

Heh.  This has been known as an issue for Democrats for some time: generic polling reveals that "Generic Democrat" is more popular than any specific Democrat, even among Democrats.  (Not sure if that's still the case, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were still true.)  But you're correct about the anti-Trump sentiment in either event, just as Trump will almost surely rely largely on anti-Democrat sentiment.  The 2020 race is unfortunately inevitably going to be an intensely negative campaign on both sides.

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I suspect that Klobuchar is staying on as the main moderate should Biden falter.  My gut feel is that we will see Biden/Harris ticket especially if Harris doesn’t get 4th place in either Iowa or New Hampshire.  The stipulation will be that Biden only serves one term. 

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7 minutes ago, audidave said:

I suspect that Klobuchar is staying on as the main moderate should Biden falter.  My gut feel is that we will see Biden/Harris ticket especially if Harris doesn’t get 4th place in either Iowa or New Hampshire.  The stipulation will be that Biden only serves one term. 

 

I really worry about a Biden vs. Trump, the current polling notwithstanding.  Yes, Biden has empathy and Trump doesn't know what empathy is.  Put them both on stage at the same time and you'll see a couple of old white men neither of whom can string a coherent thought into more than a couple of sentences before wandering off to another topic. 

 

Democrats need someone who provides a clearer contrast to Trump.

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7 minutes ago, Foraker said:

 

I really worry about a Biden vs. Trump, the current polling notwithstanding.  Yes, Biden has empathy and Trump doesn't know what empathy is.  Put them both on stage at the same time and you'll see a couple of old white men neither of whom can string a coherent thought into more than a couple of sentences before wandering off to another topic. 

 

Democrats need someone who provides a clearer contrast to Trump.

 

Doesn't Biden present a fairly clear contrast to Trump in basically every way that matters?

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34 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

 

Heh.  This has been known as an issue for Democrats for some time: generic polling reveals that "Generic Democrat" is more popular than any specific Democrat, even among Democrats.  (Not sure if that's still the case, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were still true.)  But you're correct about the anti-Trump sentiment in either event, just as Trump will almost surely rely largely on anti-Democrat sentiment.  The 2020 race is unfortunately inevitably going to be an intensely negative campaign on both sides.

Which is why we need more options/more parties. That would also induce more compromise IMO. I am sick of both parties to the point where while I never have been a Republican, I now no longer "identify" as a Democrat(even if I end up voting for one). I hate what our non-mandated two party system has become.

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Just now, Toddguy said:

Which is why we need more options/more parties. That would also induce more compromise IMO. I am sick of both parties to the point where while I never have been a Republican, I now no longer "identify" as a Democrat(even if I end up voting for one). I hate what our non-mandated two party system has become.

 

Maybe, but you need to be a little cautious about grass-is-greener thinking.

 

Italy has one of the most low-threshold multiparty systems in the world.  There are six "major" parties (defined as having gotten 4%+ in the last parliamentary elections).  Has it prevented the phenomena that make you sick of our two parties?  If you were in Italy, would you have a compatible party to call home, or would you be seething about how six parties (and a host of minor ones, more akin to our Greens and Libertarians in the sense that, for the most part, you only join them out of true commitment, not out of wanting to take a real shot at making it into the government) still don't provide what you need, and they're all corrupt?

 

Some things arise from the nature of the ship, and some things arise from the nature of the passengers.

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I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but Italy still wound up with their Trump -- Twice. Of course Italy being a 1.5 World Country like us is also one of the few with an electoral college like us.

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If our two party stuck in the mud system is one end of the line, and Italy's clusterf%#k is the other, there should be a reasonable middle ground to be found between the two, right?  Why settle for either-or?

 

Because Italy is one of the worst possible scenarios why only bring it up? Is there not a spectrum?  Yes we should be cautious but that does not mean we should simply accept the sh##y current state of affairs and make no changes.

Edited by Toddguy

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Biden is finished if Bloomberg enters the race. I don't see him getting the nomination either way. Three billionaires running for office is not a good trend.

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55 minutes ago, eastvillagedon said:

this is going to be popular with voters--Welcome to the nanny state

 

The Complete List of Everything Banned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg

 

https://gizmodo.com/1492553664

 

Fun day to post this as Trump pitches the idea of increasing the vaping age

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3 minutes ago, eastvillagedon said:

I think that's a little more serious than dictating the serving size of a soda or posting calorie counts on menus🤔

 

And the tobacco age should probably be the same as the drinking age (it is now in Ohio). I don't really care if it's 18 or 21, to be frank, but I don't understand why it would need to be different.

 

Go ahead and lump in voting, military service, owning handguns, renting cars, etc. with that sentiment. We need to decide upon an age when personality responsibility kicks in (for most people - obviously it never does for a lot of people) and run with it.

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On 11/7/2019 at 3:52 PM, eastvillagedon said:

yay! Tulsi survives to appear in the next debate. This should make it less of a snoozefest

 

 

 

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On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2019 at 3:02 PM, eastvillagedon said:

this is going to be popular with voters--Welcome to the nanny state

 

The Complete List of Everything Banned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg

 

https://gizmodo.com/1492553664

I think Bloomberg would be disastrous for the Dem party in the election. He is a liberal who is very authoritative and unapologetically tough on crime. While he may say the right things on gun control and the environment, he would really turn off a lot of progressives. Moderates may rally around him as a suitable alternative to Biden, but the big difference between Bloomberg and Biden is that in my opinion, Biden appears to be more conciliatory and open to discussion with his political rivals on the left whereas Bloomberg appears to be set in his ways and feel he knows best.

 

I don't see him playing well in Iowa and some of the other Midwestern states as he is too authoritative, however, I also don't see the progressives playing well there either. I can see his entry leading to a brokered convention and if he wins, a ton of progressives being turned off, similar to 2016, and refusing to follow him.

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On 11/8/2019 at 10:39 PM, MyTwoSense said:

Bloomberg is no friend to minority and LGBT communities.  

 

Why is that MTS?   I have not followed him closely in NYC.   

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27 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

Why is that MTS?   I have not followed him closely in NYC.   

I would imagine it is likely to do with his stop and frisk and no broken windows policy on crime.

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5 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I would imagine it is likely to do with his stop and frisk and no broken windows policy on crime.

That and he routinely ignored neighborhoods of color.

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