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Seth

Ohio's 1st Congressional District

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First a look at today's article about the district from The Economist and then a look at two political ads.

 

Ohio's 1st congressional district

In black and white

Democrats must energise their base if they are to win in November

 

Sep 2nd 2010 | cincinnati

...

This is Ohio’s 1st congressional district. Covering most of Cincinnati and surrounding Hamilton County, it is a diverse political barometer with a Democratic urban core and suburbs full of Republicans and independents. George Bush carried the district in 2004; Barack Obama won it in 2008, by 11 points. Mr Driehaus was elected that year, defeating Steve Chabot, a Republican who had held the seat for 14 years and who now wants it back.

...

Mr Driehaus’s voting record is a tough sell here. He voted for the stimulus package and the health-care act, though only after the White House issued an executive order that keeps federal funding restrictions on abortions. Mr Chabot’s record is easier to glean; he resolutely opposed bail-outs when he was a congressman in the autumn of 2008. If elected, he will work to halt funding for the health-care act, though he would support new legislation to cut costs and expand coverage.

...

 

201036usm950.gif

 

more: http://www.economist.com/node/16943984?story_id=16943984&fsrc=rss

 

 

Now the ads in the race.

 

First from Rep. Steve Driehaus.  Watch this ad and say which political party this guy sounds like he's a member of:

 

Chabot's response basically wrote itself:

Steve Driehaus - Double Talk

 

OH1.gif

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Driehaus: Race about Cincy, not Obama

 

By Quan Truong • qtruong@enquirer.com • September 7, 2010

 

U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus warned that his Republican opponent will do everything he can to nationalize the 1st Congressional District election – to make it about President Barack Obama and control of Congress.

 

more: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100907/NEWS010603/9080322/Driehaus-Not-about-Obama

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Seems Democrats have considered this one a lost cause:

 

Democrats yank $500K TV ad buy for Rep. Steve Driehaus

 

In a sign that Democrats may be waving the white flag in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has pulled over $500,000 in TV advertising on Cincinnati TV stations in support of Rep. Steve Driehaus, the Price Hill Democrat who is trying to win a second term in Congress.

 

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101012/NEWS0108/310120049/Dems-yank-ads-for-Driehaus

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Driehaus: Race about Cincy, not Obama

 

By Quan Truong • qtruong@enquirer.com • September 7, 2010

 

U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus warned that his Republican opponent will do everything he can to nationalize the 1st Congressional District election – to make it about President Barack Obama and control of Congress.

 

more: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100907/NEWS010603/9080322/Driehaus-Not-about-Obama

He seems to have made it about Pelosi & Boehner.

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I got to see both of these guys talk last week as part of a class at UC, DAAP.  Even in a class that mostly consisted of fairly liberal planning, design, and architecture majors - Driehaus didn't make so good of an impression.  It wasn't a debate, they each just talked and took questions separately, for an hour each.  Chabot gave pretty straightforward answers, even in shooting down the 3-C project (to a class half full of urban planners). Driehaus gave pretty convoluted responses most of the time. 

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2 interesting stories that could be seen as kinda connected. (well in my demented mind)

The gerrymandering of the first district leaves the city of Cincinnati with less of a voice.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/23/citys-voice-in-congressional-district-shrinks/

The city of Cincinnati apologizes for actions of a police officer following 1st district congressman, Steve Chabot's orders.

http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/news/local_news/settlement-reached-in-camera-seizing-at-chabot-event

 

So, I'm guessing we can expect more of this in the future even tho Chabot claims to have modified (not corrected) his policies.

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Steve Chabot's globetrotting is taken on at the Porktown Fishwarp. Most commenters wonder about his concern for foreign affairs given his lack of concern or even disdain for his district.

http://news.cincinnati.com/comments/article/20121209/NEWS0108/312090016/Where-s-Chabot-We-kind-go-interesting-places-

Interestingly, India doesn't think much of the guy's foreign policy  either

http://bharatkarnad.com/2012/02/02/art-of-deal-making/

FWIW, a lot of his foreign policy involves the U.S. military and not statesmanship.

 

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This article gives handy pronunciation tips for people's names. I know names seem to not follow phonics the way other words do but it appears I've been mispronouncing Steve Chabot's name wrong.

"Among planned speakers is U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano (Nuh-PAWL'-ih-tah-no). Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Rep. Steve Chabot (SHAH'-but) are also expected to attend."

I always used the American short A sound so the a in Chabot would sound like the a in habit.

 

http://www.10tv.com/content/stories/apexchange/2013/08/12/oh--fop-conference.html

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Ohio congressman urges help for zoo's rhino effort

 

Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Cincinnati, who chairs the House subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, recently wrote a letter with other House members to the Indonesian government asking that rhinos be shipped here for the Cincinnati Zoo's breeding program. The zoo has said it will try to mate its two rhinos in an effort to revitalize its captive breeding program, but they are brother and sister and the zoo would prefer to have rhinos from Indonesia for more genetic diversity.

 

http://www.sfgate.com/news/science/article/Ohio-congressman-urges-help-for-zoo-s-rhino-effort-4744109.php

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Steve Chabot's globetrotting is taken on at the Porktown Fishwarp. Most commenters wonder about his concern for foreign affairs given his lack of concern or even disdain for his district.

http://news.cincinnati.com/comments/article/20121209/NEWS0108/312090016/Where-s-Chabot-We-kind-go-interesting-places-

Interestingly, India doesn't think much of the guy's foreign policy  either

http://bharatkarnad.com/2012/02/02/art-of-deal-making/

FWIW, a lot of his foreign policy involves the U.S. military and not statesmanship.

 

It should be kept in mind that India has certain territorial ambitions that are thwarted by an assertive US foreign policy.

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I have said the only person who could oust Chabot is another Republican who is crazier than he is.

Just might have one.

Fred Kundrata is running as a Democrat against Jim Prues in the upcoming primary. He ran as a Republican against Wenstrup previously. His primary voting record is all R.

Anybody know what's up with this guy?

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Kindrata explains his switch.

Personally, I might ditch the Republicans but I can't imagine joining the Democrats. But then I'm not running for office.

 

Kundrata said that it was during that race that he decided he was, in fact, a Democrat.

 

“I always knew I was a moderate,’’ Kundrata said. “I thought the Republican Party was far more moderate.”

 

But, he said, he learned differently when he saw the influence of the tea party movement on the GOP and couldn’t go along with that.

 

http://wvxu.org/post/can-chabot-be-beaten-these-two-think-so

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Uncontested, Chabot got about 17,000 votes in the primary while 2 Democrats combined got about 10,000 votes. Both parties got <10% of registered voters.

Kundrata got the Dem nom.

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^ Nice shout out for "Urban Ohio" in there!

 

I met Fred a few years back when he was running in the 2nd district Republican primary. Seemed like a nice enough guy. Comes off fairly polished in this video. I wonder if he is getting any DCCC help.

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Pureval tells donors he intends to run for Chabot's seat this fall

 

pic-purevalaftab*400xx800-800-0-0.jpg

 

National Democrats probably have landed a big Cincinnati recruit in their quest to take back the U.S. House this year.

 

Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval requested donors support him if he runs for U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot’s, R-Westwood, seat in November and told them he intends to jump in the race.

 

“I think it’s happening,” said a person familiar with the calls Pureval has made who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

 

More below:

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/01/27/pureval-tells-donors-he-intends-to-run-for-chabots.html

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Pureval lives in Hyde Park, in Ohio's 2nd Congressional district, and is planning to run in the 1st against a lifetime West Sider? I don't see that going very well. If he lived downtown or in OTR or someplace actually in the district he might have a shot, but he will be painted as a yuppie Hyde Parker attempting to colonize the west side.

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I can't see why he is going to do this either. Of course he is destined for larger office, but taking on Chabot now is a lot different than taking on Chabot when Dreihaus won in 2008, plus it is not a presidential election year which will be tough. Even a West Sider like Cranley couldn't win over there.

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He may or may not have a chance of actually winning, but it would be silly for Dems to not run a qualified candidate in the a year when Dems are expected to gain back some house seats.

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Running an aggressive campaign in Hamilton county could help turnout for Dems in this area, and it could actually make a difference in the gubernatorial election.

 

Also, I think he has a chance to win if Democrats turn up in record numbers.

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2008: Steve Driehaus 52.45%, Steve Chabot 47.5%

2010: Steve Driehaus 45.99%, Steve Chabot 51.49%

 

If District 1 were the same shape today it was from 2002 to 2010, I think it would be a no-brainer that Chabot should be worried about the competition. However, due to the extreme gerrymandering that occurred after the 2010 census, the district is now much safer for Chabot, and he has gotten between 57 and 63 percent of the vote in each election since 2012.

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Warren County is a GOP stronghold. As someone who lived in that area for a decade, this is an uphill climb for anyone with a D after their name.

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^ On the flip side, the redistricting in 2010 helped make OH2 more competitive. It balanced out OH1 and OH2 - each is now about 60% Republican, 40% Democrat - which aligns well with how the Cincinnati metro area is composed as a whole. You'd have to really gerrymander the two districts in order to get more competitive results in either one. Prior to 2010, I'd say the districts unfairly lumped much of southwest Ohio's republican population into OH2.

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