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IAGuy39

Key Tower 947'
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  1. ^Don't worry Cincinnati developers have enough trouble with their own developments here, got to go through the "Mayoral Process". Don't take it personal!!
  2. That's a good question. I did a lot of reading before all this came down about the flu because I got the flu really bad this past year (it was right around Christmas). I can't remember being that ill in a long long long time. Horrible cough. Anyways, I read that if you get really sick with a certain strain you can have immunity for your life or at least some protections against whatever strain it was. I had A, which is presumably the H1N1. I may have never had it before in my life. There are so many different subtypes of strains that maybe in the future I will get H1N1 but a different strain where I would get sick but not that ill, where someone who hadn't had it may get extremely ill. Take a look at this article, pretty interesting. Talks about you can get a flu shot for a certain strain and that strain immunity wears off pretty quickly but the base stays with you. At least that's how I read it and it makes sense to me. That is why so many people apparently survived the 1918 flu that were older where younger people really suffered. Many older folks had been exposed to that type of flu before so had some developed immunity. I expect this to be the same with COVID. Perhaps at one point in your life you had a really bad cold from a coronavirus. I know I got a really bad cold a couple years ago going to Orlando for a conference. It wasn't the flu but I was down and out (still functional) but sore throat, a bit of cough, plugged up, a bit of fever, no appetite for about 5 days. Maybe that was a coronavirus so maybe if I got the coronavirus now I wouldn't have horrible symptoms. Afterwards I would have even stronger immunity. I suppose though it hasn't been proven yet that people who get a bad case of COVID-19 and survive well will have a pretty strong base immunity like they did with SARS number 1. "Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ More on COVID-19: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
  3. I was really confused but does the Mayor get like one veto on an ordinance or how did he veto that? I thought 6 was veto proof?
  4. I replied to a Jason Williams non-sensical tweet by saying: So you propose to spend $45 million dollars to scrap it where you could use that same amount to run it fare free for 10 years and make it a huge success by making small improvements. BTW the more riders there are with fare free and making it more successful will drive down the costs by increasing the ad revenue... Any replies.. Nada.. Maybe I will get some though!
  5. So the States with highest cases are in the south which may correlate to being so hot they need to be inside with AC. This is where it spreads is when you are inside. There is a massive lag on deaths vs. cases. So cases and deaths were spiking awhile ago in places like the NE USA because cases were probably spiking well before then. I think they confirmed it was something like 20% of NY State had the virus so that means 4 million people or cases. When you were seeing 1,000 deaths a day that was translated back to a month or 6 weeks before (what were the cases then)? They are testing more but there is also a big jump in cases and positive rates in those southern states. The hospitals are starting to fill up. They have better treatment now in the hospitals and better capacity to take care of them, but soon enough the deaths will start spiking up but they won't as high as NY because so far they aren't as over run and they have better treatment now. But really think of it middle of July is probably when the deaths would start to spike in those southern states. The other scary part is all these people are testing positive now but that is exponential growth, how much aren't they testing now if FL is hitting 4,000 cases that means probably another 4,000 out there with cases not tested that are passing on. They are hitting exponential growth stage and maybe it's too late now to put on the breaks with reopning, mandating masks, etc. I think something we miss in places like Dallas or Miami is that the county already has tight controls on what is going on, the governors are just puppets who shouldn't take any credit for good things and take all the credit for bad.
  6. Speaking of interstates, does anyone have any idea when the I-71 project (I would guess it's considered Red Bank to Ridge Road exit?) is supposed to be finished? I legit have not been able to find one thing on this project (cost, timeline, reasons for doing it, etc.) I am sure it is out there somewhere, I get frustrated trying to look, I assume someone here knows?
  7. It really is fascinating that Cranley stuck his foot down and never relented on it. I wonder if it will make him look bad once the easy fixes are in and it becomes a massive success if people will use that against him on his future runs for office "He refused to look at the other side and cost the city xxx while suppressing transportation options."
  8. I see the Mayor's budget has in there to stop funding the Cincinnati Streetcar and ask President Trump for loan forgiveness on the federal loans. That again, is nothing more than him flaunting to the conservative side for his run for Governor or Senator or whatever he ends up running for. He knows it won't pass but he will be able to say "Look at my record." The good thing is that once PG wins they will make the streetcar free and run efficiently.
  9. http://www.belmondnews.com/news/june-2-covid-spreads-in-clarion-and-eagle-grove/article_b95ae986-a50d-11ea-ae9d-3737dab79e9d.html My mom's very small rural county, starting to see community spread... crazy. Luckily, not in her town of Belmond yet but that is only about 10 miles from Clarion
  10. I don't understand the uproar on this. There was very small inconsistencies in the data it seemed but, I don't see how that changes the whole study. That said, even if it did change the study, wow now you go from killing more people who are on it vs just plain not helping people on it. Lastly: This drug has been used all across the USA and maybe it has some effect though it isn't scientifically significant, people would know by now. People are still dying at a super high rate and they are all on hydroxychloroquine and z-pack and zinc.
  11. I am getting concerned about my mom's county. I previously mentioned the issues with the pork plants but now the rural county is having community transmission. The numbers are 93 positive in the county. To put in perspective, the county has 13,229 people 93/13229 = 0.7% infection rate This is from a few days ago: http://www.belmondnews.com/news/covid-cases-now-total-85-in-wright-county----updated/article_89944aea-9a0d-11ea-80a6-133a77963384.html To put into perspective with Hamilton, County, OH 817,000 people * 0.7% = 5,700 cases Currently we have 2,350 cases which in reality we are about a month or more ahead of them in the pandemic.
  12. Hey, nice to see you back! I think you have to remember that there is a huge lag with both infections then symptoms then hospital then deaths. It can be 2 months from being exposed to death in some people. I think they averaged 14 days from exposure to symptoms, then another 7 days to hospitalization then another 2 weeks to death if it ends that way. So, when you look at the case counts when lockdown started, it was likely much more further spread out. You can also assume that the cases are going to actually rise a bit and plateau though it is hard to account for everyone now being dilligent in washing hands, not touching face, social distancing and wearing masks. This will likely drive down the numbers in what otherwise if you kept everything constant be an instant rebound. So, I think what we will see is pretty consistent numbers now moving forward. Perhaps they rise a bit. But, this is what America is choosing. That doesn't mean you can't be super cautious, etc. If it starts to get out of hand they are going to shut things down again trust me. Also, I do believe the sun helps so we should expect as most universities are now expecting to have a second wave as we start moving more indoors again. That could also happen right away once school starts but the hope is that they controlled the local / community spread enough that is is non-existant though I HIGHLY doubt that. I am a little bit more concerned because I saw 3 Kroger Employees at the Springview Village Kroger tested positive, that means there is community spread moving around in that area of town. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2020/05/14/kroger-employees-at-cincinnati-store-test-positive.html My wife is due in early July so we won't be doing anythign and probably nothing for a long time, not worth the risk, so it really will be a spectrum on what you believe is risk vs reward. If it starts to spike again you can guarantee things will start getting shut down again.
  13. Sorry, I've got to call BS Straw man conservative blame point on the bolded part: No one really based the shutdown on a damn model. They based it on: Look at China welding their country people in their own homes, or Italy being completely overrun by cases. Dr. Fauci said it like 50 times "I don't believe in models, they aren't very accurate and are only as good as the variables you put in, and the variables right now are pretty much unknown" or something to that affect. Laura Ingraham went after him about that argument and he shut it down in like 2 seconds: "All you have to do is look to China who used draconian measures to stop the spread or talk with Doctors in Italy to know this situation was very serious and necessitated the measures we used." Besides that point, this whole argument is absolutely horrific logic that would get danced on if we were in a court of law trying it. Ask yourself this question: how horrible would this be if there were no shutdown measures? NY State has 20% infection rate with 28,300 deaths. Multiply by 3.75 to get to herd immunity 75% that equals: 106,125 people 106,125 NY'ers dead / 19,450,000 NY'ers in the state = 0.5% fatality rate of population at herd immunity 327,000,000 Americans * 0.5% = 1,635,000 deaths The math isn't really that hard. Edit: Looked up the Dr. Fauci comments, the link doesn't work for some reason, on Fox News, maybe they took it down? Weird: https://www.foxnews.com/media/fauci-coronavirus-mitigation-programs-models-china-italy oronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci weighs in on criticism over coronavirus models. Coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci told "The Story with Martha MacCallum" Friday that he has always been skeptical of models projecting the toll of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. "Models are only as good as the assumptions that you put into the model," Fauci. "And those assumptions that start off when you don't have very much data at all, or the data you have is uncertain, then you put these assumptions in and you get these wide ranges of calculations of what might happen." CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE "But then as you start to accumulate data, [...] that's real data likely being influenced heavily by the mitigation programs that you put in the physical separations, when real data comes in, then data in my mind always trumps any model," Fauci added. As of Friday evening, the influential model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evauation (IHME) at the University of Washington was projecting that 61,545 Americans would die of coronavirus by Aug. 4 of this year, assuming the practice of "full social distancing" was kept up through the end of May. Last week, the IHME model had projected more than 93,000 Americans would die of the virus over the same period. Fauci made it clear that the early modeling wasn't the reason for "strong mitigation programs," but rather the high death tolls in China and Italy, two of the nations hardest-hit by the virus. THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK STATE-BY-STATE "It isn't the model or the result of the model that really led to the decision to have such strong mitigation programs, such as physical separation," Fauci said. "You don't even have to look at any model. Just take a look at what happened in China. Take a look at what happened in northern Italy, how the hospitals were completely overrun and the draconian methods that had to be taken in China to turn down their outbreak." President Trump on Friday said he believes the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic will be "substantially less" than the 100,000 projected last week, arguing the country is nearing the peak of the outbreak. *** He also said this sometime in February too. No one really was relying on models to shut things down, they were relying on what was happening elsewhere and then using models as more proof to why they were doing it. Because before they started throwing out models people were saying "Ah that's Italy man they have horrible healthcare and comorbidities that will never be the USA", etc. Then they start getting more proof using models to show how dangerous this is to get peole to shut up, then people say "See!!! It wasn't as bad as that model!!!" but then COMPLETELY fail to do the simple freaking math I did above.
  14. Speaking of middle class, this whole situation wouldn't be nearly as bad financially if this administration didn't set up literally everything to increase the stock market values at the expense of the middle class.
  15. People are getting fed up in Iowa, with the "dis"information from the Governor's office, if you want to read more about it, this from the state's second largest newspaper (Independent, different from Gannett Owned Des Moines Register). My dad made a comment something along the lines of "How can you tell everyone to wear masks, to go into quarantine/isolation if you are exposed, then you yourself go to the White House, get exposed while not wearing a mask, then not go into quarantine yourself": https://www.thegazette.com/subject/opinion/staff-editorial/gov-reynolds-is-obscuring-iowas-covid-19-death-toll-20200514 https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/health/as-iowa-reopens-states-coronavirus-data-remains-elusive-20200518
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