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Toddguy

Columbus: Population Trends

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"demand" and "markets" don't create themselves. Government investment and plans affect development patterns. If enough people WANT to make things happen in Columbus they can.

 

^True, but so does Private investment and plans and risk.

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"demand" and "markets" don't create themselves. Government investment and plans affect development patterns. If enough people WANT to make things happen in Columbus they can.

 

 

Also there are little things like zoning laws, popular opinion, elections, etc. that also come into play. People will have to want to make it happen, or have it forced upon them if they don't. Very difficult to do, as we can see with Clintonville as an example.

"demand" and "markets" don't create themselves. Government investment and plans affect development patterns. If enough people WANT to make things happen in Columbus they can.

 

^True, but so does Private investment and plans and risk.

Only within the rules that they can play by.

 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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"demand" and "markets" don't create themselves. Government investment and plans affect development patterns. If enough people WANT to make things happen in Columbus they can.

 

 

Also there are little things like zoning laws, popular opinion, elections, etc. that also come into play. People will have to want to make it happen, or have it forced upon them if they don't. Very difficult to do, as we can see with Clintonville as an example.

"demand" and "markets" don't create themselves. Government investment and plans affect development patterns. If enough people WANT to make things happen in Columbus they can.

 

^True, but so does Private investment and plans and risk.

Only within the rules that they can play by.

 

Government makes the rules.

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There are plenty of opportunities in Columbus proper for infill, but also, if the market dictates it, demo of less dense existing structures for the construction of new higher density developments. If people are demanding to be within a certain distance to High Street and all that is left are the duplexes and single families, demand and market will dictate denser buildings get built. That's already happening along High in the University district and has happened in past decades as evidenced by the 1950s and 60s era apartment complexes along some of the side streets around OSU.

 

5xNW has a lot of warehouse space (and associated surface lots) that can and is being replaced with large apartment buildings.

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sure we all agree there are plenty of places and neighborhoods that are ripe for redevelopment and building up density. however, rather than leaving that at the whim of developers, it would be a good idea to guide and encourage density along possible higher capacity transit routes. for example, changing zoning along cleveland avenue and along broad or something like that. offering tax incentives for building up along certain routes. etc.

 

at this pace what seems limitless today will not be in the columbus city of 50yrs from now.

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If we don't build rail transit the people might stop coming. Stryker's almost empty. ;)

 

I'm not that pessimistic, but Columbus does need to look at attracting people from places other than Ohio's decaying areas and Appalachia. And keeping people in town so that they don't drain their parents' bank account by demanding to move to NYC. That means rail.

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lol umm no.  its not about our beloved strkyer, nyc or rail transit per se, its about controlling development and establishing corridors. perhaps for transit upgrades at some point. perhaps not. hell it could even be a bike trail. ie., the midtown greenway in minneapolis is a great example that goes hand in hand with built up parts of town around it. or if you have been to japan or england you know what its like to walk along busy plaza areas and high streets and then walk right around the corner into quiet neighborhoods. control like that.

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Along the line of what mrnyc[/member] and GCrites80s[/member] are saying, I think Columbus could use some incentives and/or the zoning code to mix uses more. Even as density increases, it strikes me that you might live in a fairly dense neighborhood in Columbus but far from businesses. Targeting some of these areas for new, pedestrian-friendly business districts would be ideal, but it may be a struggle to get the passion of the overall community to overcome the passion of NIMBYs.

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absolutely. mixed use is the way to go. live/work or walk to work. its not like in the old days when people walked to neighborhood factories pumping out pollution anymore, we are living in a post industrial society, so we have to aggressively update zoning and provide developers with incentives to reflect that. maybe that could be done cautiously block by block or neighborhood by neighborhood, with an eye toward developing a corridor, but it should be tried out somewhere if it isn't already. approved mixed use rezoning areas with incentives or something like that. no doubt some stuff like that is happening, but it could probably be better defined and planned ahead for given the growth news.

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absolutely. mixed use is the way to go. live/work or walk to work. its not like in the old days when people walked to neighborhood factories pumping out pollution anymore, we are living in a post industrial society, so we have to aggressively update zoning and provide developers with incentives to reflect that. maybe that could be done cautiously block by block or neighborhood by neighborhood, with an eye toward developing a corridor, but it should be tried out somewhere if it isn't already. approved mixed use rezoning areas with incentives or something like that. no doubt some stuff like that is happening, but it could probably be better defined and planned ahead for given the growth news.

Agree. Especially with the zoning part. It has to start there-nobody can do anything until the zoning is in place. The city needs to identify the appropriate areas and upzone them. And it will bring a hell of a fight in many areas. (looking at you, Clintonvillains and your underbuilt High street corridor).


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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^ haha wow now thats a nice first — i never thought i’d see the day where ohioans complained about people moving in!

 

upon closer inspection a lot of those examples were columbus native returnees, but still its just another sign of columbus popularity these days.

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^ haha wow now thats a nice first — i never thought i’d see the day where ohioans complained about people moving in!

 

upon closer inspection a lot of those examples were columbus native returnees, but still its just another sign of columbus popularity these days.

 

They're the ones paying cash for the $400K+ homes and I work in the construction field so I'm far from complaining.

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^ ha -- profit -- excellent!

 

get'm up to ready player one population levels

 

then we can never get away from the sprawl, livin' in the sprawl

 

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big article in the post about ny’ers flocking to columbus:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/04/25/ex-new-yorkers-are-flocking-to-this-midwest-sanctuary/

 

Such a nice story...but why did the last five words of the article have to be "The middle of flyover country"?  smh.  Such elitism.


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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Wouldn't "the middle of Flyover Country" be Brady, Nebraska, halfway between New York and San Francisco?


“To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”

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big article in the post about ny’ers flocking to columbus:

 

https://nypost.com/2018/04/25/ex-new-yorkers-are-flocking-to-this-midwest-sanctuary/

 

Such a nice story...but why did the last five words of the article have to be "The middle of flyover country"?  smh.  Such elitism.

 

That's exactly what I thought when I read "flyover country."  What a completely condescending and unnecessary thing to say.

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^ oh please thats nothing. at least columbus doesnt get every article about it with lead in’s like ‘the city known as the mistake by the lake’ or ‘struggling rust belt’ yadda yadda that come off like they were written by the writer’s grandparents.

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I agree. Mostly what we get I would call "innocent ignorance." It's usually along the lines of a backhanded compliment like, "You won't believe this is" or "Who knew this existed in" flyover country, Columbus, Ohio, etc

 

Our reputation is just that we don't have one at all, or that of a boring, white bread nowheresville with nothing to do. Either can be corrected easily enough

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^ oh please thats nothing. at least columbus doesnt get every article about it with lead in’s like ‘the city known as the mistake by the lake’ or ‘struggling rust belt’ yadda yadda that come off like they were written by the writer’s grandparents.

 

 

It might be ironic, really. Dry New York humor

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So these city population estimates should be coming out any time now, right?


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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City numbers will be released next Thursday the 24th,

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/estimates-advisory.html

 

Thanks!


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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There really is something exciting about census releases; hard to explain why, but I'm absolutely fascinated by everything to do with population growth, stagnation, depletion, demographic changes, etc.

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There really is something exciting about census releases; hard to explain why, but I'm absolutely fascinated by everything to do with population growth, stagnation, depletion, demographic changes, etc.

 

Me too. When I was a kid I could not wait for the new Almanacs to come out lol.


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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879,170. A gain of over 15,000.  Still just barely ahead of Fort Worth and Charlotte. Over 15,000 more than Indianapolis now.


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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Of the 25 largest cities in the US, Columbus was number FOUR in growth rate over the past year.

 

-Seattle

-Fort Worth

-Charlotte

 

then Columbus. Growth rate of 1.79%

 

http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/05/24/census-releases-city-population-estimates/

 

*Renn could have at least mentioned Columbus being number four on the list while babbling on about other cities. *hmmph!*


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area?

 

I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits?

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Around 70% tends to end up in Columbus itself, so my guess is that the city grew between 15K-17K 2016-2017, putting the population between 875,000-877,000. However, because previous-year estimates have been adjusted upward for Columbus, I could easily see the city hitting 880,000 come the May estimate for July 1, 2017.  If so, the city is probably edging closer to 900,000 at this point in 2018.  At that rate, 1 million would be hit around 2025. 

 

Just want to point out how accurate this was.


Very Stable Genius

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Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area?

 

I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits?

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Around 70% tends to end up in Columbus itself, so my guess is that the city grew between 15K-17K 2016-2017, putting the population between 875,000-877,000. However, because previous-year estimates have been adjusted upward for Columbus, I could easily see the city hitting 880,000 come the May estimate for July 1, 2017.  If so, the city is probably edging closer to 900,000 at this point in 2018.  At that rate, 1 million would be hit around 2025. 

 

Just want to point out how accurate this was.

 

Yes it was very accurate to less than 1,000. Given the location of Columbus, to gain over 15,000 people in one year is amazing growth. If that growth continues (and the estimates are correct) then Columbus will be at 915,000 or more by the 2020 census.


 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

Frankly, Aaron Renn annoys me.  He seems to like Columbus, but also seems to enjoy knocking it when he can find an angle.  The part about how Columbus just gains from Ohio is not only factually untrue (it has net national gains outside of Ohio as well, including from nearly 30 states), but the vast majority of metros/cites nationally gain most of their domestic population from within their home states.  This doesn't even count the growing international migration.  He attempts to create a false narrative that Columbus is both unique in its migration trends, and that it's somehow in danger of imminent failure if the rest of Ohio stops moving there.  Worse, he posts this false information and narrative across multiple media platforms, including the Atlantic.  This to me is just another one of those annexation claims, where people need there to be something wrong or negative regardless of the facts.  Notice how he suggested any criticism of his view would be the result of a "cadre" of Columbus boosters.  What a tool.

Edited by jonoh81

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Because I don't like letting falsehoods go unchallenged...

 

Domestic Migration to the Columbus Metro

Ohio Only

2006-2010: +7,910

2011-2015: +7,895

2012-2016: +8,998

Rest of the US

2006-2010: -1,278

2011-2015: +1,598

2012-2016: +2,139

Total Domestic

2006-2010: +6,632

2011-2015: +9,493

2012-2016: +11,137

 

Number of net positive migration states outside Ohio (including DC and Puerto Rico)

2006-2010: 21

2011-2015: 28

2012-2016: 29

 

All data is based on the Census migration estimates.  The totals are the estimated annual averages for each period. 

 

Suck it, Renn.

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18 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

Frankly, Aaron Renn annoys me.  He seems to like Columbus, but also seems to enjoy knocking it when he can find an angle.  The part about how Columbus just gains from Ohio is not only factually untrue (it has net national gains outside of Ohio as well, including from nearly 30 states), but the vast majority of metros/cites nationally gain most of their domestic population from within their home states.  This doesn't even count the growing international migration.  He attempts to create a false narrative that Columbus is both unique in its migration trends, and that it's somehow in danger of imminent failure if the rest of Ohio stops moving there.  Worse, he posts this false information and narrative across multiple media platforms, including the Atlantic.  This to me is just another one of those annexation claims, where people need there to be something wrong or negative regardless of the facts.  Notice how he suggested any criticism of his view would be the result of a "cadre" of Columbus boosters.  What a tool.

I just read it and kind of agree. He just ignores what does not fit the narrative he has established in his mind. The whole idea of "booster bros" is ridiculous especially since the city IMO still grapples a bit with an inferiority complex, and  much of what may seem to be boosterism is just the response to those who mindlessly attack the city over every. single. thing.(people like that Minneapolisite guy on CD forums-and he is not alone). If you look at sites like CD forums, or hell even this site, Columbus has a distinct lack of supporters compared to cities of it's size. It has a distinct lack of discussion or topics compared to it's peer cities IMO.

 

And we all know the weaknesses of the city: the city schools, lack of public transit options, the city having one of the greatest divides between the haves and havenots, The Hilltop, Linden, The aging post-war corridors(Hamilton road, Brice road, Far west side/Broad, etc), the lack of a "brand", etc. etc.

 

He simply cannot speak of the city without taking a swipe at it, and when he can't come up with anything, he just makes something up. He did not even define how this supposed "booster bros" group will make things tougher besides 'not being able to take criticism'. Much of that group only exists as a counter to those who have an agenda and who continue perpetrating a false narrative of the city-including Renn himself, as you so well pointed out in your own criticism of his methodology in domestic migration. Of course in his mind, correcting a false narrative is being a "booster bro" lol.

 

He also does not seem to get that the city has a relatively young population(younger than that of Ohio as a whole as well as the nation as a whole) and that the majority of population growth is natural increase of births over deaths-demographics that are just the opposite of say a city/region like PIttsburgh(not knocking that city).

 

Renn is just Renn-he is often spot on, but he has his own blind spots and limitations just like anyone else.

Edited by Toddguy

 In any post I make I am not trying to suggest that I know everything about how real estate and development works, or that I know what is economically feasible or warranted, nor am I griping and expressing "height frustrations" or that I am "down' on the city of Columbus-I have lived in or around the city for nearly 60 years and I am a big supporter of it. thanks.

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