Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Toddguy

Columbus: Population Trends

Recommended Posts

Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area?

 

I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits?

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area?

 

I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits?

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Around 70% tends to end up in Columbus itself, so my guess is that the city grew between 15K-17K 2016-2017, putting the population between 875,000-877,000. However, because previous-year estimates have been adjusted upward for Columbus, I could easily see the city hitting 880,000 come the May estimate for July 1, 2017.  If so, the city is probably edging closer to 900,000 at this point in 2018.  At that rate, 1 million would be hit around 2025. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area?

 

I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits?

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Around 70% tends to end up in Columbus itself, so my guess is that the city grew between 15K-17K 2016-2017, putting the population between 875,000-877,000. However, because previous-year estimates have been adjusted upward for Columbus, I could easily see the city hitting 880,000 come the May estimate for July 1, 2017.  If so, the city is probably edging closer to 900,000 at this point in 2018.  At that rate, 1 million would be hit around 2025. 

 

Do you know when in May the estimates come out?

 

I still don't know where the hell they are putting all of these new people. I saw that Marion County Indiana(Indianapolis)only grew by about 6,000 or so and will stay behind us, but I think Charlotte and Fort Worth are going to pass Cbus if not this year than next year. It is hard to believe Columbus has added about 100,000 people in just seven years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area?

 

I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits?

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Around 70% tends to end up in Columbus itself, so my guess is that the city grew between 15K-17K 2016-2017, putting the population between 875,000-877,000. However, because previous-year estimates have been adjusted upward for Columbus, I could easily see the city hitting 880,000 come the May estimate for July 1, 2017.  If so, the city is probably edging closer to 900,000 at this point in 2018.  At that rate, 1 million would be hit around 2025. 

 

Do you know when in May the estimates come out?

 

I still don't know where the hell they are putting all of these new people. I saw that Marion County Indiana(Indianapolis)only grew by about 6,000 or so and will stay behind us, but I think Charlotte and Fort Worth are going to pass Cbus if not this year than next year. It is hard to believe Columbus has added about 100,000 people in just seven years.

 

They are normally out the 2nd-3rd week of May.

 

Yes, Charlotte and Fort Worth will likely pass it soon, but Columbus is growing faster than SF and Jacksonville, so also possible it'll pass those cities up.  In the end, it'll be a wash and Columbus stays at 14-15 in position.  If the 2010-2016 average annual rates stayed the same for 2017 and the foreseeable future, Columbus would pass Jacksonville by 2025, but not SF at any point, so it'd stay at 15th. 

If the cities grew their average rate 2010-2016 plus the assumed growth based on how much cities grow vs. their total metro growth, Columbus would pass Jacksonville by 2024 and SF around 2032. 

If we just go by the assumed growth rate for 2016-2017 based, again, on the average that each city normally gets from the total metro growth, Columbus passes Jacksonville again by 2024 and SF by sometime this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^ did you check out one of the latest posts on The Urbanophile?

http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/03/27/the-return-of-sprawl/

 

This does not seem to correlate to Columbus metro growth-with 2/3rds of it in Franklin County, and half in Columbus itself. Is the growth in Cbus starting to happen more in the suburban areas that are within city limits-is there a slowdown in the core? Do you have the stats(I know you have tons of info on your site)to reveal any info about this?

 

I also wonder if the powers that be outside the region see this and is this maybe why they are backing off in financing downtown/central city projects not only here but other places? As in they see a trend and just put on the brakes and apply it to everywhere since they are not going to be looking at individual mid sized metros like Columbus to see if it is different? Kind of tying in to the Central Ohio Housing Trend thread?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^ did you check out one of the latest posts on The Urbanophile?

http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/03/27/the-return-of-sprawl/

 

This does not seem to correlate to Columbus metro growth-with 2/3rds of it in Franklin County, and half in Columbus itself. Is the growth in Cbus starting to happen more in the suburban areas that are within city limits-is there a slowdown in the core? Do you have the stats(I know you have tons of info on your site)to reveal any info about this?

 

I also wonder if the powers that be outside the region see this and is this maybe why they are backing off in financing downtown/central city projects not only here but other places? As in they see a trend and just put on the brakes and apply it to everywhere since they are not going to be looking at individual mid sized metros like Columbus to see if it is different? Kind of tying in to the Central Ohio Housing Trend thread?

 

There are 4 really obvious problems with that post.

 

1. The Brookings numbers ONLY use % growth rate.  That's really problematic.  A core county of any metro, due to its already much larger population, does not typically have higher growth % rates even if it's adding far more people than suburban counties.  For example, Delaware County consistently has higher % growth than Franklin County, but Franklin has added almost 5x more total people this decade alone.  Yet if we were to only look at percentage rates like they do, Delaware, a suburban county, would be growing faster.  It's nonsense and intentionally misleading.  The same manipulated statistics are found with Cox's graph.  How many 10 million metros are there in the US?  2.  And there are only 9 total above 5 million, making the sample sizes far too small to come to any reliable conclusions about their attractiveness with domestic migration.  And it still uses % change only.

 

2. Wendall Cox and others like him are extremely anti-city, pro-suburb.  The numbers are misleading for a reason, because people like him are selling an agenda. 

 

3. Studies like this always fail to address the question of supply and demand.  Urban areas are always going to be harder to add more housing to than greenfield areas.  That's why there's the perception of faster growth in the suburbs.  A developer can put up 1000 single-family homes over 800 acres within a year or so, but most infill development takes longer and covers much smaller individual lots.  It's also more expensive to build in urban areas, cutting into profit margins that developers want, meaning urban housing prices tend to be higher, at least in nicer areas.  Even if 1 million people wanted to move into an urban core at any given time, there is just no feasible way to accommodate them.  So a lot of people go with suburban areas due to price and availability, even if they would prefer a more urban, walkable core area. 

 

4. Which brings me to the final problem- not all suburban areas are created equal.  Even in suburban areas, there has been some increased push to provide walkability and urban planning to new development.  You can see that in the Bridge Park development in Dublin. That's not traditional suburbia, but it's still technically in a suburb.  Simply assuming that an increase in population % growth in suburban counties means that everyone is moving to the same crappy subdivisions is not the safe bet it once was. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^ did you check out one of the latest posts on The Urbanophile?

http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/03/27/the-return-of-sprawl/

 

This does not seem to correlate to Columbus metro growth-with 2/3rds of it in Franklin County, and half in Columbus itself. Is the growth in Cbus starting to happen more in the suburban areas that are within city limits-is there a slowdown in the core? Do you have the stats(I know you have tons of info on your site)to reveal any info about this?

 

I also wonder if the powers that be outside the region see this and is this maybe why they are backing off in financing downtown/central city projects not only here but other places? As in they see a trend and just put on the brakes and apply it to everywhere since they are not going to be looking at individual mid sized metros like Columbus to see if it is different? Kind of tying in to the Central Ohio Housing Trend thread?

 

There are 4 really obvious problems with that post.

 

1. The Brookings numbers ONLY use % growth rate.  That's really problematic.  A core county of any metro, due to its already much larger population, does not typically have higher growth % rates even if it's adding far more people than suburban counties.  For example, Delaware County consistently has higher % growth than Franklin County, but Franklin has added almost 5x more total people this decade alone.  Yet if we were to only look at percentage rates like they do, Delaware, a suburban county, would be growing faster.  It's nonsense and intentionally misleading.  The same manipulated statistics are found with Cox's graph.  How many 10 million metros are there in the US?  2.  And there are only 9 total above 5 million, making the sample sizes far too small to come to any reliable conclusions about their attractiveness with domestic migration.  And it still uses % change only.

 

2. Wendall Cox and others like him are extremely anti-city, pro-suburb.  The numbers are misleading for a reason, because people like him are selling an agenda. 

 

3. Studies like this always fail to address the question of supply and demand.  Urban areas are always going to be harder to add more housing to than greenfield areas.  That's why there's the perception of faster growth in the suburbs.  A developer can put up 1000 single-family homes over 800 acres within a year or so, but most infill development takes longer and covers much smaller individual lots.  It's also more expensive to build in urban areas, cutting into profit margins that developers want, meaning urban housing prices tend to be higher, at least in nicer areas.  Even if 1 million people wanted to move into an urban core at any given time, there is just no feasible way to accommodate them.  So a lot of people go with suburban areas due to price and availability, even if they would prefer a more urban, walkable core area. 

 

4. Which brings me to the final problem- not all suburban areas are created equal.  Even in suburban areas, there has been some increased push to provide walkability and urban planning to new development.  You can see that in the Bridge Park development in Dublin. That's not traditional suburbia, but it's still technically in a suburb.  Simply assuming that an increase in population % growth in suburban counties means that everyone is moving to the same crappy subdivisions is not the safe bet it once was. 

 

 

I know you have a ton of data on your site. Do you data for the last few years regarding not only how many housing units are being built in Franklin County, but where they are being built? As in broken down into census unit or zip code? I would just really like to know where are these housing units for all of these people being built?

 

It seems that in the suburban areas within city limits, up near Polaris, north of Hamilton road, around that Lifestyles community area near New Albany and the similar one in that outside wedge between Hilliard and Dublin, there does not seem to be much going on that is largescale. Just some scattered smaller stuff here and there and that has been the case for several years it seems. I don't see numerous thousand house tracts popping up every year in the greenfields that are left within Columbus City limits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^ did you check out one of the latest posts on The Urbanophile?

http://www.urbanophile.com/2018/03/27/the-return-of-sprawl/

 

This does not seem to correlate to Columbus metro growth-with 2/3rds of it in Franklin County, and half in Columbus itself. Is the growth in Cbus starting to happen more in the suburban areas that are within city limits-is there a slowdown in the core? Do you have the stats(I know you have tons of info on your site)to reveal any info about this?

 

I also wonder if the powers that be outside the region see this and is this maybe why they are backing off in financing downtown/central city projects not only here but other places? As in they see a trend and just put on the brakes and apply it to everywhere since they are not going to be looking at individual mid sized metros like Columbus to see if it is different? Kind of tying in to the Central Ohio Housing Trend thread?

 

There are 4 really obvious problems with that post.

 

1. The Brookings numbers ONLY use % growth rate.  That's really problematic.  A core county of any metro, due to its already much larger population, does not typically have higher growth % rates even if it's adding far more people than suburban counties.  For example, Delaware County consistently has higher % growth than Franklin County, but Franklin has added almost 5x more total people this decade alone.  Yet if we were to only look at percentage rates like they do, Delaware, a suburban county, would be growing faster.  It's nonsense and intentionally misleading.  The same manipulated statistics are found with Cox's graph.  How many 10 million metros are there in the US?  2.  And there are only 9 total above 5 million, making the sample sizes far too small to come to any reliable conclusions about their attractiveness with domestic migration.  And it still uses % change only.

 

2. Wendall Cox and others like him are extremely anti-city, pro-suburb.  The numbers are misleading for a reason, because people like him are selling an agenda. 

 

3. Studies like this always fail to address the question of supply and demand.  Urban areas are always going to be harder to add more housing to than greenfield areas.  That's why there's the perception of faster growth in the suburbs.  A developer can put up 1000 single-family homes over 800 acres within a year or so, but most infill development takes longer and covers much smaller individual lots.  It's also more expensive to build in urban areas, cutting into profit margins that developers want, meaning urban housing prices tend to be higher, at least in nicer areas.  Even if 1 million people wanted to move into an urban core at any given time, there is just no feasible way to accommodate them.  So a lot of people go with suburban areas due to price and availability, even if they would prefer a more urban, walkable core area. 

 

4. Which brings me to the final problem- not all suburban areas are created equal.  Even in suburban areas, there has been some increased push to provide walkability and urban planning to new development.  You can see that in the Bridge Park development in Dublin. That's not traditional suburbia, but it's still technically in a suburb.  Simply assuming that an increase in population % growth in suburban counties means that everyone is moving to the same crappy subdivisions is not the safe bet it once was. 

 

 

I know you have a ton of data on your site. Do you data for the last few years regarding not only how many housing units are being built in Franklin County, but where they are being built? As in broken down into census unit or zip code? I would just really like to know where are these housing units for all of these people being built?

 

It seems that in the suburban areas within city limits, up near Polaris, north of Hamilton road, around that Lifestyles community area near New Albany and the similar one in that outside wedge between Hilliard and Dublin, there does not seem to be much going on that is largescale. Just some scattered smaller stuff here and there and that has been the case for several years it seems. I don't see numerous thousand house tracts popping up every year in the greenfields that are left within Columbus City limits.

 

The Census gives estimated total housing units right down to the census block level.  However, they are just estimates, and they tend to follow the population estimates, which can be WAY off at that lower area level.  For example, the census tract estimates since 2010 have the Short North losing population while parts of Linden growing quickly, which of course is the exact opposite of reality.  The population estimates at those levels are simply a somewhat random distribution of the overall city/county estimated growth. 

 

To answer your question, from 2010-2016, the supposed estimated change for the entire area inside of I-270 was +2,201 units.  For perspective, that's about how many units have been recently built or under construction in just the RiverSouth section of Downtown the last 2-3 years alone, so obviously there's some severe underestimating going on.  Meanwhile, the areas outside of 270 are estimated to have grown by 15,015 units.  Of course this doesn't match up with city population growth at all.  So overall, pretty questionable stuff.  We won't really know the true growth until the 2020 census. 

 

Also, actual housing construction is still less than half the pace it was before the recession, so that's definitely part of the reason you're not seeing that much going on out in the suburbs.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bet when the city listings come out Grove City will be over 40,000-only the second Columbus suburb to ever hit that number. Maybe Westerville also.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah i cant imagine westerville isnt well over 40k by now with all they have annexed and built up over the years. i was very surprized it was still under at 36k in the 2010 census.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah i cant imagine westerville isnt well over 40k by now with all they have annexed and built up over the years. i was very surprized it was still under at 36k in the 2010 census.

 

Westerville is only 12.61 square miles. Grove City is 16.36. Grove City has annexed more than Westerville since the 2010 census. Wouldn't be surprised if they're over 17 square miles now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah i cant imagine westerville isnt well over 40k by now with all they have annexed and built up over the years. i was very surprized it was still under at 36k in the 2010 census.

 

Westerville is only 12.61 square miles. Grove City is 16.36. Grove City has annexed more than Westerville since the 2010 census. Wouldn't be surprised if they're over 17 square miles now.

 

Some of that is because what people think is Westerville is actually Columbus, Worthington, Lewis Center, Galena and Genoa Township.

 

Perfect example of this is Genoa TWP, which is pretty much everything east of Africa Rd to Hoover and north of Polaris to Galena.  Population in 2010 was 23k+ which would bump "Westerville" to around 60k.

 

Polaris is roughly the gray or county line in this photo.

Map_of_Delaware_County_Ohio_With_Municipal_and_Township_Labels.PNG.05aa457791f7200bf5266c8be3c2dff0.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here were the 2016 estimates of Columbus' suburbs and metro area cities with at least 5,000 people.

 

1. Newark: 49,134

2. Dublin: 45,568

3. Lancaster: 39,848

4. Grove City: 39,721

5. Westerville: 38,985

6. Delaware: 38,643

7. Reynoldsburg: 37,449

8. Upper Arlington: 34,997

9. Gahanna: 34,956

10. Hilliard: 34,905

11. Marysville: 23,406

12. Pickerington: 20,069

13. Whitehall: 18,736

14. Pataskala: 15,458

15. Worthington: 14,528

16. Circleville: 13,902

17. Bexley: 13,669

18. Powell: 12,810

19. Heath: 10,625

20. New Albany: 10,360

21. London: 10,158

22. Canal Winchester: 7,905

23. Grandview Heights: 7,628

24. Logan: 7,085

25. Granville: 5,771

26. Groveport: 5,552

27. Sunbury: 5,216

 

Here they were by how much they grew 2015-2016.

 

1. Hilliard: 1,255

2. Delaware: 615

3. Marysville: 575

4. Grove City: 509

5. Dublin: 473

6. New Albany: 459

7. Westerville: 450

8. Newark: 392

9. Gahanna: 372

10. Grandview Heights: 361

11. Pickerington: 337

12. Reynoldsburg: 258

13. Powell: 174

14. Pataskala: 134

15. Lancaster: 123

16. Sunbury: 114

17. Upper Arlington: 100

18. Heath: 89

19. Canal Winchester: 79

20. Granville: 62

21. Circleville: 56

22. Whitehall: 46

23. Worthington: 39

24. London: 17

25. Bexley: 16

26. Groveport: 13

27. Logan: -19

 

Based on this, Newark has likely already passed 50,000, the first place in the metro to do so, and Lancaster, Grove City, Delaware and Westerville are either over 40,000 or very close to passing it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember early in the decade UO thought it was fascinating that so many Columbus 'burbs were clustered around 30K but now they are past 40k or at least close to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah i cant imagine westerville isnt well over 40k by now with all they have annexed and built up over the years. i was very surprized it was still under at 36k in the 2010 census.

 

Westerville is only 12.61 square miles. Grove City is 16.36. Grove City has annexed more than Westerville since the 2010 census. Wouldn't be surprised if they're over 17 square miles now.

 

Some of that is because what people think is Westerville is actually Columbus, Worthington, Lewis Center, Galena and Genoa Township.

 

Perfect example of this is Genoa TWP, which is pretty much everything east of Africa Rd to Hoover and north of Polaris to Galena.  Population in 2010 was 23k+ which would bump "Westerville" to around 60k.

 

Polaris is roughly the gray or county line in this photo.

 

 

pretty sure the northernmost parts of westerville in genoa and columbus on that map were annexed during the post 1990 or 2000 census. perhaps in some deal for polaris? not sure.

 

its a free for all land grab up around there.

 

perhaps ohio's most valuable or active potential development land?

 

westerville was never as ambitious about any of this as they could be tho.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah i cant imagine westerville isnt well over 40k by now with all they have annexed and built up over the years. i was very surprized it was still under at 36k in the 2010 census.

 

Westerville is only 12.61 square miles. Grove City is 16.36. Grove City has annexed more than Westerville since the 2010 census. Wouldn't be surprised if they're over 17 square miles now.

 

Some of that is because what people think is Westerville is actually Columbus, Worthington, Lewis Center, Galena and Genoa Township.

 

Perfect example of this is Genoa TWP, which is pretty much everything east of Africa Rd to Hoover and north of Polaris to Galena.  Population in 2010 was 23k+ which would bump "Westerville" to around 60k.

 

Polaris is roughly the gray or county line in this photo.

 

 

pretty sure the northernmost parts of westerville in genoa and columbus on that map were annexed during the post 1990 or 2000 census. perhaps in some deal for polaris? not sure.

 

its a free for all land grab up around there.

 

perhaps ohio's most valuable or active potential development land?

 

westerville was never as ambitious about any of this as they could be tho.

 

 

Polaris itself lies in Delaware County but is part of Columbus.  Where Westerville Central High School is located is actually Genoa TWP but with a Westerville address.  It's considered Westerville but from a census perspective it is Genoa TWP and not annexed in any way by Westerville besides by the school district.  Similarly there are parts of Worthington and Columbus that attended Westerville schools.  My friend technically lives in Blendon TWP, pays Columbus taxes, kids would go to Westerville North and yet his address is Gahanna.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't really think of Lancaster or Newark as suburbs, just towns in the metro area. But the growth of them is nice to see.

 

Also do any of these townships in southern Delaware County/Union County actually want to be annexed to any suburb? Would any of them rebel at any attempts to annex and do a Pataskala and incorporate the township as a city?  Isn't Jerome township resisting attempts by Dublin?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i know -- some of that is part of the win-win deal.

 

you can see here how the city annexed that northern 1000 acres and was already grappling with tremendous growth in the area back when polaris and new albany got going:

 

https://www.westerville.org/home/showdocument?id=1295

 

 

of course the ne area is similar to everything going on across the entire northern columbus/southern delaware corridor.

 

that makes it clear there is going to have to be some sort of rail transit development to delaware, the airport, etc., at some point and i would bet it comes all at once in some near future mega-deal buildout. especially if cols were to land amazon hq2.

 

interesting times in and around ohio's boom town!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't really think of Lancaster or Newark as suburbs, just towns in the metro area. But the growth of them is nice to see.

 

Also do any of these townships in southern Delaware County/Union County actually want to be annexed to any suburb? Would any of them rebel at any attempts to annex and do a Pataskala and incorporate the township as a city?  Isn't Jerome township resisting attempts by Dublin?

 

Jerome is resisting pretty hard from what I've heard, for good reason.  Dublin want's the tax dollars and potential tax dollars that Jerome has/will have.  Westerville/Genoa work pretty well from what I've heard but the interesting one will be the three that encompass the Olentangy School District.  Liberty, Orange and Berlin all fall into that district; they now have 4 total high schools and Berlin TWP is on the verge of exploding in that area.  In the next decade it will be interesting to see what town takes the leadership role in Berlin TWP in that time frame or will it just remain the TWP as the population explodes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i know westerville and genoa have worked together very well in the past, good to hear that seems to be still true. in fact that kind of working together in the hallmark of the columbus area and the opposite of the other two c's metros. its also interesting to hear that dublin example and how cooperation and consolidation starts to fall apart on the edges of growth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you added together Powell, and the townships of Berkshire, Berlin, Liberty, and Orange, and called the city Olentangy, it'd be the largest suburb at 66,497 residents. All being in the same school district, you'd think it'd be advantageous for them to merge their other services, too.

 

Of course, if Westerville merged with Blendon and Genoa townships who utilize their schools, Westerville would be at 74,671.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread was created for posters to be able to intelligently discuss population trends in Columbus and Central Ohio.  Not for posters to city vs city troll.  If a poster can't handle those simple rules, don't post here.

 

41253880942_613467c4e2_d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you added together Powell, and the townships of Berkshire, Berlin, Liberty, and Orange, and called the city Olentangy, it'd be the largest suburb at 66,497 residents. All being in the same school district, you'd think it'd be advantageous for them to merge their other services, too.

 

Of course, if Westerville merged with Blendon and Genoa townships who utilize their schools, Westerville would be at 74,671.

 

delcomap.jpg

(This map dates back to the mid '80s (I think 1985) and while generally accurate to this day, it does not account for any precise property changes over the last 30 years)

I just share this map of Delaware County (the color overlays were for me to geographically divide my photos when I was heavily involved with roadfan.com) for those who want to make population divisions by school district.

Color demarcation

light blue - Olentangy

violet - Westerville City

Taupe - Big Walnut

Yellow - Buckeye Valley

Sort of brown - Delaware

Green - Dublin

 

P.S. This doesn't account for all the township school consolidation over the last century

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you added together Powell, and the townships of Berkshire, Berlin, Liberty, and Orange, and called the city Olentangy, it'd be the largest suburb at 66,497 residents. All being in the same school district, you'd think it'd be advantageous for them to merge their other services, too.

 

Of course, if Westerville merged with Blendon and Genoa townships who utilize their schools, Westerville would be at 74,671.

 

delcomap.jpg

(This map dates back to the mid '80s (I think 1985) and while generally accurate to this day, it does not account for any precise property changes over the last 30 years)

I just share this map of Delaware County (the color overlays were for me to geographically divide my photos when I was heavily involved with roadfan.com) for those who want to make population divisions by school district.

Color demarcation

light blue - Olentangy

violet - Westerville City

Taupe - Big Walnut

Yellow - Buckeye Valley

Sort of brown - Delaware

Green - Dublin

 

P.S. This doesn't account for all the township school consolidation over the last century

 

 

Thanks for that. I found this tool that has loads of info (from the 2010 census) by school district.

 

https://development.ohio.gov/reports/reports_schooldistricts_map_r5.htm

 

Westerville was at 92,789. Most likely over 100,000 by 2020.

Olentangy was at 73,715. Wouldn't be surprised to see that nearing 100,000 now as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are the chances of a Franklin County/Columbus merger like Indy or Nashville? 1% or even less than that? Would the fact that there are so many incorporated suburbs already in Franklin County be a stumbling block to that? Also what about certain townships getting annexed(like Franklin township, for instance)?

 

I know that I read recently(can't remember where)that Cbus city schools are no longer requiring newly annexed land to be a part of Cbus city schools. Would that encourage more areas to be receptive to annexation or is there just no desire whatsoever for already developed neighborhoods to be a part of Cbus itself?

Did anyone else read this?

 

Also given that newly annexed areas could remain in suburban school districts, will Columbus start any more annexations? I kind of hate to see that the city seems(at least to me)to be almost completely surrounded by incorporated suburbs with the only areas really open are to the south and west where development potential is limited? I wish the city would annex more land strategically and build dense developments like in that corridor between Hilliard and Dublin. If the area is going to be developed in a suburban way anyway, I would rather Cbus do it like that, then have the sprawling large lot only stuff that is rampant in many suburbs(although some have also adopted a more varied approach with denser developments I will admit).

 

I just think of cities like Dallas that annexed huge areas and still ended up being almost completely surrounded by suburbs with huge developments going into areas like Plano-areas which could have been in Dallas itself. (not attacking Dallas or being city vs city here, just using an example).

 

With the city growing so fast and the suburbs too I would hate for Cbus to get limitied to infill only(although that is great in and of itself). I just don't see how the city can keep adding 15,000 people a year with infill only-especially with Nimbyism and so much single family residential zoning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't feel there's that much NIMBYism outside of Clintonville. It's not that big a deal that developers have to take off two stories from proposals in order to please the Italian Village commission. There's plenty of room. Columbus proper is half the size of New York City.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't feel there's that much NIMBYism outside of Clintonville. It's not that big a deal that developers have to take off two stories from proposals in order to please the Italian Village commission. There's plenty of room. Columbus proper is half the size of New York City.

 

Is this in the right thread lol?

 

Yeah Clintonville is bad, but look at German Village, or most areas...even the University district is concerned about maintaining the "feel" of areas like Lane Avenue. Too dense or tall for Lane Avenue? And what is the "feel" of that stretch that they are trying to protect. This is all too common. There are way too many areas in the city that are single family detached residence only. We need to have zoning that allows apartment conversions, apartments over garages, etc. and in more areas of the city. What areas of the city are going to welcome something like what is going on along High street?(besides many of the areas in the "uncool crescent"...didn't you coin that term?)

 

If we don't allow more density and in more areas just where are we going to put the 750,000+ people we are supposed to add in 30 years? In mile after mile of extended sprawl? With all of the additional roads, sewers, water lines and additional infrastructure along with what we already have?

 

Also Columbus is more than two thirds the size of NYC proper. Just sayin' and all. I wish we could get some of their type of developments(just not at the cost they have to pay).

 

We are going to add by 2050 basically 80% or more of the existing population of Columbus as it is now to the region. Where are we going to put these people? I would rather add as many as possible within the existing urban/suburban footprint, and that is going to be difficult given how things are moving now. We are behind in new housing as it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are the chances of a Franklin County/Columbus merger like Indy or Nashville? 1% or even less than that? Would the fact that there are so many incorporated suburbs already in Franklin County be a stumbling block to that? Also what about certain townships getting annexed(like Franklin township, for instance)?

 

I know that I read recently(can't remember where)that Cbus city schools are no longer requiring newly annexed land to be a part of Cbus city schools. Would that encourage more areas to be receptive to annexation or is there just no desire whatsoever for already developed neighborhoods to be a part of Cbus itself?

Did anyone else read this?

 

Also given that newly annexed areas could remain in suburban school districts, will Columbus start any more annexations? I kind of hate to see that the city seems(at least to me)to be almost completely surrounded by incorporated suburbs with the only areas really open are to the south and west where development potential is limited? I wish the city would annex more land strategically and build dense developments like in that corridor between Hilliard and Dublin. If the area is going to be developed in a suburban way anyway, I would rather Cbus do it like that, then have the sprawling large lot only stuff that is rampant in many suburbs(although some have also adopted a more varied approach with denser developments I will admit).

 

I just think of cities like Dallas that annexed huge areas and still ended up being almost completely surrounded by suburbs with huge developments going into areas like Plano-areas which could have been in Dallas itself. (not attacking Dallas or being city vs city here, just using an example).

 

With the city growing so fast and the suburbs too I would hate for Cbus to get limitied to infill only(although that is great in and of itself). I just don't see how the city can keep adding 15,000 people a year with infill only-especially with Nimbyism and so much single family residential zoning.

 

It's hard to do a comparison to a city like Dallas versus Columbus.  We're an older town, but unique in that we have infill opportunities and open land still within the city limits unlike cities like Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit.  Those cities were built out when "white flight" occurred and don't have that open land.  They're also historically industrial communities where Columbus really wasn't "known" for anything.  Cincinnati had its food processing and livestock trade, which brought spinoff industries.  Cleveland and Detroit had heavy industry and shipping.  Columbus had large swaths of land and farms until very recently within actual city limits. 

 

Getting back to my point is that you've seen the larger developments here that you see in places Plano.  Dublin has Bridge Street,  Westerville has the Altair area with hotels and office developments, New Albany has their "uptown" which is more like something you would see in the Northern Indy suburbs.  If you include that I would say Hilliard, Grove City and Gahanna are all similar in the midwest versions of a Plano/McKinney developments.

 

That is what I think is so unique about central Ohio is that we're growing similar(with the infill development) to several different areas and with Easton, German Village and the Arena District have inspired growth elsewhere.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^

 

"Columbus had large swaths of land and farms until very recently within actual city limits."

 

Key word is "had".

 

Without some major changes in city policy I am afraid most of the new growth will be in the suburbs-the city cannot absorb even one third of the 750,000 expected regionally within the next thirty years otherwise.

 

Ideally we could develop some mass transit and have dense TOD along these lines. But where can you run them where the existing zoning(and nearby residents) would allow dense TOD development? Where along a line from downtown to Dublin are you going too fill in along a line to get those dense nodes to make mass transit like light rail really work? Connecting a few thousand well heeled Dublin residents to Downtown is not worth the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to make it even remotely work financially, and nobody should be subsidizing a "boutique" light rail or streetcar line in a city with a poverty rate of around 30%. JMHO.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^

 

"Columbus had large swaths of land and farms until very recently within actual city limits."

 

Key word is "had".

 

Without some major changes in city policy I am afraid most of the new growth will be in the suburbs-the city cannot absorb even one third of the 750,000 expected regionally within the next thirty years otherwise.

 

Ideally we could develop some mass transit and have dense TOD along these lines. But where can you run them where the existing zoning(and nearby residents) would allow dense TOD development? Where along a line from downtown to Dublin are you going too fill in along a line to get those dense nodes to make mass transit like light rail really work? Connecting a few thousand well heeled Dublin residents to Downtown is not worth the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to make it even remotely work financially, and nobody should be subsidizing a "boutique" light rail or streetcar line in a city with a poverty rate of around 30%. JMHO.

 

 

I agree with the last part and why I don't think it works without just being a simple connector to the airport or Easton.  If you asked folks in Dublin they wouldn't be in favor IMO.  Idk what it would do for places like Linden, South Side or even the Hilltop and for the investment I think it could be spent better elsewhere.  We're a very walkable city where we need to be and where our tourism comes into place.  The parking meeting yesterday morning really opened my eyes to a lot of things, we do need more transit options but folks from the suburbs aren't going to come visit friends on a train IMO.  Uber, Lyft are much better options for those few times a year they come to see us urbanites.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

given all that, it would seem the prudent thing to do would be to identify rail routes now and start allowing and building up pre-rail transit tod along the lines. in other words, build everything but the rail with the expectation it will come along eventually. even if rail never does come, so what, at least the density is built up in a controlled, predictable manner. that’s better than the suburbs doing these scattered, willy nilly semi urban developments at the whim of developers.

 

i also agree that some sort of deeper city-suburban consolidation would be wise now, before its too late. besides water and schools, perhaps other city services could be shared. and some sort of central planning or development board. i dk but perhaps something creative like that? the wastefulness of duplicated services in the other two c’s with all their little petty fiefdom suburbs is a disasterous anchor that columbus still has a much better opportunity to avoid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

given all that, it would seem the prudent thing to do would be to identify rail routes now and start allowing and building up pre-rail transit tod along the lines. in other words, build everything but the rail with the expectation it will come along eventually. even if rail never does come, so what, at least the density is built up in a controlled, predictable manner. that’s better than the suburbs doing these scattered, willy nilly semi urban developments at the whim of developers.

 

i also agree that some sort of deeper city-suburban consolidation would be wise now, before its too late. besides water and schools, perhaps other city services could be shared. and some sort of central planning or development board. i dk but perhaps something creative like that? the wastefulness of duplicated services in the other two c’s with all their little petty fiefdom suburbs is a disasterous anchor that columbus still has a much better opportunity to avoid.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Can we PLEASE not mention other cities, especially in a negative light? This is exactly how the thread got derailed this last time.  There is no reason to mention any other cities by name, especially when the comment is not a positive one.  Thanks.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyway, I think a light rail line might work (if the railroads would permit it) from downtown to the airport and then up to Easton. You already have three important nodes with room for development-downtown, the airport and Easton- and there are underdeveloped areas and brownfields that would be perfect for dense TOD developments in between them. It would also help benefit nearby communities that are somewhat distressed.

 

You can see with the Rogue facility and the recent apartment announcement for the south part of Milo Grogan that gentrification is moving a bit east. One big problem is that much of this area along this route is not considered 'desirable' and that might be a problem. If that could be overcome and you could get areas adjacent to the line with TOD, it would also benefit these communities by providing jobs and income, hopefully without widespread gentrification throughout those same neighborhoods. Maybe a win/win situation? I don't know. But it just makes sense that these are three large nodes that could use a connection like a light rail system. JMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't feel there's that much NIMBYism outside of Clintonville. It's not that big a deal that developers have to take off two stories from proposals in order to please the Italian Village commission. There's plenty of room. Columbus proper is half the size of New York City.

 

It's a pretty big deal when all those downsized projects are added together.  Suddenly 2 stories in 10 projects is a 20-story building and potentially hundreds of residential units.  If Columbus wants to keep housing prices reasonable, it has to push for more housing everywhere, but especially in the most desirable areas.  The problem is that we are stuck with the shorter buildings for decades into the future.  That's not thinking long-term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are the chances of a Franklin County/Columbus merger like Indy or Nashville? 1% or even less than that? Would the fact that there are so many incorporated suburbs already in Franklin County be a stumbling block to that? Also what about certain townships getting annexed(like Franklin township, for instance)?

 

I know that I read recently(can't remember where)that Cbus city schools are no longer requiring newly annexed land to be a part of Cbus city schools. Would that encourage more areas to be receptive to annexation or is there just no desire whatsoever for already developed neighborhoods to be a part of Cbus itself?

Did anyone else read this?

 

Also given that newly annexed areas could remain in suburban school districts, will Columbus start any more annexations? I kind of hate to see that the city seems(at least to me)to be almost completely surrounded by incorporated suburbs with the only areas really open are to the south and west where development potential is limited? I wish the city would annex more land strategically and build dense developments like in that corridor between Hilliard and Dublin. If the area is going to be developed in a suburban way anyway, I would rather Cbus do it like that, then have the sprawling large lot only stuff that is rampant in many suburbs(although some have also adopted a more varied approach with denser developments I will admit).

 

I just think of cities like Dallas that annexed huge areas and still ended up being almost completely surrounded by suburbs with huge developments going into areas like Plano-areas which could have been in Dallas itself. (not attacking Dallas or being city vs city here, just using an example).

 

With the city growing so fast and the suburbs too I would hate for Cbus to get limitied to infill only(although that is great in and of itself). I just don't see how the city can keep adding 15,000 people a year with infill only-especially with Nimbyism and so much single family residential zoning.

 

It's hard to do a comparison to a city like Dallas versus Columbus.  We're an older town, but unique in that we have infill opportunities and open land still within the city limits unlike cities like Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit.  Those cities were built out when "white flight" occurred and don't have that open land.  They're also historically industrial communities where Columbus really wasn't "known" for anything.  Cincinnati had its food processing and livestock trade, which brought spinoff industries.  Cleveland and Detroit had heavy industry and shipping.  Columbus had large swaths of land and farms until very recently within actual city limits. 

 

Getting back to my point is that you've seen the larger developments here that you see in places Plano.  Dublin has Bridge Street,  Westerville has the Altair area with hotels and office developments, New Albany has their "uptown" which is more like something you would see in the Northern Indy suburbs.  If you include that I would say Hilliard, Grove City and Gahanna are all similar in the midwest versions of a Plano/McKinney developments.

 

That is what I think is so unique about central Ohio is that we're growing similar(with the infill development) to several different areas and with Easton, German Village and the Arena District have inspired growth elsewhere. 

 

I think people only tend to think of infill as building on vacant lots, but density can be added in a lot of ways.  Look at Linden for example.  It is a huge area, within Columbus' city limits and is made up of mostly undesirable post-war housing.  Entire corridors, like Cleveland, Innis, Hudson, EN Broadway, Cooke, Karl and Weber can see tons of multi-story mixed-use go up, and the neighborhoods themselves can be see massive rebuilding to an even greater density, something we will probably start to see over time.  Most urban neighborhoods still have a lot of vacant property left over from Urban Renewal, like OTE, King-Lincoln, the South Side, Franklinton, Hilltop, Weinland Park, etc.  The truth is that even if Columbus didn't add a single acre of additional land to its limits, there are near endless opportunities to keep adding more people.  It wouldn't be as easy as greenfield development, but much of what's going on now is already not that kind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

given all that, it would seem the prudent thing to do would be to identify rail routes now and start allowing and building up pre-rail transit tod along the lines. in other words, build everything but the rail with the expectation it will come along eventually. even if rail never does come, so what, at least the density is built up in a controlled, predictable manner. that’s better than the suburbs doing these scattered, willy nilly semi urban developments at the whim of developers.

 

i also agree that some sort of deeper city-suburban consolidation would be wise now, before its too late. besides water and schools, perhaps other city services could be shared. and some sort of central planning or development board. i dk but perhaps something creative like that? the wastefulness of duplicated services in the other two c’s with all their little petty fiefdom suburbs is a disasterous anchor that columbus still has a much better opportunity to avoid.

 

MORPC and COTA came out with a list of 8 potential "high capacity" transit corridors last year.  I haven't heard anything since, but it was mentioned that they could be anything from BRT to rail. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are the chances of a Franklin County/Columbus merger like Indy or Nashville? 1% or even less than that? Would the fact that there are so many incorporated suburbs already in Franklin County be a stumbling block to that? Also what about certain townships getting annexed(like Franklin township, for instance)?

 

I know that I read recently(can't remember where)that Cbus city schools are no longer requiring newly annexed land to be a part of Cbus city schools. Would that encourage more areas to be receptive to annexation or is there just no desire whatsoever for already developed neighborhoods to be a part of Cbus itself?

Did anyone else read this?

 

Also given that newly annexed areas could remain in suburban school districts, will Columbus start any more annexations? I kind of hate to see that the city seems(at least to me)to be almost completely surrounded by incorporated suburbs with the only areas really open are to the south and west where development potential is limited? I wish the city would annex more land strategically and build dense developments like in that corridor between Hilliard and Dublin. If the area is going to be developed in a suburban way anyway, I would rather Cbus do it like that, then have the sprawling large lot only stuff that is rampant in many suburbs(although some have also adopted a more varied approach with denser developments I will admit).

 

I just think of cities like Dallas that annexed huge areas and still ended up being almost completely surrounded by suburbs with huge developments going into areas like Plano-areas which could have been in Dallas itself. (not attacking Dallas or being city vs city here, just using an example).

 

With the city growing so fast and the suburbs too I would hate for Cbus to get limitied to infill only(although that is great in and of itself). I just don't see how the city can keep adding 15,000 people a year with infill only-especially with Nimbyism and so much single family residential zoning.

 

It's hard to do a comparison to a city like Dallas versus Columbus.  We're an older town, but unique in that we have infill opportunities and open land still within the city limits unlike cities like Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit.  Those cities were built out when "white flight" occurred and don't have that open land.  They're also historically industrial communities where Columbus really wasn't "known" for anything.  Cincinnati had its food processing and livestock trade, which brought spinoff industries.  Cleveland and Detroit had heavy industry and shipping.  Columbus had large swaths of land and farms until very recently within actual city limits. 

 

Getting back to my point is that you've seen the larger developments here that you see in places Plano.  Dublin has Bridge Street,  Westerville has the Altair area with hotels and office developments, New Albany has their "uptown" which is more like something you would see in the Northern Indy suburbs.  If you include that I would say Hilliard, Grove City and Gahanna are all similar in the midwest versions of a Plano/McKinney developments.

 

That is what I think is so unique about central Ohio is that we're growing similar(with the infill development) to several different areas and with Easton, German Village and the Arena District have inspired growth elsewhere. 

 

I think people only tend to think of infill as building on vacant lots, but density can be added in a lot of ways.  Look at Linden for example.  It is a huge area, within Columbus' city limits and is made up of mostly undesirable post-war housing.  Entire corridors, like Cleveland, Innis, Hudson, EN Broadway, Cooke, Karl and Weber can see tons of multi-story mixed-use go up, and the neighborhoods themselves can be see massive rebuilding to an even greater density, something we will probably start to see over time.  Most urban neighborhoods still have a lot of vacant property left over from Urban Renewal, like OTE, King-Lincoln, the South Side, Franklinton, Hilltop, Weinland Park, etc.  The truth is that even if Columbus didn't add a single acre of additional land to its limits, there are near endless opportunities to keep adding more people.  It wouldn't be as easy as greenfield development, but much of what's going on now is already not that kind.

 

 

And there's tons of pockets almost nobody ever sees a little off the beaten path that can turn into something major. Many of them have only one landowner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it is kind of important that the city continue to strategically annex small amounts in order to not become landlocked. A big reason why our region 'works' so well together is that Columbus itself is firmly in the driver's seat

 

But otherwise, I'd agree that there are almost limitless opportunities for infill and redevelopment within the existing boundaries. And that's without even considering areas that haven't been developed yet but could be - like OSU's airport

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are plenty of opportunities in Columbus proper for infill, but also, if the market dictates it, demo of less dense existing structures for the construction of new higher density developments. If people are demanding to be within a certain distance to High Street and all that is left are the duplexes and single families, demand and market will dictate denser buildings get built. That's already happening along High in the University district and has happened in past decades as evidenced by the 1950s and 60s era apartment complexes along some of the side streets around OSU.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"demand" and "markets" don't create themselves. Government investment and plans affect development patterns. If enough people WANT to make things happen in Columbus they can.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×