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16 minutes ago, Ram23 said:

 

This is just the far right's version of the far left's "occupy" type protests. Liberals shut down interstates, Conservatives shut down Tesla charging stations. Both are pretty petulant, but at least the occupy Tesla protests don't screw over thousands of bystanders.

So blocking charging stations because you have a big truck is the same as protesting against police brutality.  You guys are getting bad at your both sides whataboutisms. 

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1 hour ago, Ram23 said:

 

This is just the far right's version of the far left's "occupy" type protests. Liberals shut down interstates, Conservatives shut down Tesla charging stations. Both are pretty petulant, but at least the occupy Tesla protests don't screw over thousands of bystanders.

 

What the hell are they protesting?

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Very Stable Genius

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Tesla has dropped the price of the Model 3 by $2,000 to partly compensate for the halving of the federal tax credit from $7,000 to $3,500:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/02/business/tesla-sales-price-cut.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

The article states that General Motors will experience the same tax credit cut on March 30.  Apparently GM has sold almost as many electric cars as Telsa but nobody is tweeting endlessly about it, so it's as if it never happened. 

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GM hasn't gained any momentum in the EV market. It will take them 8 years to hit 200k units. They just axed the Volt and the Bolt is on pace to sell less this year than last. 

 

Meanwhile Tesla sold more Model 3's in Q4 2018 than GM sold Bolts and Volts combined the last 2 years.

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...because small electric cars aren't profitable because small cars aren't profitable.  Hell, even sedans aren't profitable anymore. 

 

Tesla is still in a deep debt swamp.  Its luxury cars are profitable but the imaginary $35,000 Model 3 will never exist and it couldn't be profitable if it did exist.  The article alluded that the market for the Model 3 might be softening.  Tesla came within a few weeks of going bankrupt in 2018.  If we hit any sort of rocky patch in 2019, Tesla will be out-of-business in 2020. 

 

Also, irony of ironies -- the newest BART station is physically adjacent to the Tesla factory in Fremont, CA, although there is no way for pedestrians to simply walk to the factory.  Instead, it appears that they have to take a shuttle van or maybe a regular city bus to the factory.  Musk feigns ignorance of rapid transit systems yet his factory is physically adjacent to one!

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tesla+Factory+Store/@37.5008887,-121.9434532,981m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x808fc654f67bbf49:0x2d4f6c443c47fb25!8m2!3d37.492509!4d-121.9446156

 

 

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Civics and Corollas are profitable. It can be done. But if the sales staff's mouths are trained only to force crossovers and bigass trucks on people they become unprofitable. GM used to make tons of money from the Cavalier/Sunbird/Sunfire despite them being vastly inferior to Civics, Corollas, Sentras, Trecels, Stanzas and even the Geos/Chevys that were just Corollas with a GM badge.

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My mother has a 2018 Accord and despite being front wheel drive and a four door it's the best Camaro I've ever driven. It takes a company that actually cares about real cars to make a proper sedan. Recent American sedans were ashamed that they weren't SUVs.

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I am renting a Hyundai (I know) Sonata (I think) right now.  It has the buttery American suspension like a Grand Vic.  I seriously feel like an undercover cop driving the silly thing around.  It even has a center console that reminds me of a mid-80s Pontiac. 

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14 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

Including GM, which only wants to sell bigass trucks. If GM cared about anything besides bigass trucks they'd be making tons of noise about how many EVs they're selling.

 

There is actually an interesting theory going around in some of the EV circles that GM is secretly ramping up production of EVs - trucks even.  But it will take them 5-7 years to ramp up to full production.  So instead of announcing it, thus likely reducing their sales of ICE trucks in the next 3-5 years, they are publicly saying they aren't getting into the EV truck business.  Who knows if that's true, of course.  But if you were already a big manufacturer of ICE trucks switching to EV models, you wouldn't want to play your hand too soon and have sales plummet while people wait for a better version in a few years.


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They try at times to get off of the truck/SUV crack when gas prices rise, but the second the door to bigass trucks opens back up again they throw it all out. They are truly addicts. Ford and Jeep/Ram (err, I mean Chrysler) are the same way.

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17 hours ago, taestell said:

Tesla has reduced the priced on their cars by $2000 to remain competative after the loss of federal tax credits for electric car buyers. Their stock is currently down 10% on the news.

 

So does that base model $35k Model 3 now become $33k?

 

There never was any base Model 3 at $35k.  First, they aren't making that edition yet.  And even if they were, it would have been sold at $42.5k (or thereabouts) and then customers would have gotten the $7.5k tax credit (of course, you'd need a tax liability of at least that much to get the credit, if I'm not mistaken).  The $7.5k tax credit is gone now.

 

The absolute cheapest version of the Model 3 you can get right now - rear wheel drive, no enhanced auto pilot, black paint trim, 18'' wheels comes to $44k (without taxes) + $1,200 doc fee.  You'd then get a tax credit of $3,750.


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On ‎12‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 7:22 PM, Ram23 said:

 

This is just the far right's version of the far left's "occupy" type protests. Liberals shut down interstates, Conservatives shut down Tesla charging stations. Both are pretty petulant, but at least the occupy Tesla protests don't screw over thousands of bystanders.

 

If you can't seriously answer what they're protesting then I assume you are 1) a troll and/or 2) a terrible person.


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http://www.thedrive.com/news/25833/upcoming-tesla-model-y-crossover-will-start-at-40000-or-less-report

 

Supposedly, Tesla will unveil its Model Y this year with production to begin in 2020.  The Model Y is believed to be a crossover SUV and rumors are out there that the base price could be $40k (and instead of playing around with FWD, AWD, etc. types all models will come with AWD so there shouldn't be a whole lot of confusion on price v. production a la the Model 3).


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1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

If you can't seriously answer what they're protesting then I assume you are 1) a troll and/or 2) a terrible person.

 

I won't pretend to speak for anyone else, but if I had to guess, I assume they're protesting preferential treatment of electric car drivers over the common man. Free charging, preferred parking spaces, government subsidy, etc. I don't have a dog in this fight, though. I'd probably have an electric car if I didn't live in the city in a location I have no choice but to park on the street.

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Bad news for electric cars.  Not only is Ford ceasing to manufacture almost all cars, they brought back the defunct Ranger for 2019:

 

 

I priced one on Ford's website and a base model is listed for $24,000 but in all practicality few under about $29,000 will be sold.  Meanwhile, people drove off the lot in $23,000 Focuses for years.  No way does this thing, despite being physically larger, cost $6,000 more to manufacture.  That's way more money in Ford's pocket per unit. 

 

Tonight I paid $1.75 to fill up my car.  It's a really bad time for electric car technology to mature. 

 

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22 hours ago, Ram23 said:

Free charging, preferred parking spaces, government subsidy, etc.

 

Free charging = it's not free.  For a select few, it came with the purchase of a $60k+ vehicle.  For most, they pay for the electricity they use to charge at whatever charging station they are using.

Preferred parking space = you mean...where there are EV charging stations?  There are designated compact spots in parking garages, designated low-emission vehicle spots, etc.  This is stupid.

Government subsidy = are we going to protest corn too?  Because that is subsidized.

Edited by DarkandStormy

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11 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

Bad news for electric cars.  Not only is Ford ceasing to manufacture almost all cars, they brought back the defunct Ranger for 2019:

 

 

I priced one on Ford's website and a base model is listed for $24,000 but in all practicality few under about $29,000 will be sold.  Meanwhile, people drove off the lot in $23,000 Focuses for years.  No way does this thing, despite being physically larger, cost $6,000 more to manufacture.  That's way more money in Ford's pocket per unit. 

 

Tonight I paid $1.75 to fill up my car.  It's a really bad time for electric car technology to mature. 

 

 

 

Well, at least James Hetfield is having a good time in the screenshot

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Tesla’s Life After Hell: 7 Charts Show Musk on Firmer Footing

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-01-07/tesla-s-life-after-hell-7-charts-show-musk-on-firmer-footing

 

To start 2019, Tesla is turning out more than 4,700 Model 3s each week. The electric-car maker has emerged from its year of existential uncertainty as one of the most valuable car companies in the world, with a stock value greater than Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., BMW AG and, depending on the day of the week, Daimler AG. This may end up helping the company reduce its debt obligations and limit future borrowing costs. The hot mess that was last year has, somewhat surprisingly, forged Tesla into a company on more solid footing for the year ahead.

 

As more cars roll out, money is flowing in. The Model 3 is now  generating more revenue than any other sedan in the U.S., and Tesla’s cash flows have flipped from burning about $1.7 billion in the first half of 2018 to generating $774 million in the third quarter. (Results for the fourth quarter and full year are expected in February.)

 

=================================

 

Meanwhile, Volkswagen and others are just announcing someday-ish plans to start building electric cars eventually.  If jmecklenborg's post is right and VW starts building electric cars in Chattanooga in 2022, those cars will not be competing with today's Teslas, they'll be competing with the Tesla lineup of 2022, which at the current pace of Tesla's expansion will be considerably more varied and advanced.  Daimler and others are making similar someday-type promises (which don't affect the day-to-day culture or attention demands in C-suites).  And that's assuming that they actually start producing on time as promised; as Tesla has learned, that's not always easy.  (Tesla's delays get splattered all over the press, though, whereas normal corporate slouching from project to project does't attract nearly the same number of eyeballs.)

 

Realistically, Tesla will have the Model Y crossover in production by 2022 and might even have a light-duty pickup in the works by then.  If Tesla can take the pickup space away from the American OEMs who are increasingly one-trick-ponies with that as their only trick, I don't see how the Detroit crew can suddenly get their act together in time to survive.  They're defending smaller and smaller sandcastles and the tide is getting bigger and hungrier.

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22 hours ago, Gramarye said:

  Daimler and others are making similar someday-type promises (which don't affect the day-to-day culture or attention demands in C-suites).  And that's assuming that they actually start producing on time as promised; as Tesla has learned, that's not always easy.  (Tesla's delays get splattered all over the press, though, whereas normal corporate slouching from project to project does't attract nearly the same number of eyeballs.)
 

 

The difference is that they never verbally or officially set inaccurate timelines unlike Musk. It's the media that ascribes timelines to Chevrolet, Ford etc. Such as "The 1990 Mustang will be front wheel drive" in 1986 and "The 2003 Corvette is expected to be mid-engined" in 1998", not the companies themselves.

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9 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

The difference is that they never verbally or officially set inaccurate timelines unlike Musk. It's the media that ascribes timelines to Chevrolet, Ford etc. Such as "The 1990 Mustang will be front wheel drive" in 1986 and "The 2003 Corvette is expected to be mid-engined" in 1998", not the companies themselves.

 

The issue is that they do set such timelines when it comes to electric vehicles.  Maybe not VW specifically (until now, of course), but many other brands.  They are internally and externally compromised because in order to really market electric vehicles properly, they'd need to emphasize the positive comparisons of EVs with ICE vehicles--which of course would mean attacking their own ICE vehicles.  Therefore, they are not spending (major, C-suite-level capital expenditures) like they seriously believe that EVs are the future and/or that that future will arrive sooner than they think and they'd better be ready because the lead times for getting into that market are long.

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No electric vehicle is doing what a gasoline or diesel vehicle does at close to the same price.  We are certainly at least 10 years away if not 20+ from the point when an unsubsidized electric car can do what an unsubsidized gasoline vehicle can do. 

 

We had wild predictions of peak oil in the late 2000s that did not come to fruition.  We've got at least 10 if not 20+ years of cheap gasoline to go before the fracking boom levels off. 

 

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18 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

No electric vehicle is doing what a gasoline or diesel vehicle does at close to the same price.  We are certainly at least 10 years away if not 20+ from the point when an unsubsidized electric car can do what an unsubsidized gasoline vehicle can do. 

 

The cheapest Lexus - just as an example of a "luxury" brand vehicle, though there certainly are many others out there - sedan starts at $38k.

 

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/6/16428458/us-energy-coal-oil-subsidies

 

Quote

Friendly policies keep US oil and coal afloat far more than we thought

 

You can't really throw out the "unsubsidized" terminology when the energy for an ICE car is also subsidized.  It's how you enjoy "cheap" gas - though it's still much more expensive per mile than if you had an EV.


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27 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

No electric vehicle is doing what a gasoline or diesel vehicle does at close to the same price.  We are certainly at least 10 years away if not 20+ from the point when an unsubsidized electric car can do what an unsubsidized gasoline vehicle can do. 

 

I'm genuinely curious, have you test-driven a Tesla?  Because from personal experience, I would say that we are not only less than 10 years away from an electric vehicle being able to do what a gasoline or diesel vehicle does at the same price, we are less than zero years away.  The Tesla Model 3 is the bestselling luxury car in the US and is approaching being among the bestselling sedans in the US.

 

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/08/tesla-model-3-completely-crushing-us-luxury-car-competition-10-cleantechnica-charts/

 

It's not just crushing the Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, etc. competition, it almost outsold the Hyundai Elantra.  I'm curious how high it would need to get before it would change your mind.  What if it overtakes the Corolla, a car at least $15,000 (more like $20,000) cheaper than any Model 3 yet produced?  Even if 100% of the $7500 tax credit (which is now set to phase out) is attributable to the purchase price, it doesn't explain that gap.

 

27 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

We had wild predictions of peak oil in the late 2000s that did not come to fruition.  We've got at least 10 if not 20+ years of cheap gasoline to go before the fracking boom levels off. 

 

 

Yes, we do.  You can go back to the Peak Oil thread on these boards and find that I was a strong and persistent critic of the theory, or at least of giving the theory any kind of weight in policymaking or market analysis.  I still invested in Tesla early and bought one, and I stand by what I said about the dying dinosaurs of Detroit.  EV drivetrain technology is simply superior.

 

Electric vehicles are becoming competitive even against comparatively cheap gasoline.  For one thing, the natural gas produced from fracking also powers some of the cheapest electrical generators in the market today.  It isn't just keeping gasoline prices low, it's keeping electricity prices low, too.  For another, many employers and even stores are allowing EV owners to charge at their places of business for free.  Only about half of the electricity that has gone into my battery has come from my own meter or from paid Supercharging.

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5 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

 

I'm genuinely curious, have you test-driven a Tesla? 

 

 

No, I've never test-driven anything and I've never driven a luxury car of any kind.  I've ridden in a Mercedes twice and a Porche twice.  I've never been in a BMW or anything else.   I've never driven an SUV and haven't ridden in one since I got a ride home from high school in one 25~ years ago. 

 

I come from a land where people do not waste money on cars.  My dad downgraded from a Volvo to a Ford Focus when he became VP of his company. 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

The $35k Model 3 does not and never will exist.  The $35k Chevy Bolt does exist.  So does the $17k Chevy Spark.  Is one Chevy Bolt better than two Chevy Sparks?   

 

Is a burger from Max & Erma's better than two from McDonald's?


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3 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

The $35k Model 3 does not and never will exist.  The $35k Chevy Bolt does exist.  So does the $17k Chevy Spark.  Is one Chevy Bolt better than two Chevy Sparks?   

 

 

 

If Chevy beat it's chest about the Bolt, Volt and Spark instead of bigass trucks the sales would be out of control. How many people that had no business buying Camaros and Firebirds (which were terrible daily drivers for the vast majority of people) during the '80s bought them anyway because the commercials were both rad and prolific?

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Is a burger from Max & Erma's better than two from McDonald's?

 

 

I don't know I've never been to a Max & Erma's or know where one is.  I have heard of it, though. 

 

 

 

 

 

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You're not really making a case against EVs.  You're just making a case against any person spending more than ~$22k on a new vehicle.  Spoiler - some people will spend more than you on certain products.


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16 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

The $35k Model 3 does not and never will exist.  The $35k Chevy Bolt does exist.  So does the $17k Chevy Spark.  Is one Chevy Bolt better than two Chevy Sparks?

 

I am confident that the $35k Model 3 will exist within 2 years.  Meanwhile, the $35k Chevy Bolt is seeing sales slumping in the US, and GM is starting to target foreign markets for it:

 

https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/chevy-bolt-ev-sales-slumping-us/

 

We'll see how that goes.  But at least in the US, Tesla's $55k cars are dominating GM's $35k offering.  People will pay for quality.

 

15 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

 

No, I've never test-driven anything and I've never driven a luxury car of any kind.  I've ridden in a Mercedes twice and a Porche twice.  I've never been in a BMW or anything else.   I've never driven an SUV and haven't ridden in one since I got a ride home from high school in one 25~ years ago. 

 

I come from a land where people do not waste money on cars.  My dad downgraded from a Volvo to a Ford Focus when he became VP of his company.

 

I used to be from that land, too.  I bought my first and second cars used, in cash.  My first was $7200, ultimately traded in for a little above scrap value, and my second was $14k, traded in to Tesla for $7k.  Those combined lasted me from 2007 to 2018.

 

Tesla changed that game for me, and for many others, too.  They even call it the Tesla Stretch ... people, like me, who would never have dropped $55k on a car prior to Tesla will do so for a Tesla.  So now I have a Tesla, and the first car payment of my life (and it's admittedly a doozy, since I took a 42-month loan to take advantage of my credit union's 1.99% APR), and I'm obviously an enthusiastic promoter of the brand and a shareholder.

 

15 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Is a burger from Max & Erma's better than two from McDonald's?

 

Even if not, almost anyone will have more use for two cheap burgers than for two cheap cars.  People need one reliable car.  Of course, there are cars that are both reliable and cheap (e.g., the Toyota Corolla that the Model 3 is closing in on in sales figures).  They're just also not as exhilarating to drive, and you have to waste time taking them to gas stations rather than just waking up and just having them filled with fuel and ready to go.

 

39 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

You're not really making a case against EVs.  You're just making a case against any person spending more than ~$22k on a new vehicle.  Spoiler - some people will spend more than you on certain products.

 

That's getting harder and harder to do, too.  The base MSRP of the Corolla is $18,700.  Civic is $19,450.  Sentra is $17,790.  The Focus that his dad got is going out of production; last model was $17,950.  Any modest level of options and you're closing in on that $22k level.

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Trouble in paradise:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/18/business/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk/index.html

 

I return to the "moat" business concept popularized by Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger.  Tesla is only enjoying a brief "moat" advantage.   Other manufacturers will soon enter the luxury car, sports car, and SUV markets.  Porche, Mercedes, etc.  Tesla is borrowing money like crazy to try and "get big", so will be vulnerable to collapse. 

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