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Columbus: Population Trends

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On 12/21/2019 at 11:58 AM, jonoh81 said:

Getting down to a smaller level, here is some updated data on Franklin County census tracts.

 

Top 15 Most Populated in 2018- Note that most of these are much larger suburban tracts.

1. 102 Far SE: 18,266

2. 6230 NW/Dublin: 17,721

3. 9740 Far South: 16,104

4. 7395 Far East: 14,380

5. 7396 Far East: 11,684

6. 9450 Pickerington: 10,356

7. 1121 Campus: 10,200

8. 7210 New Albany: 10,171

9. 7551 South of Easton: 10,027

10. 7921 Hilliard: 9,988

11. 8162 Galloway: 9,529

12. 6383 Dublin: 9,163

13. 7393 Far East: 9,095

14. 105 Dublin: 9,083

15. 7951 West Side: 8,890

 

Top 15 Fastest Growing Tracts 2010-2018

1. 7207 Far NE: +60.1%

2. 7205 New Albany: 53.2%

3. 9331 East/Whitehall: +52.3%

4. 7209 NE: +49.6%

5. 7533 NE/Easton: +41.2%

6. 7721 Linden: +39.9%

7. 1121 Campus: +39.7%

8. 7922 Hilliard: +39.2%

9. 7203 New Albany: +38.4%

10. 32 Vic. Village: +37.1%

11. 6230 NW/Dublin: +35.0%

12. 1901 5thxNW: 33.7%

13. 14 Linden: +31.3%

14. 6933 North Side: +30.5%

15. 7531 NE/Easton: +30.3%

 

Top 20 Tracts with the Highest Density

1. 1121 Campus: 29,218.0

2. 1810 South Campus: 26,609.8

3. 13 Campus/Indianola Terrace: 22,237.8

4. 10 Old North Columbus: 17,076.2

5. 12 Campus: 15,001.9

6. 17 Weinland Park: 14,644.1

7. 1110 North Campus: 14,229.7

8. 20 Vic. Village: 12,386.5

9. 6933 Morse Road  : 11,748.0 

10. 21 Short North: 10,710.4

11. 6942 Northgate: 10,646.1

12. 47 Hilltop: 10,612.7

13. 8163 Lincoln Village: 10,423.7

14. 6352 NW Side: 10,047.2

15. 6 Old North Columbus: 9912.9

16. 9323 East/Whitehall: 9,801.0

17. 4810 Hilltop: 9,741.0

18. 730 Linden: 9,617.6

19. 16 Weinland Park: 9,381.9

20. 1902 5thxNW: 9,370.1

 

 

Are these new numbers or just more detailed versions of the estimates that come out in the summer?

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2 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Are these new numbers or just more detailed versions of the estimates that come out in the summer?

 

These are brand new.  Census tract and block data only comes out each December. It is  not part of the spring-summer releases.  

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4 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

These are brand new.  Census tract and block data only comes out each December. It is  not part of the spring-summer releases.  

Ok.  Sorry.  I'm not too familiar with the population releases.  Does this mean we have a new number for the city of Columbus other than the 892,533 2018 estimate?  Or do we need to wait until summer 2020 for that?  I know MORPC has also been releasing their own estimates at the end of the year.  They tend to be higher than what the census says.  If their trend for their 2018 estimate continues(city reached 902,674 with an increase of 22,000), they'll probably have a number higher than 915,000 for 2019.  Why are their numbers are so different?  Do you think they're being way overly optimistic?  Or, could we see a significant correction in the census numbers in 2020?

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Some more data on the census tracts.

 

# of Census Tracts by Density in Franklin County

25,000 or More

2010: 1

2018: 2

20K-24,999

2010:  2

2018: 2

15K-19,999

2010: 3

2018: 2

10K-14,999

2010: 2

2018: 9

7.5K-9999

2010: 27

2018: 35

5K-7499

2010: 61

2018: 62

2.5K-4999

2010: 109

2018: 104

2499 or Less

2010: 79

2018: 68

 

Average Tract Density

2010: 4512.6

2018: 4852.0

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8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Some more data on the census tracts.

 

# of Census Tracts by Density in Franklin County

25,000 or More

2010: 1

2018: 2

20K-24,999

2010:  2

2018: 2

15K-19,999

2010: 3

2018: 2

10K-14,999

2010: 2

2018: 9

7.5K-9999

2010: 27

2018: 35

5K-7499

2010: 61

2018: 62

2.5K-4999

2010: 109

2018: 104

2499 or Less

2010: 79

2018: 68

 

Average Tract Density

2010: 4512.6

2018: 4852.0

Interesting that Columbus appears to be approaching a density of 5,000 persons per square mile. Also interesting is the big jump in overall tracts over 10,000 per square mile-about a 50% increase. 

 

I really hope these estimates are accurate. Do you remember(or have the data)regarding what the last census estimate was for Columbus before the actual official number was released?  I can't remember and I was just wondering how close it was. If I recall correctly the actual number was significantly higher for Columbus than the estimate, which was unlike many other cities that were considerably lower?  

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22 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Ok.  Sorry.  I'm not too familiar with the population releases.  Does this mean we have a new number for the city of Columbus other than the 892,533 2018 estimate?  Or do we need to wait until summer 2020 for that?  I know MORPC has also been releasing their own estimates at the end of the year.  They tend to be higher than what the census says.  If their trend for their 2018 estimate continues(city reached 902,674 with an increase of 22,000), they'll probably have a number higher than 915,000 for 2019.  Why are their numbers are so different?  Do you think they're being way overly optimistic?  Or, could we see a significant correction in the census numbers in 2020?

 

The release schedule is typically as follows:  

April: County/Metro/CSA population data and components of growth.

May: City population data/State and county housing data

June: State/County/Metro/CSA demographic data

September: ACS 1-Year Estimates including demographic data for cities.

December: Tracts/Blocks/States estimates and ACS 5-year demographic data that includes all sub-county areas like tracts and Census Designated Places.

 

So we won't have data for the cities for 2019 until next May.  I did a breakdown not that long ago about the difference between MORPC and Census estimates on this thread, and MORPC just seems to be doing 1 year ahead.  They had 2019 estimates out before the Census had 2018, but overall, they seem to be following similar trajectories.   I expect the 2019 Census estimate will be in the range of where MORPC was for 2019, if not a bit higher- somewhere in the range of 905K.    

 

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19 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

Interesting that Columbus appears to be approaching a density of 5,000 persons per square mile. Also interesting is the big jump in overall tracts over 10,000 per square mile-about a 50% increase. 

 

I really hope these estimates are accurate. Do you remember(or have the data)regarding what the last census estimate was for Columbus before the actual official number was released?  I can't remember and I was just wondering how close it was. If I recall correctly the actual number was significantly higher for Columbus than the estimate, which was unlike many other cities that were considerably lower?  

 

Population estimates for cities for 2009 or earlier are  no longer available on census.gov.  However, on the old ACS website, the 1-year estimate for 2009 was 773,021. 2010 census was 787,033, so not an unreasonable figure.  However, these numbers were always revised with each new estimate and these numbers were all revised upward, in some cases significantly.  The 2008 estimate ACS has is 740,086, which suggests a single-year growth rate of 33,000.  Obviously that is incorrect and the numbers were revised to match the subsequent 2010 census count.  The 5-year ACS has a 2009 estimate of 753,572, which is probably much closer to the original 2009 figure.  What this all means is that the estimates were too low and had to be revised upward when the real count showed stronger growth.  Basically, Columbus was being underestimated. 

 

 

Edited by jonoh81

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9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Population estimates for cities for 2009 or earlier are  no longer available on census.gov.  However, on the old ACS website, the 1-year estimate for 2009 was 773,021. 2010 census was 787,033, so not an unreasonable figure.  However, these numbers were always revised with each new estimate and these numbers were all revised upward, in some cases significantly.  The 2008 estimate ACS has is 740,086, which suggests a single-year growth rate of 33,000.  Obviously that is incorrect and the numbers were revised to match the subsequent 2010 census count.  The 5-year ACS has a 2009 estimate of 753,572, which is probably much closer to the original 2009 figure.  What this all means is that the estimates were too low and had to be revised upward when the real count showed stronger growth.  Basically, Columbus was being underestimated. 

Thanks yeah I remembered that Cbus was undercounted but I could not remember by how much it was undercounted.  For some reason I keep thinking that we might be overcounted this time, just because the estimates have been so good and are showing such growth...almost like it is too good to be true-especially given how new residential construction seems to be lagging and all which makes me think where are all of these people living?  I know the vacancy rates seem to be much lower than in 2010. I remember going to visit my parents and there were so many vacant properties then, and now you barely see any there.  I also wonder with so many new immigrants and given the relatively large number of people living here you that were not born in the US(something like 185,000 or so I believe)if the birth rate for that group and family size might be higher than average.

 

Well we will just have to wait and see. I hope that the stupid changes to the Census questions do not cause an undercount. 

Edited by Toddguy
grammar, spelling, etc. etc. -why do I not proofread my posts before posting????

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2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Thanks yeah I remembered that Cbus was undercounted but I could not remember by how much it was undercounted.  For some reason I keep thinking that we might be overcounted this time, just because the estimates have been so good and are showing such growth...almost like it is too good to be true-especially given how new residential construction seems to be lagging and all which makes me think where are all of these people living?  I know the vacancy rates seem to be much lower than in 2010. I remember going to visit my parents and there were so many vacant properties then, and now you barely see any there.  I also wonder with so many new immigrants and given the relatively large number of people living here you that were not born in the US(something like 185,000 or so I believe)if the birth rate for that group and family size might be higher than average.

 

Well we will just have to wait and see. I hope that the stupid changes to the Census questions do not cause an undercount. 

 

I don't know, I'm actually still thinking it's being undercounted, if anything.  It's not just the vacancy rate of new construction that's low, but also in old neighborhoods.  There have been several articles this decade highlighting how former bombed out, high-vacancy neighborhoods like Old Oaks, Driving Park, South Linden, etc. have been seeing plummeting vacancy rates.  As housing costs have gone up in the city, the relatively cheaper housing of these neighborhoods has become a lot more attractive.  Even some of the worst neighborhoods have started to stabilize.  But yeah, that will only go so far.  Without building 2x-3x more per year, it will eventually affect how fast Columbus can grow.

Edited by jonoh81

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https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/2020-q1-renter-migration-report/

 

A different way of looking at in-migration and out-migration from online rental service ApartmentList.com.  The website did a study of inbound searches (people who live elsewhere but are searching for apartments in the Columbus metro) and outbound searches (people who live in the Columbus metro but are searching for apartments elsewhere).

 

ApartmentList found that 30.5% of out-of-town searches for Central Ohio apartments from June through December 2019 came from residents of the Detroit area.  Significantly higher than the second and third ranked metros of Cleveland (11.9%) and Akron (7.5%).

 

On the outbound search side, the top three were Cincinnati (6.8%), Cleveland (5.6%) and Lexington, KY (4.8%).

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Downtown Columbus could hit 10,000 residents this year. Here's what it still needs

The pace of population growth downtown is expected to accelerate during the next three years.

 

Capital Crossroads and Discovery Special Improvement Districts publicized their annual State of Downtown report Wednesday, finding that while the center city's population ended 2019 a little lower than projections at 9,270 people, the area should still grow to 10,700 this year in 7,963 housing units.

 

...

 

The pace of the growth is expected to keep accelerating. The report predicts 11,900 people in 8,886 housing units in 2021 and 14,000 people in 10,642 housing units by the end of 2022, according to data from Vogt Strategic Insights.

 

More here: https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/02/26/downtown-columbus-could-hit-10-000-residents-this.html?iana=hpmvp_colum_news_headline

 

spoiler alert: the "what it still needs" is transit

 

Edited by TH3BUDDHA
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13 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Downtown Columbus could hit 10,000 residents this year. Here's what it still needs

The pace of population growth downtown is expected to accelerate during the next three years.

 

Capital Crossroads and Discovery Special Improvement Districts publicized their annual State of Downtown report Wednesday, finding that while the center city's population ended 2019 a little lower than projections at 9,270 people, the area should still grow to 10,700 this year in 7,963 housing units.

 

...

 

The pace of the growth is expected to keep accelerating. The report predicts 11,900 people in 8,886 housing units in 2021 and 14,000 people in 10,642 housing units by the end of 2022, according to data from Vogt Strategic Insights.

 

More here: https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/02/26/downtown-columbus-could-hit-10-000-residents-this.html?iana=hpmvp_colum_news_headline

 

spoiler alert: the "what it still needs" is transit

 

 

Some other positive notes from the article:

 

Currently, there are 86,665 workers employed downtown. The downtown office vacancy rate is 14%.

 

There are 1,000 hotel rooms under construction. Downtown has a hotel occupancy rate of 66.5%, which is close to the 70% threshold that signifies more rooms are needed. 

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2019 estimate 898,553

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/columbuscityohio,US/PST045219


 

Midwest Cities (250,000+):
City / 2019 Estimate / Change since 2010

Chicago: 2,693,976; -1,622
Columbus: 898,553; +111,520
Indianapolis: 876,384; +55,939
Detroit: 670,031; -43,746
Milwaukee: 590,157; -4,676
Kansas City: 495,327; +35,540
Omaha: 478,192; +69,234
Minneapolis: 429,606; +47,028
Cleveland: 381,009; -15,806
St. Paul: 308,096; +23,028
Cincinnati: 303,940; +6,997
St. Louis: 300,576; -18,718
Lincoln: 289,102; +30,723
Toledo: 272,779; -14,429

Read more: https://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/3158922-2019-city-estimate-prediction-discussion.html#ixzz6NGcUqk38

 

Edited by Toddguy

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On 5/23/2020 at 7:05 AM, Toddguy said:

2019 estimate 898,553

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/columbuscityohio,US/PST045219


 

Midwest Cities (250,000+):
City / 2019 Estimate / Change since 2010

Chicago: 2,693,976; -1,622
Columbus: 898,553; +111,520
Indianapolis: 876,384; +55,939
Detroit: 670,031; -43,746
Milwaukee: 590,157; -4,676
Kansas City: 495,327; +35,540
Omaha: 478,192; +69,234
Minneapolis: 429,606; +47,028
Cleveland: 381,009; -15,806
St. Paul: 308,096; +23,028
Cincinnati: 303,940; +6,997
St. Louis: 300,576; -18,718
Lincoln: 289,102; +30,723
Toledo: 272,779; -14,429

Read more: https://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/3158922-2019-city-estimate-prediction-discussion.html#ixzz6NGcUqk38

 

 

It's kind of funny how even though Columbus is growing quickly, it would still take it almost 145 years to reach Chicago's population right now.  

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2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

It's kind of funny how even though Columbus is growing quickly, it would still take it almost 145 years to reach Chicago's population right now.  

Well only one other American city besides NYC has been able to pass it. You never know though. Who in 1950 would have thought that Columbus would have more than 200,000 people than Detroit?  Or that Cleveland and Columbus would basically be trading places regarding 1950 populations by 2020?

 

Who knows, with the way Columbus annexes(per other residents of certain cities and certain editors of certain .com  local news websites that got rid of their comment section not too long ago)in 30 years Columbus might extend all the way from the Ohio River to Lake Erie, cover 10,000 square miles, and have more than 3 million people!  😉

 

 

Edited by Toddguy

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Well, more realistically, the Columbus metro population will likely pass Kansas City in the next 3-4 years, Cincinnati in the next 6-7 years, and maybe Pittsburgh as well.  Of course, population changes can shift so who knows what the next decade will bring.

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Very Stable Genius

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3 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

Well, more realistically, the Columbus metro population will likely pass Kansas City in the next 3-4 years, Cincinnati in the next 6-7 years, and maybe Pittsburgh as well.  Of course, population changes can shift so who knows what the next decade will bring.

 

You just wait...they will finally add Dayton to the Cincy MSA and then people realize how truly powerful Cincinnati is! /s

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