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Omar is a constant gaffe machine who seems to repeatedly make the same mistakes and maintain dumb/questionable positions.  In that regard, she's not that much different than Biden, only without any of the benefit of the doubt that white people get.

Edited by jonoh81

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1 minute ago, jonoh81 said:

Omar is a constant gaffe machine who seems to repeatedly make the same mistakes and maintain dumb positions.  In that regard, she's not that much different than Biden, only without any of the benefit of the doubt that white people get.

 

Lol this is actually an excellent observation

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/25/us/duncan-hunter-affair-wife.html

 

 

The Republican Party seems to have no problem with Duncan Hunter maintaining his House seat.

Duncan Hunter should resign too (because his name is Duncan is enough of a reason alone). There is only so much the party can do to him though. If they have applied internal pressure and it has not worked, then that is his choice. It is the wrong one but his choice.

 

Katie hill had a choice, but she choose to resign to hopefully salvage a future with the party in some capacity. At the end it does come down to a personal choice of the candidate

Edited by Brutus_buckeye

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

You'll never guess who decided to shop around the revenge porn images of Hill.

George Popadopolous seemed to have advanced knowledge that her seat would be vacated. It's weird how this low level coffee boy seems to be in the know of all the rat f***ing of the GOP. But again rat****ing is what the GOP is about. 

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1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

Omar is a constant gaffe machine who seems to repeatedly make the same mistakes and maintain dumb/questionable positions.  In that regard, she's not that much different than Biden, only without any of the benefit of the doubt that white people get.

 

The "present" vote was dumb, but her comments about the timing of the vote seem perfectly relevant.  We condemned the Armenian genocide now because we don't like what Turkey is doing and we know they won't like being reminded of it.  I disagree with her to some degree, politics often is about timing, even if she doesn't like how that game is played.

 

But I give her more slack than you guys.  She's a freshman lawmaker.  She's a political novice.  It's kind of refreshing to see a politician make mistakes and have to take heat for it.  We'll see if she learns and gets better at this game.

 

Joe Biden has no excuses, he's been playing the game for 40+ years and any time he talks for more than 5 minutes he seems to me like he's going senile. Unlike Trump, he does seem to have empathy, but I also think he gets away with a lot more because he's a grandfather figure with a sympathetic past -- as well as being a wealthy white guy.  I've had enough of that.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Duncan Hunter should resign too (because his name is Duncan is enough of a reason alone).

 

OK, give this guy a YouTube channel where all he does is drive around Columbus looking for old Dunkin' locations from their two failed attempts to gain a major foothold in the local market. Episode #1: 2900 South Hamilton Rd. "How's that roof holding up?"

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9 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

This is...a really dumb excuse.

 

That said, the Aermenian genocide was over 100 years ago.  This is a symbolic vote, taken just weeks after Turkey invaded the Kurds in Syria.  The legislation was introduced in April but the vote was only taken now?

 

The timing is indeed what matters most about this resolution.  We are currently watching Turkey and hoping (since we can no longer act to prevent them) that they won't engage in genocide once again.  This vote is a way of saying "Hey, Turkey, we see you- and we remember what you are capable of."

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Beshear won't be able to get much done, but if he wins and VA gets a trifecta, the narrative about the Republican ship sinking will be top of mind for a lot of politicians who don't want to support Trump, but have to put on a happy face when asked about him.

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I hope you're all paying attention in re: Beshear. These are the type of candidates that can flip voters. Trump won KY by 16 in 2016 and endorsed Bevin at a rally in KY last night

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Rocky Adkins is the only candidate that could beat McConnell in 2020.  McGrath won't win the same margins in red counties that Beshear won tonight.

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Democrats on track to win the VA Senate tonight.

 

Projected to flip the VA House of Delegates, which would give Dems a trifecta in the state.


Very Stable Genius

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33 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

I hope you're all paying attention in re: Beshear. These are the type of candidates that can flip voters. Trump won KY by 16 in 2016 and endorsed Bevin at a rally in KY last night

This probably had more to do with how unpopular Bevin is in KY. 

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41 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

I hope you're all paying attention in re: Beshear. These are the type of candidates that can flip voters. Trump won KY by 16 in 2016 and endorsed Bevin at a rally in KY last night

Beshear winning means nothing for 2020. Kentucky will still go to Trump. Bevin was extremely unpopular. He acted like Trump in KY, but he really alienated people directly on the ground. It is one thing for Trump to act like an ass nationally, but Bevin essentially polarized every day Kentuckians. His battle with University of Louisville, all the state teachers, Medicaid and Obamacare exchange in the state, and also coming out publicly in support of tolls for the Brent Spence project (he is right on this issue and that is the only way a bridge will be built but voters don't want to hear it).  

 

Put it this way, Bevin may lose but the down ballot remained GOP in many areas. They just elected a GOP Sec of State in a battle with former KY House Speaker Stumbo. So Beshear winning means nothing in regards to 2020, outside of the fact that Bevin was a bad governor. There really is no national narrative here. 

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12 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Beshear winning means nothing for 2020. Kentucky will still go to Trump. Bevin was extremely unpopular. He acted like Trump in KY, but he really alienated people directly on the ground. It is one thing for Trump to act like an ass nationally, but Bevin essentially polarized every day Kentuckians. His battle with University of Louisville, all the state teachers, Medicaid and Obamacare exchange in the state, and also coming out publicly in support of tolls for the Brent Spence project (he is right on this issue and that is the only way a bridge will be built but voters don't want to hear it).  

 

Put it this way, Bevin may lose but the down ballot remained GOP in many areas. They just elected a GOP Sec of State in a battle with former KY House Speaker Stumbo. So Beshear winning means nothing in regards to 2020, outside of the fact that Bevin was a bad governor. There really is no national narrative here. 

 

The Democrats don't have to flip Kentucky in the presidential election in 2020. It's a warning sign about others who might want to protect Trump. He's clearly not as powerful as some think he is. His endorsement doesn't seem to help. So why should they stand up to him?

That's the narrative you can look at. Elections are always complicated, though. This isn't a literal referendum on Trump. It's partially about momentum, of which is on the Democrats' side after tonight. 

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22 minutes ago, Pablo said:

This probably had more to do with how unpopular Bevin is in KY. 

 

Yeah, Republicans took every other state office by significant margins.

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I just don't see any national narrative on this. It was solely much more to do with Bevin's toxic personality than anything else.

What was interesting was how close it actually was. The fact that Beshear did not beat him by 3-4 points bodes poorly for the Dems in KY.

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This will be the national narrative simply because he won and VA was a win, those were the races they were following prior to today, and those are the ones they will report on.  For us who actually pay attention, yeah we know Democrats continued to lose ground (in Kentucky) post having-a-black-man-lead-the-Democratic-party.

Edited by 10albersa
in kentucky

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9 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I just don't see any national narrative on this. It was solely much more to do with Bevin's toxic personality than anything else.

What was interesting was how close it actually was. The fact that Beshear did not beat him by 3-4 points bodes poorly for the Dems in KY.

 

Hahahahaha....ok.  The GOP guy loses and suddenly the narrative shifts to, "Well, the fact that he lost so close means it's bad for Dems." Truly no bottom to bad faith spinning from conservatives.

 

Trump won KY by 30% in 2016, endorsed Bevin, including holding a last minute rally there. Bevin was a Trumpite through and through. Trumpism was rejected in Kentucky, which, again, is not a state the Democrats will really challenge for in 2020.  But yeah, the bad news is for the Dems lmao.

 

Just like how the 2017 Virginia elections weren't a sign for 2018, right? Oh wait, it was a very predictive election for 2018. Hmm.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

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2 minutes ago, 10albersa said:

This will be the national narrative simply because he won and VA was a win, those were the races they were following prior to today, and those are the ones they will report on.  For us who actually pay attention, yeah we know Democrats continued to lose ground post having-a-black-man-lead-the-Democratic-party.

 

Flipped close to 300 state legislative seats since the start of 2017.


Very Stable Genius

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4 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Flipped close to 300 state legislative seats since the start of 2017.

 

I meant in KY, I know nationwide there's a great grassroots movement going on.

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10 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Hahahahaha....ok.  The GOP guy loses and suddenly the narrative shifts to, "Well, the fact that he lost so close means it's bad for Dems." Truly no bottom to bad faith spinning from conservatives.

 

Trump won KY by 30% in 2016, endorsed Bevin, including holding a last minute rally there. Bevin was a Trumpite through and through. Trumpism was rejected in Kentucky, which, again, is not a state the Democrats will really challenge for in 2020.  But yeah, the bad news is for the Dems lmao.

 

Just like how the 2017 Virginia elections weren't a sign for 2018, right? Oh wait, it was a very predictive election for 2018. Hmm.

It was a false narrative to begin with. Bevin was not a popular governor. He should have lost. The fact it was so close just shows how red KY is. Just like VA is Blue, the demographics of the NOVA suburbs pretty much determine that now.

 

The news acts like Bevin lost as a repudiation of Trump and that it spells trouble for Trump in KY next year. That is far from the truth.

There are many areas which point to Trump being in trouble, but Bevin losing KY is not one of them. It is pretty much like Roy Moore losing the Senate seat in Alabama. Bevin was almost an unelectable candidate after polarizing the local electorate like he did. 

 

you are welcome to believe whatever spin you want though, I know you always do.

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Wow Trumpeteers who believe he is GOD are getting a little nervous. Maybe if the GOP didn't sell its soul to the biggest scam artist in history meanwhile they claim to be the party of "family values" and "law and order". Those rallies look like a Parma party (I'm from Parma and can make this comment). KY is bad no matter how you spin it. He will obviously win KY in 2020. But Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are looking to be a little harder than originally thought. Thankful for those of us with brains and self awareness.

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It's funny how Republicans will just gloss over the fact that Bevin is unpopular.  But they don't care to shed any light on why he is unpopular. 

 

It's his embrace of Republican policy that makes him unpopular.  Cuts to medicaid, attacks on unions, and cuts to teacher pensions.  The only part of the Republican platform that is even popular is the culture war nonsens.  That's why they spend so much time hyping things that are barely an issue like PC, cancel culture, dog whistles, etc.  It's the only way for them to maks the unpopular policies. 

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3 minutes ago, ytown2ctown said:

Wow Trumpeteers who believe he is GOD are getting a little nervous. Maybe if the GOP didn't sell its soul to the biggest scam artist in history meanwhile they claim to be the party of "family values" and "law and order". Those rallies look like a Parma party (I'm from Parma and can make this comment). KY is bad no matter how you spin it. He will obviously win KY in 2020. But Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are looking to be a little harder than originally thought. Thankful for those of us with brains and self awareness.

 

I think Trump wins GA. The thing about MI and PA in 2016 were a combination of a bad candidate and complacency. You had an unpopular Dem Candidate who happened to completely ignore and forget about the voters in those states (especially MI and WI). I don't know about the candidate this time yet, but I doubt the dems will be taking those states for granted anymore.

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12 hours ago, 10albersa said:

Beshear won't be able to get much done, but if he wins and VA gets a trifecta, the narrative about the Republican ship sinking will be top of mind for a lot of politicians who don't want to support Trump, but have to put on a happy face when asked about him.

 

I think the Virginia trifecta is even more significant than the Beshear win in that regard, but yes, this is the first time I've actually felt slightly nervous about the bet I made here three years ago.  I'm glad that this is 2019 and not 2018.  We're officially in the "fourth quarter" now (by about a day) and the clock may favor me.  But Trump definitely gave up a third quarter touchdown that makes the game competitive going into the fourth.

 

15 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It was a false narrative to begin with. Bevin was not a popular governor. He should have lost. The fact it was so close just shows how red KY is. Just like VA is Blue, the demographics of the NOVA suburbs pretty much determine that now.

 

The news acts like Bevin lost as a repudiation of Trump and that it spells trouble for Trump in KY next year. That is far from the truth.

There are many areas which point to Trump being in trouble, but Bevin losing KY is not one of them. It is pretty much like Roy Moore losing the Senate seat in Alabama. Bevin was almost an unelectable candidate after polarizing the local electorate like he did. 

 

you are welcome to believe whatever spin you want though, I know you always do.

 

I don't think most news outlets are suggesting Kentucky is in play in the 2020 presidential election.  But this does show that Trump's endorsement is not bulletproof even in Trump country.  That gives Senators a hint of political cover if they're tempted to break ranks in the impeachment inquiry.  But more specifically here with respect to Beshear's win: Bevin ran as Trump-like candidate.  And it didn't play well.

 

I don't want to get too far off topic, but consider whether a Democratic victory over a candidate like Bevin would be considered a rejection of the Republican president if the president were Jeb.  Counterfactuals are always imperfect but I think there's a strong case that this narrative tying the governor and the president would be a much harder sell and fewer outlets would be attempting it.

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11 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Beshear winning means nothing for 2020. Kentucky will still go to Trump. Bevin was extremely unpopular. He acted like Trump in KY, but he really alienated people directly on the ground. It is one thing for Trump to act like an ass nationally, but Bevin essentially polarized every day Kentuckians. His battle with University of Louisville, all the state teachers, Medicaid and Obamacare exchange in the state, and also coming out publicly in support of tolls for the Brent Spence project (he is right on this issue and that is the only way a bridge will be built but voters don't want to hear it).  

 

Put it this way, Bevin may lose but the down ballot remained GOP in many areas. They just elected a GOP Sec of State in a battle with former KY House Speaker Stumbo. So Beshear winning means nothing in regards to 2020, outside of the fact that Bevin was a bad governor. There really is no national narrative here. 

 

LOL

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7 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

 

 

 

I don't think most news outlets are suggesting Kentucky is in play in the 2020 presidential election.  But this does show that Trump's endorsement is not bulletproof even in Trump country.  That gives Senators a hint of political cover if they're tempted to break ranks in the impeachment inquiry.  But more specifically here with respect to Beshear's win: Bevin ran as Trump-like candidate.  And it didn't play well.

 

I agree with you on this. 

 

I personally think if voters are energized in 2020, Trump really does not have a chance at victory. It will probably come down to who the nominee is. I have a hard time seeing some of the suburban voters who hate Trump voting for someone like Warren or Sanders. Now they may stay home or vote 3rd party but if the Dems get too progressive, they could hurt their chances. A more moderate mainstream candidate like Biden or Klobuchar wins PA, MI, WI and possibly even OH. - These candidates may not play as well in say Florida, or even in the liberal areas like CA or NY, but those are Blue anyway. Ultimately, you win PA and MI back and the rest does not matter.

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2 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

You disagree that Kentucky is in play in 2020?

 

No - I think Trump will win KY. 

 

However, Bevin wasn't down 17 pts, like people said. Moreover, he had unwavering and very public support from Trump - the GOP candidates down ballot did not. Bevin certainly had his issues and was polarizing, but you literally just described Trump's GOP. 

 

Trump probably doesn't have to sweat this one out. But McConnell may... Moreover, the first Dem governor is 20 years is nothing to sneeze at - and the bottom line is, impeachment isn't as much of a base-rallying issue as the GOP thought. To quote Trump on Monday - "a vote for Beshear is a vote to impeach me." 

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4 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

You disagree that Kentucky is in play in 2020?

 

I think he disagrees about that being the central point here.  His point, with which I agree, is not that Kentucky is in play, it is that it is irrelevant.

 

The Democratic Party is happy to have Beshear in the Kentucky governor's mansion but they are not going to be playing for Kentucky in 2020.  They are going to be playing hard for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

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Just now, Gramarye said:

 

I think he disagrees about that being the central point here.  His point, with which I agree, is not that Kentucky is in play, it is that it is irrelevant.

 

The Democratic Party is happy to have Beshear in the Kentucky governor's mansion but they are not going to be playing for Kentucky in 2020.  They are going to be playing hard for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

 

Bingo - and this shows what kind of candidates can win those areas. 

 

Moreover, more coal mines have closed in Ohio under Trump than Obama... Southeast Ohio might not be the bastion of Trumpism that it was in 2016

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Gramarye nailed it here IMO. No one is suggesting Trump will lose KY. But he campaigned hard for Bevin, and couldn't get him the win. It will definitely give current members of Congress and Governors a second thought about embracing Trump. It may also give them more of a reason to look at impeachment in an objective way.

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1 minute ago, YABO713 said:

 

No - I think Trump will win KY. 

 

Moreover, the first Dem governor is 20 years is nothing to sneeze at - and the bottom line is, impeachment isn't as much of a base-rallying issue as the GOP thought. To quote Trump on Monday - "a vote for Beshear is a vote to impeach me." 

 

the first Dem governor in 20 years? Are you talking about KY? Because Beshear was governor before Bevin. Prior to Beshear there was Ernie Fletcher in the GOP for one term and then prior to him was 8 years as a Dem governor in KY.

 

I agree that KY is a very polarized state with the applachian area and the rest of the state, however, it is a unique area where Dem politics has survived longer there than in many other Southern States. The KY statehouse has been controlled by Democrats for a significant period in the last 20 years. The KY Legislature was split until 2018 when Republicans took control. My only point in KY is that it is hard to draw a national narrative to what is going on in the state because it has always done its own thing. If this were say Florida or North Carolina you can draw a better trend line.

 

I think VA is more significant than KY, outside of the fact that what happened in VA was not unexpected, it more or less reaffirms the national trend. If you want to look for symbols, I would focus on VA and even the Philly suburbs more than anything as trends for 2020.

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2 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It will probably come down to who the nominee is. I have a hard time seeing some of the suburban voters who hate Trump voting for someone like Warren or Sanders. Now they may stay home or vote 3rd party but if the Dems get too progressive, they could hurt their chances. A more moderate mainstream candidate like Biden or Klobuchar wins PA, MI, WI and possibly even OH. - These candidates may not play as well in say Florida, or even in the liberal areas like CA or NY, but those are Blue anyway. Ultimately, you win PA and MI back and the rest does not matter.

 

Maybe Sanders.  But sight unseen, I'll guess that Warren has a lot of support in the suburbs and in fact it's probably responsible for a lot of her recent rise.  A Harvard-educated technocratic planner is right up the alley for a lot of leafy genteel suburbs.  And while social conservatives have good reason to be concerned with a lot of her policy positions on social justice activism, those aren't generally what she has led with; her preferred punching bag has been big banks, insurers, and other financial industry heavyweights.  They don't always even have strong political support from their own rank-and-file employees (who might well be there just for the paycheck that lets them live in those aforementioned suburbs).

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VA is the big story.  Dems will now draw the electoral maps and they can become the 38th state to ratify the ERA.  Although the ERA thing may require a Supreme Court decision. 

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11 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Moreover, more coal mines have closed in Ohio under Trump than Obama... Southeast Ohio might not be the bastion of Trumpism that it was in 2016

 

LOL Back in April 2018, in the Trump thread, I was noting that Trump would have the greenest presidency in history whether he wanted to or not.  There's only so far you can fight the market.

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12 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Bingo - and this shows what kind of candidates can win those areas. 

 

Moreover, more coal mines have closed in Ohio under Trump than Obama... Southeast Ohio might not be the bastion of Trumpism that it was in 2016

The tariffs that are hurting farmers probably doesn't help either. 

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-Warren definitely can win if she plays up her Oklahoma and schoolteacher roots in the general election, but it will be close.

-I doubt Bernie could win this time around, his time was 2016.  He'd run up the score in cities and college towns, but suburbs wouldn't be as blue as they've been in 2016-2019

-Biden or Pete would easily win (the electoral college).  Heck, I'd bet both win IN and OH based on last night's results.

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^^ 53% in such a conservative(most religious state)as Mississippi, that is not a great margin. 

 

*I always think of that Bobby Gentry song "Mississippi Delta" when I think Mississippi. lol

 

M..I..Double S I Double S I Double P I

Edited by Toddguy

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Republicans telling us not to draw broader conclusions about the Kentucky race because Bevin was an unconventional executive with a prickly personality and tendency towards controversy is a real exercise in self-delusion.


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, freefourur said:

VA is the big story.  Dems will now draw the electoral maps and they can become the 38th state to ratify the ERA.  Although the ERA thing may require a Supreme Court decision. 

 

In Kentucky, Medicaid access will be expanded, meaning hundreds of thousands of people will get healthcare coverage.  A full FIVE PERCENT of the state's adult population will have their voting rights restored.


Very Stable Genius

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13 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

Republicans telling us not to draw broader conclusions about the Kentucky race because Bevin was an unconventional executive with a prickly personality and tendency towards controversy is a real exercise in self-delusion.

 KY is a state that is 1) Agricultural 2) Healthcare 3)Education/Government jobs. These are the 3 primary employment drivers of the state.


The Agricultural areas went for Bevin. Bevin antagonized Healhcare workers and educators and other government employees throughout his term. If you have any wonder why they turned against him, that is why.  

 

So do you think the result in Kentucky bodes well for the Dems winning it in the 2020 election?

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