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2012 Presidential Election Discussion

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^Ohio's going to be really close in November.  If you're an Obama supporter I wouldn't get comfortable.  The good news for Obama supporters is that I don't think Obama needs Ohio to win the election.  Analysis I heard this morning points to Virginia as being the key state this year.  They were saying that Romney would need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida to have a chance.

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No Republican has ever won with a Presidential Election without winning Ohio.  It has only been done by a Democrat a handful of times, I believe.  Considering this fact and the $$ which will be pumped in here by the Super PACs, I need to start looking for a time share in Nebraska (or some other largely homogeneous state) to escape to in the Fall and avoid the bombardment of advertisements.

 

Absent new and significant developments/revelations about either candidate, I predict the election will come down to whoever wins Ohio (just like in 2004).

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Great advertising, too. So far I've learned that Obama is a liberal, and Mitt Romney has the unmitigated gall to be a millionaire. What a jerk.

 

Personally, I think the republicans should focus on how shrunken and gray Obama has become, compared to how distinguished, and square-jawed Romney is.

 

"Liberal Barack Obama doesn't even have the courtesy to use Grecian Formula to hide his gray hair. What are you so stressed about anyway, President Obama? You're liberal agenda??

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is hale and hearty, and the model of American exceptionalism. Why, with that jaw, he could be a superhero, which would make Liberal Barack Obama the supervillain we all know he is.

 

Mitt Romney: Handsome!"

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Since my kids each have their own phone now I was tossing around the idea of disconnecting the land line.... DONE.

No more robo calls for me

 

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Anyone know how to stop the texts to my phone? No, I really don't want to win dinner at Sarah Jessica Parker's house with <liberal> Barack Obama. (sorry...I guess the ads ARE working)

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If Rommey were to call out the tea baggers, homophobes, gun nuts, and other crazies in his party for acting like buffoons 24/7, and if he were to chastise the obstructionist Republicans in Congress who are willing to bankrupt the country just to throw it into our president's face, then Romney wins a lot of respect and probably most states. It's not like anyone beyond staunch lefitists are happy with Obama at this point.

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It's not like anyone beyond staunch lefitists are happy with Obama at this point.

 

Not true at all.  "Staunch leftists" are hardly happy with his moderate, pragmatic approach.  Oftentimes, they are his biggest critics.  Take a look at his record:

 

- GBay still open

- War in Afghanistan still going

- New armed conflict in Libya

- Drone killings

- Patriot Act preserved and (in some ways) extended

- Tax cuts extended (twice)

- Waiting forever and a day to support gay marriage (and still fell short of the type of support needed)

- No real progress towards alternative/clean energy

- Nothing substantial done for the environment

- Caving to pressure from the right on Health Care - no single payer - not even a public option

 

 

People keep asking what happened to all of the moderate Republicans...... I'd tell them they can find at least one at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

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Great advertising, too. So far I've learned that Obama is a liberal, and Mitt Romney has the unmitigated gall to be a millionaire. What a jerk.

 

Personally, I think the republicans should focus on how shrunken and gray Obama has become, compared to how distinguished, and square-jawed Romney is.

 

"Liberal Barack Obama doesn't even have the courtesy to use Grecian Formula to hide his gray hair. What are you so stressed about anyway, President Obama? You're liberal agenda??

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is hale and hearty, and the model of American exceptionalism. Why, with that jaw, he could be a superhero, which would make Liberal Barack Obama the supervillain we all know he is.

 

Mitt Romney: Handsome!"

 

Well, it is better than anything else he as going for him.

 

 

Tedolph

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It's not like anyone beyond staunch lefitists are happy with Obama at this point.

 

Not true at all.  "Staunch leftists" are hardly happy with his moderate, pragmatic approach.  Oftentimes, they are his biggest critics.  Take a look at his record:

 

- GBay still open

- War in Afghanistan still going

- New armed conflict in Libya

- Drone killings

- Patriot Act preserved and (in some ways) extended

- Tax cuts extended (twice)

- Waiting forever and a day to support gay marriage (and still fell short of the type of support needed)

- No real progress towards alternative/clean energy

- Nothing substantial done for the environment

- Caving to pressure from the right on Health Care - no single payer - not even a public option

 

 

People keep asking what happened to all of the moderate Republicans...... I'd tell them they can find at least one at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

 

And that in the end is one reason Romney really doesn't have much of a chance.

 

Once the Supreme Court gets done eviscerating Obamacare it is going to be a choise between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum and the incumbent Tweedle Dee wins. 

 

And that is before the press starts asking Romney about the spiritual status of native Americans, African Americans, Jesus's brother (Lucifer), etc. under Mormanism; and his wifes love affair with dressage horsies.

 

That is going to go over big with Mr. and Mrs. Six Pack.

 

 

It is going to be a train wreck for the Republicans.

 

 

Too bad that will leave Obama in place with his Kensian economic beliefs.

 

Not that Romeny would have done much differently.

 

Does anyone have any cyanide pills I could borrow?

 

 

Tedolph.

 

 

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I think the race is still up for grabs, will be very closely decided, and those on the fence will likely be persuaded by the differing approaches to the economy. 

 

- The economy is going to become a bigger issue and neither has a very credible record as a "job creator" in my opinion. 

- Romney may know how to make money & be successful in business, but that's a different matter. 

- Don't forget, we have debates between these two yet which could go a long way in changing public opinion. 

- Romney still has to choose a running mate which will also be a major point in solidifying the base

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Obama spending binge never happened

 

Commentary: Government outlays rising at slowest pace since 1950s

 

 

MW-AR658_spendi_20120521163312_ME.jpg

 

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Of all the falsehoods told about President Barack Obama, the biggest whopper is the one about his reckless spending spree.

 

As would-be president Mitt Romney tells it: “I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno.”

 

Almost everyone believes that Obama has presided over a massive increase in federal spending, an “inferno” of spending that threatens our jobs, our businesses and our children’s future. Even Democrats seem to think it’s true.

 

But it didn’t happen.*  *  *  *  *

 

Why do people think Obama has spent like a drunken sailor? It’s in part because of a fundamental misunderstanding of the federal budget.

 

What people forget (or never knew) is that the first year of every presidential term starts with a budget approved by the previous administration and Congress. The president only begins to shape the budget in his second year. It takes time to develop a budget and steer it through Congress — especially in these days of congressional gridlock.

 

The 2009 fiscal year, which Republicans count as part of Obama’s legacy, began four months before Obama moved into the White House.

 

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-22/commentary/31802270_1_spending-federal-budget-drunken-sailor

 

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No Republican has ever won with a Presidential Election without winning Ohio.  It has only been done by a Democrat a handful of times, I believe.  Considering this fact and the $$ which will be pumped in here by the Super PACs, I need to start looking for a time share in Nebraska (or some other largely homogeneous state) to escape to in the Fall and avoid the bombardment of advertisements.

 

Absent new and significant developments/revelations about either candidate, I predict the election will come down to whoever wins Ohio (just like in 2004).

FYI, JFK and FDR were the only Democrats to win without Ohio in the 20th century. (In one of FDR's campaigns, the Republican running mate was an Ohioan.) In the 19th century we were less reliable.

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Obama spending binge never happened

 

Commentary: Government outlays rising at slowest pace since 1950s

 

 

MW-AR658_spendi_20120521163312_ME.jpg

 

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Of all the falsehoods told about President Barack Obama, the biggest whopper is the one about his reckless spending spree.

 

As would-be president Mitt Romney tells it: “I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno.”

 

Almost everyone believes that Obama has presided over a massive increase in federal spending, an “inferno” of spending that threatens our jobs, our businesses and our children’s future. Even Democrats seem to think it’s true.

 

But it didn’t happen.*  *  *  *  *

 

Why do people think Obama has spent like a drunken sailor? It’s in part because of a fundamental misunderstanding of the federal budget.

 

What people forget (or never knew) is that the first year of every presidential term starts with a budget approved by the previous administration and Congress. The president only begins to shape the budget in his second year. It takes time to develop a budget and steer it through Congress — especially in these days of congressional gridlock.

 

The 2009 fiscal year, which Republicans count as part of Obama’s legacy, began four months before Obama moved into the White House.

 

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-22/commentary/31802270_1_spending-federal-budget-drunken-sailor

 

 

Last night I spent $100 on dinner for one, and tonight I'll spend $102 but it's not like I'm a big spender because that's only a 2% increase.

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^I only paid $98 for a Happy Meal last time I was in NYC.  You just need to shop around a bit more...

 

Getting back to the point about the false outrage, the only person who gets the Ted Nugent types up in arms more than Obama, comedian/commentor Bill Maher, pretty much handed them their lunch on this one -

 

WARNING: Profanity

 

Bill Maher_ What Exactly Has Obama Done That Has Made Conservatives So Angry?

 

My favorite line (taling about a Progressive's wishlist) - "If you get to carry around all this outrage out of me gettting all of this sh*t, shouldn't I have gotten it!"

 

 

And, another clip from the same show in response to The Donald resurfacing the Birther talk (to make this better, he should have worn a Sean Hannity mask to go along with the hand gestures)....

 

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I usually don't participate in polls, but I indulged a pollster who called yesterday.  I was just curious as to what the topics would be.  What a sh!tty experience.  I am going to be very skeptical of polling this election season.

 

First, I inquired as to who commissioned the poll.  The lady gave me the name of the firm she worked for.  I clarified that I was looking for whomever had hired her company to do the poll.  She wouldn't/couldn't give me an answer (although by the end of the call, it was rather clear).  I participated nonetheless.

 

The questions started off rather bland, basically asking questions about myself and my voting habits.  But when we got to policy questions, I had a hard time answering any of them.  The questions were so loaded I don't see how any respectable pollster could think the responses will lead to any reliable data.  They were akin to - "the President wants to put your nuts in a vicegrip..... would you say that makes you less likely or more likely to vote for him?"  And people wonder why 'internal polling' (such as the anti-Scott Walker groups suggesting their polling showed a dead heat) always leans towards the side who conducts the poll.

 

Ridiculous.

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not a joke, not likely either

what I meant was that the Constitution Party has never fielded a candidate who has held office before. Goode is pretty much a career politician serving Virginia as a Democrat, Republican & independent.

The Constitution has 0 people in office & their top vote getter for president received only about 200,000 votes.

I wrote an article about the guy & 3rd party crap (full of bistro stats) here:

http://quimbob.blogspot.com/2012/06/goode-effect-constitution-party.html

Goode & Johnson combined might have an effect on Romney this year.

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I think Obama stepped in a pile of dog doo this week by introducing his new policy of not enforcing illegal immigration.  While it certainly plays up to the Hispanic voting segment, it also plays right into Romney's hand as a pure political stunt, done to garner votes just ahead of election.  It also opens questions about what the Obama administration is doing by ignoring certain laws they don't agree with.  I was surprised by Romney's response, at least what they're showing in news clips, that he'd send em all back to get in line and go through the normal process of legal immigration.  I'm sure that went over like a lead balloon with the Hispanic voters.

 

Romney's VP search continues to be kept underwraps.  No candidates jumping off the page either.  Rubio is not in contention despite all the press he's getting.  I think Republicans feel he's too valuable in the position he holds now as Florida senator.

 

It will also be interesting to see both sides react to the upcoming Healthcare ruling.  They both undoubtedly have rehearsed responses for either outcome but regardless which way it goes, one side will be smiling & saying "I told ya so...."

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^I actually think it was a good move by Obama to announce his amnesty program now.  And despite what many on the right want you to believe his policy is actually accepted if not endorsed by many of the thinkers in the Republican Party.  People like George Will are calling it "good policy".  If anyone is stepping in it it's Romney with his "send them all back" and "self deportation" rhetoric.

 

And it sounds like Obama has the right strategy here.  I heard this morning that an analysis showed that for the first time in decades the Presidency can be won without Florida or Ohio.  Obama appears to be shoring up the Hispanic vote in what some are calling a Western Strategy.  If it works he can win without winning Ohio or Florida, but I think he would need to carry Virginia.  Point is, Obama's reelection chances still look very good and this amnesty policy will probably help him.  It won't help him in Texas or Alabama, but I really don't think he cares about that right now.

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Of course it was a play for the hispanic vote.  And it was a political stunt in the sense that it really derailed the points of emphasis Romney wanted his bus tour to focus on.  It definitely caught him off-guard and the reactions from his camp were mixed to say the least.  Regardless, it is not solely a political stunt because it is something Obama genuinely wants and has advocated for in the past.

 

As far as it playing into Romney's hands as an attempt to garner votes, my reactions is hahahahahahahahahahaha!  You can't be serious..... not after all of the flip-flopping, far-right diving Romney did during the primary which he is now trying to etch-n-sketch his way out of.

 

The best argument the Romney camp has is that it is an overreach of the Executive power..... which is kind of hard for him to make considering all of the exercises of executive discretion he has already promised in his "first day in office", such as repealing "Obamacare" or.... wait for it..... refusing to enact and enforce the regulations the legislative act calls for. 

 

This move by Obama could have multiple levels of complexity to it.  There is a chance that, in fact, he did this to throw the pile of dogshit right in Romney's path.

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Romney Campaign Said to Ask Scott to Downplay Job Gains

By Michael C. Bender on June 21, 2012

 

Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign asked Florida Governor Rick Scott to tone down his statements heralding improvements in the state’s economy because they clash with the presumptive Republican nominee’s message that the nation is suffering under President Barack Obama, according to two people familiar with the matter.

 

Scott, a Republican, was asked to say that the state’s jobless rate could improve faster under a Romney presidency, according to the people, who asked not to be named.

 

What’s unfolding in Florida highlights a dilemma for the Romney campaign: how to allow Republican governors to take credit for economic improvements in their states while faulting Obama’s stewardship of the national economy. Republican governors in Ohio, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin also have highlighted improving economies.

 

...

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-20/romney-campaign-said-to-ask-scott-to-downplay-job-gains

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Once the Supreme Court gets done eviscerating Obamacare it is going to be a choise between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum and the incumbent Tweedle Dee wins.

This has nothing to do with that, I just thought I'd quote it anyway.

 

Obama is best Pres 'to beat alien invasion'

But Americans would rather leave it to Batman

"Two-thirds of Americans reckon Barack Obama would be better than his Republican presidential rival, Mitt Romney, at defending the Land of the Free when Mars attacks."

 

http://www.reghardware.com/2012/06/28/obama_best_pres_to_beat_alien_invasion/

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So all the news outlets were buzzing yesterday that Romney got booed yesterday by the NAACP.  He also drew some applause, but that's not very newsworthy.  Nancy Pelosi says Romney wanted to be booed.  Rush Limbaugh says he was booed because he was white.  Obama didn't even show up, due to a scheduling conflict but has no public events scheduled, and sent Joe "loose lips" Biden instead.  NAACP downplays Obama's absence & says they are thrilled to have Joe instead. 

 

It's amazing how much spin is out there.

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Well.... you can always count on the NYT to be fair and balanced....

 

To Boos and Polite Applause, Romney Speaks to the N.A.A.C.P.

 

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/to-boos-and-polite-applause-romney-speaks-to-the-n-a-a-c-p/

 

BTW.... doesn't the fact that he was so roundly booed when announcing his intention to repeal 'Obamacare' show that "the American People" don't want him to cram/jam/ram/bam/wham a repeal down their throats?

 

 

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Romney is having a horrible week:

 

"Mitt Romney stayed at Bain 3 years longer than he stated"

 

http://bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/07/11/government-documents-indicate-mitt-romney-continued-bain-after-date-when-says-left/IpfKYWjnrsel4pvCFbsUTI/story.html

 

Romney has said he left Bain in 1999 to lead the winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, ending his role in the company. But public Securities and Exchange Commission documents filed later by Bain Capital state he remained the firm’s “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president.”

 

Also, a Massachusetts financial disclosure form Romney filed in 2003 states that he still owned 100 percent of Bain Capital in 2002. And Romney’s state financial disclosure forms indicate he earned at least $100,000 as a Bain “executive” in 2001 and 2002, separate from investment earnings.

 

Which means that Romney either lied to the American people or lied to the SEC.  It also leads right into the next story

 

"Falsely reporting your corporate status to the feds is a felony"

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/07/the-bain-1.html

"EXCLUSIVE: Romney Invested Millions in Chinese Firm That Profited on US Outsourcing"

 

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/bain-capital-mitt-romney-outsourcing-china-global-tech

 

This after Mitt Romney accused Barack Obama of being "Outsourcer in Chief" yesterday (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/10/romney-takes-on-outsourcing-claim/)

 

"Boos, Bain, and Bank Accounts.  What's next for Mitt Romney"

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/boos-bain-and-bank-accounts-whats-romneys-next-move-the-note/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

Having bank accounts in Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland all while not releasing his taxes is yet another serious problem for the Romney campaign.  The Super PAC's and base of the conservative party have got to be furious

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I look for the "outsourcing" charges against Romney to become an asset to him come debate time.  Obama's talk of raising taxes on wealthy individuals, on corporations, and implementing Obamacare are only going to accelerate outsourcing and more money being stashed off shore.  Romney can tell Americans that with a straight face and they'll believe him.  As for the "boo's" at the NAACP, Nancy Pelosi probably had it right when she said it was a calculated move.  In terms of bank accounts, I don't think most Americans really care.  John Kerry's vast net worth didn't seem to be a hindrance in 2004.

 

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I look for the "outsourcing" charges against Romney to become an asset to him come debate time.  Obama's talk of raising taxes on wealthy individuals, on corporations, and implementing Obamacare are only going to accelerate outsourcing and more money being stashed off shore.  Romney can tell Americans that with a straight face and they'll believe him.  As for the "boo's" at the NAACP, Nancy Pelosi probably had it right when she said it was a calculated move.  In terms of bank accounts, I don't think most Americans really care.  John Kerry's vast net worth didn't seem to be a hindrance in 2004.

 

1) How can Romney with a straight face call the President the "Outsourcer in Chief" when his records clearly state he invested in Chinese firms that encouraged outsourcing as documented?  Where is his credibility?  Its the exact same legitimacy problems he has when he presents killing "Obamacare".  Then you add to this the fact he is misleading the American people, the SEC or both about leaving Bain in 1999.  This is a serious PR problem for the Romney campaign in my opinion

2) I'm with you on the boo's

3) John Kerry lost the election because Bush painted him as an "Out of touch elitist".  It also didn't help that Kerry had the charisma of a rock (not unlike Romney). In my opinion, I see a lot of similarities in Obama's attacks on Mitt that Bush used against Kerry.  Extreme wealth, Out of touch, Foreign bank accounts, etc. 

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^Yeah... I don't know where this notion that Kerry's wealth was not an issue in 2004 is coming from.  People have very short.... or, more likely, very selective.... memories

 

I wouldn't base any assumptions about "the American people" on some reaction from a room full of NAACP VIP's

 

Why not?... the GOP does it all the time based on the reaction of a town hall full of angry "Real Americans" (hence the sarcasm in my post).

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John Kerry had a long political career to run on/defend.  His personal wealth was hardly a focus of criticisms by the media or his opponent.  He lost to Bush because the US was in the midst of the war on terror and was afraid to change directions in the middle of that "gung ho" sentiment.

 

Perhaps if Obama had any sort of private sector experience on his resume, he might have some ideas about how to make money in business without engaging in outsourcing.  Attacking Romney on the outsourcing is not going to win over swing voters in my opinion.  The only question they'll be asking is what has Obama done to deserve another 4 years.  Romney has done a terrible job thus far of presenting his own jobs plan though. 

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Attacking Romney on the outsourcing is not going to win over swing voters in my opinion. 

 

Recent polling data has suggested otherwise.... that the attack ads on Romney's involvement with Bain have been very influential in the swing states.  That's why they continue to do it.

 

John Kerry had a long political career to run on/defend.  His personal wealth was hardly a focus of criticisms by the media or his opponent.  He lost to Bush because the US was in the midst of the war on terror and was afraid to change directions in the middle of that "gung ho" sentiment.

 

When did the war on terror end?

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^so how do you feel about the latest Romney ad featuring Hillary Clinton from 2008 saying "Barack Obama should be ashamed of himself"....  you think that's polling well in swing states???

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I don't have a problem with it.  She said it.  It's not twisted in any way.  Personally, I see it as more damaging to her than to Obama.  In fact, I believe that was the precise time when I made up my mind that I was voting for him over her in the primary.  She lost her cool..... he never does

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