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2018 Gubernatorial Election

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Dayton Mayor announces run for governor

 

pic-econ-summit-whaley-web*480xx1000-563-0-42.jpg

 

Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley is officially running for Ohio governor.

 

Whaley made the announcement Monday morning, throwing her hat into the ring to replace Republican Gov. John Kasich, who is term-limited. In her announcement, Whaley said the growth of jobs and return of the manufacturing base in west Ohio could be mirrored statewide. She also listed curbing the state's heroin epidemic as a priority she would take if elected.

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As of now, she joined former Rep. Betty Sutton, State Sen. Joe Schiavoni, former State Rep. Connie Pillich and Dave Kiefer as Democrats who have declared for the election. For the Republicans, Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, Secretary of State Jon Husted, U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor have all declared their candidacy.

 

More below:

http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2017/05/08/dayton-mayor-announces-run-for-governor.html

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So far, women are dominating the Democratic field between Whaley, Pillich, and Sutton! This race is going to be a big one to watch in 2018. There are already so many serious candidates who have declared on both sides. I know it's early, but who is even considered the front-runner for either side at this point?

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I'm not going to pretend to know how a race 18 months from now is going to play out. We have no idea how national politics will affect this race, what voters will be thinking in a year and a half, or what kind of campaigns are being run. We'll see.

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^ Don't see him jumping in unless Trump fires him. Cant see him leaving before his term is done because otherwise, Trump will be able to appoint his person to the office and gut it. I think there will be a lot of pressure on Cordray to stay in the role to prevent that from happening.

 

Too many National Democrats would put pressure on him to keep him from running for Ohio Governor.

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I think Richard Cordray would make a great candidate, but on the other hand, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has become a huge target and has become highly politicized so I wonder if that would hurt him.

 

Does anyone think Mike Coleman would make a good candidate? He has name recognition and was a popular mayor over a quickly growing city for pretty long period of time. Admittedly, I'm a bit removed from Columbus politics so I don't know much about him aside from that. On paper, though, he sounds like he could have a decent chance.

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Does anyone think Mike Coleman would make a good candidate? He has name recognition and was a popular mayor over a quickly growing city for pretty long period of time. Admittedly, I'm a bit removed from Columbus politics so I don't know much about him aside from that. On paper, though, he sounds like he could have a decent chance.

 

I'd like to see him try again (he ran an aborted campaign for the 2006 election before dropping out and endorsing Strickland).  I'm not sure he is that well-known outside of Central Ohio, but he might be the most competitive candidate the Dems could field for 2018 (outside of Cordray).  Coleman is back in private practice and doesn't seem too interested in the Governor's race right now.  But he's 62, and if he was interested in the governorship, 2018 seems like a now-or-never time for him.

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As a Cincinnati resident, I've heard a lot more about Nan Whaley than Mike Coleman. Not sure how well known Nan Whaley is in other corners of the state. I couldn't name the mayor of any Ohio city except Dayton and Cincinnati, though. I'm sure that has to do with the proximity between Dayton and Cincinnati, but she seems like a pretty progressive candidate.

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Yesterday was the first time I've ever been aware of Nan Whaley.  I've heard of John Cranley and Frank Jackson - but that's probably due to being active here at UO.  And that's the big problem when Democratic mayors run for statewide office.  They're very well-known within their own city/region, but virtual unknowns in the rest of the state.

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So if I had to make a top 3 list of the Democrats' strongest statewide players, I'd probably say Richard Cordray, Michael Coleman, and Jennifer Brunner. Right now it seems like none of them are interested in running (though I guess the jury is still out on Cordray).

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I heard that Brunner after her last race had soured on running for office. Don't know anything on Coleman. I still think Cordray is a no because of the pressure from the national party to stay in his current role

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Handicapping the Ohio Governor's race (actually these are John K. Hartman's ratings, from the 'Columbus Free Press')

http://columbusfreepress.com/article/columbusmediainsider-perfect-tv-ad-kasich-runs-ohio-ditch

 

 

OHIO GOVERNOR DEMOCRAT

 

1. Ex-State Rep. Connie Pillich. Gave best speech at Ohio Democratic Party Legacy Dinner. Spoke from the heart without notes.

 

2. Ex-U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton. Gave second best speech. Spoke from heart with some notes.

 

3. State Sen. Joe Schiavoni. Read speech. Not ready for prime time.     

 

4. Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Showed high energy hosting hospitality room before speech.

 

5. Ex-U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich. The onetime "Boy Mayor" of Cleveland is touring Ohio taking the overfunded, under-educating charter schools to the woodshed.

 

6. Richard Cordray. Fading into oblivion. If runs, should be for attorney general.

 

OHIO GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN

 

1. Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. If Kasich quits to return to Fox News, she becomes incumbent and front-runner.

 

2. U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci. Trump's favorite.

 

3. AG Mike DeWine. Epic fail. No arrests in Piketon Massacre a year later.

 

4. SOS Jon Husted. May be plotting run for U.S. Senate instead.

 

5. J.D. Vance. Gave a big speech last month to Toledo Republicans. Also may be plotting run for U.S. Senate.   

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My take on the current declared (or presumed to soon be declared) candidates:

 

On the Dems--

-Richard Cordray is by far the Dems' best chance for Governor with a past history of winning statewide races and statewide name recognition, but everything for him seems to hinge upon if and when Trump fires him from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau since he apparently will not leave on his own, apparently preferring to fulfill his appointed duties. The longer he delays making a formal declaration, however, the more he will be at a fundraising disadvantage against opponents within his own party, as well as versus whichever Republican he faces in the General Election.

 

-Connie Pillich has never been elected to statewide office but has served in the Ohio House. Outside of SW Ohio, she has little name recognition. She's likely the weakest of all current Democratic candidates and would get demolished in the general election only slightly less than Ed FitzGerald did. Possible Lt. Gov candidate.

 

-Betty Sutton has never been elected to statewide office but has served in the Ohio House. Outside of NE Ohio, she has little name recognition, although she did serve a few terms in Congress. She could play up her Labor Union ties, but I don't see how much mileage that alone would get her. She fares somewhat better than Pillich in the general election, but still loses by a wide margin. Possible Lt. Gov candidate, also should perhaps consider running for Ohio AG or Secretary of State.

 

-Joe Schiavoni is the Dems' Ohio Senate Minority Leader. He's in one of the Democrats' highest profile positions and has been somewhat vocal, but he doesn't seem to be well-established in Ohio politics yet and has limited statewide recognition. He also hasn't been elected to statewide office. Probably should focus on serving out his time in the Ohio Senate and then consider running for a state line office like Sec. of State or AG.

 

-Nan Whaley, Dayton's Mayor and an established leader in the Montgomery County Democratic Party, she's essentially a City Council President rather than a city mayor in the traditional sense, based upon Dayton's government structure. Her strongest presence and name recognition is in the Dayton-Cincinnati area, but not much beyond it. She's never been elected to statewide office. She might be the second strongest candidate the Dems have to offer after Cordray, though that could be quite a gap to bridge. If Cordray doesn't officially enter the race, she's the most likely to become the Dems' nominee. If he does enter, she could become his running mate for Lt. Gov.

 

On the GOP--

-Mike DeWine has the strongest statewide name recognition and established history. He's the current Ohio Attorney General and was formerly a Senator (losing to Sherrod Brown) as well as Lt. Gov (under Voinovich). He will be the candidate to beat in the Republican primary election, and it may very well be his race to lose in the general election since the Republicans seem to be as strong as the Democrats are weak when it comes to statewide politics. Cordray facing him would actually be a rematch of sorts dating back to when Cordray lost to DeWine for AG during the 2010 election. At 70, this is probably his last hurrah, win or lose.

 

-Jon Husted, like DeWine, does have statewide recognition as current Secretary of State and former speaker of the Ohio House, though obviously not as long of a history. Some of his past controversies around voting access could come up as fodder to be used against him though, even in the GOP primaries by competitors within his own party. He's term-limited as Sec. of State, so he'll either end up being Ohio's next governor, or else will be returning to private life for a few years. Possible future Senate candidate perhaps. He's second in current strength behind DeWine, and there's a bit of a gap between the two of them.

 

-Jim Renacci, currently a NE Ohio Congressman and former mayor of the Akron suburb of Wadsworth seems to be gambling on people wanting a "Trumpesque" businessman-governor here. His bigger challenge may simply be building statewide name recognition. This is his first statewide race, but few people know of him outside of NE Ohio. He could end up being a running mate for Lt. Gov, or perhaps running for State Auditor down the road if he loses in the primary. With more established name recognition and past experience at the state level, he'd probably be a stronger candidate.

 

-As for Mary Taylor, being Lt. Governor isn't an assured stepping stone into the Governorship. Taylor hasn't exactly been much of a standout in the role, or in anything much else she's done politically from State Auditor to serving in the Ohio House. Everyone knows Kasich is governor, but most people couldn't tell you who the Lt. Governor is, or what he/she even does. Even if Kasich were to vacate office within the next six months to make way for her, she'd really have to make a big and sustained splash for people to see her as anything but a placeholder for a lame duck governor whose also been an absentee for the past year and a half. Granted, Kasich has kinda set the bar low for the next officeholder in that particular regard. Still though, I don't see how Taylor gets out of the primaries against more seasoned and higher profile opponents. I see her disappearing completely into private life after her term ends in 2019.

 

Any Republican who wins the Primary though basically has at least a 2:1 advantage over the Democratic nominee, so the Republican primary result is a fairly strong indicator of who the next governor will be regardless of the general election.

 

Possible Wild Card--

-Former Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman would also potentially be a strong statewide candidate for the Dems, and he could run on his successful tenure and legacy as the mayor of the state's one truly thriving city, but he seems to have expressed very little interest at this point in getting back into politics. He also might not too enamored with the prospect of having to help rebuild the state-level Democratic Party. If he does the race and leverages his legacy to generate support for his candidacy from residents throughout the metro, as well as the Central Ohio business community, he could be quite formidable, approaching, or perhaps even surpassing Cordray's strengths as a candidate. Most likely, he stays out of politics and spends his golden years in private life.

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^^ Good to see the Columbus Free Press is as biased/clueless/irrelevant as ever. I'd take their ratings and flip them almost upside-down if you want to get the real picture of the race.

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Yeah that Columbus Free Press "analysis" was garbage. NEOBuckeye's was much better. I really think Coleman might be one of the best shots the Dems have. It's a pity he doesn't seem to be interested. Maybe he's just waiting on the sidelines, and will enter the race if someone like Cordray doesn't?

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I honestly don't think Richard Cordray is the best shot. Did anyone see what happened in 2016? The Dems need someone with a lot of energy and some radical proposals to better the lives of Ohioans. Not a moderate career politician like Clinton. People on this board might like those types the most, but I'm not convinced a Washington insider is going to get anyone excited to turn out for the Dems.

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Things seem to be shaping up so far as I've predicted.

 

-DeWine and Taylor have both recently made their declarations to run for governor, or at least have declared their intent to make them. DeWine will likely cruise out to an early lead in the polls on name recognition alone--he's very well-known across the state, even in Cleveland/NE Ohio largely thanks to his old friend, the late Gov. and Mayor, George Voinovich. DeWine will have to defend his long establishment career against attacks from Renacci, who will try to portray himself as an "outsider" with business experience. DeWine will also trade blows with Husted, and the occasional jab with Taylor.

 

-While Taylor might have once wanted Kasich to campaign on her behalf, she may actually want to distance herself from him now, since his approval ratings have apparently been heading south with all of the time he has spent out of state on his unofficial 2020 POTUS campaign. Not to mention the growing perception among Ohioans that he is out of touch, if not tone deaf to the needs of their communities, while county coroners are calling in trailers to store the bodies of heroin OD victims.

 

-An even bigger challenge for Taylor will be the fact that she has been a poor fundraiser throughout her political career, winning mostly on the relative strength and backing of the Ohio Republican Party vs. any of the Democratic opponents she has faced. But she's never been in a heated primary against experienced opponents within her own party like DeWine and Husted. Between this and trying to bring people up to speed on who she is and what she has been doing for them the past 6+ years as Lt. Gov under an increasingly aloof Kasich, she has her work cut out for her.

 

-As for the Democrats, there's been nothing but crickets from Cordray's corner. I still wouldn't completely rule out an entry from him, even at the last minute if he gets booted from his position by Trump, but the longer he holds out, the less time he'll have to actively fundraise. That alone could put him at a significant disadvantage in a prospective General Election matchup with DeWine, presumably, or else another Republican opponent. It's pretty much now or never if he wants to have even odds of winning, since the Dems need all of the help and as much of a concerted effort that they can muster to even hold their own versus the Republicans these days.

 

-Whaley seems to have a slight edge right now among the Dems in the race or who are considering jumping in, but she still lacks name recognition across the state, outside of SW Ohio. I anticipate that we'll be seeing her reach out to her fellow Democratic mayors in Akron, Cleveland, Canton, Youngstown, and Toledo for campaign support and to secure their endorsements over the coming weeks and months.

 

-Nothing from Coleman either. After being out of office for a year and a half now, he seems to have grown well-accustomed to the private life he missed during his years as Mayor of Columbus. He's given no indication that he's even remotely interested in getting back into politics at this point, so I don't think we'll see him enter the race or even take on an active campaign role for a candidate.

 

-Regardless, it's definitely a loss to the Ohio Dems that someone like Coleman, who has arguably been their most successful big city mayor in recent history, or Mark Mallory, a two-term directly elected former mayor of Cincinnati, has no interest in running for the state's top executive seat, or even a state line office like Attorney General or Secretary of State. Someone at the party's state headquarters should really be asking and investigating why that is because either of these men, or other Dems with successful, established track records as mayors of big cities, could be running competitive races at the state level, but for some reason aren't stepping up to do so.

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I agree it's disappointing that Coleman doesn't appear to be showing any interest at all. Can you explain why you think Whaley has the edge? I like what I've heard of her, but from what I understand, she may have the lowest name recognition of all the candidates.

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The Dems are pretty fractured regionally around the state, compared to the GOP, so I'm placing a great deal of weight on candidates' standing within their respective regions as supported through media exposure. Whaley, as Dayton's mayor, tends to draw media coverage from Cincinnati, in addition to her home city, since Dayton and Cincinnati are fairly well-linked together. She's regularly featured in the Columbus press (Dispatch) as well.

 

Beyond SW and Central Ohio, it's a different story, which is why I suggested she'll have to do some major outreach across the northern half of the state to boost her name recognition there and strengthen her hopes of being competitive for statewide office.

 

There's no obvious leading candidate in the north. Betty Sutton as a Congresswoman represented the Akron area (OH-13) but she didn't get a great deal of exposure beyond it. Plus she's been out of elected office for a few years now, since being unseated by Tim Ryan. Outside of Akron and maybe Cleveland, she's virtually unknown anywhere else in the state. This is Renacci's predicament as well. Outside of the Akron area, and maybe the parts of the Cleveland and Canton areas his congressional district covers, no one else in the state really knows who he is.

 

State Sen. Joe Schiavoni is the Dems' Senate Minority leader, and that has gotten him some additional exposure around the state beyond what he would have in the Mahoning Valley area, where his district is located. I doubt though if many people outside of the Youngstown/Mahoning Valley area could tell you much on who he is or what he does yet.

 

Cordray remains by far the Dems' strongest potential gubernatorial candidate based on name recognition, since he was successfully elected to statewide office twice, and narrowly lost his third bid to Mike DeWine in 2010. Coleman would be second, if he were considering a run.

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Richard Cordray is running for Ohio governor, Supreme Court justice was told

 

http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/07/richard_cordray_is_running_for.html

 

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray is going to run for governor of Ohio, Ohio Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill said he was told last week by a mutual friend.

 

O'Neill said the friend, whom he declined to name, "openly stated" that Cordray is going to enter the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary. The friend called to see whether O'Neill would stick to his past statement that he would stay out of the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary if Cordray entered the race.

 

"The person I was talking to last week was saying that [Cordray] is basically trying to get as many projects done in Washington as he can before he leaves," said O'Neill, the lone Democrat on the state's high court. "But they left me with the clear impression that he is leaving."

 

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So it appears Cordray is tossing his hat into the ring to represent the Dems. We might see a competitive Gubernatorial race next year after all.

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^ Wow, this is pretty huge. A Cordray-DeWine race would be interesting for a lot of reasons. It's a rematch from the 2010 race (which was the closest statewide race that year), which is always interesting. But most of all, these are two long-time politicians (both can be considered rather "establishment"), and they both have quite a lot of experience. That's good for name recognition, but maybe not so good in these anti-establishment days we're living in. Even though it's early, I'd be very interested to see a hypothetical poll for Cordray vs the Republican candidates and see who fares best.

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^ he is the only Dem with a chance at winning, but I really don't see him doing it when push comes to shove. He has a much more powerful position now and cant be fired very easily by Trump. If he leaves, Trump can then gut his agency a lot easier. I just don't see the incentives for him leaving now. He can run in 2022 and still be strong.

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^Why would any politician prefer to run against an incumbent governor?  That's never an easy campaign.  I see this as the right time for Cordray to run because he's fresh off of some pretty significant CFPB wins that he can use in his campaign.  Frankly, he's in a position to be the "populist" candidate against an establishment GOP candidate that may not receive much support from the Trump base.

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Even if Cordray can't be fired easily by Trump, his term as CFPB Director will end in 2018, so it doesn't make a big difference if he steps down to run for governor.

 

I agree that Cordray actually may have a better chance than a lot of people think, as long as his campaign plays their cards right. I predict that there could be a potentially ugly primary on the Republican side, which could leave DeWine a bit weakened heading into the general election (or maybe he won't even get the nomination - who knows).

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I can picture some Republicans voting for Cordray just to weaken the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. They want that thing gone so that greedy overweight meatheads that drive tyght Land Rovers can social engineer old ladies out of all their money again.

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^I'm under the impression that Cordray has to resign from the CFPB before he can run for Gov. Also, his term would be up in 2018 anyway, so electing him wouldn't remove him from his position, he would already be leaving.

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The reason Democrats haven't raised much money is because Democratic donors are holding back until some of the big potential candidates make an official announcement. In my opinion these big candidates are Richard Cordray, Michael Coleman, and Bill O'Neill. If any of them enter the race, I would expect Democratic donors to start opening their pockets.

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‘Dark money’ group goes after Cordray

By Marty Schladen, The Columbus Dispatch

Posted: August 8, 2017 at 5:59 AM

 

Add a nonprofit “dark-money” group to the chorus of voices that are rising against Richard Cordray, director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and rumored candidate for Ohio governor.

 

The secretive Protect America’s Consumers has put up a website that at first glance would seem to be promoting the Cordray campaign.  It’s titled “Cordray for Ohio.”  Read down, however, and it becomes quickly evident that the site has an objective other than promoting Cordray, a Democrat, to be Ohio’s next governor.

( . . . )

The Sunlight Foundation, a nonpartisan transparency group, reported that Protect America’s Consumers was incorporated in 2015 and its registered agent shares a Virginia address with the law firm Holtzman Vogel Josefiak Torchinsky.  The firm, which reportedly specializes in untraceable pressure groups that support conservative causes, couldn’t be reached for comment Monday.

 

MORE: http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170808/dark-money-group-goes-after-cordray

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^From that article

 

"To the chagrin of some in the financial industry, the agency has promulgated rules intended to clamp down on pay-day lenders and has required greater disclosure of overdraft fees. Last month, it issued a rule in response to last year’s Wells Fargo scandal that would stop big banks from using mandatory-arbitration agreements to block lawsuits against them."

 

This fuels all the rhetoric against him and his agency. These are the kind of regulations that allowed the economy to rebound. We all know about income inequality, but expenditure inequality would be way worse without these rules. Expenditure inequality is just as bad if not worse than income inequality.

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The Cincinnati Enquirer's take on Cordray:

 

If this is Ohio Democrats' great hope for governor, 2018 will be tough

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2017/09/04/px-richard-cordray-mum-running-governor/630915001/

 

Richard Cordray is going to run for Ohio governor, he sure didn't sound like it on Monday.

 

The nation's top consumer watchdog showed no excitement in delivering a wonky, keynote speech to union workers at the Cincinnati AFL-CIO's annual Labor Day picnic. Cordray didn't mention anything about running for governor, but he missed an opportunity to lay the groundwork for his campaign if he does plan to run.

 

"My message today is not a barn-burner," Cordray told a sparse crowd at Coney Island.

 

Yeah, no kidding.

 

For 14 minutes, Cordray spoke in the same humdrum tone about financial inequality. Not once did he raise his voice.

 

Cordray's dry personality might have helped the Democrat get elected statewide back in the day. But does dry fly in the age of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders?

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The Cincinnati Enquirer's take on Cordray:

 

If this is Ohio Democrats' great hope for governor, 2018 will be tough

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2017/09/04/px-richard-cordray-mum-running-governor/630915001/

 

Richard Cordray is going to run for Ohio governor, he sure didn't sound like it on Monday.

 

The nation's top consumer watchdog showed no excitement in delivering a wonky, keynote speech to union workers at the Cincinnati AFL-CIO's annual Labor Day picnic. Cordray didn't mention anything about running for governor, but he missed an opportunity to lay the groundwork for his campaign if he does plan to run.

 

"My message today is not a barn-burner," Cordray told a sparse crowd at Coney Island.

 

Yeah, no kidding.

 

For 14 minutes, Cordray spoke in the same humdrum tone about financial inequality. Not once did he raise his voice.

 

Cordray's dry personality might have helped the Democrat get elected statewide back in the day. But does dry fly in the age of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders?

 

Enquirer had an interesting take on Cordray and Springer. Springer would play well to the rural voters who have turned GOP in the age of Trump but that may turn off a lot of suburbanites who remember Springer as the king of trash TV and no substance.

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I was going to post a message about how ridiculous the idea of Springer running is given his TV career, then I remembered who lives in the White House. Still, the guy just floats his name every few years because I presume he enjoys the hooplah. Doubtfull he'll run. (Then again that's what we said about the guy who lives in the White House.)

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