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jmecklenborg

Jeddah Tower 3,281'
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  1. My brother works in trash reality TV (i.e. the husband-killing show Snapped - he and his wife sometimes go out in public wearing matching Snapped t-shirts) and knows a lot of the people who worked on this show. They "all came over from Animal Planet", he told me, so there were a lot of people with experience around the big cats. The people in reality TV with experience around exotic animals command a premium. In other reality TV news, a girl I went to OU with was a cameraman on Deadliest Catch for a few years and parlayed that into a recent Director of Photography gig for Naked and Afraid.
  2. For all of the "side hustle" talk of the 2010s, it's still pretty impossible to beat delivering pizzas. The problem with bartending is that you're up way too late to maintain a regular hours job and you have to talk to annoying regulars. Most pizza places shut down by midnight and you average around $15/hr and sometimes a lot more than that.
  3. Cranley claims that our streetcars are a health hazard, in a reprise of Jason Williams' mold accusations from a year or two ago. Kansas City is keeping theirs open for passengers, albeit with shorter hours of operation and just two of their 6 streetcars. Another thing: 10~ years ago I suggested doing a streetcar for local teams (Reds, Bengals, Xavier, UC) and local institutions like the Zoo and Museum Center. I was howled at by the purists. Instead we got weird off-orange streetcars that were haphazardly wrapped by Cincinnati Bell and the Neutered Cat charity. KC changes their streetcar exterior motifs seasonally with the sports seasons, along the lines of what I suggested. Their ridership smokes ours.
  4. The biggest fools are the lawn care guys who go all out on the mega-shovel for their mega-truck for the winter snowstorms that rarely arrive in Southwest Ohio. Back in 2008 or so, there was a year when we got a 6-7" snowfall on December 23. Anyone with a shovel on the front of their truck was getting $1,000 cash to clear a gas station and a lot more to clear the front of Toys-R-Us. I'm sure that there were a number of guys in Cincinnati who made $5,000 or more that day. That motivated a few hundred guys in Southwest Ohio to invest $5,000+ in anticipation of a similar payday that hasn't happened since.
  5. Think of all of the spring season clothes piled up in the warehouses of J.Crew, Abercrombie, etc. Hundreds of thousands of prom dresses that will never be worn. Macy's, etc., are having to decide right now how much summer and fall stuff to order. They're going to order way less than last year. So if things go back to normal, they left money on the table.
  6. Much of the quote-unquote "economy" is silly stuff paid with debt. The MBA's make fun of you if you save cash and pay for things with cash. I work in a not-glamorous industry. I get on our work computer and I see how screwed up our pending PO's are from our mysterious Chinese vendors. We buy basic, basic stuff. U.S. suppliers are going to add a third shift in a month or two, price gouge, but ultimately produce too many widgets. Suddenly the Chinese stuff will show up in Long Beach in June or July and our U.S. producers will have to sell their stock for pennies on the dollar. The whole damn thing is so predictable.
  7. County officials are predicting a 50-80% decline in sales tax revenue during the shut-down. We are going to see massive layoffs and difficulty in making bond payments. Watch them intentionally default on the Paul Brown Stadium bonds, for maximum impact.
  8. Agreed, except tons of college students are having their luxury apartments funded by living or deceased grandparents. This phenomenon didn't exist to the degree it does today during Gen X's heyday or certainly before. Meanwhile, we're seeing huge mortgage forbearance predictions:
  9. Yeah those damn millennials call it "house-hacking". Considering the fact that most duplexes are at least 50 years old, I'm not sure how they've tricked themselves into thinking they invented it.
  10. Vacation rentals are bad in this environment. Airbnb is bad in this environment. Raw land is bad in this environment. Student rentals will be very bad if classes do not return for the fall. Renting bedrooms in a single-family house or a typical multifamily is pretty tough to beat. A recent study from 2017 or 2018 that analyzed the 08-09 recession found that single-family homes did a little better than multifamily because people prefer to live in a single-family vs. an apartment if the prices are similar, which they were at the depths of the recession.
  11. People didn't walk away in 2008 all on the same day. It was a gradual meltdown during the fall.
  12. The clock is still ticking down on their webiste - is the Victory of Light conference in Sharonville still on?!!! https://victoryoflight.com/
  13. Leisure travel is going to be way down for at least a year, so good luck with no-IPO-for-you Airbnb.
  14. People are absolutely slamming on the brakes. Any projections made for tenants earlier this year, be they residential or commercial, are in the paper shredder. The collapse of Airbnb is going to drop residential rents, especially in the higher-priced cities, as short-term rentals become long-term rentals. Nobody knows if the colleges are going to have classes this fall, which is damaging student rentals. Nobody has any travel plans, and nobody knows when travel will return to projected summer 2020, let alone exceed it, so new-start hotels and hotel conversions (such as the planned new convention hotel in Cincinnati) are in trouble. Malls and strip malls that were teetering will now collapse for good.
  15. Thanks for the link. Williams struggles to smoothly read the questions COAST texts him. He's struggling to hide his squeals of delight. In this particular situation, I suspect that that Cranley is a lot less worried about the streetcar than he is his contemplated political future. He already caused one riot and now he's facing a potential second. But assuming that the great Biblical plague largely passes Cincinnati by, and Cranley emerges unscathed, the Republicans upon whom he depends for higher office will punish him mercilessly for restarting the streetcar. In short, if Cranley runs for governor, he wins zero votes by restarting the streetcar, but he loses potential republican votes if he does. So in order for the streetcar to pick up where it left off, he's going to have to make it somebody else's decision.
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