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sabotage619

2018 U.S. House of Representatives

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All 16 seats are up for grabs in November, and outside of a  couple districts there isn't much on here about them. Currently, there are 11 Republicans, 4 Democrats and 1 vacant. With gerrymandering most of the incumbents appear to be safe. What are the races that are not a foregone conclusion? Any chance Dems pick up 4 seats in this midterm?

 

D1: Steve Chabot-R https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,24375.0.html

D2: Brad Wenstrop-R https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,27060.0.html

D3: Joyce Beatty-D

D4: Jim Jordan-R

D5: Bob Latta-R

D6: Bill Johnson-R

D7: Bob Gibbs-R

D8: Warren Davidson-R

D9: Marcy Kaptur-D

D10: Mike Turner-R

D11: Marcia Fudge-D

D12: vacant

D13: Tim Ryan-D

D14: David Joyce-R

D15: Steve Stivers-R

D16: Jim Rennaci-R

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^Really like him. Fellow Ignatian and he has distances himself from the President on issues of rhetoric. Just hope he holds true to his character.

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The DCCC announced last year that the targets in the Ohio are 1st District-Steve Chabot, 7th District-Bob Gibbs and 12th District Bob Tibieri (vacated).

Conversely, the NRCC announced last year that their targets in Ohio would be 13th District-Tim Ryan.

I would think the 12th and now the 16th Districts have moved up in priority for the Dems to try to take back seats, now that the incumbents have vacated.

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I love Gonzalez. Especially going back to his 2005 game against TTUN and that amazing catch. He would have my vote on that alone.  :)

 

You would vote for a guy because he caught ball?  Jesus.

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I love Gonzalez. Especially going back to his 2005 game against TTUN and that amazing catch. He would have my vote on that alone.  :)

 

You would vote for a guy because he caught ball?  Jesus.

 

What, are you not a fan?  Striking a dagger through the heart of TTUN with his catch in 2005 is all you need to know about a man's character. He has already done more for the state of Ohio than any representative already serving in office at this present time. When you ask your politician what have you done to improve the lives of Ohioans, he can point to something very tangible and real.

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I love Gonzalez. Especially going back to his 2005 game against TTUN and that amazing catch. He would have my vote on that alone.  :)

 

You would vote for a guy because he caught ball?  Jesus.

 

What, are you not a fan?  Striking a dagger through the heart of TTUN with his catch in 2005 is all you need to know about a man's character. He has already done more for the state of Ohio than any representative already serving in office at this present time. When you ask your politician what have you done to improve the lives of Ohioans, he can point to something very tangible and real.

 

No.  He can't.  Stop being obtuse.

 

I prefer to vote for candidates based on their stances on issues and how'd they vote.  On his website there is basically nothing there other than, "I hate the status quo."  That tells me nothing.

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^ Gonzalez has a record of great accomplishment. How many politicians in Ohio can say they have accomplished as great of things for the people of the state as he has. Yes, he did not lead them to a National Championship, but he was instrumental in the game of the century, which was yet another great accomplishment for the citizens of Ohio, and truly what makes Ohio a great state. Any time you have a hero vanquish ttUN, it is an accomplishment, yet he did it 4 times in his college career. Again, how many college students have a track record like that. It is the sign of a guy who can get it done.

 

There are a lot of politicians that talk about doing things and bringing pride to their constituents. With Gonzalez you have someone who was doing it on a daily basis before he even ran for Congress.

 

What is not to like about him.

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A special election is underway tonight for Pennsylvania US House District 18 and currently Democrat Conor Lamb has 49.8% while Republican Rick Saccone has 49.5% (with 98% of precincts reporting). Donald Trump won this district by 20 percentage points in 2016.

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With all precincts reporting, it is now 109,945 votes for the Dem and 109,850 votes for the Republican. I predict there will be a recount.

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http://radio.wosu.org/post/central-ohio-congressional-races-now-seen-less-safe-republicans#stream/0

 

In the wake of Lamb’s surprise victory, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted its rating of Ohio’s 12th Congressional district from “likely Republican” to “leaning Republican.” That district was long held by Pat Tiberi, who stepped down last year to work at the private Ohio Business Roundtable.

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I can't vote for anyone that uses a McMansion cul-de-sac as a backdrop, never mind the rest of the "I'm so conservative my blood is red" rhetoric. 

 

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If you like gerrymandered districts and R vs R attack ads, the Ohio 12th race is for you!

 

28090230028_aae66f0cb9_d.jpg

 

Expect anything in the crazy 17-way race for Pat Tiberi’s seat in Congress

By Jack Torry and Jessica Wehrman, Dispatch Washington Bureau

Posted: May 6, 2018 at 6:50 AM

 

The race to replace U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi might include 17 major party candidates, but a brief review of the airwaves makes it clear that at least on the GOP end of the spectrum, this slugfest has become the equivalent of a proxy war between the Tiberi wing of the Republican Party and the Jim Jordan wing.

 

By most definitions, both Tiberi and Jordan are conservative.  But Tiberi, who resigned from the seat in January, was considered a more business-friendly lawmaker.  U.S. Rep. Jordan, a former wrestler who founded the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, is known more as an ideological warrior for the party’s far right.

 

Both men have poured time and resources into the race, with Tiberi running ads and donating money to state Sen. Troy Balderson of Zanesville, and Jordan’s allies endorsing and running ads for Melanie Leneghan, a trustee in Delaware County’s Liberty Township.  “It’s not even a proxy fight between Tiberi and Jordan,” said one Ohio Republican. “It’s a direct fight.”

 

In the final week of the campaign, outside groups have poured money into the race for Balderson and Leneghan.  Other outside groups aired ads supporting Republicans Tim Kane and state Sen. Kevin Bacon of Westerville.  In all, the candidates and groups had spent more than $2 million on radio and TV in Central Ohio as of this past Friday.

 

MORE: http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180506/expect-anything-in-crazy-17-way-race-for-pat-tiberis-seat-in-congress

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Jim Jordan wields little to no power in this state except in the 15-20 counties Northwest of Columbus and Southwest of Toledo

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Jim Jordan wields little to no power in this state except in the 15-20 counties Northwest of Columbus and Southwest of Toledo

 

You sure about that? Melanie Leneghan was a total unknown until he threw his support behind her.

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Jim Jordan wields little to no power in this state except in the 15-20 counties Northwest of Columbus and Southwest of Toledo

 

You sure about that? Melanie Leneghan was a total unknown until he threw his support behind her.

 

Jim Jordan is a huge figure in the state media cult of Fox News. 

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Jim Jordan wields little to no power in this state except in the 15-20 counties Northwest of Columbus and Southwest of Toledo

 

You sure about that? Melanie Leneghan was a total unknown until he threw his support behind her.

 

Jim Jordan is a huge figure in the state media cult of Fox News. 

 

I am positive. Losing by a narrow margin in the primary isn't exactly a sterling endorsement of an ability to influence state-wide elections.

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https://www.scribd.com/document/379408429/Read-ECU-poll-results

 

Balderson up 45%-43% over O'Connor in latest ECU poll for OH-12 special election.

 

Today's Dispatch is reporting that a Monmouth University poll has Republican State Sen. Troy Balderson of Zanesville leading 43 percent to 33 percent over Democrat Danny O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder in the special Aug. 7 election to fill Tiberi's OH-12 seat in the U.S. House:

 

http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180611/12th-district-new-poll-gay-dance-party-to-greet-pence-balderson-reverses-on-ecot

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^ That's more like what I expected from this district. Delaware County may be getting more purple and Franklin keeps getting more and more blue, but the inclusion of Licking and Morrow counties keeps that district in pretty solid red territory. Democrats would probably be polling a bit better if someone like John Russell (outsider, farmer) got the nomination instead.

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This isn't your father's (or your grandfather's) Columbus Dispatch anymore.  The Dispatch endorses Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, a Democrat, over State Sen. Troy Balderson, a Republican, in the August 7th special election for Tiberi's open OH-12 seat: 

http://www.dispatch.com/opinion/20180708/endorsement-for-12th-district-danny-oconnor-favored-for-open-seat

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Ohio’s special US House election last stop before November:  https://apnews.com/9ad4d7518db64c92ab4236f85bd3c30b

 

It'll be interesting to see how this August 7th special election turns out.  If this reliably red OH-12 house district that Republicans have controlled since 1983 and Trump carried by 11 points in 2016 flips Democratic (or is even a close call) it'll be another sign of a blue wave coming in the November mid-terms.

 

The above AP article gives an overview of the GOP and DEM candidates and a general lay of the land - especially about how both sides are pouring ad money into this race (as anyone in the Columbus TV viewing market can also attest to).  The below article from the Dispatch shows a potentially troubling development for the GOP in the OH-12 race - Democrats are far outnumbering Republicans in early voting:

 

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180720/democrats-requesting-far-more-ballots-in-oconnor-balderson-race

 

"Democrats in the pivotal 12th Congressional District special election are requesting absentee ballots at twice the rate as Republicans, a strong sign Democratic candidate Danny O’Connor will run an extremely competitive race next month against Republican Troy Balderson.  In what is becoming one of the most watched elections across the country, more than 5,300 Democrats in the seven counties that make up the district have requested absentee ballots so far, compared to 2,538 for Republicans."

 

"In Franklin County — the most Democratic portion of the district — on July 19th, 82 absentee ballots were mailed to Democrats who’d requested them and only 2 to Republicans.  On July 18th, 133 Democrats voted in person at the Franklin County elections board, compared to 15 Republicans.  So far, 78.5 percent of the absentee ballots requested by mail are by Democrats, while 84 percent of the in-person absentee votes were cast by Democrats."

 

"In heavily Republican Delaware County, of the 1,785 absentee ballots requested by July 19th, 62.1 percent were marked Democratic while 37.9 percent were marked Republican.  In Licking County, another strong GOP county, 57.3 percent of the 1,650 absentee ballots requested — in which party preference was declared — are marked Democrat."

 

"The August 7 race will decide which candidate fills the term through the end of the year.  The same two candidates face each other in November to see who holds the seat for the next two years."

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Things are going so well for Balderson he's calling in reinforcements this weekend from Donald Trump.

 

He had Pence "firing up the troops" in Newark on Monday - promising a "red wave":  http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180730/pence-says-red-wave-will-begin-in-ohios-special-congressional-election

 

Looks like Trump will be speaking at the Delaware County Fairgrounds Coliseum in Delaware 6:30PM on Saturday:  http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-to-stump-for-balderson-on-saturday-evening-in-delaware

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