While I applaud the state leaders on this, I have just three rather curious comments to point out:
1) March 12th - "We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said. "We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."
This "because we now have community spread, it's likely 1% of the population has it" point seems to be supported by no other pandemic experts that I could find. We've ramped up testing and have been testing for 2.5 weeks since this comment. We're at <2k confirmed cases in the state. I know that we can never truly know the answer as to whether or not 100k Ohioans had covid-19 on March 12th, but certainly seems like an overestimation, by quite a bit.
March 17th - Acton says 1.1 million Americans will die, even with the measures we are taking. This, again, is supported by no other pandemic experts I could find. Fauci and Birx this weekend estimate 100k-200k deaths were plausible in the coming months. I have yet to see anyone else cite a figure close to 1.1 million.
Now, we're going to have no way of knowing if this actually pans out because we don't have widespread testing. The best way, imo, to follow this is the hospitalization rate. I've seen estimates that say we have a ~10% hospitalization rate in the U.S., which is about the best baseline we have given the lack of testing. I'm sure someone smarter than me could layer on Ohio's demographics vs. the country's and see what we might expect. But based on these projections they're citing, they're expecting ~1,000 new hospitalizations/day due to covid-19 by May.