Housing Market & Trends

[Gramarye]

It's not an issue in many Democrat-controlled districts, either.  You might hear about SanFran and NYC but those are not the bulk of Democratic districts, either.  There simply aren't that many districts in the entire country where housing really is unaffordable.  We've built a lot more than we've bred over the last 20 years (or longer).  Supply has increased faster than demand nationwide.  It's only in the rare pockets subject to geographic or legal constraints on building (or both) that supply has not kept up with demand.  Even in Ohio cities where demand for downtown housing is temporarily very high (e.g., downtown Cleveland now), I'm fairly certain we're going to look back in 5 years and see that a fairly high volume of new and converted housing came online to meet that demand.  (Again, though, not middle-market new-build housing.)

 

What do you think of when you think of new-build middle-market starter housing?  To me, that's a few dozen more Ryan Homes plunked in a beanfield somewhere.  Do we really need more of those?  Heck, do we really need that many more of those even if they weren't plunked in a beanfield but instead filled in vacant urban lots west of Gordon Square or wherever the current frontiers of infill lie?

[Clefan98]

Just now, Gramarye said:

Heck, do we really need that many more of those even if they weren't plunked in a beanfield but instead filled in vacant urban lots west of Gordon Square or wherever the current frontiers of infill lie?

 Yes we do, and we need a lot. Not just to meet current demand, but to meet the demand over the next 20yrs.

 

I found this study about housing needs over the next 20yrs to be interesting:

http://www.downtowncleveland.com/DCA/media/DCA_Media/2018-Housing-Demand-Analysis.pdf

Edited October 25, 2018 by Clefan98

[KJP]

 

[KJP]

This will hopefully address the shortage of quality, middle-market housing especially on the East Side...

 

 

[KJP]

Shipping containers could help make home ownership affordable in more places throughout Cleveland

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/e-team/shipping-containers-could-help-make-home-ownership-affordable-in-more-places-throughout-cleveland

[Cleburger]

On 11/12/2018 at 10:20 PM, KJP said:

Shipping containers could help make home ownership affordable in more places throughout Cleveland

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/e-team/shipping-containers-could-help-make-home-ownership-affordable-in-more-places-throughout-cleveland

 

I don't get this.  Give any decent contractor $99K or better yet $149K to rehab one of the many vacant homes in Cleveland.  The key is getting the homes out of the hands of the deadbeat owners, and turning the entire property over to a new owner at minimal cost. 

[Gramarye]

Is it possible that a shipping container would have fewer ongoing maintenance issues than one with wooden walls and vinyl siding?

[Cleburger]

4 hours ago, Gramarye said:

Is it possible that a shipping container would have fewer ongoing maintenance issues than one with wooden walls and vinyl siding?

 

I'm sure this is true, but at what other costs?   A neighborhood with abandoned houses with a shipping container house dropped here and there?  My point is the money could be better spent on drywall, carpeting and plumbing, while removing a blighted property. 

[KJP]

I missed this...... (Top of the Hill in Cleveland Heights is red??)

 

The Brazen Redlining Happening in Cleveland

A real estate agency has made a modern redlining map of Cleveland, but in a time of rising home prices, some say it might have the unintended effect of keeping housing affordable.

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/11/redlining-cleveland-investors-home-prices/574153/

 

 

[KJP]

 

[KJP]

 

[KJP]

 

[tklg]

Is there a good site detailing housing housing markets by zip code?  Something with historical data?

[KJP]

In other words, the housing inventory is too small....

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by KJP

[KJP]

 

[aderwent]

44 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Yeah, been looking at houses for a couple years now. In the areas I prefer these "small" houses are the ones I can actually afford. Except people bid way over or can pay "California Cash" for the houses to just knock them down, build additions to double the square footage, or worse, use it as an Airbnb. I would actually prefer to just live in the 1,000 square feet. So much easier to maintain inside and out. It's no wonder houses built in the last 20-30 years look like shit already. They're not just poor build quality, but people can't afford the time or money to upkeep them properly.

[Toddguy]

7 hours ago, KJP said:

 

This is incorrect. The figure for 2011 is for the average NEW house built in that year, not for the existing inventory of homes in the US. The average of all homes is less than that.  This is a very common error, presenting new home data as "all existing home data".

 

Here is just one of many articles that back that up:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/average-home-size-2011_n_1575617

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Toddguy

[KJP]

If you all don't like that graphic,maybe you'll like this one....

 

 

[KJP]

Not sure if this is the best place for this, but here it is.....

 

Lawmakers Join on Bill to Curb Land Contracts

By Josh Medore | February 5, 2019

 

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – New state legislation to be introduced by local lawmakers seeks to curb the impact and close loopholes for companies offering land installment contracts as a route to homeownership.

 

In a press conference Mondayat the Mahoning County Courthouse, state Reps. Michele Lepore-Hagan and Don Manning and state Sens. Michael Rulli and Sean O’Brien announced their bipartisan, bicameral effort.

 

“You have to make sure the seller brings the house up to code, has an appraisal, records the contract with the county record and protects consumers,” said Lepore-Hagan, who last year introduced a bill by herself that was effectively the same measure. “The big difference is in the people who are introducing it. Now it’s a bipartisan joint effort. … The basic elements to the bill from the last General Assembly have to stay the same.”

 

In the wake of the Great Recession, as houses throughout the state were foreclosed, buyers – many from out of state – swooped in and bought them up. Under land contracts, frequently known as “rent to own” or “lease to own” deals, the companies require buyers to take out high interest, long-term loans to purchase the house.

 

MORE:

https://businessjournaldaily.com/valley-lawmakers-announce-legislation-to-curb-land-contracts/

[Brutus_buckeye]

Bad idea. Land Contracts give homeownership to people who would never otherwise qualify. They are not bad, however, both landlords and tenants do not understand them completely and often sign bad deals. There are many better ways to fight the issue than attacking land contracts and lease options.

[PoshSteve]

Good idea. Land contracts in theory are good, but in current practice can be dangerous. It's an area in terrible need of regulation (any regulation at this point, as there is basically none). They really blossomed after the housing meltdown, and are still festering. While not all are, many are predatory in nature.

 

One problem we are seeing with these currently are the tenants paying for sometimes years and years (including a large downpayment), often being responsible for making all of the repairs needed and taxes, and then the landlord throwing them out. They invested nothing into the property, and come out with a fully repaired house, paid off taxes, and a nice profit. Even bigger is where the landlord collects the down payment,  rent, and fees to go towards taxes, etc, but isn't actually paying the mortgage on the house  or the taxes. The tenant then gets thrown out in foreclosure after doing everything right on their end, and the landlords make off with their big profits. I've seen others where they tenant makes their downpayment and monthly payments, but the amount going towards the purchase is so minuscule, they will never own the property in their life - yet they paid a large downpayment and are now paying more each month than they would pay to rent a comparable house. Another one, the tenant was moved into a house we deemed uninhabitable, with pages of code violations. She's paying each month and was made responsible for all of the repairs and taxes even though she doesn't at all have the means to bring the house to code. Yet another issue with the insurance. They can't get homeowners insurance since they aren't on the title, and renters insurance wouldn't cover the structure - even though they're the ones putting all of the money into the repairs and maintenance. 

 

Apart from the tenants losing out, the community as a whole often times ends up losing out.  Often the tenants aren't in the financial position to make the needed repairs, or keep up with the regular maintenance The community ends up with a blighted structure, and/or ends up spending tax dollars on abating the property themselves. I'm not just pulling these examples out of theory, they are all situations I've seen with my own eyes. I've only seen one  rent-to-own/land contract work out well, with the tenant now getting the deed. Even then, the house has been in substandard maintenance, and he has struggled through years of repairs that normally an owner would have been given 6 months to complete.

 

Long story short, they are a huge problem, and sorely in need of oversight.

[Brutus_buckeye]

^ This is not quite accurate. I have bought properties on land contract, sold properties, on land contract, and worked with both landlords and tenants to re-work busted land contracts.

1) You can get insurance, it is not as simple as if you have fee simple interest but you can get insurance.

2) after the down payment or holding the property for 5 years, if the landlord wants the tenant out, he would have to foreclose. For many individual landlords, this is not a pleasant process and often encourages them to work something out.

 

There are a lot of bad land contracts out there. Many tenants do not do proper diligence in making sure they truly understand what they are signing. Some reforms are certainly needed, but not drastic reforms because at the end of the day, they serve a good purpose and the majority of landlords and tenants are working together to create a mutual benefit.

 

What they should have is a standard form set that is required for land contracts and all legal contracts must conform to the forms (with variances for price, rate and length, and downpayment) This would help protect the consumer because the standard  form starts out as a fairly neutral document, similar to a BOR document.

[GCrites]

I feel like a company has to be a certain size to reasonably take on that sort of risk. People have been trying to rent-to-own our rental for decades. First off, modern local zoning does not allow us to sell the property as it sits due to road frontage requirements and lot size ratios. Regardless of that, history shows we or the tenant would have gotten screwed anyway. At least with a lot more properties there's a chance risk could be mitigated. Unfortunately, it seems to me that most of the prospective transactions for RTO would be initiated by tenants of small landlords hoping for a handshake-type deal that could have grave consequences.  

[jjakucyk]

Wait, since when does zoning preclude sale of a property?  Alterations I understand, even if I don't agree, but there's grandfather clauses for non-conforming lots.  

[GCrites]

I'm talking about splitting up a property with a shared driveway and no cheap way of putting in a new driveway with the new driveway being far enough from the old one. One house is on front of the other. 

Edited February 6, 2019 by GCrites80s

[jjakucyk]

Ah, gotcha.  

[Brutus_buckeye]

27 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

I'm talking about splitting up a property with a shared driveway and no cheap way of putting in a new driveway with the new driveway being far enough from the old one. One house is on front of the other. 

 

 

Why do you need to split it, there is an automatic easement that would be created if you sold it? Unless you are talking about creating a completely separate parcel, which in that case I get what you are saying.

[GCrites]

Yes, creating a separate parcel.

[freefourur]

2 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

Yes, creating a separate parcel.

Couldn't you create a separate parcel with a permanent easement on it? I ask out of shear ignorance but I thought this could be added to a deed.

[jjakucyk]

It makes sense that you can't create a new lot that's non-conforming, and I would bet easements for a driveway fall into that category. 

[MuRrAy HiLL]

Cleveland neighbrohood real estate sales:

 

1) University, which includes the University Circle and Little Italy areas, had the highest median of $325,000. There were just 21 sales there. However, last year’s prices on the limited sales follow a longer-term trend in the neighborhood, driven by some high-end new housing.

2) Ohio City - $169,000 median on 81 sales.

3) Edgewater - $165,000 median on 51 sales.

4) Kamm’s Corners - $134,450 median on 420 sales.

5) Tremont - $126,500 median on 81 sales.

6) Detroit-Shoreway - $125,000 on 185 sales.

 

Edgewater, Ohio City, University median home sale prices in Cleveland top typical suburban price; Kamm's Corners' steady drive up continues

By Rich Exner, cleveland.com | Posted on February 14, 2019 5:35 AM | Updated February 14, 2019 5:35 AM

 

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The median single-family home price in Cleveland’s Edgewater, Ohio City and University neighborhoods last year topped the countywide suburban median, according to cleveland.com’s annual analysis of property sale.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/expo/news/g66l-2019/02/4498aa5609337/edgewater-ohio-city-university-median-home-sale-prices-in-cleveland-top-typical-suburban-price-kamms-corners-steady-drive-up-continues.html

 

 

[KJP]

Amazing. So is this, and it underscores part of the reason why we're seeing so many East Coast license plates around town....the high real estate prices there and the low real estate prices here:

 

The Depressing Reason Rich People Are the Fastest-Growing Segment of Renters

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-depressing-reason-rich-people-are-the-fastest-growing-segment-of-renters-51549814400

 

 

Like I've said on here before… if you're an East Coast homeowner, you can cash out your home for $500,000 to $1 million, then buy/rent a home for half or a third of the price here in Greater Cleveland where jobs are suddenly plentiful, then with extra $250,000 to $500,000, you can put your kid through college and still have enough left over to add to a nice retirement savings. Maybe you can transfer here or do a soft retirement like a part-time job while you downsize....or not.  You might even be able to afford a larger home here and still have enough left over from the sale of your East Coast home to put your kid through college.

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by KJP

[MuRrAy HiLL]

@KJP

 incorrect link?

[KJP]

Fixed it. Thanks. 

[StapHanger]

On 2/14/2019 at 6:13 AM, MuRrAy HiLL said:

Cleveland neighbrohood real estate sales:

 

1) University, which includes the University Circle and Little Italy areas, had the highest median of $325,000. There were just 21 sales there. However, last year’s prices on the limited sales follow a longer-term trend in the neighborhood, driven by some high-end new housing.

2) Ohio City - $169,000 median on 81 sales.

3) Edgewater - $165,000 median on 51 sales.

4) Kamm’s Corners - $134,450 median on 420 sales.

5) Tremont - $126,500 median on 81 sales.

6) Detroit-Shoreway - $125,000 on 185 sales.

 

Edgewater, Ohio City, University median home sale prices in Cleveland top typical suburban price; Kamm's Corners' steady drive up continues

By Rich Exner, cleveland.com | Posted on February 14, 2019 5:35 AM | Updated February 14, 2019 5:35 AM

 

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The median single-family home price in Cleveland’s Edgewater, Ohio City and University neighborhoods last year topped the countywide suburban median, according to cleveland.com’s annual analysis of property sale.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/expo/news/g66l-2019/02/4498aa5609337/edgewater-ohio-city-university-median-home-sale-prices-in-cleveland-top-typical-suburban-price-kamms-corners-steady-drive-up-continues.html

 

 

 I wouldn't put much stock in these numbers for Ohio City, Tremont or Detroit Shoreway, given the number of new construction unit sales and the qualification in intro to that Cleveland.com post:

 

In some cases, new homes sold on newly created parcels are not included because they are not flagged as single-family homes in county transfer data.

 

EDIT: out of curiosity, I looked in Zillow to identify sales of sf houses/townhouses within the past 12 months in core Tremont (north of 490, east of 90), and it was $260K.  But even here, there were some major data integrity issues, with Zillow reporting some clearly bogus sale price numbers (maybe related party or partial interest transfers) and including a few misclassified property types (like a boarded up storefront or even vacant land). 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by StapHanger

[Oldmanladyluck]

Look at Central- which often gets overlooked but has been doing well.  Their average sale price was for over $100,000.  I hope that continues

[KJP]

The population in Central is actually up, although its population is 10 percent of what it was right after WWII.

[ML11]

The other thing to consider is that pretty much any property sold for less than $100K within Ohio City, Tremont, and (the majority of) Detroit Shoreway is likely to be renovated in some way that would put the new value well over the median.  On my own little street in DS, two dilapidated houses recently sold for just under $100K, and I'm happy to say that there are already crews working on them.  

 

As a next step, I really hope the Dark green neighborhoods can start spilling over to create more light green in the surrounding areas. 

 

[PittsburgoDelendaEst]

2 hours ago, ML11 said:

The other thing to consider is that pretty much any property sold for less than $100K within Ohio City, Tremont, and (the majority of) Detroit Shoreway is likely to be renovated in some way that would put the new value well over the median.  On my own little street in DS, two dilapidated houses recently sold for just under $100K, and I'm happy to say that there are already crews working on them.  

 

As a next step, I really hope the Dark green neighborhoods can start spilling over to create more light green in the surrounding areas. 

 

 

I couldn't resist whipping up another view showing a more graduated color scale of this data. If I have time I'll post a proper version. 

[MuRrAy HiLL]

I wonder why the PD doesn't use the latest neighborhood borders for these metrics:  http://planning.city.cleveland.oh.us/2010census/downloads/All_SPAs_2014.pdf

[YO to the CLE]

I am surprised that West Blvd is not trending towards the light green area. I've been watching real estate in the area, and the median listing is definitely pushing $50K. Still banking on that area picking up steam from DS and OHC. Cudell continues to be the bad neighbor to the north though. The highway is literally the dividing line at W 98th. South is fairly stable. North is pretty rough

[PittsburgoDelendaEst]

3 hours ago, MuRrAy HiLL said:

I wonder why the PD doesn't use the latest neighborhood borders for these metrics:  http://planning.city.cleveland.oh.us/2010census/downloads/All_SPAs_2014.pdf

 

The article stated at the very end, "Note: These are the neighborhoods historically used for statistical purposes in Cleveland until 2014. The newer lines are not used here, to allow for longer-term comparisons." 

[PittsburgoDelendaEst]

Updated the map and took the 3 year average, to smooth out the small sample a little:

 

 

Here is the change in median price by neighborhood, the most recent 3 years vs the 3 years prior:

 

[CbusTransit]

Cool data!--whats the source?

 

EDIT: Looks like its Census 3-year estimates?

Edited February 16, 2019 by CbusTransit

[PittsburgoDelendaEst]

16 hours ago, CbusTransit said:

Cool data!--whats the source?

 

EDIT: Looks like its Census 3-year estimates

It came from the above-linked Cleveland.com article database search. I have the data in a spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h3QeeK1LWwgurB9-D2J7n6I4v8SBYlLI8qQtJ15-cww/edit?usp=drivesdk

[PoshSteve]

Quote

Good news for home buyers: ‘Seller’s’ housing market becoming slightly more balanced

By Jordyn Grzelewski, The Plain Dealer

 

After a long run of substantial increases in home-sale prices and a shortage of available houses to keep up with demand, housing inventory, meaning those homes on the market, is beginning to creep upward and prices, while still increasing, may be growing at a slower pace.

https://www.cleveland.com/business/2019/02/good-news-for-home-buyers-sellers-housing-market-becoming-slightly-more-balanced.html

 

I can say first hand that alot of the extra inventory coming online are rental properties. Alot of people who moved during the housing crash and were forced to rent out their houses are now finally able to sell them with prices coming up again. Investors who bought houses during that same time to turn into rentals are also selling now, and from what I've seen, the vast majority of these are becoming owner occupied homes. As a case in point, from my own (preliminary) data, the number of rental units in South Euclid decreased by about 8.5% just in the last year alone. While rising home ownership rates can certainly be a positive (some of these were tenants buying the houses they had been renting (fantastic!)), there is a creeping rental crisis developing in greater Cleveland. Rising rents, stagnant wages, and a diminishing supply of rental units is already causing a rise in homelessness. The region needs to really ramp up new construction of new multifamily and infill single family - more so now with the jobs market taking off too.

[jws]

On 2/15/2019 at 4:01 PM, YO to the CLE said:

South is fairly stable. North is pretty rough

 

 I'd push back on this primarily because of my anecdotal experience of living there. West Boulevard and Cudell are overwhelmingly similar in terms of housing stability, crime, quality of life, etc. The areas of West Blvd (the street), W101, W100, W99, and the area around West Tech are considerably stronger areas than anything south of I-90. West Blvd (the street) and W101 are considered a different market than the rest of Cudell as well (per a handful of realtors with whom I've spoken), so that is potentially impacting median sale price by cutting out half of the highest performing tracts in the neighborhood.

Edited February 20, 2019 by jws

[surfohio]

If I had some extra spare change I'd be investing in either Cudell or St. Clair-Superior ASAP. 

 

Anyone else think differently? 

[KJP]

12 minutes ago, surfohio said:

If I had some extra spare change I'd be investing in either Cudell or St. Clair-Superior ASAP. 

 

Anyone else think differently? 

 

I don't know enough about St. Clair-Superior but I do think the area of Lake Avenue between Detroit Avenue and Clifton Blvd is where I'd be investing. It's a short gap between a stable area and a growing area.

[KJP]