Jump to content


Key Tower 947'
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

62 Excellent

About IAGuy39

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Thanks for that analysis Pittsburgo... What I don't understand or having a tough time in the cases on the Ohio model, there has to be some sort of lag though in the actual testing right? I don't doubt her prediction is correct, it may be a bit high, but I feel like the numbers won't end up that high per day on actual confirmed cases?
  2. The topic is seriously soooooo tired, and his logic is SOOOOOO BAD. Then on top of that why the heck would you ever ask that question after he just had to furlough so many of his employees. I mean, Jason Williams is an absolute idiot. And you think PG Sittenfeld who is going to be our next mayor or anyone on cancel is going to shut down the streetcar because a once in 100 year event happened and you could have saved 10 people from getting furloughed who are actually able to still collect probably most of their paycheck anyways? Then you go and pay back all the bonds and everything on it. I always find it funny too on this one, it hits twitter and there are literally 3 people who tweet back and forth to eachother on it. Jeff Cappel, GOCOAST, and the Cincy Buckeye Literally, not one other person tweets about it.
  3. IAGuy39


    Kind of in the similar vein of this conversation is electric cars though Elon Musk has probably done the best out of the gig tech in regards to making a tangible product. But, you start to find out how massively high tech vehicles are already, and how deep and laid out the supply chains are to make those vehicles. You can't just more or less start that stuff from scratch and not think it won't get over run by the big companies once they figure out how to do it. Unless it is something completely new, it will eventually get over ran.
  4. Exactly: The way I picture this (I was one class from a math minor with my economics degree, so I am dumb at math but generally understand basic things), is the curve being flattened doesn't mean there won't be a large "aggregate" number of people who contract coronavirus. It only means it happens over a longer period of time, so the "sum total" of people receiving is the same as it would be otherwise. Now, that would make survival rates higher overall because the hospital system could take care of people as they need to and not be overrun with delays in care. Overtime, let's say in October (before a vaccine still), that in Ohio let's say that 30% of people have had the virus and shed it (survived) and thus have immunity. Well, that will really tamp down on the spread (for example currently around say 2.5 R0 to a 1.5 R0) and thus the waves won't be as high. That is basically the premise of it (I know my numbers aren't correct I am just spitballing things). Then, once a vaccine is developed, the percentage of people that have immunity may be 50% and the virus is just circulating throughout the country in small waves here and there. Then, everyone gets the vaccine who hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus we develop herd immunity. After this, it will become like the flu. This will forever change our healthcare system. What was once the baseline of ICU beds and nurses, etc. will be a new, higher baseline to deal with the coronavirus on top of the flu every year. I don't see how this could possibly "die out" like SARS, it will probably always be in circulation one way or another. Something interesting about the 1918 flu pandemic was that older people were surviving much better than younger folks. They had found that there was some immunity back in the 1880's from a different strain of H1N1 that protected a lot of people. For the younger generation, they never experienced this strain and it was a very tough strain of H1N1. We should have some type of immunity to this coronavirus for the rest of our lives and there won't be another pandemic like this unless it is a completely different strain. God we only hope a respiratory Ebola or HIV like virus doesn't strike, that would be truly horrific, too.
  5. Yes I agree completely. I think what I was trying to get at (unsuccessfully) was that people with ARDS who need ventilators survive at a much higher rate than what we are seeing with COVID-19.
  6. AH I see, my apologies. So I wonder if just normal flu vs. COVID-19, what those rates are. I thought I saw that the NY Governor said normally cases take 3-5 days on ventilators with COVID-19 taking 14-21 days on Ventilators. I guess it didn't say if the former succumbed or not, though I did hear a podcast of an ER Director at Albert Einstein in Bronx or Queens saying they are having some success getting patients off ventilators. Maybe I think we need to look at ARDS which is what COVID-19 Causes and so does flu and other colds in vulnerable people: https://www.medicinenet.com/ards/article.htm Anyone who develops ARDS gets put on a ventilator/oxygen I believe: https://www.medscape.com/answers/165139-43273/what-are-the-mortality-rates-for-acute-respiratory-distress-syndrome-ards
  7. Thanks for doing all this! I think when flattening the curve it means "daily new infections" so the best way to see the flat curve is by doing a graph with the Y-Axis as daily new cases, not total cases. (I see you have this already on there as the blue line!) Once daily new cases are flattened for a prolonged period of time, that is when it starts to "turn the corner". The question I had and I don't know if the media has asked Dr. Acton, after Dr. Acton comments that the cases will rise to 8,000 new infections daily, is what are our numbers extrapolating out to in their models? I know they are hitting around 270 and they are undoubtedly much higher, but is that a snapshot of say 10% of what is going on? 5%?
  8. I think that may track closer for only COVID-19 than for general population (flu, other pneumonias, pneumonia from surgeries, etc.) Maybe I am wrong but that seems like a really high number for all cases, but it sounds pretty well on track for COVID-19
  9. I HOPE with all my heart that NY doesn't need that many ventilators, but why would he hold that back at all or even make that suggestion, why can't he just ship them out? Look at Italy, the serious cases (needing ICU/Ventilators) lag seriously behind the infections. We are seeing it in Spain now.
  10. Does anyone know what's going on in Michigan (Detroit maybe?) and New Orleans? Are they getting overwhelmed already or is it just looking like that will be the case?
  11. See if this posts correctly: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/24/trump-again-downplays-coronavirus-by-comparing-it-seasonal-flu-its-not-fair-comparison/#comments-wrapper
  12. Thankfully we will all get through this at some point, but anyone over 40 should try to avoid it as humanly as possible. People even over 40 are getting extremely ill, just be careful, to everyone! This disease is extremely dangerous. ^I also saw something which showed ILI was up over normal at some point last year... but, I don't think it was related to COVID-19. The reason I say this is because this disease is much different than any disease on record in terms of how it presents and the complications it causes, according to doctors. My wife was telling me today that they are finding it is specifically attacking the lung tissue as well as infecting it and causing pneumonia. It is also causing high levels of cardiac arrest. So, I don't think there would be overlap there (in an earlier ILI in the year), though I could be wrong! Scientists are fairly certain this coronavirus originated in a bat or bats and was transferred to Pangolins in a wet market in China. That Pangolin then coughed or vomited or bit or something of that nature a human... The virus was mutated enough to easily start transferring from person to person at that point.
  13. Think of it like this: Consider Italy: 1.) 8,200 deaths 2.) Confined to 1/6th of the country where they have the highest rated healthcare in the country and possibly in all of Europe, right up there 3.) Timeline of 30 days 4.) Severe movement restrictions in place Now unwind: 1.) Confinement to 1/6th of the country (considering this 6th of the country has the best hospitals and is the richest in the country and one of the richest in the EU, I will still only use a flat rate): 8,200 x 6 = 49,200 deaths 2.) Now, release the extreme movement restrictions, let's just say, that doubles the death toll, even though it probably triples it: 98,400 deaths 3.) Now, increase the days to 60 days from 30 days: 98,400 x 2 = 196,800 deaths I can guarantee you, these would be SUPER conservative estimates.
  14. It looks like Italy just reported the second highest new # of infections they have had (after 4 days of decreases), deaths decreased a bit from yesterrday but in line with the average of the last 5 days. Italy has hit their yearly average total of flu deaths per year in a span of 30 days while on complete lockdown: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
  15. Sorry, no, just the tally I think from NY state when they updated, not the whole USA. The whole USA isn't updated usually until 11 pm. I was more highlighting this part: - COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients). "We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator"
  • Create New...