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2020 Presidential Election Discussion

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President Trump's approval ratings have been soaring ever since he fired the President of China. Not sure Kayne has much of a chance here I think the DNC is offering him as a sacrificial lamb candidate. 

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http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-2020-electoral-college-our-first-look/

 

Larry Sabato has his first "Crysal Ball" electoral college map out - 248 electoral votes for the Republicans, 244 for the Democrats, and 46 electoral votes as toss-ups - the most notable of which are PA, WI, and AZ, probably unsurprising to everyone.

 

In the next category down ("leans") Republicans have five huge states at that level - TX, FL, GA, NC, and OH.  Democrats meanwhile, have just three double digit electoral vote states labeled as leans - MI, MN, and VA (and CO with 9).


Very Stable Genius

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Reps. Tulsi Gabbard and Don Young introduced bipartisan legislation today to end the federal prohibition of marijuana

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/marijuana-bill-tulsi-gabbard-don-young-weed-decriminalization-804633/

 

Tulsi making strong push, much to the chagrin of this thread.  I’d pay money to see her in debate with Orangeman.

Edited by tklg

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7 minutes ago, tklg said:

Reps. Tulsi Gabbard and Don Young introduced bipartisan legislation today to end the federal prohibition of marijuana

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/marijuana-bill-tulsi-gabbard-don-young-weed-decriminalization-804633/

 

Tulsi making strong push, much to the chagrin of this thread.  I’d pay money to see her in debate with Orangeman.

 

Does Tulsi know weed is still illegal in Syria? 

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😄

 

And what's the outrage around Tulsi meeting with Asaad?  That whole situation is so full of propaganda, it's extremely difficult to understand what is going on.  Inb4 Asaad friend of Russia, muh isis, terrible dictator blah blah.

 

Don't believe the white helmets

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3 minutes ago, audidave said:

^Well there are a lot more people of color in the one pic than the other

 

It's really impossible to tell. Unless you've got exceptionally sharp vision (maybe you do, so I'm just speculating), the second picture shows such a surging mass of people (and even at that it's only a portion of the total crowd) it's hard to delineate the racial makeup of any one person. The first picture of course contains a very small group wherein individual characteristics are readily apparent. 

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Well there were 500 reporters at a venue that holds 20,000 people. The reporters said there were clearly still available seats. I did see some pics and it showed about 1000-3000 seats that were empty at the top. Don Jr apparently tweeted out that 100,000 people were in the venue. 

   I’m not really that impressed that a president could have a campaign rally in  a very central location in Florida and only draw 16,000-17,000 raving fans.  Maybe the conservative Orlando paper there helped snub the reaction?

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19 minutes ago, audidave said:

Well there were 500 reporters at a venue that holds 20,000 people. The reporters said there were clearly still available seats. I did see some pics and it showed about 1000-3000 seats that were empty at the top. Don Jr apparently tweeted out that 100,000 people were in the venue. 

   I’m not really that impressed that a president could have a campaign rally in  a very central location in Florida and only draw 16,000-17,000 raving fans.  Maybe the conservative Orlando paper there helped snub the reaction?

 

I believe that there were 100K requests for tickets, not that that many people were at the venue. Whatever the case, even 16-17K is many times the number of people (a very good crowd this early in the campaign) who have shown up for any Democrat candidate, as far as I know. Monica Alba of NBC (probably not the most unbiased source) gave the following estimate (in other words, the place was full, and not seeing where at the top you're saying it was "empty." Maybe you've got better pics)

 

 

Edited by eastvillagedon

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30 minutes ago, eastvillagedon said:

 

I believe that there were 100K requests for tickets, not that that many people were at the venue. Whatever the case, even 16-17K is many times the number of people (a very good crowd this early in the campaign) who have shown up for any Democrat candidate, as far as I know. Monica Alba of NBC (probably not the most unbiased source) gave the following estimate (in other words, the place was full, and not seeing where at the top you're saying it was "empty." Maybe you've got better pics)

 

 

My point is that in a Orlando metro of 2.5 million with another probably 5 million people within a half hour drive, to only get 18,000 MAGAs and not fill the place up is not a good sign for trump.   He promoted that rally hard. This is actually the best of trump, being the carnival barker showman. You never know what he is going to say or who he is going to go after. 

  The Democrats are not trying to have general rallies. They are trying to have conversations with people. A rally is just a shrill screaming to people that are already on board. There are 24 candidates in the Democratic party. It is just getting started with finding out who the candidate is. 

Edited by audidave

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I will never get the fascination with Trump supporters drooling over crowd size.  David Koresh and Jim Jones could also fill a room.  What relevance does it have to being a good president? 

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On 6/19/2019 at 8:28 PM, jonoh81 said:

I will never get the fascination with Trump supporters drooling over crowd size.  David Koresh and Jim Jones could also fill a room.  What relevance does it have to being a good president? 

 

Politics is nothing more than their TV show of choice. Seen through that lens it makes perfect sense.

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Random observation:  having now had some experience with the condition, I'm not voting for anybody 70 years old.  Septuagenarians can, possibly with distinction, be judges, advisors, critics, legislators, and philosophers, but not not executives.  Sorry, the job is too demanding if it's done right. 

 

This is probably a politically incorrect opinion; but I think I'm being a realist, not an "ageist".


There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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Not sure why anyone would wanna vote for 70+ year old narcissistic racist white man who rips lines of adderall daily.. if you're blind to the racism, youre a racist too

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/nbc-news-poll-trump-losing-support-among-women-voters/vp-AAG52CW

 

(auto play warning on that link)

 

Quote

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found a huge drop in support for Trump among women. The president trails by 32 points among registered women voters when they were asked if they would vote for the president or the eventual Democratic nominee.

 

IMO, it's going to be hard for Trump to win if he loses women somewhere along the lines of 62-30%.


Very Stable Genius

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On 8/11/2019 at 12:27 PM, Dougal said:

Random observation:  having now had some experience with the condition, I'm not voting for anybody 70 years old.  Septuagenarians can, possibly with distinction, be judges, advisors, critics, legislators, and philosophers, but not not executives.  Sorry, the job is too demanding if it's done right. 

 

This is probably a politically incorrect opinion; but I think I'm being a realist, not an "ageist".

 

So the question is, what if both major party candidates are 70+? 

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On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 12:27 PM, Dougal said:

Random observation:  having now had some experience with the condition, I'm not voting for anybody 70 years old.  Septuagenarians can, possibly with distinction, be judges, advisors, critics, legislators, and philosophers, but not not executives.  Sorry, the job is too demanding if it's done right. 

 

This is probably a politically incorrect opinion; but I think I'm being a realist, not an "ageist".

 

Age at Election Day, 2020:

-Bernie Sanders: 79

-Joe Biden: 77 (birthday is November 20th)

-Donald Trump: 74

-Elizabeth Warren: 71

 

In general, I agree, though I don't think a cut off at a specific age necessarily works for everyone.  People have different genetics, different life habits, etc.  Plus, women live on average nearly 5 years longer than men.  The four above are the top four candidates right now.  All are above 70.  Now, Warren at 71 is different than Bernie at 79.  If you factor in the difference in sexes, she has nearly 13 more years to live than Bernie does.  Does that make a difference?  For me, it does.

 

You'll notice those two going out of their way to downplay their age - Warren is seen running to a train stop or running to a campaign event, and her campaign plays that up.  Bernie's campaign is showing him talking with Cardi B and playing baseball in Iowa.  Meanwhile, Biden has a very limited schedule (you could say some of that is due to the time he has to take to hit up fundraising events on the coasts).  But there is concern there about Biden's age/mental ability.  If Trump were anyone else he'd probably be in a nursing home.


Very Stable Genius

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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

In general, I agree, though I don't think a cut off at a specific age necessarily works for everyone.  People have different genetics, different life habits, etc.  Plus, women live on average nearly 5 years longer than men.  The four above are the top four candidates right now.  All are above 70.  Now, Warren at 71 is different than Bernie at 79.  If you factor in the difference in sexes, she has nearly 13 more years to live than Bernie does.  Does that make a difference?  For me, it does.

 

Longevity (i.e. survival) is one thing; effectiveness is another.  My real cut-off for nomination is probably 62; I was being generous suggesting 70.  No amount of delegation lightens the executive burden enough to make a 70 year old candidate a good idea for me. Three of our candidates are statistically dead in office, making the vice presidency a much more important choice than usual. And nobody's talking about that.


There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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2 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

 

So the question is, what if both major party candidates are 70+? 

 

That's what the write-in line on the ballot is for.  I can't tell you how often I have voted for Rufus T. Firefly, 😉


There's nothing wrong with optimism, as long as you don't get your hopes up.

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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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1 hour ago, freefourur said:

^ WitHouT THe ELEctoRal CoLleGe candidates will only have to campaign in a few places.

 As opposed to the current system where Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina effectively choose the nominees....

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8 hours ago, freefourur said:

^ WitHouT THe ELEctoRal CoLleGe candidates will only have to campaign in a few places.

 

Which is the most compelling argument in favor of it.   

 

As for the nominees, that's actually the parties' call.....but since the midwest and upper south are the current swing areas, I have to think that the party that starts there will have an advantage.

 

Dean should have doubled down on his early tentative attacks on the Iowa caucuses.   He had to know he wasn't going to do well, and could expect to do well in New Hampshire.   

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https://theweek.com/speedreads/861619/every-major-2020-democrat-beats-trump-by-least-9-points-new-poll

 

Quote

A new poll from Quinnipiac released on Wednesday shows former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), as well as South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, all leading Trump among registered voters. Biden holds the largest lead over Trump with 16 points, while Sanders leads him by 14 points, Warren leads him by 12 points, Harris leads him by 11 points, and Buttigieg leads him by 9 points.

 

This same poll shows that 56 percent of voters disapprove of Trump's job performance — with 50 percent disapproving strongly — and only 30 percent say that Trump is doing more to unite the country than to divide it; that's an all-time low in this poll. With 37 percent of voters saying the economy is getting worse, Quinnipiac writes that this is the first time since Trump was elected that more say the economy is getting worse than getting better.

 


Very Stable Genius

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3 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

Quinnipiac conducted its poll by speaking to 1,422 registered voters nationwide over the phone from Aug. 21-26.

 

Does anyone under the age of 70 even answer the phone when you don't recognize who's calling? I'm really surprised you can get an accurate result this way. 

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1 minute ago, surfohio said:

Quinnipiac conducted its poll by speaking to 1,422 registered voters nationwide over the phone from Aug. 21-26.

 

Does anyone under the age of 70 even answer the phone when you don't recognize who's calling? I'm really surprised you can get an accurate result this way. 

 

Yes, but if Trump trails among the old, what are the odds he makes it back with gains among the young?

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4 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

 

Yes, but if Trump trails among the old, what are the odds he makes it back with gains among the young?

That's a good point. Gramarye Poll says Biden up by 30 points! 

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Your regular reminder that dirt doesn't vote. This voting map is pretty cool (except for reminding why most rural areas suck).....

 

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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."-Voltaire

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