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Hurricane Irma

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Still a long way out, so the cone of uncertainty has a lot of narrowing left to do. Definitely bears watching....

 

These are the highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting. #Irma is another retiree candidate.


"The boss rolls up in a new Lamborghini and tells his staff 'The greatest part about America is that hard work breeds wealth. So if you work hard and dedicate yourself tirelessly to the task at hand, I can get another new Lamborghini next year.'” -- Overheard in a Cleveland bar.

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I saw the latest GFS weather model run. It showed Irma being a 896mb low about 500mi off the coast of Myrtle Beach in about 12 days. That's impressive by super typhoon standards and would be one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever.

 

Long way to go for the forecast to be the real deal but if it happens, I'm dragging the family to Assateague to watch the incredible wave action. Should be comparable to Hawaii.

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896!  :strong:


"The boss rolls up in a new Lamborghini and tells his staff 'The greatest part about America is that hard work breeds wealth. So if you work hard and dedicate yourself tirelessly to the task at hand, I can get another new Lamborghini next year.'” -- Overheard in a Cleveland bar.

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This is very likely an East Coast event.  How strong it gets or is when it gets near is less certain.

 

Yeah, the previous GFS run had it making landfall over the Outer Banks then running up the Chesapeake. No bueno for me and everyone from DC to NY.

 

Thinking Sunday the models will be more accurate. We shall see.

 

Models are models. Fascinating what-if scenarios for sure but we won't have an more accurate picture of the East Coast for at least week and more likely closer to 10 days. It very well could not head this way either and move towards the Gulf. It's still almost a week away from the eastern Caribbean Islands.

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I saw the latest GFS weather model run. It showed Irma being a 896mb low about 500mi off the coast of Myrtle Beach in about 12 days. That's impressive by super typhoon standards and would be one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever.

 

 

Ah, millibar talk reminds me of the late John Hope.

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175 mph... That's the top speed of Hurricane Wilma and where the concept of a Category 5 maxes out. If the wind gains anymore speed, we're going to have to invent and label Category 6.

 

These natural disasters are just getting worse and worse.

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These natural disasters are just getting worse and worse.

 

I know this is very intense for the Atlantic but the deepest pressure typhoon ever recorded was all the way back in 1979 and had top winds of 190mph. Also aircraft recon wasn't able to record the strongest winds in the NE quadrant before the 11AM update so the surface wind speed is a guestimate based on satellite data and other info from the recon flight. We'll get an idea soon if this storm is an actual strong Cat 5 when it approaches the islands.

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Those stubborn Floridians better all evacuate, this time. Shepard Smith doesn't want to be sent down there on his off-day to report on all the deaths when he has better sh!t to do.

 

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These natural disasters are just getting worse and worse.

 

I know this is very intense for the Atlantic but the deepest pressure typhoon ever recorded was all the way back in 1979 and had top winds of 190mph. Also aircraft recon wasn't able to record the strongest winds in the NE quadrant before the 11AM update so the surface wind speed is a guestimate based on satellite data and other info from the recon flight. We'll get an idea soon if this storm is an actual strong Cat 5 when it approaches the islands.

Hoping that DR and Cuba land masses can slow it down some.

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I just thought of a great idea!

 

Instead of building a border wall all across the southern border, why don't we build man-made islands designed to curb heavy winds coming toward our mainland. Are illegal immigrants, most of which don't come here by walking across the boarder, really a bigger threat than category 6 hurricanes? I think not. As much as we ultimately spend on disaster relief each year to keep rebuilding the same damn communities over and over, it seems to me that it would save us all money in the long run.

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Wow. Hurricane #Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment. Redefining the rules.

 

If only someone had warned us that hurricane intensity would increase if ocean temperatures kept rising!

 

https://t.co/e4hPjQt159


"The boss rolls up in a new Lamborghini and tells his staff 'The greatest part about America is that hard work breeds wealth. So if you work hard and dedicate yourself tirelessly to the task at hand, I can get another new Lamborghini next year.'” -- Overheard in a Cleveland bar.

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Some don't like scientists talking re #climate change during disasters, so before #Irma strikes: Caribbean water temps are abnormally high. https://t.co/JvglgrebEu


"The boss rolls up in a new Lamborghini and tells his staff 'The greatest part about America is that hard work breeds wealth. So if you work hard and dedicate yourself tirelessly to the task at hand, I can get another new Lamborghini next year.'” -- Overheard in a Cleveland bar.

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The first damage reports are coming in from Saint Martin.  It looks like there is going to be massive damage on that island along with every other island in Irma's path.  The French government reported that all four government buildings on St. Martin (some of the sturdiest on the island) have been destroyed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm

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Last night the eye passed directly over the obscure island of Barbuda.  So hours of 150mph+ winds, then 20 minutes of total calmness, then another few hours of 150mph+ winds.  No way anything is still standing after that dose of punishment. 

 

https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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The first damage reports are coming in from Saint Martin.  It looks like there is going to be massive damage on that island along with every other island in Irma's path.  The French government reported that all four government buildings on St. Martin (some of the sturdiest on the island) have been destroyed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm

 

I wonder how much the property was insured for...

 

http://www.foxnews.com/real-estate/2017/08/04/donald-trump-s-st-martin-vacation-compound-gets-11-million-price-cut.html

 

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^yeah, it's fish food now.  About 10 years ago I photographed some rich guy's condo.  He had photos of his vacation house prominently displayed all around the condo.  He really wanted you to know that he owned property in St. Maartin. 

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Posted w/o comment....

 

Wow...

 

Few things irk me more than snarky remarks from Police and Sheriff Departments on a power-trip.

 

Not only does it encourage someone with a warrant to keep themselves in danger but it doesn't seem necessary to check everyone's ID and run their criminal background. He also said that they're running IDs so that sex offenders and predators won't be allowed in them.

 

First of all, you have any idea how easy it is to be a sex offender? That term is so broad and many states need to change their laws to better differentiate things like rape, statutory rape (which is often consensual) and indecent exposure. Things like urinating in public, flashing your breasts in public, having consensual sex with someone who is only a couple years younger than you, can all cause you to be a 'sex offender.' I guess those folks should all be left to die in a flood.

 

I could understand patting people down and inspecting their bags in this case, but it stops about there. If they're having police there anyway, checking IDs and running everyone's background, they could just have the police spend that time guarding the shelters to make sure nothing illicit is going on. If they don't have the man-power, use national guard, state troopers, etc. Running background checks only does so much anyway because there's always a first time that a sexual predator makes a move...or at least gets caught.

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Incredible... Video of a flight through the eye of #Irma on #NOAA42. Flights on both the WP-3D Orion and G-IV #NOAA49 continue. Credit Nick Underwood/NOAA https://t.co/9ini4bOnYF


"The boss rolls up in a new Lamborghini and tells his staff 'The greatest part about America is that hard work breeds wealth. So if you work hard and dedicate yourself tirelessly to the task at hand, I can get another new Lamborghini next year.'” -- Overheard in a Cleveland bar.

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Not only does it encourage someone with a warrant to keep themselves in danger but it doesn't seem necessary to check everyone's ID and run their criminal background. He also said that they're running IDs so that sex offenders and predators won't be allowed in them.

 

First of all, you have any idea how easy it is to be a sex offender? That term is so broad and many states need to change their laws to better differentiate things like rape, statutory rape (which is often consensual) and indecent exposure. Things like urinating in public, flashing your breasts in public, having consensual sex with someone who is only a couple years younger than you, can all cause you to be a 'sex offender.' I guess those folks should all be left to die in a flood.

 

You should listen to "In The Dark" podcast.  The mother of the victim of "Jacob's Law" (which requires sex offender registration) wants it changed.


Very Stable Genius

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Not only does it encourage someone with a warrant to keep themselves in danger but it doesn't seem necessary to check everyone's ID and run their criminal background. He also said that they're running IDs so that sex offenders and predators won't be allowed in them.

 

First of all, you have any idea how easy it is to be a sex offender? That term is so broad and many states need to change their laws to better differentiate things like rape, statutory rape (which is often consensual) and indecent exposure. Things like urinating in public, flashing your breasts in public, having consensual sex with someone who is only a couple years younger than you, can all cause you to be a 'sex offender.' I guess those folks should all be left to die in a flood.

 

You should listen to "In The Dark" podcast.  The mother of the victim of "Jacob's Law" (which requires sex offender registration) wants it changed.

 

Shoot me a link.

 

It probably won't go anywhere because people refuse to have serious public conversations about sex. It's too uncomfortable, even though it shouldn't be. But yeah, if you think about it, it's basically a human rights violation, denying (at least a lot of them) shelter. Florida is actually one of the worst states when it comes to requirements for being a registered sex offender. If you're 17 and you send nude pictures to someone, you can become a registered sex offender for life because you're distributing child pornography. Consensual sex between an 18 year old and a minor lands you a rape charge and requires that you're registered as a sex offender. I know it makes everyone uncomfortable to talk about it - mostly because no one wants to give off the impression that they're a pedo themselves but our biological functions in some ways just naturally run counter to some modern laws regarding what constitutes pedophilia and statutory rape. Public urination is the most ridiculous of them all. When you gotta go, you gotta go. Bathrooms aren't always around and it's not like cities make public restroom accessibility any sort of priority.

 

I'm getting off-topic here but my point is just that it really shouldn't be a concern when providing shelter during a hurricane. Those shelters should be monitored around the clock by guards anyway because completely normal people can loose their mind and act crazy during times of crisis. Even if they screened everyone, I'd be uncomfortable staying in one, knowing it wasn't closely monitored. I thought that's what the National Guard and police were for. The police are in the business of catching people, not protecting them.

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^ i know I'm taking this thread a bit off topic but I have never been a fan of sex offender registries.  They make nobody safer and I feel that they violate the rights of a person who has already served a sentence.  Sex offenders also have very low recidivism rates.  Now back to the hurricane.

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Well, there will be a lot of people peeing and taking dumps outside after a hurricane. Wouldn't it suck to wind up a sex offender because you eliminated outside due to your house being reduced to a pile of rubble?

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Not only does it encourage someone with a warrant to keep themselves in danger but it doesn't seem necessary to check everyone's ID and run their criminal background. He also said that they're running IDs so that sex offenders and predators won't be allowed in them.

 

First of all, you have any idea how easy it is to be a sex offender? That term is so broad and many states need to change their laws to better differentiate things like rape, statutory rape (which is often consensual) and indecent exposure. Things like urinating in public, flashing your breasts in public, having consensual sex with someone who is only a couple years younger than you, can all cause you to be a 'sex offender.' I guess those folks should all be left to die in a flood.

 

You should listen to "In The Dark" podcast.  The mother of the victim of "Jacob's Law" (which requires sex offender registration) wants it changed.

 

Shoot me a link.

 

 

https://www.apmreports.org/in-the-dark

 

Also available on iTunes, Stitcher, Google Music, etc.

 

It starts off with Jacob's case and then moves into some of the bigger issues later (if I recall - I listened last year) - sex offender registration, clearance rates, etc.


Very Stable Genius

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These evacuation articles are hilarious.  10+ million people obviously cannot drive all at once north to wait it out at that well-marked Pecan & Peanut truck stop in Georgia. 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/06/us/hurricane-irma-evacuation-florida/index.html

 

Nobody stops and asks why the hell we let this apparently inescapable wasteland get overgrown with 20 million people, when it had just 4 million or so in 1950 -- most of them in the northern and somewhat-less vulnerable northern third. 

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Wow. Hurricane #Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment. Redefining the rules.

 

If only someone had warned us that hurricane intensity would increase if ocean temperatures kept rising!

 

https://t.co/e4hPjQt159

 

I read sea temps are 29.3 C, which is pretty normal. 29.3=84.4 F.

 

Average Temps

https://www.seatemperature.org/caribbean-sea

August 29 84.2

September 29.4 84.9

October 28.8 83.9

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The first damage reports are coming in from Saint Martin.  It looks like there is going to be massive damage on that island along with every other island in Irma's path.  The French government reported that all four government buildings on St. Martin (some of the sturdiest on the island) have been destroyed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm

They got blasted along with some other islands. Kudos to these carriers,

 

IDT DR is going to slow it down much. Last hope is directly over Cuba before Florida.

BTW major Kudos to these airlines,

 

WestJet, Air Canada and Air Transat sending planes to get travellers out of Hurricane Irma's path

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hurrica...blic-1.4276658

 

Probably an extra 20-25 737's A330's flew down there today to Punta Cana and Puerto Plata.

 

A Delta jet flew into San Juan PR, filled up the plane and was gone in 25 minutes.

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Sir Richard Branson is riding out the storm on the island he owns, which is poised to sustain a direct hit:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Necker+Island/@18.527661,-64.3623828,1812m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x8c0580926558d579:0xfd4941d20c522943!8m2!3d18.5267666!4d-64.3586276

 

I can already see the fake news writers...if he lives they will publish stories saying he's dead.  If he dies, they'll publish stories saying he's actually alive.  He is risen, even. 

 

The amount of fake weather news on the web is shocking. 

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The amount of fake weather news on the web is shocking.

 

In a similar vein, why is Weather.com one of the worst major websites in existence today? It's always impossibly slow, presumably from the unbelievable amount of clickbait and advertisements on every page of that site.


“To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”

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Google Earth shows the center of any hurricane whereas Google Maps does not.  It's a really useful resource because the actual pinpoint center of these things is the "kill zone".  Right now the center of the eye is 45 miles north of the Puerto Rico coast, so it looks like people there are going to be pretty safe.  I'd estimate that the 5-mile radius is certain death (two doses of 150+mph winds), 10-miles is catastrophic damage, but the 20-mile radius is probably right where your house should physically survive unless something especially unlucky happens. 

 

peurtorico_zpsuoec39ws.jpg

 

 

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The amount of fake weather news on the web is shocking.

 

In a similar vein, why is Weather.com one of the worst major websites in existence today? It's always impossibly slow, presumably from the unbelievable amount of clickbait and advertisements on every page of that site.

 

Two reasons, I'd say:

 

1. A lot of seniors are willing to put up with that crap because they think that's how the internet works.

 

2. They want people to watch the Weather Channel instead of using the internet. That's why local TV news websites are generally terrible.

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