Jump to content
Columbo

2020 Presidential Election Discussion

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, X said:

Is there any reason to think that the polling errors will be the same as they were in 2016?  Wouldn't good pollsters be accounting for things that they learned then, and therefore this is an overcorrection?


Yes.  Plus a number of those seem to be within typical margins of error.  I took this thing as purely a thought exercise.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure- so I thought about it, and came to the conclusion that it probably isn't a particularly useful exercise!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, X said:

Is there any reason to think that the polling errors will be the same as they were in 2016?  Wouldn't good pollsters be accounting for things that they learned then, and therefore this is an overcorrection?

 

No real reason to think that, no. Just more of a fun hypothetical - "what if the polls are just as wrong again in 2020?" type of thing.

 

National polls were ~1% off. Obviously they missed pretty badly in WI.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, X said:

Is there any reason to think that the polling errors will be the same as they were in 2016?  Wouldn't good pollsters be accounting for things that they learned then, and therefore this is an overcorrection?

 

I've read a few articles which try to get to the bottom of 2016 polling errors, and most of them conclude that the big issue was weighting by education. Education level was never as strongly correlated to vote as it was in '16 and the pollsters were caught off guard. 

 

They are of course trying to correct for this error as best they can now in 2020, but, they will still be learning and figuring it out. Polling had gotten down to such an exact science during the late 90s thru 2012 eras and this is a curveball for them, so some of them are warning that it still could be off.

 

The problem will show its largest impact in state polls for states with larger swaths of HS-educated white people so it  shows up in the swingy rust belt. 

 

I wouldn't count on the problem being 'fixed' (and pollsters and Nate Silver types are certainly are bending over backwards telling everyone such) but you'd think they'll at least do better than last time.

 

I think this is the article I'm recalling: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5efb25b3afe09a050b1ef1ac/1593517491862/Galloway+For+Governor+-+Recent+Polling+of+the+Presidential+and+Gubernatorial+Races+in+MO.pdf

 

A Missouri Governor candidate's internal poll (I believe?) has Biden up 2% in Missouri.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most rabid Trump supporters I know irl (my Aunt's neighbors who would come to a lot of our family events), have said that they aren't going to vote for Trump again.  I think he's toast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

image.png.c71d8c19f40ed390865a75d70296bdc3.png

 

The Economist's forecast pegs just four states as toss-ups right now - Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio.  They have every other conventionally-known swing state going to Biden.


Very Stable Genius

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...