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FakeCinEnquirer

Hamilton County Politics

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Also Hamilton County is just now finally turning blue but still has strong pockets on Republican voters especially in the western half of the county and then again in Indian Hill.

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Does anyone know if there is a map that shows how the various communities in Hamilton County voted in the 2016 election? I think it would be endlessly fascinating to see how different neighborhoods voted in the red/blue/purple map that they use for counties and states. The New York Times has a map of Ohio that shows how each county voted, but I can't seem to find anything more detailed.

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^Amazing! Ask and ye shall receive for real!

 

Looking at the map now. Wow, the entire West side is completely red outside of Cincinnati city limits, 1 district from Green Twp., and 2 in Colerain. The core blue area is the city and the diverse northern central burbs, as one would expect. But Blue Ash, much of Montgomery, Mariemont, part of Symmes Twp. are also blue, which aligns with my perception of these areas, but appear to be outliers given the rest of the county map. It's also interesting that both Norwood and St. Bernard went red despite being totally surrounded by city neighborhoods that went heavily blue, again aligning with my perceptions of those areas.

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In a surprising move, Hamilton County commissioners voted 3-0 to rescind the property tax increase that they had previously passed. This comes after (1.) the Hamilton County GOP gathered enough signatures to force a public vote on the issue this November, and (2.) others accused the commissioners of not following the proper process to pass the increase in the first place, leaving the county open to a lawsuit, even if it survived the vote in November.

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On the flip side, a number of Hamilton County conservatives seem to be angry that the county simply backed down rather than allowing it to go to a public vote. The reason, of course, is that the local GOP wanted the issue on the ballot in order to drive more conservatives to the polls and help Chabot's chances.

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On the flip side, a number of Hamilton County conservatives seem to be angry that the county simply backed down rather than allowing it to go to a public vote. The reason, of course, is that the local GOP wanted the issue on the ballot in order to drive more conservatives to the polls and help Chabot's chances.

 

Yep. 

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And probably the whole reason Portune forced the Hamilton County representatives on SORTA to go against a sales tax increase is because they were going to have one of their own on the November ballot for the county budget.

 

What a mess. Now he'll probably try to convince them to not go for a May ballot either because they'll have to go back and redo a vote and that will go to the ballot box in May, too.

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^ No Portune forced SORTA to push the sales tax initiative back because he did not want it to compete with his sales tax for the county and he knew if SORTA had one on the ballot at the same time they would both go down in flames.

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^ No Portune forced SORTA to push the sales tax initiative back because he did not want it to compete with his sales tax for the county and he knew if SORTA had one on the ballot at the same time they would both go down in flames.

 

I think that's what ryanlammi[/member] was saying.

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Portune has been around long enough and is pretty entrenched in the local political scene that he really does not need to play the party games anymore. He pretty much can run his office how he wants and the party can be damned if they don't agree with him. He is like Dusty  Rhodes in that regard.

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Well, almost every person I know that works or has worked at SORTA has been saying for months that the Metro tax wasn't going to happen. As much as the board has been saying they want to stabilize and improve Metro and holding public input sessions, their heart wasn't in it. It was never going to be on the November ballot, regardless of what happened with his Hamilton County sales tax increase.

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Hamilton County’s red ink could increase by millions

 

Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune warned other county officials on Monday that their budget requests are increasing the county’s potential deficit from $29 million to $42 million.

 

The county commissioners write the budget for all county departments, including independent elected officials. But often, those officials spend more than what the county budgets for.

 

“It suggests there is a level of disconnect,” Portune said. “This is not going to end up in a way that anybody will be happy with.

 

“This is real. We can’t go in a direction where the requests we’re getting are increasing the gap."

 

More below:

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/09/10/hamilton-county-s-red-ink-could-increase-by.html

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Chris Monzel is OUT of local politics for the first time in 15+ years.  Dumas wins commission seat; first time all three seats have been D's in over 100 years. 

 

Dumas hardly raised any money and hardly campaigned.  She walked into this like how Brad Wenstrup walked into Ohio's Second District seat. 

 

 

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It looks like Hamilton County has taken the jump to become solidly blue. Montgomery County has gone the opposite way, becoming pink. I guess the big question is how permanent the Trumpist realignment of party coalitions is. One thing is certain, Hamilton has lost its use as a bellwether for the state.

 

Dumas is a good example of this. She won because she had a D next to her name.

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I'm somewhat up to speed on local politics, but I'll admit today that prior to today, I didn't even realize this was going to be a competitive race between Monzel and Dumas.  I had heard a handful of radio commercials over the past few weeks for Monzel, but I had heard zero coverage for Dumas.  I had kind of assumed Monzel was a lock to win yesterday and that the results would be similar to what we saw in 2014 (when an unknown from North College Hill ran against Monzel and lost fairly handily).

 

I did happen listen to 550 on my way into work this morning and heard Brian Thomas interviewing Chris Monzel.  You would have thought the end of the world was coming with how much doom and gloom they were saying would become of these results.

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Dumas won because of the Aftab effect. Aftab really never had a chance to flip the OH-1, but it was a GOP +9 and he lost by 5 points. That is overperforming, and it happened in Hamilton County. If Aftab was not on the ballot generating the excitement in Hamilton County Dumas loses.

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To be honest I really dislike Monzel and lately the Republican party in general so I voted for Dumas.  I can't say I know anything about her.  She shouldn't be worse than Monzel.

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She somehow won the primary against the mayor of North College Hill Mt. Healthy this spring, too. He was well organized and well funded for a County Commissioner election. No one was expecting her to win the primary, let alone the actual Commissioner seat.

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Election Analysis: Red state, blue county 

 

Hamilton County was a disaster for Republicans. In addition to the statewide Democratic candidates easily winning the county, the GOP lost its only representative on the Hamilton County Commission when Stephanie Summerow Dumas, a former Forest Park mayor, beat incumbent GOP Commissioner Chris Monzel, 51 percent to 49 percent.

 

Just as important were the apparent Democratic victories in five of the eight judicial seats in Hamilton County, a major priority for a political party whose influence at the courthouse has been minimal. Democrats made a major effort to get their voters to complete their ballots, where the judicial races don’t identify the candidates by party.

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/11/07/election-analysis-red-state-blue-county.html

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1 hour ago, ryanlammi said:

She somehow won the primary against the mayor of North College Hill this spring, too. He was well organized and well funded for a County Commissioner election. No one was expecting her to win the primary, let alone the actual Commissioner seat.

 

No, he's mayor of Mt. Healthy.  I went to high school with him and recently saw him at the Northside Yacht Club.  I ate lunch for 3 years in high school with the future mayor of North College Hill, Jason Fulmer.  He abdicated that throne around 2012 when he and his wife bought her parents' house in Northern Kentucky. 

Edited by jmecklenborg
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Commissioners vote to reduce 1996 property tax rollback:

https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/hamilton-county/hamilton-county-raises-property-taxes-to-pay-for-bengals-reds-stadiums

 

Property taxes will increase roughly $4 per month per $100,000. 

 

So all of this drama over the past 20 years by Republican-led commissions over $1 per week. 

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I didn't realize that they simultaneously reduced property taxes when the stadium tax passed.  That pisses me off even more. Middle income and rich people don't have to pay for the stadiums, poor people do!  I can't wait until this crap comes up in 2026 so I can vote it down.  It would behoove Hamilton County to put a metro levy (BRT and Rail funding with plan well drawn and presented) up against it and ask people what they'd rather vote for. Hopefully the Bengals still suck when it comes up, and hopefully the May Metro levy passes too so Hamilton Co pays for Metro instead of the city of Cincinnati.

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Yep. The property tax rollback never made any real sense and should have been eliminated years ago as the county started having financial troubles. Also, only owner-occupied units are supposed to receive a credit from the rollback, but I would bet that there are a lot of homeowners who are renting out their home or condo and still receiving the credit because they never contacted the county and told them to stop giving it to them.

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It was always an irrelevant property tax savings but they milked the drama for 20 years.  If you explained how little the savings was to people, they thought you were lying. 

 

Basically nobody knows that you can get on the auditor's website and there is a pie chart break-down of where your property taxes go.  Their eyes flick away when you bring up their pie chart.  People double-down on myths even when they're proven wrong. 

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50 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

Basically nobody knows that you can get on the auditor's website and there is a pie chart break-down of where your property taxes go

Can you provide a direct link?

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To  your point Jake. The County has wide leeway to adjust the millage on property taxes despite the property value. They do this every day where they adjust the millage year by year to meet their numbers (they have limitations of course), so even in times with declining property values, the amounts collected do not always fall proportionally either. So for the 20% stadium tax break people have received, we probably are really getting nothing because the millage creeps up on the back end anyway. 

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^Correct.  Some property taxes have a fixed millage, others are adjusted annually to raise, collectively, a set amount. 

 

The rollback did not apply to Richie's, I don't think, since it is a commercial property.  A more typical property is Mark Miller's of COAST:

https://wedge1.hcauditor.org/view/re/0410005007500/2017/tax_distributions

 

He could of course move to a smaller house in a cheap part of town if he actually cared about paying less property tax, but anti-tax groups don't actually care about taxes. 

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